“Progress always involves risks. You can’t steal second base and keep your foot on first.” — Frederick B. Wilcox

Prior to the 2011 season, the Milwaukee Brewers were largely viewed as a team in flux.

Prince Fielder was rumored to be on the trading block for the right price. The starting rotation was coming off a collective 4.65 ERA in 2010, and the free agent market provided little hope for a small-market team like the Brewers.

Many folks favored a quasi-rebuilding season. Trade a couple impending free agents and acquire some valuable, cost-controlled pitching to build for 2013 and beyond.Fortunately, Brewers’ GM Doug Melvin had an ace or two up his sleeve that nobody in the baseball world saw coming.

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In the bottom of the seventh inning of Game One of the National League Division Series between the Diamondbacks and Brewers, Arizona’s starting pitcher Ian Kennedy faced Milwaukee slugger Prince Fielder with the Diamondbacks losing by two, a runner on second, and two outs. Fielder hit a home run. Almost immediately after the event, commentators questioned the wisdom of letting Kennedy pitch to Fielder in that situation. I even heard the suggestion that the Diamondbacks should have given Fielder a free pass to first base. Did Arizona make the wrong (non-) move?

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The similarities between the Milwaukee Brewers and the Arizona Diamondbacks are creepy. In 2010, both teams had very good offenses but sputtered to losing records due to horrible pitching. With their issues solved — a rebuilt bullpen in Arizona, a revamped starting rotation in Milwaukee — both teams stormed back from the depths of mediocrity (or worse) to hoist a division title in 2011.

The construction of both teams is remarkably similar. Both have a legitimate MVP candidate (Ryan Braun, Justin Upton). Both have good offenses, although with significant holes (Willie Bloomquist, Yuniesky Betancourt), and both have rotations turned from weaknesses to strengths, largely thanks to great one-two punches (Yovani Gallardo and Zack Greinke, Ian Kennedy and Dan Hudson).

What will set these two teams apart? Let’s take a look at the advantages each team will carry into the series, both perceived and real.

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Episode Eighty-Six
In which baseball sells itself.

Headlines
The Events of September 28th — Recapitulated!
The Saddest Story Ever — Told Briefly!
The 2011 Playoffs — Super-Previewed!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 45 min. play time.)

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As has been written ad nauseum both before and during the season, the Milwaukee Brewers went all-in for 2011, particular with respect to upgrading their pitching rotation. The Brewers have won a divisional title for the first time since 1982 and are going to the playoffs for the first time since 2008, so it worked. In 2010, the Brewers starters compiled 7.7 WAR, the third-worst in baseball. In 2011, the remade rotation accumulated 12.7 WAR, which only put them in the middle of the pack, but five wins is a nice improvement. How does the rotation stack up against the others in the playoffs?

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Players who combine power and speed are fun. There, I said it. I know, shocking stuff. Most of the time such players are good, but not always. I didn’t find any bad offensive seasons with 30 or more home runs and steals, but once I lowered the standard to 20-20, well, let’s just say some guys could stand to take a few more walks. It’s a bit of a random collection, overall, so let’s take a look at the worst individual offensive seasons with at least 20 home runs and 20 steals.

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What would it take for a pitcher to win the National League MVP award?

Really there are two questions here: What would it take for voters to vote a starter into the award? And what would it take for a pitcher to be worth more than a position player?

First, a bit of history. Twenty-one pitchers have won the award since 1911, meaning it happens about once every 10 years. The last time it happened for a starter was 1986, when Roger Clemens won the award with a 24-4 record and 238 strike outs. Those benchmarks won’t be hit this year, but is it possible that some of the conditions will be met? Could Roy Halladay or Clayton Kershaw find themselves with two pieces of mega-hardware after the season?

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This past offseason, the Milwaukee Brewers took a risk that has paid conspicuously excellent dividends for the 2011 season, trading away the young and (generally) talented Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress, Brett Lawrie, and Jake Odorizzi for the slightly older and more reliably talented Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum.

Greinke and Marcum, worth about six wins between them thus far in 2011, have been essential contributors to a Brewers team that, as of publication, is 7.5 games up in the NL Central and has something better than a 95% chance of making the postseason. It’s an extraordinary turnaround for a team that finished below .500 in 2010 and featured one of the NL’s worst starting-pitching staffs.

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It all came together for the Milwaukee Brewers on July 26th. After trailing the NL Central by a half game, something clicked. Since that period the Brewers have gone 18-2; propelling themselves into first place by seven games. With their recent streak, the Brewers have over a 95% chance at making the post-season (per Baseball Prospectus). Over the past twenty games, the Brewers have been unbeatable. Let’s take a look at their current hot streak.
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Earlier this summer, I took an easy (but deserved) shot at the Florida Marlins’ ownership for never really putting out the effort to win despite having a solid core of young talent for years and a large profit margin thanks to revenue sharing. I’m not taking it back now, but while it is admittedly fun to be negative (kudos on the handling of the Logan Morrison situation, boys!), I come today not to bury two more teams, but to praise them. The Detroit Tigers and Milwaukee Brewers are both currently winning their respective divisions. Whether or not it lasts, they deserve credit for going for it when they easily could have justified playing it safe. They are the anti-Marlins of 2011.

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