Game Two Was Objectively, Historically Crazy
In terms of significant, game-changing moments, no World Series game in history compares to Wednesday night’s epic between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Houston Astros. In the sixth inning, Corey Seager hit a two-run homer off of Justin Verlander to break a 1-1 tie. In the top of the ninth, Marwin Gonzalez hit a solo shot to tie the game 3-3. In the 10th, Jose Altuve broke the tie with a solo shot. In the bottom half of that same inning, Enrique Hernandez’s RBI single tied the game, and then in the top of the 11th, George Springer hit a two-run homer that would put the Astros up for good. Each of those five plays increased the scoring club’s chances victory by 25% according to Win Probability Added. That’s never happened before in a World Series game.
Since 2002, only one in three games have produced plays with at least one play with a WPA of .25 or greater. To put that in greater context, consider: there have been only 18 plays total this posteason that produced a WPA of .25 or greater. Here they are, in order of impact on win probability:
GameDate | Inning | Outs | PlayDesc | HomeTeam | AwayTeam | WPA |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10/25/2017 | 10 | 2 | Enrique Hernandez singled to right (Grounder). Logan Forsythe scored. Enrique Hernandez advanced to 2B. | Dodgers | Astros | .468 |
10/15/2017 | 9 | 2 | Justin Turner homered (Fly). Yasiel Puig scored. Chris Taylor scored. | Dodgers | Cubs | .394 |
10/7/2017 | 8 | 1 | Bryce Harper homered (Fly). Victor Robles scored. | Nationals | Cubs | .388 |
10/14/2017 | 9 | 1 | Carlos Correa doubled to right (Fliner (Liner)). Jose Altuve scored. | Astros | Yankees | .369 |
10/25/2017 | 9 | 0 | Marwin Gonzalez homered (Fliner (Fly)). | Dodgers | Astros | .350 |
10/25/2017 | 10 | 0 | Jose Altuve homered (Fliner (Fly)). | Dodgers | Astros | .350 |
10/24/2017 | 6 | 2 | Justin Turner homered (Fly). Chris Taylor scored. | Dodgers | Astros | .306 |
10/25/2017 | 6 | 2 | Corey Seager homered (Fly). Chris Taylor scored. | Dodgers | Astros | .306 |
10/7/2017 | 8 | 1 | Ryan Zimmerman homered (Fly). Anthony Rendon scored. Daniel Murphy scored. | Nationals | Cubs | .300 |
10/6/2017 | 8 | 0 | Jay Bruce homered (Fly). | Indians | Yankees | .298 |
10/6/2017 | 3 | 2 | Aaron Hicks homered (Fliner (Fly)). Starlin Castro scored. Gregory Bird scored. | Indians | Yankees | .278 |
10/12/2017 | 5 | 2 | Addison Russell doubled to left (Grounder). Willson Contreras scored. Ben Zobrist scored. | Nationals | Cubs | .271 |
10/25/2017 | 11 | 0 | George Springer homered (Fliner (Fly)). Cameron Maybin scored. | Dodgers | Astros | .261 |
10/9/2017 | 8 | 3 | Anthony Rizzo singled to center (Fliner (Fly)). Leonys Martin scored. Anthony Rizzo out. | Cubs | Nationals | .259 |
10/16/2017 | 2 | 2 | Todd Frazier homered (Fliner (Fly)). Starlin Castro scored. Aaron Hicks scored. | Yankees | Astros | .258 |
10/9/2017 | 8 | 2 | Josh Reddick singled to left (Grounder). Cameron Maybin scored. George Springer advanced to 3B. | Red Sox | Astros | .253 |
10/9/2017 | 5 | 1 | Andrew Benintendi homered (Fly). Xander Bogaerts scored. | Red Sox | Astros | .253 |
10/6/2017 | 6 | 2 | Francisco Lindor homered (Fliner (Fly)). Carlos Santana scored. Yan Gomes scored. Lonnie Chisenhall scored. | Indians | Yankees | .251 |
Of the eight biggest plays in the postseason this year, four occurred in Game 2. Hernandez’s single in a losing effort produced the highest WPA of any play in this postseason.