Archive for Teams

Last season, the Cubs lost 101 games. By straight record, it was their worst year since 1966, and they would’ve been the worst team in baseball were it not for the Astros putting on a clinic in how to accomplish exactly that. The Cubs, of course, are rebuilding, and as their 2012 team record would suggest, the process has only somewhat recently gotten underway. As you rebuild, you generally build from the ground up, acquiring youth and spending on short-term free agents. Generally.

Thursday, hours after it was revealed that Josh Hamilton was signing with the Angels, it was reported that Anibal Sanchez was signing with the Cubs. That comes from Bob Nightengale. Nightengale has written up a whole article about this, but no one else is yet confirming his report — Ken Rosenthal says instead that the Cubs are close, but that others remain in play. The Tigers have been Sanchez’s other most serious suitor, and Nightengale puts the Cubs’ offer at five years and $75 million. Let’s say that Sanchez has not yet agreed to a contract. We know now that the Cubs are deeply interested. And at first glance, that seems curious, given the Cubs’ position.

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After losing out on Zack Greinke, the Angels decided to just take the money they had ticketed for a pitcher and sign Josh Hamilton instead. It’s certainly a bold move, and even with all of Hamilton’s red flags, he should probably project as something around a +4 win player for 2013, though of course the variance around that mark is probably larger than with most hitters. However, for the Angels to realize the full value of adding Hamilton to the roster, this can’t be their last move, because they already had an outfield full of useful players, and paying $125 million for the right to bench Mark Trumbo or Peter Boujos just doesn’t make any sense.

The Angels still have a gaping hole in their starting rotation. With Hamilton in the fold, they now have four outfielders who deserve to play regularly. A trade seems inevitable. Now, the Angels just have to decide which player to move.

Mike Trout’s obviously not going anywhere, and Vernon Wells wouldn’t even bring a batting tee in return, so it’s likely going to come down to one of three options – Bourjos, Trumbo, or Kendrys Morales. There are only two line-up spots for those three players, and all three are good enough to be big league starter. So, who goes and who stays?

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Let’s begin with the news: Josh Hamilton is a free agent no longer. As of Thursday, he’s agreed to a five-year contract with the Angels reportedly worth $125 million. That breaks down easily to come out to an average annual value of $25 million. As of Wednesday, the Rangers looked like the favorites to get Hamilton locked up, and it was said that Hamilton would give the Rangers a chance to match any offer before he committed himself to another organization. According to Jon Heyman, the Rangers were actually given no such chance, as they were simply told that Hamilton was leaving. Reports suggest the Rangers wouldn’t go higher than four years. The Angels gave five. Five is greater than four.

Now let’s follow with some recent history. The Angels weren’t even mentioned seriously as a Hamilton suitor until Thursday morning. It looked like it would be the Rangers, with the Mariners and the Phillies somewhere on the dark-horse periphery. In fact:

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I caught the upper level Mariners affiliates (Jackson & Tacoma) on a swing through the southeast late in the minor league season and there are a handful of prospects from those teams I haven’t written up yet. Both of these teams were deep with big leaguers and have some interesting prospects beyond the obvious elite guys.

Stefen Romero had the lowest draft profile player among these prospects, as a 12th round pick that signed for $100,000 out of Oregon State, but he kept barreling balls up when I saw him and he’s done it all year (.346/.387/.588 in Hi-A and AA). He does it mostly with a pull-oriented, aggressive, early count approach that normally doesn’t project well, but works for some guys in the big leagues, so you can’t rule him out. Normally this kind of approach comes with below-average hitting tools and allows the hitter to take advantage of the mistakes lower-level pitchers make, but falls apart against the advanced command of the upper levels. When Romero keeps raking in AA and picking his spots against better pitching, it starts becoming more likely he’s a useful big leaguer and he has some big league tools to back that up.

Romero has solid bat speed, above-average raw power to his pull side and a simple swing. His plate discipline is just okay, there is some stiffness to his swing and there’s occasional length to his bath path with a high finish that can become an uppercut at times. Going back to my three elements of a hit tool, his tools are solid-average, his bat control shows flashes of average and his plate discipline is below. That’s enough to be a big league hitter with the power to punish a mistake and the 6’3, 225 Romero was actually playing second base for Jackson. His big frame and below-average feet will limit him to a corner utility role in the big leagues, but his hands looked good enough that he may be able to play a solid third base. Even as strictly a corner outfielder, he can be a righty platoon bat with a chance for a little more.
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According to Ken Rosenthal, Ryan Dempster is close to signing with the Boston Red Sox. Assuming the deal gets done, you’re going to hear a lot about how Dempster is an NL pitcher transitioning to the AL East, and how this is bound to go poorly. You’re going to hear about Dempster’s 5.09 ERA with Texas after the mid-season trade ended his long stint as an NL only pitcher, and you’re going to hear about how he got taken apart by the Yankees, giving up eight runs in six innings of work.

Because Dempster is headed for his age-36 season, has a fastball that sits around 90 mph, and had spent his entire career in the NL before the mid-season trade to Texas, many are going to expect Dempster to be exposed in the AL East. Whenever a pitcher without top-shelf velocity makes the move from the NL to the AL, and especially to the AL East, there’s always an expectation of disaster. The theory goes that pitchers with marginal velocity can dominate in the NL, but get exposed when facing the big bats of the super scary American League East.

The problem is that we’ve got too many pieces of evidence to suggest that it’s not true.

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A renewal of vows between Ichiro Suzuki and the Yankees is beginning to take on an air of inevitability. I don’t know what the Yankees thought they were getting when they first brought Ichiro in, but he had good success down the stretch, and he expressed a willingness to re-sign. The Yankees need an outfielder, and they’re trying to avoid multi-year contracts. Weeks ago, Ichiro’s agent all but declared that Ichiro just wanted to stay where he was, and now Ken Rosenthal reports that a contract agreement is just about reached. Barring a complete surprise, Ichiro will play for the Yankees during the 2013 season. Which, of course, just a few months ago, would’ve been a complete surprise. You’re not even aware of how quickly the things around you are changing. Ichiro is on the Yankees. Michael Young is on the Phillies. Kevin Youkilis is on the Yankees too. Consider this reality.

Had Ichiro performed poorly with New York, it stands to reason he wouldn’t be re-signing, because it stands to reason they wouldn’t want him. It would’ve been fascinating to see if a market would’ve developed had Ichiro struggled. He didn’t, though, batting well north of .300 with the Yankees, so of course they like him on a small contract. They’ll add a right-handed outfielder and then they’ll see how that goes come summertime. Ichiro’s stretch run added a good amount of value to his name, after a year and a half of hard times in Seattle.

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The Rays began life after James Shields in earnest with their first transaction since the big move Wednesday. The club is reportedly close to inking pitcher Roberto Hernandez — formerly and better known as Fausto Carmona — to a contract. Terms have yet to be revealed, but given his struggles the last two seasons — a 5.41 ERA and 1.8 K/BB in 202 innings — and his suspension for faking his identity, one would imagine the Rays’ commitment is minimal.

Just two years ago, though, Hernandez posted a 3.77 ERA and 4.11 FIP in 210 innings — a more than useful piece. The Rays will try to wring that value out of Hernandez’s current form, although likely in a different role.

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Tuesday evening, several eyebrows were raised when the Indians, Reds, and Diamondbacks pulled off a three-way blockbuster. Some raised their eyebrows because the Diamondbacks dealt a top pitching prospect for a shortstop who might never hit. Some raised their eyebrows because the Indians managed to get that pitching prospect for one year of an outfielder. Some raised their eyebrows because everyone else around them was raising their eyebrows and they didn’t want to feel excluded. And some raised their eyebrows because the Reds landed Shin-Soo Choo with intentions of playing him in center field. Choo, without question, fits the Reds’ need for a leadoff hitter. The other fit is a more curious fit.

Everybody knew the Reds were in the market for a leadoff hitter and a center fielder. They failed to land Ben Revere, and they failed to land guys like Angel Pagan and Shane Victorino. So in finding their leadoff hitter and center fielder, the Reds acquired a leadoff hitter and right fielder who they plan to move over. Obviously, things could change between now and the start of the year, and things could still change after the start of the year, but ask the Reds today and they’d tell you that Choo will play in the middle. Choo is 30 years old, and he’s played in the middle for all of 83 innings. He hasn’t done it once since 2009.

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This post isn’t so much a trade analysis of last night’s three team trade between the Reds, Indians, and Diamondbacks, as that post wouldn’t be that interesting – the Indians got a ridiculously great value for one year of Shin-Soo Choo, the Reds turned a prospect they didn’t need into one year of a nice outfielder, and the Diamondbacks turned a pitcher they didn’t want into a guy they hope can be their shortstop of the future. For the Reds, this could be a good move if they can deal with the defensive deficiencies in center until Billy Hamilton is ready. For the D’Backs, they can finally stop trying to sell low on Justin Upton, so even if this trade in particular isn’t a great one, it has a nice side benefit at least. And, for the Indians, they turned one year of Shin-Soo Choo into six years of Trevor Bauer, which looks to be nothing short of a heist.

Last year, both Marc Hulet and Baseball America rated Bauer the #9 prospect in baseball, at that was before he went out and posted a 2.41 ERA over 130 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, striking out 30% of the batters he faced along the way. Bauer’s almost certainly going to be ranked among the top 10 prospects in the game again this coming year. It is extremely rare for a team to turn a rent-a-player into a top ten prospect, especially when that rental is more of a nice player than any kind of star. The Indians got more for one year of Choo than the Twins did for three years of Denard Span. Cleveland fans should be thrilled with this return.

But, at the same time, they should recognize that it might take Bauer a little while to live up to the hype.

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Before the 2007 season, Major League Baseball Advanced Media partnered with StubHub as the official secondary ticket marketplace for Major League Baseball. All 30 MLB teams participated. Anyone could list MLB game tickets for sale on StubHub, at any price. StubHub charged buyers a handling fee and a delivery fee, often totaling more than $10, regardless of the selling price. The “delivery fee” was the key to the deal, as it allowed buyers to print the tickets at home. Gone were the days of sellers tossing tickets out a window to buyers at midnight. Sellers also paid a fee to StubHub, charged as a percentage of the sale price. StubHub shared about half its fees with MLBAM. In 2011, that amounted to more than $60 million. MBLAM then funneled a portion of those funds to the 30 teams.

Fans rejoiced. During the 2011 season, more than 8 million MLB tickets sold on StubHub, up from 6 million in 2010.

But many teams weren’t as thrilled. The Yankees, in particular, were a vocal critic of StubHub’s pricing policies. With no price floor, Yankees tickets were often available on StubHub for less than $5, a price significantly below the lowest ticket price available at the box office or on Yankees.com.  Critics countered that Yankees ticket prices were too high, creating a fertile market for very cheap tickets on the secondary market. But even teams with lower ticket prices lost sales to StubHub.

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