Episode 288
Prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel discusses players he’s seen — including, among others, pitching prospects Marcus Stroman (Blue Jays), Lance McCullers (Astros), and Jose Fernandez (Marlins) — and the larger concerns each raises with regard to prospect analysis generally.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 38 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

In a vacuum, you could probably make a decent enough case in favor of exchanging Alex White for Wilton Lopez. As Jeff wrote last week, Lopez is the game’s most extreme high GB/low BB reliever, and this skillset allows him to be an effective late-inning reliever. Lopez is a quality arm, and he can be a key piece of a good bullpen. Meanwhile, White has been pretty lousy during his first 150 innings in the big leagues, and there’s a decent chance that he ends up in the bullpen himself. As one person noted to me on Twitter last night, the Rockies traded a guy I’ve projected as a reliever in the past for a better reliever.

There’s just a few problems here. The primary one regards the health of Lopez’s right arm. The reported deal with the Phillies that never materialized last week apparently included Philadelphia having some significant concern over his elbow, and a couple of folks here in Nashville have said that Lopez flunked a physical at the trade deadline that nuked a trade for him back in July. When there’s smoke, there’s often fire, and the fact that Lopez spent a month of the 2012 season on the DL with an elbow issue suggests that there’s almost certainly something there worth worrying about. Without access to the medical information and people who can intelligently interpret it, we can’t say to what degree Lopez is damaged goods, but it is clear that other teams have serious concerns about how long Lopez’s elbow is going to last before he needs surgery.

However, predicting injuries isn’t something anyone has mastered, so let’s just assume for now that Lopez is going to stay healthy. Even with that assumption, it’s not clear that this is a significant upgrade for Colorado relative to simply shifting White to the bullpen.

Read the rest of this entry »

The list of pitchers Alan Ashby caught in 17 big-league seasons from 1973 to 1989 is an impressive one. The former Astros, Blue Jays and Indians backstop called games for some of the most dominant pitchers of his era. He also put fingers down for some pretty colorful characters. Now 61 years old, he works as a radio broadcaster for the Toronto Blue Jays.

Ashby talked about catching some of baseball’s finest during a visit to Fenway Park earlier this summer. A primary focus was “the best of the best,” which included Nolan Ryan’s fastball — not the most explosive he caught — and Mike Scott’s mystery pitch.

——

David Laurila: Who were the smartest pitchers you caught?

Alan Ashby: “Let me start backwards on that one. Guys like Nolan Ryan — who I caught for nine years — there just aren’t many guys like Nolan Ryan. Nolan is a street-smart guy, a bright guy, but it didn’t take a lot of smarts with his stuff. He could pitch — and did for much of career — away, away, away. Let’s just say he was smart enough to know he could do that, because nobody could hit the stuff.

“Guys who had to move it around, like a Vern Ruhle or a Ken Forsch, had to utilize guile on the mound. If that translates into intelligence and smarts, so be it. A lot of guys who don’t have good stuff are applying everything they’ve got, intelligence-wise and otherwise. I could come up with a list of names of guys to put on that list.

“The guys that generally aren’t on the list are people like Nolan Ryan, J.R. Richard and Joe Niekro. They had very unique stuff. Mike Scott, in his heyday, was another.”

DL: How did Ryan’s fastball differ from Richard’s fastball? Read the rest of this entry »

A couple of minor transactions have floated by mostly un-noticed on the wires recently, and probably for good reason. Mickey Storey was claimed by the Yankees from the Astros, and Cory Burns was traded to the Rangers from the Padres for a player to be named someday. Neither of these relievers cost much, nor will they end up closing for their new teams. They’re mostly just flotsam pieces of spaghetti to fling at the wall. There’s a link between these two relievers, and it’s a thread that will run through most fungible, cheaply acquired players in baseball — neither reliever has a fastball.

Read the rest of this entry »

There’s a fun game I’ve enjoyed playing, called Spot The Half-Decent Astro. It’s challenging, because there haven’t been very many of them, and because I could never get anyone else to play too. Did you know that the 2012 Astros’ team leader in home runs was Justin Maxwell? Do you know anything about Justin Maxwell, aside from his name and that fact? The Astros have been dreadful for a reason — they haven’t had very many good players. One of their few good players has been reliever Wilton Lopez. Now Wilton Lopez isn’t an Astro anymore.

Basically. The Astros and Phillies have unofficially swung a trade, sending Lopez to Philadelphia, and sending a prospect or two or more to Houston. Without knowing anything about the prospect(s), it’s a sensible trade for Houston, because what they don’t need right now are good relievers. And it’s a sensible trade for Philadelphia, because it makes them better now and the Phillies are all about the now.

Read the rest of this entry »

Early Sunday morning, Twitter was abuzz with news that the Dodgers and Fox Sports West had agreed to a 25-year broadcast deal valued between $6 billion and $7 billion. By Sunday afternoon, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times had confirmed the outline of the deal, but cautioned that the Dodgers and Fox were still negotiating, with a November 30 deadline looming.

As I explained last week in this post, the parties’ existing agreement gave Fox an exclusive, 45-day window in which to negotiate a new deal to govern the 2014 season and beyond. Hence, the November 30 deadline. If an agreement isn’t inked by Friday, the Dodgers must submit a final offer to Fox by December 7. Fox then has 30 days to accept or reject the offer. If Fox rejects the offer, the Dodgers are free to negotiate with whomever they want.

However the negotiations play out, it’s clear now that the Dodgers’ local TV revenue is about to enter the stratosphere. A 25-year deal worth between $6 billion and $7 billion would net the Dodgers between $240 million and $280 million per year. Per year. That’s more than any team has ever spent on player salaries in a single season — even the Yankees. And it’s nearly double the amount of local TV revenue pulled in annually by the team with the second-most lucrative deal — the other Los Angeles team (the Angels) — which entered into a 17-year deal with Fox Sports West worth $2.5 billion.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 276
Prospect analyst Marc Hulet discusses his first four organizational top-15 prospect lists for the 2012-13 offseason, with particular attention to Daniel Vogelbach (Cubs), Dillon Maples (also Cubs), Matt Szczur (also-also Cubs), and Garin Cecchini (Red Sox). Additionally, Hulet previews his Astros top-15 list (with specific notes on George Springer and Nolan Fontana) — and shares some material/analysis that’s frigging exclusive (!) to FanGraphs Audio.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 47 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

It’s the bottom of the eighth inning. Men are on first and third base, there’s one out and your team is down by one run. The opposing team has one of the best ground-ball pitchers on the hill, and the infield is playing back and is looking for a double play. All you need is a fly ball to tie the game and significantly swing your chances of winning.

So who do you want at the plate?

It’s likely that the opposing manager will either bring in a ground-ball specialist or just tell the pitcher to stay away from pitches that could be hit in the air to the outfield. Knowing who you’d want to hit requires an understanding of what pitches are the most likely to induce a ground ball — and what hitters manage to hit fly balls against those pitches most often.

Read the rest of this entry »

Carlos Correa was the recent first overall pick and while I didn’t see him as an amateur, he showed big time tools in the GCL and again in instructs. His projectable 6’4, 190 pound frame immediately stands out with broad shoulders, tapered torso and long limbs. Correa is an outstanding athlete to coordinate his body to play shortstop, which he does well now with a plus arm, solid footwork and good instincts. He’s an average runner that can be a little slow out of the box and will only slow as he fills out his frame, so Correa seems destined for third base, where he would be easily above average.

The real is how well Correa’s big hitting tools will play in games. After seeing number two overall pick Byron Buxton in Twins instructs and as an amateur, Correa is at about the same juncture polish-wise, although is 9 months younger. Correa is fooled too often by professional pitching, getting off balance and jumpy at the plate. At times, he’ll show a bat wrap that he needs to fix and a couple of singles I’ve seen have come on pitches where he was fooled but bat speed and eye-hand coordination allowed him to get enough of the pitch.

Read the rest of this entry »

After some covering the WWBA tournament for ESPN, I fell behind on some instructional league reports, so I’ll roll out the remainder lightning round style over the next few days. Normally, I need a few days to be able to see all the prospects in a camp and have an opinion, but fortunately the one game I saw of the Astros featured all of their notable prospects in camp. I have some history with most of the prospect hitters and while it was only one game, I got a good, updated feel for the players, so I’ll run through the roster in two parts.

I covered Lance McCullers a lot as an amateur for ESPN as the supplemental first rounder played his prep ball just down the street from my house. He started the instructs game I saw and continued to show progress in what ended up being a huge developmental season for him. I’ve seen McCullers hit 98 and despite the longest season of his career, he still worked 91-93, hitting 94 with some life and mixing in a two-seamer at 88-89. His curveball was it’s usual self, showing plus potential at 79-82, though he would get around the pitch and give it ¾ tilt at times rather than the preferred 11-to-5 tilt.

Read the rest of this entry »