In 2011, the Pirates received 2.5 WAR and a 92 wRC+ out of their catchers, mostly because Ryan Doumit and Chris Snyder spent most of the summer on the DL. Pittsburgh declined the duo’s expensive options after the season, and today they brought in a new backstop via free agency, former Dodger Rod Barajas. The damage: one-year and $4 million with a club option for 2013 worth $3.5 million. It’s not often you see an option worth less than money than the guaranteed years, but I digress.

At 36 years old, Barajas is a known quantity. He’s managed to match or exceed a .307 wOBA in three of the last four years, though his on-base percentage hasn’t been able to crack .295 since 2007 – he’s had to make up for it by providing power, which is exactly what he’s done. Barajas is a Grade-A hacker that can punish mistakes, hitting at least 11 homers in his seven seasons with 300 or more plate appearances. He’s gone deep at least 16 times in each of the last three seasons, something accomplished by exactly one catcher in the long history of the Pirates franchise: Jim Pagliaroni in 1965, who hit 17.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Tuesday, we took a quick look at the competitive balance in the MLB, and I made the claim that baseball may have more parity than most leagues, but it also has want of greater balance. During the course of the piece, I made this statement:

The NFL has decided it wants payroll to have essentially no impact on winning, so teams basically trot out the same amount of money every Sunday and hope their money was better-spent. Is that what the MLB wants?

Aft’wards, Paul Swydan pointed out to me that indeed NFL salaries are not flat. Despite their hard cap, their hefty revenue sharing, and their tight spandex pants, the NFL still exhibits nearly a $77M gap between the biggest and lowest payroll — impressive, but still nothing compared to the MLB:

Read the rest of this entry »

October is the month. October is the month you have to survive if you are a general manager of a losing team. Survive that month and your chances of making it through another season skyrocket. In fact, looking through the prism of past firings, the distance between October (Andy MacPhail) and November (Bill Smith) is greater than a mere sum of the days.

Comb through the Baseball America executive database and add in the missing information, and you’ve got something like 59 general manager firings since 1950. That might not seem like a large sample, but a firing is a rare occurrence. Many general managers come to the end of a contract on a flagging team and are allowed to leave. Most others resign if the writing is on the wall. A firing suggests a difference in opinion about the team. It’s a jarring, rare moment, born of conflict.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last off season, I looked at the chances of a SP going on the DL. I have finally had time to go back and look at how my predictions fared.

The predictions used logistic regression to find the percentage chance that a pitcher would end up on the DL. I used age, games started in the previous 3 years and how many of the previous 3 years did the pitcher go on the DL. The equation I ended up with was:

1/(1+e^(-z))
where:
z = (.2209)(Years with Trips to DL)+(-0.0040)(GS in last 3 year)+(0.0509)(Age in previous season)-1.7692

Using the equation, I projected the chance that a starter would go on the DL and here is a list of those projections.

Read the rest of this entry »

Some of the following twirlers can really play the game of ball called base!

In 2011, a total of 272 different pitchers started a game in the MLB — that’s an average of 9 starters per team. In other words, five starters is not enough. Successful MLB organizations need pitching depth — and lots of it. Some teams may need a 7th or 8th starter for only 1 game, but ask the Boston Red Sox how important 1 game is.

For teams in the need, the 2012 starting pitcher free agent list has some value and some worthy risks out there, but as with every year, no team should expect the free agent market to have all the answers. The following list, though not exhaustive, runs down the most important names of the 2012 free agents:

Top Tier — Starters who promise big contracts and big seasons.
C.J. Wilson (LHP, Age 31 next season, free agent)
CC Sabathia (LHP, 31, may opt out)
Hiroki Kuroda (RHP, 37, FA)
Edwin Jackson (RHP, 28, FA)
Mark Buehrle (LHP, 33, FA)
Javier Vazquez (RHP, 35, FA)

The Obvious One, Mr. C.J. Wilson, finally promises to pull in that contract big enough to purchase his long-awaited solid-gold rocket car. Wilson, the heat-hurling lord of the lefties figures to have at least two very impressive suitors — the New York Yankees and his present team, the Texas Rangers. Since becoming a starter two years ago, he has posted a combined 10.5 WAR, sporting an ace-worth 3.24 FIP this year.

Not only does Wilson have a shot to break the bank, but there appears to be a chance that twirling titan CC Sabathia may opt out of the final four years of his contract with the Yankees. Sabathia has been yawningly awesome through his 10-year career, never posting a FIP- higher than 96 and assembling a career-best 2.88 FIP in 2011.

Read the rest of this entry »

Today’s installment of our series on the coming free agent market takes a look at some of the first base and DH options that will be available. While the 2012 free agent class is pretty shallow overall, at first base (and DH, if you include it) there is some true quality and a bit of depth. At the top of the list are an old player, a player some people think will get old fast, and a player some people think is older than he says he is.

Read the rest of this entry »

Pablo Sandoval hit for the cycle during the Giants’ 8-5 victory over the Rockies last night, ably and entertainingly broken down by Jeff Sullivan here. It has been quite a journey for Kung Fu Panda, who went from exciting young Giants third baseman to bench player during San Francisco’s run to the World Championship in 2010. Criticized by the organization for his weight, he came into 2011 slimmed-down and has returned to his impressive pre-2010 performance level. What makes the timing of the cycle so interesting is that it comes so soon after reports surfaced that he has gained back much of the weight he lost during the off-season. Sandoval is a big guy, but is he the biggest-boned player to hit for a cycle since the beginning of FanGraph’s play-by-play data (1974)?

Read the rest of this entry »

This weekend, the Pittsburgh Pirates reportedly extended General Manager Neal Huntington through 2014 with a club option for 2015. Huntington was nearing the end of his prior contract, but the length of the new contract shows that ownership has confidence in the direction in which he is taking things.

Read the rest of this entry »

How much do we really know about Jose Tabata? The Pittsburgh Pirates seem to think he’s a valuable commodity since they locked him up with a six-year-deal. While Tabata has accumulated only 770 plate appearances at the major league level, the Pirates were comfortable enough with his performances that they decided he was part of the team’s future. Tabata’s performance in the majors has been admirable — and the deal doesn’t get that expensive until 2017 — but there are still some questions about Tabata that could make this deal worse than it looks.
Read the rest of this entry »

With the non-waiver trade deadline past us, we can take a step back and see how each contender upgraded its roster. Because the season is two-thirds over, these players might not have an enormous impact. But for a contender sitting on the fringe, or a leader wanting to solidify its position, these acquisitions could make enough of a difference now, and then a bigger one come playoff time, when everyone starts from scratch.

To project the positional upgrade the team will receive, we’ll look at the wRAA the team has received so far from the position, the projected wRAA for the incumbent, and the projected wRAA for the replacement, based on ZiPS rest of season. We’ll assume 230 PA, which is based on a prorated 700 PA season. I’m leaving out defense, because I’m not comfortable projecting 1/3 of a season. I’m also leaving out guys such as Jerry Hairston, who are injury fill-ins rather than upgrades.

Read the rest of this entry »