Armed with a new measure for offensive volatility (VOL), I wanted to revisit research I conducted  last year about the value of a consistent offense.

In general, the literature has suggested if you’re comparing two similar offenses, the more consistent offense is preferable throughout the season. The reason has to do with the potential advantages a team can gain when they don’t “waste runs” in blow-out victories. The more evenly a team can distribute their runs, the better than chances of winning more games.

I decided to take my new volatility (VOL) metric and apply it to team-level offense to see if it conformed to this general consensus*.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Royals hunt for a quality young starting pitcher is the worst kept secret in baseball. At various times over the last few weeks, the team has been rumored to be considering trading Wil Myers, Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, and Billy Butler in an effort to obtain a hiågh quality arm, preferably one with multiple years of team control and a bright future. Over the last few days, the rumors have shifted from primarily being about Myers to focusing more on Butler, with both the Mariners and Royals identified as potential fits based on their needs for offense and a potential ability to part with young pitching.

Personally, I don’t see much of a fit with Seattle, a team that already has a young right-handed DH in Jesus Montero. The Mariners also don’t really have the kind of Major League ready young arms that Kansas City is looking for in exchange, so while the theory might work, the teams don’t really line up in terms of exchangeable assets.

The Orioles are another story. After non-tendering Mark Reynolds, their best DH options on the roster are currently Wilson Betemit and Steve Pearce – not exactly the kind of firepower that a team with playoff aspirations is looking for. In terms of need at DH and desire to add an impact bat, there probably isn’t a better fit for Butler than Baltimore.

The question is more along the lines of what would go back to Kansas City in return. The Orioles have a significant amount of talented young pitchers, but they don’t have the kind of established Major League performer that the Royals seem to favor. Their best young arms — Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman — are still considered prospects, and their Major League young arms all come with significant question marks. However, given Butler’s actual trade value, perhaps that kind of unestablished big league arm is actually a worthy return.

Read the rest of this entry »

Early Sunday morning, Twitter was abuzz with news that the Dodgers and Fox Sports West had agreed to a 25-year broadcast deal valued between $6 billion and $7 billion. By Sunday afternoon, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times had confirmed the outline of the deal, but cautioned that the Dodgers and Fox were still negotiating, with a November 30 deadline looming.

As I explained last week in this post, the parties’ existing agreement gave Fox an exclusive, 45-day window in which to negotiate a new deal to govern the 2014 season and beyond. Hence, the November 30 deadline. If an agreement isn’t inked by Friday, the Dodgers must submit a final offer to Fox by December 7. Fox then has 30 days to accept or reject the offer. If Fox rejects the offer, the Dodgers are free to negotiate with whomever they want.

However the negotiations play out, it’s clear now that the Dodgers’ local TV revenue is about to enter the stratosphere. A 25-year deal worth between $6 billion and $7 billion would net the Dodgers between $240 million and $280 million per year. Per year. That’s more than any team has ever spent on player salaries in a single season — even the Yankees. And it’s nearly double the amount of local TV revenue pulled in annually by the team with the second-most lucrative deal — the other Los Angeles team (the Angels) — which entered into a 17-year deal with Fox Sports West worth $2.5 billion.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s the bottom of the eighth inning. Men are on first and third base, there’s one out and your team is down by one run. The opposing team has one of the best ground-ball pitchers on the hill, and the infield is playing back and is looking for a double play. All you need is a fly ball to tie the game and significantly swing your chances of winning.

So who do you want at the plate?

It’s likely that the opposing manager will either bring in a ground-ball specialist or just tell the pitcher to stay away from pitches that could be hit in the air to the outfield. Knowing who you’d want to hit requires an understanding of what pitches are the most likely to induce a ground ball — and what hitters manage to hit fly balls against those pitches most often.

Read the rest of this entry »

David Wright experienced a resurgence of sorts in 2012. After four straight outstanding offense seasons, Wright’s offensive production dipped significantly in 2009 — from a 141 wRC+ to 125. In 2011, Wright’s wRC+ declined all the way to 116.

But this year, the old David Wright reappeared and the 29-year-old third basemen posted a 140 wRC+. The Mets, encouraged by Wright’s year at the plate, have not only picked up his 2013 option (which was predictable), but have also continued discussions for a long-term contract extension.

How likely we are to see Wright put up similar numbers in the future is debatable.

Regardless, one thing was clear: Wright was making better decisions at the plate in 2012. And while his plate discipline numbers were positive (e.g. -2.1% O-Swing), the overall change didn’t seem to capture how well Wright’s plate approach improved.

In an effort to tease this out beyond the basic plate discipline metrics, R. J. Anderson used Mike Fast’s “correct” decision-making approach to look at how Wright’s decision-making improved in the past three season. Anderson calculated the percentage of “correct” pitches Wright swung at in 2012, compared to the two previous seasons. He found Wright had improved his decision-making by 7%.

I decided to take an even narrower view than Anderson and focused only on the location of balls Wright swung at that were just off of the plate, or that were off the black.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Yankees’ decision to bench Alex Rodriguez has consequences extending beyond Game 5 of the 2012 ALDS, win or lose. Staying in the here and now, it’s a decision by the Yankees to prioritize the platoon advantage — with Eric Chavez at third base instead of Rodriguez, the Yankees will be throwing seven left-handed (or switch-hitting) batters at Orioles starter Jason Hammel. Only Derek Jeter and Russell Martin will bat from the right side.

Joe Girardi is betting against a trend from this season’s New And Improved Jason Hammel: against 257 lefties, he allowed a .262 wOBA; against 236 righties, he allowed a .306 mark.

Read the rest of this entry »

The playoffs have a way of turning role players into celebrities. The playoffs also have a way of turning superstars into celebrities — it’s all about who performs at the right time over small samples — but the playoffs are a time for role players to capture extensive attention, and a guy who’s getting a lot of attention right now is side-arming Orioles reliever Darren O’Day. O’Day has been of tremendous value to the Orioles in 2012, and in this ALDS. Previously, he went undrafted out of college. The Mets grabbed him from the Angels in the Rule 5 draft. The Rangers grabbed him off waivers from the Mets. The Orioles grabbed him off waivers from the Rangers. O’Day’s always been valued enough to have a job, but not really enough to keep it for long.

One of the interesting things about O’Day — one of the things that’s made him valuable — is that, for a side-arming righty, he’s been surprisingly effective against left-handed hitters. Not just this series, not just this season, but over his career. Over 640 total plate appearances, righties facing O’Day have posted a .281 OBP. Over 364 total plate appearances, lefties facing O’Day have posted a .285 OBP. There are differences in average, slugging, and wOBA, as you’d expect, and it’s not like O’Day has an even platoon split, but he doesn’t have a giant platoon split, and that’s kind of weird for a guy with his arm angle.

Read the rest of this entry »

If you’re reading FanGraphs, you probably like baseball. If you like baseball, you’ve probably watched an Orioles game this year. If you’ve watched an Orioles game this year, you’ve probably seen Darren O’Day pitch. Even as relievers go, he pitches a lot, as he appeared in 69 regular season games, the wild card play-in game, and has now pitched in all four games of the ALDS. And, if you’ve seen O’Day pitch this year, then you’ve probably noticed that he throws from a really low arm slot, but thanks to our friends over at SBNation, we’re going to show you O’Day striking out Alex Rodriguez last night, just so you can appreciate the funkiness in all it’s glory.

Watching that, you almost feel bad for Rodriguez. How is he supposed to hit that? What is any right-hander supposed to do with a slider from that arm angle that starts on the outer half of the plate and ends up a foot outside? And, if that was the match-up option, why not send Raul Ibanez up to pinch-hit for Rodriguez? Certainly, a lefty would have far more success against O’Day’s drop-down delivery, right?

You would think. And, with pretty much every other low slot/sidearm/submarine guy on the planet, you’d be right. Chad Bradford had insanely large platoon splits. Same deal with Mike Myers. Justin Masterson’s low arm slot is the main reason he struggles against left-handers. Guys who throw the ball from that kind of arm angle are usually brutal on same-handed hitters and ineffective against guys from the opposite side of the plate.

And yet, O’Day ran through the entire Yankees line-up last night, including six guys hitting from the left side: Nick Swisher, Curtis Granderson (okay, not much of an accomplishment right now), Raul Ibanez, Ichiro Suzuki, Mark Teixiera, and Robinson Cano. That’s a pretty decent collection of left-handed bats, and O’Day just mowed them down. And perhaps the most amazing part of the entire thing is that we probably shouldn’t have been surprised.

Read the rest of this entry »

The author, because he’s an idiot, mistakenly wrote this preview for the Yankees-Orioles series despite having definitely been assigned the Nationals-Cardinals NLDS, instead, by his fearless editor Dave Cameron. Interested readers can expect full coverage of the Nationals and Cardinals beginning tomorrow (Monday).

If you’ve made your way to FanGraphs — and if, furthermore, our demographic data is even half accurate — you’re the sort of person who either (a) has done well in school or (b) is currently doing well in school. Which, that means you’re probably also the sort of person who (a) has taken a number of quizzes before and also (b) has done well on those same quizzes — and maybe even (c) actively enjoys taking quizzes.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Baltimore Orioles have had an amazing season. They weren’t supposed to be any good, but they kept winning. They were supposed to regress to the mean, but they never did. They spent the entire summer giving Pythagoras the bird, and then, forced to play for their lives on the road against a Rangers team that simply looked to have every advantage, they won handily. Behind Joe Saunders. Against a line-up full of right-handers. The 2012 Orioles are why there’s a Twitter account called “You Can’t Predict Baseball”.

But, now, in a five game series against the Yankees, everyone’s going to bet against the Orioles again. Everything points to New York being the better team. They won more games. They scored 92 more runs and allowed 37 less. They have the best offense in baseball. They’re the Yankees. They have players who we expect to be good.

The Orioles, meanwhile, have a roster full of guys with track records of mediocre performance. This isn’t a team full of fresh-faced kids straight up from the minors — well, besides Manny Machado, anyway — who are introducing themselves to the Major Leagues. It’s a roster heavy on guys who were discarded by other organizations, with histories that suggest that they just aren’t that good.

Perhaps no player typifies the 2012 Orioles more than Tommy Hunter. And it’s guys like Tommy Hunter who are why we need to reevaluate what we know about the 2012 Orioles.

Read the rest of this entry »