For the third time in four years, Mike Trout finished as a runner-up MVP. Trout had a compelling case, but Josh Donaldson was a deserving winner. Even if you think Trout should have won, you’re probably fine with Donaldson winning. More than one guy can deserve it, after all.

Regardless, the outcome of an award vote doesn’t change what Trout’s achieved through his first four seasons. And what Trout’s done through his first four seasons is unprecedented. Already, he’s arguably accomplished more than any player in history through his age-23 season. Already, he’s had a top-10 all-time four-year peak, and those are the only years we’ve seen him have. The next question, naturally, is a biggie. Don’t lie — you’ve thought about it. Even if you’re a skeptic, it’s a thought that’s crossed your mind, if even for a fleeting moment.

“What if this guy is the best that’s ever done it?”

What if? Never hurts to wonder. Could Trout be the greatest? If he ends up as the greatest, what would that even take? What would that career look like? What could that career look like?

The all-time leader in position player Wins Above Replacement, according to our leaderboards, is Babe Ruth, at 168.4 WAR. Let’s have a little fun.
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Last week, MLB saw two of their first big trades of the winter, as both the Red Sox and Angels gave up significant pieces of their farm system to acquire upgrades to their big league roster; Boston acquired closer Craig Kimbrel, while Anaheim landed shortstop Andrelton Simmons. In both cases, the acquisitions are not rentals, as Kimbrel is signed for two more years with a team option for a third, while Simmons is under contract through the 2020 season. To get high-quality players with multiple years of team control, both teams had to give up significant prospects from their farm system.

For the Red Sox, that meant parting with a pair of consensus Top 100 prospects in outfielder Manny Margot and shortstop Javier Guerra, along with a couple of lower tier add-ons. For the Angels, the cost was left-handed pitcher Sean Newcomb, the team’s first round pick in the 2014 draft and the most coveted player they had in the minor leagues; they also sent along with a second pitching prospect and shortstop Erick Aybar, who had been their everyday player at the position for the last seven years.

Both teams surrendered talent they would rather have kept, but felt strongly enough about the players they were receiving to make the trades anyway. And both teams did get very good players, among the best at their respective positions. But in terms of what these deals did to the remains of their respective farm systems, the situations could not be more different.

In making the Kimbrel deal, Dombrowski referenced the Red Sox loaded farm system, which has regularly been seen as one of the best in baseball.

“You don’t ever like to give up young talent,” Dombrowski said. “We think they’re very talented individuals. But I do think that (because of) the good job that the people at player development, scouting, international operations have done, we do have some depth at those positions. And we do have some other quality young players that we were asked about repeatedly.”

Those quality young players Dombrowski is referring to? They are almost certainly Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts, the team’s pair of 23-year-old big league cornerstones, who happen to play center field and shortstop, respectively, the same positions that Margot and Guerra are playing in the minor leagues. With those positions locked down at the Major League level for the foreseeable future, Margot and Guerra were seen as somewhat extraneous to the team’s long-term plans, and were likely going to be traded at some point. The primary justification for paying a very high price for Kimbrel is that the team’s depth of prospects allowed them to make a trade like this, because even after surrendering good young talent, they have other good young talent to help them keep their future looking bright.

The Angels are in a very different situation; Newcomb was essentially their only prospect of significance, now that Andrew Heaney has too much time in the majors to qualify as a prospect. Roberto Baldoquin, the team’s top-rated prospect after Heaney and Newcomb heading into the 2015 season, just hit a meager .235/.266/.294 in A-ball, to give you some idea of the organization’s current crop of hitting prospect. With Newcomb, the team’s farm system would have been rated as one of the worst in baseball; without him, it unquestionably is so.

So, relative to their stock of future utility to the organization, the Angels probably gave up a greater percentage of their inventory than the Red Sox did, even though it’s pretty clear the package San Diego got for Kimbrel is a better one than the Braves got for Simmons. But even though Newcomb had more utility to his own organization than Margot or Guerra did, I can’t agree with the notion that highly talented prospects should be viewed as having significantly diminished value to an organization simply because of the presence of other highly talented players, even other talented players at the same position.

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Among the comments made by Jerry Dipoto in his conversation with David Laurila at the recently concluded GM meetings, one finds a fascinating statement by the new Mariners general manager on the topic of identifying undervalued offense, and nine things that successful hitters do.

We’ve defined a nine-point criteria of what we believe a quality at-bat consists of. If you do those things, you can play here.

What a delicious quote. What could those nine points be?

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Say this for new Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons: He makes things pretty easy. You can look at the regular numbers, or you can look at the more complicated numbers, or you can just watch video of Simmons playing so you can evaluate him with your own eyes. It doesn’t matter, because you’ll always arrive at the same place. This is a player who hasn’t yet been a very good hitter. But this is also a tremendously skilled defender. Simmons is obviously an excellent shortstop. He’s pretty obviously one of the best defensive talents in baseball right now.

For however much complaining there is that we still aren’t great at measuring defensive performance, Simmons isn’t a shortstop to be debated. This is an open and closed case — he’s great. He’s great by observation. He’s great by reputation. He’s great by the way he’s discussed within the industry.

And the numbers are there. Since Simmons broke into the league, he’s been the game’s best defensive shortstop according to Defensive Runs Saved. He’s been the game’s best defensive shortstop according to Ultimate Zone Rating. He’s been the game’s best defensive shortstop according to Inside Edge, another data source. And he’s been the game’s best defensive shortstop according to the Fan Scouting Report, a project that asks baseball fans every year to make their own defensive evaluations. This intro has probably gone on too long, because it’s not like you need to be convinced. No one needs to be convinced about Andrelton Simmons.

Still, there’s the concern you can’t get away from. It’s concern that in part led to the Braves trading Simmons in the first place. The defense is always there, but hitting numbers are always more visible, and Simmons hasn’t been an offensive threat. Last season he slugged .338; the season before he slugged .331. He doesn’t seem to be improving very much, and there are people who wonder if he hits enough. People who think the offense is a big problem, no matter what happens on the other side of the ball.

Let’s talk quickly about Simmons’ hitting.

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Last night, the Braves traded Andrelton Simmons to the Angels for Erick Aybar and a couple of pitching prospects. While it’s likely that Atlanta’s staff made this deal primarily to acquire Sean Newcomb, a big left-hander with high-end stuff and strikeout rates to match, I think it’s fair to categorize this return as surprisingly light. Newcomb is brimming with upside, but he’s still a pitching prospect who hasn’t yet figured out how to throw strikes on a regular basis, and has made all of seven starts above A-ball. He could figure things out and become an ace, or he could go the Archie Bradley path, where the stuff declines before the command gets better, and the Braves could end up with little to show for trading away the best defensive player on the planet.

But therein lies the rub. While everyone agrees that Simmons is a great defensive player, the Braves don’t appear particularly interested in betting on elite defenders aging particularly well. They balked at Jason Heyward’s salary requests in long-term negotiations, then traded him last winter, rather than keeping a 25 year old star outfielder around as a core building block. Now, for the second time in as many years, the Braves have traded elite defense in a young player for pitching potential, seemingly believing that it is easier to find a good defender with offensive question marks than a power arm who racks up strikeouts.

And as I noted yesterday, there might be some logic to that idea, given that there’s evidence that defensive skills peak earlier than offensive skills. The athleticism that allows a player to make plays that his peers can’t make is more vital for defensive value than hitting skills, and it’s possible (and probably even likely) that the Braves saw the potential for Simmons to lose value in the near future, if his defensive value dipped and his offense didn’t improve to offset the decline. So, it’s probably worth exploring how previous elite defenders have aged, and see if we can find support for the idea that the Braves were selling high before a coming decline.

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Editor’s note: Jeff wrote this as an InstaGraphs post when the trade was announced, but when I got around to looking at it, I noticed he wrote almost 900 words. That’s a normal-length FanGraphs post, so I’m moving it to the front page. I’m leaving the IG post up in its original place so that your comments will be retained, however.

UPDATE: Angels also getting catcher Jose Briceno. Briceno is 23, and he spent last year in high-A, but he also posted an OPS of .482, and, yes, that’s a 4, and no, that’s not a mistake. Of course, he’s hit better in the past. He’s been a decent prospect in the past. Right now, his career needs to be rescued.

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The day began with thoughts on a potential Andrelton Simmons blockbuster. As the day ends, half of what was discussed has come true — Simmons has been traded, and even to the general Los Angeles area. He just hasn’t been traded to the Dodgers, or for Yasiel Puig.

Rather, Simmons’ new teammates will be the rest of the Angels. And, headed to the Braves in exchange: Erick Aybar, Sean Newcomb, Chris Ellis, and a bit of money.

#Braves trade Simmons to #Angels for Newcomb, Ellis, Aybar and about $3M

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) November 12, 2015

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The playoffs are over, and as balls and strikes go, the tournament wasn’t overly controversial. There were some misses, sure. There was that called strike against Ben Revere at nearly the worst possible time. That wasn’t great, and I’m sure there are some Blue Jays fans who are still fuming. Shortly before that, there was a similar called strike against Dioner Navarro. Rough inning. As for called balls, the Royals didn’t love that one called for Jose Bautista in a full count. There are always going to be arguments, since non-lasered humans are expected to call the strike zone with laser-like precision, but these playoffs could’ve been worse. The controversial calls were at least close to the borders. The calls were forgivable.

The controversial calls aren’t always close to the borders. Sometimes the calls are just bad. Like, take this called ball — according to PITCHf/x, this was 1.3 inches from the center of the strike zone at the front of home plate. Imagine if this had taken place in the playoffs, and led to a rally?

1.3 inches. That means part of the baseball passed through the very center of the zone. Doesn’t seem like a ball like that should ever take place. And this wasn’t even the worst called ball of the season. No, that one was thrown by Jeff Samardzija, literally one day later, on August 19. Samardzija’s called ball was measured at 1.2 inches from the center of the strike zone.

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We’ve gone exactly one day without baseball, so it’s probably time to write another post about Mike Trout.

The framing device I used the first time I wrote this post was LeBron James. I’m a Cavaliers fan, and when I’d written the post, LeBron James played for the Miami Heat and I didn’t think I’d ever see him play for Cleveland again. When LeBron first left for Miami, I was sad, of course, but the initial sadness was simply “my favorite team is bad again.” The later sadness, the sadness that stuck, was the crippling fear that I’d taken James’ time in Cleveland, his truly historic time, for granted. That I hadn’t appreciated him enough. That I’d gotten too used to how incredible he was, rather than being thankful each and every day that he existed, and that I could watch him do the things he does, feeling pride that he represented my city. The thing about realizing you took something special for granted is, you almost never get another chance to re-do it. I got lucky with LeBron.

Mike Trout just posted another nine-win season, and he’s likely to finish as runner-up MVP yet again. Another indisputably historic season that won’t be recognized as such at year’s end. It’s not anyone’s fault, really. The first year, Miguel Cabrera won a freaking Triple Crown. The next year, he had an even better season. Then Trout had his “worst” year yet and finally got his MVP. This year, Josh Donaldson will absolutely deserve the MVP he most likely wins. More than one person can, and usually does, deserve it, after all.

It feels like Bryce Harper helped take some of the shine away from Trout this season. Perhaps rightfully so. But there should be enough shine to go around for the both of them. Not to say Trout goes unappreciated. Fans of the game recognize that he’s special. They recognize Harper is special. But do we appreciate them enough? Is it possible to appreciate them enough? Baseball hasn’t seen a pairing like Trout and Harper since Mays and Mantle in the mid-50’s and, no, that’s not an exaggeration. Maybe I’m overstating it, but I guess I’m just terrified that, down the road, once the inevitable darkness that is Father Time has shown up and done his bidding on Trout and Harper, that too many people will look back at what we once had the same way I’d looked back on LeBron before I was lucky enough to be given a second chance. Wondering why they didn’t go to more games, wondering why they took something so special for granted. See Mike Trout play as often as you can. Watch a few Angels games on television, even if you’re not a fan. Drive an hour or two to a ballpark, if you have to.

One of the great things about modern baseball statistics is the ability to compare across generations. It’s what makes wRC+ so invaluable. Fifty percent better than league average will always be fifty percent better than league average. Nine Wins Above Replacement now is worth the same as Nine Wins Above Replacement in 1940. The greats of years past have a legacy. The players of our age don’t yet have that and, on the fly, it can be hard to contextualize what the accomplishments of today’s players mean. Where they stand in the bigger picture, and what their eventual legacy may become.
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As Melvin Upton steps to the plate and readies for the pitch, Buster Posey appraises him. First, he looks at his feet as they dig in. Gradually, his eyes move up Upton’s body, brazenly staring as he takes in information. Down pops the sign as the catcher moves his attention to the pitcher.

It’s not just idle ogling. He’s looking for clues. Which ones?

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While working on something Erasmo Ramirez said — that his slider was always in the zone anyway, so he should probably use it to steal strikes rather than for swinging strikes — it became obvious that breaking pitches are much less effective in the zone than out when it comes to swinging strikes. Curves, in particular, are much better outside the zone. You get about one third of the whiffs on a curve in the zone as you do outside of the zone.

Separately, I’m working on a piece for The Hardball Times Annual about command. In it, a few pitchers talk about the difficulty of commanding breaking pitches. “Nobody throws anything that’s truly straight,” is how Trevor Bauer put it.

While sorting the in and out of zone whiff rates, and thinking about command, it came to me that the two are related. Maybe that’s a duh, but a big part of quantifying command is the problem of breaking balls and changeups and their movement. A breaking ball in the zone may often be a hung breaking ball, which contributes to the lower whiff rates.

Let’s take a look at the pitchers that have the most disparate results on their non fastballs inside and outside the zone first, and then try to find a way to spot these pitchers by movement.

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