Archive for Speed Plot

C.C. Absolutely Dominant

graphs_404_pitcher_daily_4_full140280_20060523.pngIn his second consecutive complete game, C.C. Sabathia shutout the twins while striking out 8 and allowing only 6 hits. He’s been brilliant since returning from the D.L. and has allowed only 7 runs in 40 plus innings of work, giving him a 0.92 ERA in his past 5 starts.

The 26 year old is proving that his stellar end to the 2005 season was no fluke and has picked up exactly where he left off last season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) has been in “elite” territory for the past two-plus months he’s been healthy. Even the most devout C.C. skeptic will have trouble debunking his recent success.


Corey Patterson Batting Over .300

graphs_300_batter_season_5_full140280_20060523.pngMy whipping boy in the off season went 3-3 with a home run, 2 stolen bases, and 2 walks last night to raise his batting average to just over .300 for the season. Corey Patterson must have made some significant changes to go from hitting a horrible .215 to a good .306 in just one season, right?

Well, the main thing Patterson has done is actually make contact with the ball. Last season he struck out in 26% of his at-bats and this season he’s only striking out 17% of the time. However, it’s not all good news since he still can’t (or won’t) decipher when pitches are in the strike zone. He chases “bad pitches” over 30% of the time making him one of the 10 most aggresive swingers in baseball. While he has made real improvement and can probably be elevated from “whipping boy” status, I just don’t buy him as a .300 hitter.


Jake Peavy Ks 16 Batters in Loss

graphs_1051_pitcher_daily_2_full140280_20060522.pngLast night Jake Peavy struck out 16 batters in the Padres 3-1 loss to the Braves. The last time anyone struck out 16 or more was way back in September of 2004 when Mark Prior mowed down 16 Reds. This also marked a career high for Peavy and was the 12th ten-plus strikeout performance of his career.

Yawn… another start, another good performance for the soon to be 25 year old. He’s struck out 35 batters in his last 19 innings while issuing just 4 walks. His strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) have now returned to just about where they were last season. Yeah, he’s pretty good.


Yankees Tee-Off Against Keith Foulke

graphs_231_pitcher_season_4_full140280_20060521.pngWith an 8 run lead in the 9th, Keith Foulke was brought in for mop-up duty and allowed back-to-back home runs to Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada. He ended up with 4 earned runs on the night raising his ERA from 3.47 to 4.81.

Despite the poor, meaningless outing, Foulke appears to have mostly returned to his 2004-self after battling a knee injury all of last season. He’s striking out about 7 batters per 9 innings and walking just over 1 per 9 innings, giving him a career high strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB). Too bad it’s going to take about 10 scoreless innings for his ERA to return to where it was.


Mike Maroth Owns 5th Best ERA

graphs_1508_pitcher_season_9_full140280_20060521.pngWho would have thought that nearly two months into the season Mike Maroth would have the 5th best ERA in baseball with a 5-2 record to boot? To get right to the point, there’s only one graph you have to look at with Maroth: his left-on-base percentage (LOB%) graph.

Every stat this year except for his ERA and LOB% has shown either no significant change or have been worse than last season. In other words, he’s not really pitching any better than last year, but has been the benefactor of, dare I say, luck? Barring any significant change in his strikeout or walk habits, expect his LOB% to drift back to earth causing his ERA to be more in-line with his career average (4.68).


Ichiro Riding 15 Game Hitting Streak

graphs_1101_batter_daily_10_full140280_20060521.pngLast night’s 3-5 performance bumped Ichiro Suzuki’s batting average up to .314 for the season and marks the 15th game on his current hitting streak.

Over the past month or so, he’s seen a drastic rise in the number of groundballs (green) he’s hit, bringing him back to his typical batted-ball profile. Furthermore, he’s been beating out these same grounders for singles over 20% of the time, the highest at any point in his career. With his groundball percentage nearing a career high, it’s doubtful he’ll reach last year’s 15 home run mark, but I don’t see anyone complaining. Looks like this could be one of his “better” years in the average department.


Aramis Ramirez Ends Home Run Drought

graphs_1002_batter_season_6_full140280_20060521.pngAfter going homer-less in his previous 41 plate appearances, Aramis Ramirez hit home runs in his first two at-bats in the Cubs 7-4 victory of the White Sox. The two dingers resulted in a 26.6 Win Probability Added (WPA); his largest contribution on the season.

While struggling through back injuries he batted a horrible .197 in April, but is hitting a much better (though mediocre) .263 this month. Last season he had a scorching June compiling 35 hits for a .363 average including 7 home runs. Oddly enough, it appears he’s seeing the ball better than ever as shown by the dramatic increase in his walk-to-strikeout ratio (BB/K). Assuming his back troubles are over, it looks like he’s primed for a serious hot streak.


Scott Kazmir Finds Consistent Control

graphs_4897_pitcher_daily_3_full140280_20060520.pngScott Kazmir shut out the Marlins for 8 innings while striking out 11 batters and walking just one. Today’s win was his 7th; tying him for the league lead.

Is there any pitcher hotter than Kazmir right now? Over his past 5 starts he has a 0.77 ERA with 37 strikeouts and just 4 walks. He’s always been able to strike batters out, but he’s managed to cut his walks per 9 innings (BB/9) almost in half this year. With his wildness under control, starts like this are going to become old hat.


Speed Plot – May 14th, 2006

Daily Best

Jeff Francoeur – If a walk-off grand slam doesn’t get you top honors, what does? It wasn’t an “ultimate grand slam“, but I doubt any Braves fans are complaining. After hitting just .210 in April, he’s managed to raise his batting average to .250 by hitting a much better .310 this month. Back on May 9th he completed the daunting task of drawing his first walk of the season. Last year it took him 129 plate appearances to draw a walk and this year it took him 135 appearances.

Jon Lieber – Holding the National League’s top offense (the Reds) hitless through 7 innings was quite impressive and lowered his ERA to 5.50 on the season. A batting average on balls in play (BABIP) over .350 and a left-on-base percentage (LOB%) of 55.9% will tend to balloon your ERA. This start was more along the lines of what Lieber is capable of.

Daily Worst

Johnny Peralta – Going 0 for 4 and grounding into a double play with runners on first and second in a close game is the perfect way to make the worst list. He’s been dissapointing so far this year despite having a decent BABIP and a higher line-drive percentage. He’s been making slight corrections to his swing which will hopefully snap his slump. Don’t be surprised if the hits start falling soon.

Danys Baez – It takes some real skill to accumulate a -95 WPA over just one game. That makes him responsible for almost two losses! Baez’s has really cut down on his walks this year, but 5 blown saves are the only thing people will see. Hang in there until Eric Gagne returns.

The 5 Players I Feel Like Writing About

Jason Schmidt – He’s now thrown back-to-back complete games, something he hasn’t done since 2003. The strikeouts aren’t coming as frequently as they once were, but I’ll take a pitcher that can strike out 13 batters in 18 innings while issuing no walks, anyday. Keep a close eye on his walks; they will be key for him this season.

Todd Jones – Since coming back in late April, he’s converted 9 out of 10 save chances. He’s keeping his walks just as low as they were last season, but his strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) have nearly been cut in half from 7.6 to 4.4. That’s way below the acceptable level for closers and even Bob Wickman strikes batters out more often! As long as he’s converting saves he’ll hang onto the role, but I really feel Fernando Rodney is the better option.

Placido Polanco – While we’re on the topic of Tigers, Polanco has abandoned his patience and has starting to chase pitches out of the strike zone over 30% of the time. Last year he chased pitches just 16% of the time. The 14% increase has resulted in him drawing just one walk all season. Furthermore, his batting average and BABIP have returned back to his career norms. A repeat of last season’s .331 average is probably wishful thinking.

Carlos Lee – Could this guy please get a little more attention? He’s now batting just over .300 with 15 home runs; second only to Albert Pujols‘ 19. The secret to his success has been a bit more patience at the plate. He’s chasing bad pitches about 5% less and it’s resulted in a 5% decrease in his strikeout rate. It’s easier to make contact when you swing at hittable pitches.

Roy Halladay – Jason Schmidt was not the only pitcher to throw back-to-back complete games this week. Halladay limited the Angels and Devil Rays to just 1 run each while striking out 9 and walking 2. I think Halladay’s great, but if he just becomes complacent with his ground ball inducing powers and stops striking batters out, he’s in danger of turning into Tim Hudson.


Speed Plot – May 12th, 2006

Daily Best

Nick Swisher and Troy Glaus – Both players hit homeruns in consecutive at-bats and now sit tied for second in the AL with 12 homeruns. On the year, Swisher has a higher average, a higher walk-rate, and a higher slugging percentage making him one of the most valuable hitters so far.

Jake Peavy – In a season where offense is through the roof, Peavy’s 13 strikeout performance last night rivals Javier Vazquez’s perfecto-bid for most exciting pitching performance of the year. Over seven innings he faced 24 batters. Only four reached base and only eight managed to put the ball in play.

Daily Worst

Marlon Byrd – A night with four strikeouts is always impressive, even if it takes six at-bats to do it. Byrd was a hotshot prospect for the Phillies a couple years ago, but he hasn’t figured out major league pitching yet, as evidence by his .378 career slugging percentage

The Nationals’ Bullpen – After the Nationals’ offense scored three runs in the top of the 11th inning, John Rauch, Felix Rodriguez, and Joey Eischen managed to give up four runs and the game while recording only one out.

The 5 Players I Feel Like Writing About

Bronson Arroyo – Arroyo deserves a full column at some point, but I can’t help but mentioning last night’s performance: 8 IP, no runs, 8 strikeouts, and no walks. He would have had his major league-leading sixth win if David Weathers hadn’t blow the ninth-inning lead.

Corey Koskie – Koskie hit a homerun last night, bringing his season line to .295/.362/.516. His on-base percentage is actually just lower than his career line, but he’s slugging at a career best pace. After a few years out of favor with the Twins and Blue Jays, the Brewers seem to have made a great pickup on the cheap.

Jeff Kent – Kent’s 38 years old and it’s starting to show. Not only has his batting average plummeted to .222, but his isolated power has been cut in half since his prime. The Dodgers were counting on another solid season from Kent in order to contend, but it looks like neither will happen.

Mark Loretta – After an awful start to the season, I began to wonder if Kevin Towers knew something about Loretta that the rest of us didn’t. Over his last seven games, however, he has 17 hits to bring his season average up to .280. His batting average on balls in play is still way below his career mark, giving hope for even more improvement.

Matt Lecroy – After Brian Schneider gave up six stolen bases to the Reds the night before, Lecroy managed to hold them to five last night. If Schneider, a decent defensive catcher, struggled to control the Red’s running game, is it really a smart move to let Lecroy, who is not a decent defensive catcher, take a shot at it?