In light of Jason Bay’s recent hot streak — he’s hitting .307/.374/.466 over the last month — and two homerun game last night, some fans are beginning to wonder if the pre-Mets version of Jason Bay is finally beginning to show up. After all, Bay had posted above a .385 wOBA in four of the five seasons prior to signing with the Mets; his bat can’t disappear overnight, can it? Considering that Bay has now played 155 games with the Mets, take a look at how his line compares with the average for the rest of his career:

When you look at his numbers in this light, his problem becomes immediately obvious: his power has completely evaporated. He’s still walking at a similar rate (10-11%), striking out at a similar rate (25%), hitting around 90 singles per 600 PA, making contact with a similar number of pitches (75%), and having balls fall in for hits at around his career average rate (.320 BABIP). Literally the only difference between the Old Bay (mmm!) and New Bay is his utter lack of power: his homerun total has plummeted, dragging his batting average down, and he’s also hitting fewer doubles. While Bay used to be good for 30+ homerun per season, the Mets have only gotten a total of 43 extra base hits out of him so far.

This conclusion leads me to two important questions: how much is Citi Field to blame for Bay’s loss of power, and is Bay’s recent surge a sign of good things to come?

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While trade season primarily involves contenders raiding also-rans for useful players, we always hope for that trade that makes us go: what? When the Red Sox traded Manny to the Dodgers in 2008: What? (Which was preceded, of course, but a much louder what when it was reported they traded him to Florida.) We don’t see those very often, because they often involve high-profile players with big contracts, which complicates matters. Chances are we won’t see any jaw-dropping moves this off-season, but that doesn’t preclude us from writing about possibilities.

Today we’ll hold a bad contract swap meet. There aren’t too many huge, horrible contracts out there — that is, contracts that a team would dump if possible and not really miss the player’s production. The entrants, with the year their contracts expire and the money they’re owed beyond 2011 (assuming options declined):

Boston Red Sox: John Lackey (2014, $47.85m)
New York Mets: Jason Bay (2013, $39.26m)
San Francisco Giants: Barry Zito (2013, $46m)
Chicago Cubs: Alfonso Soriano (2014, $57m)

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Nothing is set in stone, but Ike Davis has some torn cartilage and a bone bruise in his ankle that is not healing. He’ll face some more tests and try to run in three weeks, but if he can’t, he’ll be facing season-ending surgery. It’s possible that season-ending surgery will be of the bone-chilling microfracture variety. Let’s pause for a second until the cacophony of “snakebit” and “woe is us” coming from Queens dies down.

There, that’s better. It’s upsetting though, of course. And the one of the main complaints may have some merit. With this story so familiar in recent years, it does seem merited to wonder if the Mets medical staff is doing their jobs correctly. You could take the words “Ike Davis” out of this situation and slide in “Carlos Beltran” and only the joint in question would be any different.

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Just ten days ago, FanGraphs borrowed an idea from ESPN and held a Franchise Player Draft. When all was said and done, I think all of the FanGraphs contributors were ultimately happy with their picks. Though we felt good about our franchise players, many of the readers were quick to point out players they felt were snubbed. Of all the names mentioned, Jose Reyes has become the one player I’m surprised wasn’t selected during the draft. Still only 28, Reyes appears to have put his injuries behind him and he’s well on his way to his best season as a pro. Despite that, we decided he wasn’t worthy of a selection in the Franchise Player Draft. Is Jose Reyes making us look like fools?
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There was some grumbling in Milwaukee when Chris Capuano signed with the New York Mets. After all, the 32-year-old lefty was a popular Brewer who had just survived his second Tommy John surgery in order to put up 66 decent innings as a long man and sixth starter last year. In the end, though, the grumbling died down to a whimper, because there were two unassailable reasons that “Cappy” was allowed to walk. For one, the pitcher himself preferred the chance to make a major league rotation, a chance that the Brewers didn’t necessarily offer.

They didn’t offer that chance because they already had another, younger, Chris Capuano on hand: Chris Narveson.

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The following data is current through 5-30-2011.

If you, dear reader, are like me, then you agonize unnecessarily over every lineup on every team in every game. Aaron Rowand leading off?! Yargh! No! Carlos Gomez batting second for the Brewers?! WRONG. Aaron Miles batting anything?! Unforgivable.

Holding egos constant, inefficiency is the greatest enemy of success. With regards to lineups, however, teams can really only lose a handful of runs over the course of full season, but a handful of runs, in real terms, can mean the difference between the division or a boring October. So it’s a dicey proposition. A mismanaged lineup on the Royals team does not mean a whole lot because they will lose the division by several trillion runs. A few lost runs for the Rays, Yankees, or Red Sox, though, can mean the season.
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Continuing our Trade Targets series, here are five middle infielders who could be available at (or before) the deadline.

PLAYER: Jose Reyes
TEAM: Mets
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Giants, Reds, Brewers
CONTRACT STATUS: $11 million, free agent after the season
PROJECTED WAR: 3.3

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It seemed unlikely that the Mets would be the center of baseball attention any time during the 2011 season. They made a splash by hiring Sandy Alderson and his cast of familiar faces to run the front office, but they made mostly small moves this winter, knowing that the pieces just weren’t there to contend. The biggest buzz most of us expected was a potential Jose Reyes trade, and even then the buzz would be Reyes, not necessarily the entire Mets team.

That changed, of course, when this week’s New Yorker dropped on Monday morning. Within its pages team owner Fred Wilpon was quoted as saying some less than flattering things about his team and its players. As if that weren’t enough, the latest issue of Sports Illustrated also features and article about Wilpon, in which he talks about the team’s financial woes. They’re taking losses, and while they have money coming off the books this winter they might not be able to reinvest all of it. That might make things tougher for the 2012 team as well.

The Mets did get some good news, though, that can perhaps inspire optimism for the coming off-season and even 2012. According to ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin, injured ace Johan Santana threw off a full mound on Monday, for the first time since he struck out Omar Infante on September 2, 2010. His return this season could help the Mets considerably.

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The vastly under-appreciated Carlos Beltran hit three home runs last night, boosting his line for the season to .296/.387/.590 (.417 wOBA). Although the Mets are, as expected, not in contention this season, Beltran’s return to his pre-2010 offensive form so far has been a welcome development. Given Beltran’s age and recent injury issues, it wasn’t out of the realm of possibility that he’d simply not be able to contribute much this season. Despite the hot start, he’s in the last year of a big contract and probably not part of the Mets future. Beltran is probably a trade candidate. What sort of value does he have on the trade market?

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Let’s get all the Ike Davis caveats out of the way first.

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