Jim Hendry has been relieved of his duties as general manager of the Chicago Cubs. We’ll have plenty of time to look back on his place in GM history, but for now, let’s look forward. Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts gave us the checklist today, when he said that he was looking for a candidate who had analytical experience in a winning front office and who would focus on player development. Time to rank the potential replacements using those requirements.

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Jason Heyward has been having a bad year. He had back pain in spring training and missed a month this year with a shoulder injury, and was criticized by teammate Chipper Jones when he announced that he didn’t want to return to the starting lineup until he was fully healthy. Heyward claims to be unaffected by injury at the moment, but it’s hard to tell just how healthy he has been: pretty much all of his offensive numbers are substantially down, even including his walk rate. It’s hard for any team to go through something like this with a phenom; after his five-win rookie year, the Braves know he’s a huge part of their future, but this year he hasn’t been good at much except grounding weakly to second base. So the Braves did the unthinkable: they benched him.

Since August 1, after the Braves acquired Michael Bourn for center field, the team has played 14 games, and Heyward has made just six starts. The other eight starts in right field have been made by Jose “George” Constanza, a 27-year old career minor leaguer called up just before the trade deadline who has hit like Jeff Francoeur in July 2005, with a .425 wOBA over the first 17 games of his career. Constanza defines the phrase “hot hand” — he had an ISO of .066 in the minors, and he’s currently riding a 5.6 percent walk rate — but the Braves seem to have decided that they might as well ride him until the league catches up to him.
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A five home-run game has never happened for a hitter, but it has happened for pitchers plenty of times. It’s certainly less of a positive achievement there, but just as notable. Or more notable because it’s actually happened and I can note the times that it has. It happened another two times already tonight, as noted by Jeff Sullivan.

CC Sabathia surrendered five home runs to the Rays, all from different hitters, and Carlos Zambrano gave up five to the Braves, two coming from Dan Uggla and his now 32-game hitting streak. On their own, they are worth noting and then moving on. A pitching giving up five home runs is certainly unusual but it’s not incredibly rare. James Shields, Tim Wakefield and R.A. Dickey have allowed six in a game once and that’s only looking at the past decade. All in all, there have now been 34 instances of a five-homer game since 2000. For reference, over the same time period there have been a total of 39 triple plays turned. What I did notice however, is that Sabathia’s five home runs were all solo shots and that’s a much rarer event.

In the entire Retrosheet era, there are only 22 other cases of a pitcher giving up at least five solo home runs in a game. James Shields ruins a bit of the fun by having done it so recently as 7 August 2010 when five of the ultimately six home runs hit off him were solo dingers. More fascinating is that Tim Wakefield has actually done it twice. In the aforementioned six home run game in 2004, five of the home runs were solo shots in Detroit. The other was a two-run shot and Wakefield only allowed 2 non-HR hits over his five innings that game. Prior to that, in 1996 pitching at Fenway to the White Sox, Wakefield served up solo home runs to Frank Thomas (three times), Danny Tartabull and Robin Ventura. Similar to the other game, Wakefield only allowed a single hit that wasn’t a home run and completed six innings. Amazingly, the Red Sox won both those games.

Turning from the opposite of solo home runs, in case you needed another daily fun fact, the most amount of runs allowed by a pitcher via the long ball in one game is 11. Gio Gonzalez was responsible in July of 2009 by the Twins in Oakland of all places (and Oakland won despite being down 12-2 at one point) and Shawn Chacon was brutalized by the Angels in Colorado in 2001, which makes way more sense.

Dan Uggla was starting to look like a candidate for worst-acquisition-of-the-offseason. Hitting just .170/.234/.306 on June 10th, the Altanta Braves second baseman had hardly lived up to expectations. Right as it looked as if things could get no worse, Uggla began to turn things around. While he started to come around slowly toward the end of June, Uggla completely exploded in July. Though it’s early, Uggla seems to have carried that momentum into August, and currently carries a 29 game hit streak. Even though luck is often a major factor in these types of surges, Uggla has been pretty damn good the last month and a half.
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Without looking at the leader boards: who’s the best catcher in baseball? Criteria will vary from person to person, but generally it will involve a heavy weight on recent performance with some level of emphasis on long-term production. At this point, I’m willing to bet that the most common answer is Brian McCann. He stands far ahead of the pack this season with 19.1 wRAA, which bests No. 2 ranked Alex Avila by 7.3 runs. Still, there has to be some weight give to performances in the recent past. If we expand this leader board to include the past two calendar years, McCann does not stand atop. That honor belongs to another household name, Joe Mauer.

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With the non-waiver trade deadline past us, we can take a step back and see how each contender upgraded its roster. Because the season is two-thirds over, these players might not have an enormous impact. But for a contender sitting on the fringe, or a leader wanting to solidify its position, these acquisitions could make enough of a difference now, and then a bigger one come playoff time, when everyone starts from scratch.

To project the positional upgrade the team will receive, we’ll look at the wRAA the team has received so far from the position, the projected wRAA for the incumbent, and the projected wRAA for the replacement, based on ZiPS rest of season. We’ll assume 230 PA, which is based on a prorated 700 PA season. I’m leaving out defense, because I’m not comfortable projecting 1/3 of a season. I’m also leaving out guys such as Jerry Hairston, who are injury fill-ins rather than upgrades.

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The Braves finally got in on one of the most active trade deadlines in recent memory Sunday morning, when they acquired Michael Bourn from the Astros. In doing so, the Braves were able to part with quantity over quality and get a guy who perfectly fits their ballclub.

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…or at least since 1974, since that’s how far the play-by-play database goes back at the moment.

All non-masochistic fans hate watching a hitter from their team ground into a double play. It is almost always (that’s right, almost, as we’ll see in a post later this week) devastating for your team’s chances. In terms of linear weights, the average double play in modern baseball is about .37 runs worse than a normal out because it costs another out and takes a runner off of the bases.

Of course, the actual effect of a double play depends on the game situation in which it occurs, it’s place in the story. While Win Probability Added (WPA) isn’t a good way to value individual players, it is a good “story stat,” as it gives a quantitative sense of the ebbs and flows of the game play-by-play by seeing what the teams chances of winning before and after each event are. So let’s take a look at the worst (from the perspective of the hitter’s team) three double plays (just grounded into double plays, as things like lining into a double play are a different sort of beast) according to WPA since 1974.

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“He may not look like a classic corner outfielder, but Cabrera can play, and I think Braves fans will be pleasantly surprised with what he offers.”

— Dave Cameron on Melky Cabrera, February 15, 2010

Well, Dave was probably right that Braves fans were “surprised” with Melky Cabrera’s 2010 performance, but I’m not sure the surprise was all that pleasant. Having seemingly gained forty pounds between the Yankees 2009 World Series victory and Atlanta’s 2010 Opening Day, Cabrera followed his reasonable 1.7 WAR 2009 with a combination of a .294 wOBA and awful defense all over the outfield to end up one full win below replacement level for the 2010 season. Dave wasn’t the only one: check out this fool who thought Melky Cabrera was a three-win player who would have made signing, say, Johnny Damon pointless for the Braves.

So when Melky signed with the Kansas City Royals this past off-season, there was very little excitement, to say the least. With a few exceptions, the signing was panned. Given that it came in close proximity to the fulfillment of The Jeff Francoeur Prophecy and that it was for only $1.25 million, it didn’t get all that much attention. However, while the pitching has been awful, the Royals’ offense has been right in the middle of the pack so far, and Melky’s career-high .349 wOBA and 3.0 WAR have been a big part of that. What does this mean for his near future?

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Whence we last examined yonder batting orders, we came away with several expected observations (Jose Bautista plays baseball like a video game, the Oakland Athletics do not care much for scoring runs, Rick Ankiel and Ian Desmond are not feared hitters, and so forth) as well as a number of curious findings (the Cubs lead-off combo was tops in the majors, the 7th hitters on AL teams were worse than the 9th hitters, NL managers effectively managed the bottoms of their lineups, and such).

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