It has been a fun and exciting week of awards and the debates around them. Now it is time to get serious. We have just finished celebrating the best players of the 2012 season, whether or not one agrees with those officially recognized as such. Snarky jerks (present writer very much included) have had fun at the expense of the worst. Only one task remains: acknowledging those in the middle, the most average position players of 2012. One might think this is no big deal. I disagree. Isn’t the bulls-eye right in the middle of the target?

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s the bottom of the eighth inning. Men are on first and third base, there’s one out and your team is down by one run. The opposing team has one of the best ground-ball pitchers on the hill, and the infield is playing back and is looking for a double play. All you need is a fly ball to tie the game and significantly swing your chances of winning.

So who do you want at the plate?

It’s likely that the opposing manager will either bring in a ground-ball specialist or just tell the pitcher to stay away from pitches that could be hit in the air to the outfield. Knowing who you’d want to hit requires an understanding of what pitches are the most likely to induce a ground ball — and what hitters manage to hit fly balls against those pitches most often.

Read the rest of this entry »

That’s right: end of the season, time for me to hand out awards based on semi-goofy. questionable stats. Along with the Carter-Batista Award, this is one of the first I started publishing.. In fact, my very first post at FanGraphs (three years this week! Time flies when you’re wasting it.) back in 2009 was a King of Little Things award presentation. You can also check out the 2010 and 2011 versions for the thrilling results. So which 2012 hitter contributed to most his teams wins in ways not measurable by traditional linear weights?

Read the rest of this entry »

Back on October 1st, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported the Pirates may not tender a contract to Jeff Karstens despite his success in limited action this season. The 30-year-old posted a 3.97 ERA and 3.32 FIP, including an impressive 4.40 K/BB (a career high by nearly a point and a half). But he only made 15 starts and threw just 90.2 innings. He has yet to throw more than 162.1 innings in a season, leading to durability questions:

“He’s doing everything he can to get the best out of his abilities,” [GM Neal] Huntington said. “Unfortunately at times, his body lets him down, and it’s been various body parts.”

Considering the Pirates will have to pay Karstens somewhere around $5 million — he made $3.1 million in his second arbitration season last year — it isn’t surprising nor irrational to see the club mulling nontendering him. Despite his success last season, he doesn’t have a good history — just a 4.44 ERA and 4.55 FIP in 592.1 career innings — and the Pirates are in their usual payroll crunch thanks to the small market.

Most seasons, it probably wouldn’t be worth paying much mind to this situation. But a look at this year’s dreadful free agent class suggests otherwise.

Read the rest of this entry »

Likely waiting tastefully until the Talk Like a Pirate Day celebrations were in the rear view mirror, longtime Pittsburgh (and short-time Seattle and Atlanta) shortstop Jack Wilson, who was released by Atlanta back in August, is reportedly going to retire after the season. The first thing I think of when I think of Jack Wilson is how I used to always get him mixed up with former teammate catcher/outfielder/first baseman Craig Wilson. Remember when the “Wilson Brothers” and Jason Bay were part of a future Pirates contender? Good thing those miserable days are over. HOKA HEY.

Anyway, Jack Wilson’s reputation was based almost completely on the very good glove he displayed in his prime. Yeah, there was that 2004 season in which he hit .308/.335/.459 (103 wRC+), made the All-Star Game, and people talked about it being a “breakout” year for him. Actually — and I can’t believe this happened to a guy who walked in under four percent of his plate appearances — it looks like that was probably mostly random variation. That was Wilson’s only major-league season with above-average offense, and his career line is .265/.306/.366 (74 WRC+). Despite this, his glove made him a valuable player in his prime, and that was what one should really focus on when thinking of his career.

However, even a glove-first shortstop will manage some big hits over 5,339 plate appearances. So, in honor of his impending retirement, let’s use the story stat, Win Probability Added (WPA), to look at three of Jack Wilson’s biggest hits in terms of their in-game impact.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Cardinals must be glad they won’t be seeing the Pirates again this season. Not because the Pirates were a particular thorn in the Cardinals’ side — the Pirates won the season series 8-7, but the Cardinals have had greater struggles against the Braves (1-5) and, oddly enough, the Phillies (2-5). No, the Cardinals must be glad because they’ve seen the last of Pedro Alvarez, at least until a potential playoff matchup.

Alvarez closed the season series with a home run, a double and three RBI as part of a 2-for-4 night, bringing his line for the series up to 23-for-58 with four doubles, seven home runs and seven walks. All-in-all, Alvarez compiled a .534 wOBA throughout the assault. More importantly, with the Cardinals and Pirates separated by just one game in the standings, Alvarez made the damage count — in just 15 games, Alvarez produced a massive 1.7 WPA.

Read the rest of this entry »

Erik Bedard is exactly the sort of pitcher a team signs to a one-year contract, and last December, the Pirates signed Bedard to a one-year contract worth $4.5 million. At the time, I’m guessing the Pirates figured they probably wouldn’t still have Bedard come September. He’d be an interesting wild card for a Pirates team with an outside shot, but more likely he’d either get hurt or traded to a contender. You don’t sign Erik Bedard because you’re making big plans around Erik Bedard.

The calendar is just about to turn, and, sure enough, the Pirates no longer have Erik Bedard. Viewed that way, this has played out about as expected. But Bedard isn’t known to be hurt, nor has he been traded away to a contender. Rather, the Pirates simply released Bedard outright, citing inconsistency and under-performance. The thinking with Bedard has long been that he’ll be effective as long as he’s healthy. He’s been healthy, and lately, he’s been ineffective.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Pirates are off today and will play a weekend series against the Reds in Cincinnati. Pittsburgh will enter the series either 2.5 or 3.5 games behind the Reds in the National League Central, depending on the outcome of the Reds game this afternoon against the Padres. At 60-44, the Pirates lead the race for the first wild card with the Braves, Cardinals, and the three NL West contenders — Dodgers, Giants and Diamondbacks — all within 5.5 games.

The Pirates upgraded at several positions at the trade deadline, adding Wandy Rodriguez to the starting rotation and Travis Snider to the outfield. Gaby Sanchez, obtained from the Marlins, took over first base from Casey McGehee, who was exchanged for reliever Chad Qualls.

But the trade for Snider sent pitcher Brad Lincoln to the Blue Jays, a move that may significantly weaken the Pirates’ bullpen for the last two months of the season, particularly against left-handed batters. With a large portion of the Pirates’ remaining games against the Reds, Cardinals and Cubs — all of which have very good lefty power bats — bullpen ineffectiveness against lefties may hurt the Pirates down the stretch.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Pittsburgh Pirates have built up a pretty good farm system under Neal Huntington’s watch. Our own Marc Hulet ranked them ninth before the season, and over at ESPN, Keith Law ranked them eighth. They have also simulteanously been upgrading their Major League core, and have morphed into a contender this season. To do this at the same time, you have to get a little bit lucky, and you have to be a little bit creative and you can’t be squeamish about taking risks. They showed the latter two elements in trades both yesterday — when they acquired Travis Snider — and today by making two deals that essentially swap out Casey McGehee for Gaby Sanchez.

Read the rest of this entry »

There’s been a lot to like about Alex Anthopolous’ work so far as the Toronto Blue Jays General Manager. On Monday night, he traded Travis Snider, a 24-year-old outfielder dripping with power, for Brad Lincoln, a 27-year-old maybe-reliever maybe-starter in the midst of a career season in the Pirates bullpen. Twitter was incredulous and awarded Neal Huntington the win immediately. There’s probably more to this… right?

Read the rest of this entry »