Archive for Brewers

This past offseason, the Milwaukee Brewers took a risk that has paid conspicuously excellent dividends for the 2011 season, trading away the young and (generally) talented Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress, Brett Lawrie, and Jake Odorizzi for the slightly older and more reliably talented Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum.

Greinke and Marcum, worth about six wins between them thus far in 2011, have been essential contributors to a Brewers team that, as of publication, is 7.5 games up in the NL Central and has something better than a 95% chance of making the postseason. It’s an extraordinary turnaround for a team that finished below .500 in 2010 and featured one of the NL’s worst starting-pitching staffs.

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It all came together for the Milwaukee Brewers on July 26th. After trailing the NL Central by a half game, something clicked. Since that period the Brewers have gone 18-2; propelling themselves into first place by seven games. With their recent streak, the Brewers have over a 95% chance at making the post-season (per Baseball Prospectus). Over the past twenty games, the Brewers have been unbeatable. Let’s take a look at their current hot streak.
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Earlier this summer, I took an easy (but deserved) shot at the Florida Marlins’ ownership for never really putting out the effort to win despite having a solid core of young talent for years and a large profit margin thanks to revenue sharing. I’m not taking it back now, but while it is admittedly fun to be negative (kudos on the handling of the Logan Morrison situation, boys!), I come today not to bury two more teams, but to praise them. The Detroit Tigers and Milwaukee Brewers are both currently winning their respective divisions. Whether or not it lasts, they deserve credit for going for it when they easily could have justified playing it safe. They are the anti-Marlins of 2011.

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We often roll our eyes when announcers cite a player’s stats over the past 15 days. We’ll groan when they tout how many home runs he’s hit since the All-Star break. We’ll throw the remote when a pitcher’s last five starts are mentioned. And yet, when we attempt to analyze a player here, there’s nary a blink if ‘last season’ is mentioned.

Well, guess what. Seasons are also arbitrary endpoints. Yes, they are arbitrary endpoints that allow for easy analysis, and ones that we have all agreed to use. And, if we didn’t use them, statistical analysis would be rendered fantastically difficult. Our record books would look very strange. We’d have to phrase things very carefully.

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…since 1974, when our play-by-play database begins.

On Monday, I posted about the three worst double plays ever according to Win Probability Added (WPA). From 1974 through yesterday’s games, there have been 89072 double plays caused by groundouts (I’m leaving out other sorts of double plays as, from the hitter’s perspective at least, they have more to do with dumb luck). Of those, only 51 have a positive WPA. However, it does happen from time to time, and while the shifts aren’t as dramatic in terms of WPA, the circumstances make them more interesting (at least to me) than the negative WPA occasions.

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Whence we last examined yonder batting orders, we came away with several expected observations (Jose Bautista plays baseball like a video game, the Oakland Athletics do not care much for scoring runs, Rick Ankiel and Ian Desmond are not feared hitters, and so forth) as well as a number of curious findings (the Cubs lead-off combo was tops in the majors, the 7th hitters on AL teams were worse than the 9th hitters, NL managers effectively managed the bottoms of their lineups, and such).

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Brewers GM Doug Melving might have been diplomatically non-committal when discussing Francisco Rodriguez’s role, but it’s clear to just about everyone that he will not be the team’s closer. He’s qualified, to be certain. Although his stuff has diminished a bit he still strikes out more than a batter per inning and for the second straight year is walking fewer batters than in the past. The Brewers, however, have two strong reasons to keep him in the setup role: the presence of John Axford, and the $17.5 million 2012 option that will vest if Rodriguez finishes 21 more games this season. But if something goes wrong with the former, it could lead to the latter.

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[NB: Working team names into titles is an oh-so-subtle way of showing readers how clever you are. Also: food metaphors~!]

I guess it is Brewers’ week here at FanGraphs, and why not? Surely I’m only one among many non-Milwaukee fans who is enjoying their all-in season. It’s been a hoot watching as they attempt to make the playoffs with a Stars and Scrubs approach. And, as we know, anything can happen in the playoffs (Roy Halladay versus Zack Greinke in the NLCS, anyone?). The Scrubs are as fascinating as the Stars… can a team really make it to the playoffs with Yuniesky Betancourt (anagram: “Batter Nine You Sucky,” thanks Graham) at shortstop? Shortstop has been a mess for a while now in Milwaukee, and there isn’t an immanent solution in sight. However, another position that was thought to be on the Brewers’ “scrub side” prior the season, center field, has turned into a real plus. It’s the too-rarely-used (and rarely-properly-implemented) Magic of Platooning, starring Carlos Gomez and Nyjer Morgan!

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Late last night, news broke that the Mets had traded closer Francisco Rodriguez to the Brewers (along with $5 million to help off-set his contract) for two players to be named later. My immediate reaction to hearing the news was twofold: what a no-brainer trade for the Mets, and not a half-bad for the Brewers either.

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During last week’s Very Important Event at SABR 41, Sam Miller of the OC Register noted that one of the deficiencies of the current Angels team is the abundance of average-ish players on the roster. Despite the fact that the Anaheimers sit only a single game out of first place at the All-Star break, their playoff chances are impaired by a lack of obviously upgradeable positions: seven Angels are on pace for (or have already reached) a WAR of 2.0 or better — i.e. league average — while Bobby Abreu (who’s not going anywhere) and the catcher spot are the other two relevant slots.

Turning our attention to the Middle West, however, we see a team in the Milwaukee Brewers that has very clear deficiencies. One of these — third base — I have no intention of addressing here. The other, however — namely, shortstop — has been a conspicuous weakness from the very second Brewer GM Doug Melvin traded away Alcides Escobar et al. for Zack Greinke.

Please note that it’s not my intention whatsoever to suggest that the Greinke deal was a poor one. Very much to the contrary, Greinke appears to be an essential part of a vastly improved Brewer club. Rather, the point of this post is to note that there has never been much reason to assume that Yuniesky Betancourt, who has been a replacement-level player since 2008, would prove to be anything but a replacement-level player in 2011.

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