Archive for Pirates

Chicago Cubs Sign LHP Paul Maholm


NOTE: The left-handed Paul McCartney should NOT be
confused with his Maholmish southclaw brethren.

Late Monday night, Paul Maholm broke the news via his own Twitter account that he has signed with the Chicago Cubs. This morning, Bruce Levine reported that the deal will pay him $4.25 million for 2012 with a $500,000 buyout of a $6.5 million option for 2013, so the deal will either be 1/4.75 or 2/10.75. This puts his guaranteed money at just slightly less than what the Indians took on to acquire Derek Lowe. If he pitches well and the Cubs pick up the option, he’ll essentially have gotten the same deal as Chris Capuano. The market for this kind of pitcher has been pretty clearly defined.

What can we expect from Maholm? And is he a good fit for the Cubs rotation?

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Casey McGehee Is a Pirate

Well that didn’t take long. Mere hours after signing Aramis Ramirez to man the hot corner for the next three seasons, the Milwaukee Brewers traded former third baseman Casey McGehee to the Pittsburgh Pirates for Jose Veras. While McGehee exceeded expectations with the Brewers initially — he slumped badly last season — and was eventually replaced by Jerry Hairston Jr. Will a change of scenery resurrect the bat of “Mighty Casey?”

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McLouth Signs With Pittsburgh

After accumulating -1.0 WAR over the past two years in Atlanta, the Braves declined their 2012 option on outfielder Nate McLouth and allowed the former Gold Glove center fielder — yes, Gold Glover, seriously — to reach the free agent market.

A sizzling market never materialized for the 30-year-old, but the Pittsburgh Pirates are reportedly poised to sign McLouth to a one-year deal. It will bring McLouth back to his old stomping ground in his glory days, when he was considered a breakout star after slugging 26 home runs and posting a .369 wOBA with the Pirates in 2008.

He will not be returning to Pittsburgh in the same capacity as when he left, though. Andrew McCutchen now patrols center field. Jose Tabata and Alex Presley have the inside track at the corner outfield spots. It seems McLouth was brought back to Pittsburgh to serve as the fourth outfielder and mentor the young kids.

McLouth is simply not the hitter that he once was. He still boasts a walk rate consistently north of 11% — it was 13.7% in 2011 — and he still runs the bases exceedingly well, but the wheels have fallen off at the plate after two straight seasons of declining ISO numbers and sub-.700 OPS. Consider the fact that his defensive numbers continue to be well below-average, and it’s perhaps surprising he even garnered a major-league deal.

The good news is that Pittsburgh now have an improvement over Xavier Paul, who served as the fourth outfielder for the Pirates in 2011. His .286 wOBA and questionable defense has led to a career -0.3 WAR over 183 games in three seasons. McLouth will get on base more than Xavier Paul, and he will likely hit for more power. So, at least the move is an upgrade as a whole.

Some speculation abounds that this McLouth deal could mean Garrett Jones gets non-tendered to save a couple million dollars. That would be an unfortunate result, as Jones hits for more power, posts similar walk rates, and can (kind of) play both corner outfield positions.

McLouth, on the other hand, has the advantage that he can serve as McCutchen’s backup in center field. Jones cannot function in that capacity whatsoever. That’s really the only thing that Nate McLouth has over Garrett Jones. Well, that and baserunning. McLouth had a +4.2 BsR in 2011, while Jones was below-average at -4.3 BsR.

It should also be noted that neither McLouth nor Jones can handle left-handed pitching with any consistency, which could also lead the Pirates to non-tender Jones. The organization would be wise to pair McLouth with another reserve outfielder with a right-handed bat; perhaps Gorkys Hernandez — who hit .283/.348/.392 in Triple-A Indianapolis — is ready to make his big-league debut.

Whatever happens with Garrett Jones and the other backup outfield position, though, Nate McLouth is back in Pittsburgh. He will hope to find a bit of the magic that helped him become one of the more exciting young outfielders in the game just four years ago.


I Got Mine: the Union, the Draft, and Jeff Francoeur

Prior the announcement of new Collective Bargaining Agreement yesterday, many thought that one sticking point might be “hard slotting” of signing bonuses for draftees. While hard slotting did not literally happen, the system of penalties for teams going over the “draft cap” looks like it will have the same intended effect. I am far from an expert on the draft, but what is particularly interesting to me is that some seemed to have been surprised that the union would agree to this sort of provision. A bit of reflection makes it clear why the union not only let it pass, but was probably in favor of it. Amateurs, both domestic and international, are not members of the union. Money that is going to those non-members is not going to union members. Whether or not the new CBA is good for baseball overall (I tend to agree with those who think it is not) is one issue, the union’s self-interest is another. Rather than tackling it as a whole, I want to take at the look at the latter by focusing on some interesting quotes from a long-time internet favorite: Jeff Francoeur.

It is a bit uncomfortable to “pick on” Francoeur. It is not just that I am not worried about beating a dead horse. I have read and heard directly from people, people who are far from being fans of Francoeur’s game, that he really is a genuinely “good guy” (maybe it is a front for the press, but if so, he maintains it quite consistently). He exceeded all reasonable expectations to have a good 2011 season for the Royals — something for which both he and the Royals front office that signed him should be commended (in retrospect, at least). I am not a fan of the contract extension he received, but it was not awful.

However, none of that is at issue here. What piqued my interest in Francoeur last night was coming across this August 2011 article from the Kansas City Star about the (then-upcoming) CBA negotiations. The article rightly notes that the lauded Kansas City minor league system, which received a fair bit of mainstream national attention this season with the graduation of players like Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, was largely built not only on big draft day bonuses for players like Hosmer and Moustakas, but also over-slot bonuses for players who dropped down because of sign-ability concerns such as Wil Myers. The article discusses the well-known, record-setting draft spending in recent years of rebuilding small-market franchises such as the Royals and Pirates, and how those franchises were “overspending” on the draft in order to make up for their relative inability to compete in free agency. It also has interesting quotes from Royals assistant general manager J. J. Picollo, who claims that the Royals have no problems with spending big in the draft, and general manager Dayton Moore, who says that while the Royals like the (now former) system, the team will have to adapt its strategies to the new context. Scott Boras is quoted saying what you would expect him to say: that spending restrictions are unfair because, among other things, they treat every draft class as equal, even though that obviously is not the case (simply compare the 2010 draft to the 2011 draft).

This article also contains statements such as this:

The general view among industry insiders is that the players’ union will staunchly oppose any “hard slotting” in the draft, rebelling against any policy that could be considered a salary cap — even if that cap is relegated to players who have never played an inning of professional baseball.

While we do not know exactly what happened during the negotiations, it seems fair to infer from the results that the union probably did not “staunchly oppose” the draft spending restrictions. Indeed, there are indications from the article in the Star that point in the opposite direction. While agents such as Boras have an obvious interest in not having draft spending restrictions, current major league players were not at one with agents like Boras in this case, as this quote from a member of the player’s association committee indicates:

“My problem sometimes,” Royals outfielder Jeff Francoeur says, “is that you get a first-round pick, and that’s a lot of money to pay a high school kid who’s 18, and you don’t exactly know what you’re always gonna get. But at the same time, that’s the great thing about baseball — the free-agent market — you can get what you can get.”

Francoeur is serving on a players’ association committee as both sides prepare for negotiation, and he’s thought about the options. Maybe you move the signing deadline up to the beginning of July, he says, and that would lessen the leverage of draft picks and get them out playing earlier.

This much is certain: The multimillion dollar signing bonuses are catching the eye of veteran major-leaguers.

“I think it’s just getting out of control now,” Francoeur says.

Were things “out of control” prior to the new CBA? It depends on your point of view, I suppose. From Francoeur’s current perspective as a journeyman veteran, they may have been. The Royals convinced local boy (picked fifth overall in the 2011 draft) Bubba Starling to sign with them rather than go to the University Nebraska to play football by giving him a $7.5 million bonus. That is slightly more than the guaranteed annual salary players like Francoeur and Clint Barmes will get in their recent two-year deals. Maybe Starling’s sounded a bit familiar to Francoeur. After all, in 2002, there was a certain first-rounder the Braves wanted to sign. He was a local, two-sport star who had a commitment to play football at Clemson. The threat of leaving for college football probably helped him out a bit. Although he was only drafted 23rd, he received a $2.2 million signing bonus (a record bonus for the Braves until they signed number seven pick Mike Minor in 2009). Whatever happened to that guy?

Of course, there is a difference between the fifth spot (where Starling was picked this season) and the 23rd, where Francoeur was picked in 2002. But Francoeur as an amateur did embody a couple properties of the sort of players that people are concerned are at issue with the new CBA: the multi-sport high athlete, and the player getting more than one might expect at a lower spot because he slipped due to a college commitment. One player is not a full study, but this does not indicate that things are now “out of control.” Francoeur received a $2.2 million bonus to sign with the Braves in 2002. In 2011, the 23rd overall pick was Alex Meyer, who received a $2 million bonus to sign with the Nationals. In fact, by my quick count there were ten players picked above the 23rd spot in the 2011 draft who received smaller bonuses than Francoeur did ten years ago. One might argue that the 2002 draft was “deeper,” (I am not making that argument, just to be clear) but that would grant Boras’s point about restrictions on draft spending not allowing for flexibility to account for such things.

This is not meant to call Francoeur out as a hypocrite (at least not any more than most of us), a bad person, or anything like that. His comments from August do put certain things into an interesting perspective, such as this anecdote from Lee Judge (whose Judging the Royals blog and accompanying Ron Polk points system deserve their own post or series of posts on NotGraphs) about Francoeur asking the team to take down a clubhouse picture of some of the minor league prospects. Judge took this as an example of Francoeur showing veteran leadership. Will McDonald pointed out at the time what is apparent after reading the August article: Francoeur’s request could just as easily be interpreted as an indication of unenlightened self-interest.

[Judge also writes: “If you want to know how to approach the game, teammates or life, watch Jeff Francoeur.” I am not making this up.]

I would not want anyone to take away from this that I am anti-MLBPA or anti-labor in general. The opposite is closer to the truth. However, I do think that Francoeur’s attitude towards “out of control” signing bonuses towards draftees (who, like their international compatriots, had their future fates altered without being party to the negotiations) likely reflects that of his fellow MLBPA members: I got mine, and now I want it again. That attitude is far from commendable, but it is sadly understandable.


Barmes To The Buccos

Shortstop is one of the deepest positions on the market this winter. The Pittsburgh Pirates made an early splash in the free agent waters and signed shortstop Clint Barmes to a two-year, $10.5M deal.

Pittsburgh chose to explore other shortstop options outside of Ronny Cedeno this winter. While Cedeno was statistically the best defender on the team in 2011 (5.9 UZR), he has historically never produced much at the plate. His paltry .277 career wOBA and .271 wOBA in 2011 are both evidence of that.

Barmes is a natural fit with the Pirates because he replaces the sound defense that Cedeno provided last year, but also increases the production at the plate to a respectable level. The 31-year-old Barmes has double-digit home run power and posted a .308 wOBA — which may not be impressive, but it is just below league average (20 out of 34) amongst shortstops with at least 350 plate appearances in 2011 and is enough due to his glovework.

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The Buccos Bring In Barajas

In 2011, the Pirates received 2.5 WAR and a 92 wRC+ out of their catchers, mostly because Ryan Doumit and Chris Snyder spent most of the summer on the DL. Pittsburgh declined the duo’s expensive options after the season, and today they brought in a new backstop via free agency, former Dodger Rod Barajas. The damage: one-year and $4 million with a club option for 2013 worth $3.5 million. It’s not often you see an option worth less than money than the guaranteed years, but I digress.

At 36 years old, Barajas is a known quantity. He’s managed to match or exceed a .307 wOBA in three of the last four years, though his on-base percentage hasn’t been able to crack .295 since 2007 – he’s had to make up for it by providing power, which is exactly what he’s done. Barajas is a Grade-A hacker that can punish mistakes, hitting at least 11 homers in his seven seasons with 300 or more plate appearances. He’s gone deep at least 16 times in each of the last three seasons, something accomplished by exactly one catcher in the long history of the Pirates franchise: Jim Pagliaroni in 1965, who hit 17.

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MLB, NFL Parity: Tell Your Kids To Play Baseball

On Tuesday, we took a quick look at the competitive balance in the MLB, and I made the claim that baseball may have more parity than most leagues, but it also has want of greater balance. During the course of the piece, I made this statement:

The NFL has decided it wants payroll to have essentially no impact on winning, so teams basically trot out the same amount of money every Sunday and hope their money was better-spent. Is that what the MLB wants?

Aft’wards, Paul Swydan pointed out to me that indeed NFL salaries are not flat. Despite their hard cap, their hefty revenue sharing, and their tight spandex pants, the NFL still exhibits nearly a $77M gap between the biggest and lowest payroll — impressive, but still nothing compared to the MLB:


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October Pain for General Managers

October is the month. October is the month you have to survive if you are a general manager of a losing team. Survive that month and your chances of making it through another season skyrocket. In fact, looking through the prism of past firings, the distance between October (Andy MacPhail) and November (Bill Smith) is greater than a mere sum of the days.

Comb through the Baseball America executive database and add in the missing information, and you’ve got something like 59 general manager firings since 1950. That might not seem like a large sample, but a firing is a rare occurrence. Many general managers come to the end of a contract on a flagging team and are allowed to leave. Most others resign if the writing is on the wall. A firing suggests a difference in opinion about the team. It’s a jarring, rare moment, born of conflict.

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Revisiting 2011 SP DL Projections

Last off season, I looked at the chances of a SP going on the DL. I have finally had time to go back and look at how my predictions fared.

The predictions used logistic regression to find the percentage chance that a pitcher would end up on the DL. I used age, games started in the previous 3 years and how many of the previous 3 years did the pitcher go on the DL. The equation I ended up with was:

1/(1+e^(-z))
where:
z = (.2209)(Years with Trips to DL)+(-0.0040)(GS in last 3 year)+(0.0509)(Age in previous season)-1.7692

Using the equation, I projected the chance that a starter would go on the DL and here is a list of those projections.

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Free Agent Market: Starting Pitcher

Some of the following twirlers can really play the game of ball called base!

In 2011, a total of 272 different pitchers started a game in the MLB — that’s an average of 9 starters per team. In other words, five starters is not enough. Successful MLB organizations need pitching depth — and lots of it. Some teams may need a 7th or 8th starter for only 1 game, but ask the Boston Red Sox how important 1 game is.

For teams in the need, the 2012 starting pitcher free agent list has some value and some worthy risks out there, but as with every year, no team should expect the free agent market to have all the answers. The following list, though not exhaustive, runs down the most important names of the 2012 free agents:

Top Tier — Starters who promise big contracts and big seasons.
C.J. Wilson (LHP, Age 31 next season, free agent)
CC Sabathia (LHP, 31, may opt out)
Hiroki Kuroda (RHP, 37, FA)
Edwin Jackson (RHP, 28, FA)
Mark Buehrle (LHP, 33, FA)
Javier Vazquez (RHP, 35, FA)

The Obvious One, Mr. C.J. Wilson, finally promises to pull in that contract big enough to purchase his long-awaited solid-gold rocket car. Wilson, the heat-hurling lord of the lefties figures to have at least two very impressive suitors — the New York Yankees and his present team, the Texas Rangers. Since becoming a starter two years ago, he has posted a combined 10.5 WAR, sporting an ace-worth 3.24 FIP this year.

Not only does Wilson have a shot to break the bank, but there appears to be a chance that twirling titan CC Sabathia may opt out of the final four years of his contract with the Yankees. Sabathia has been yawningly awesome through his 10-year career, never posting a FIP- higher than 96 and assembling a career-best 2.88 FIP in 2011.

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