Because the author of this post is someone who mistakenly believed in the “transformative power of literature” as an undergraduate, $6.5 million remains only a hypothetical sum of money for me as a person. In the context of major-league baseball, however — and, specifically, in the context of compensating slightly above-average major leaguers — it’s roughly equivalent to zero dollars. It also, turns out, is roughly how much Mike Moustakas will earn in 2018.

Handsome Jeff Passan reports from the front lines of Baseball:

Jeff Sullivan will address the deal in greater depth tomorrow. For the moment, however, a collection of three bullet points should suffice to convey the improbability of this news.

Consider:

• Over the last three years, Moustakas has been worth $29.6, $5.8, and $17.6 million by the methodology used at this site — or just under $18 million annually on average.
• According to this site’s depth-chart projections, Moustakas is likely to produce about two-and-a-half wins in 2018 — or the equivalent of about $23 million, if one presumes (as people seem to presume) that a win is worth roughly $9 million.
• When Dave Cameron composed his list of the offseason’s top free agents, he ranked Moustakas eighth, projecting a deal for five years and $95.0 million. The crowd estimated only a slightly lower figure: five years and $85.0 million.

What all this information suggests is that Mike Moustakas probably should — to the extent that anyone should — be earning something just shy of $20 million in 2018. He won’t be, though. He’ll be earning probably $6.5 million, as noted above.

That’s merely one reason why this deal seems inexplicable. Why else, though, is because other notable alumni from the Royals’ world-championship team appear to be faring well enough.

For each player here, I’ve included not just his projected 2018 numbers but also the terms of the contract to which he agreed this offseason. Cain and Hosmer both signed for amounts greater than estimated by either Dave Cameron or FanGraphs’ readers. Dyson signed with Arizona for less than anticipated; however, he agreed to a greater sum of guaranteed money than Moustakas. Which, allow me to repeat that in slightly different terms: Jarrod Dyson received a larger guaranteed deal this offseason than Mike Moustakas.

The objectively slowest offseason ever has been surprising in a number of ways. This way is number + 1.

Even if you’ve been living under a rock or taking a between-jobs vacation, you’re probably aware that the Royals lost their longtime first baseman and franchise staple, Eric Hosmer, to free agency. Earlier this month, the Padres signed Ol’ Hos to an eight-year, $144 million deal, no doubt because their new head of Research and Development lobbied for the move (even after having previously declared him one of the winter’s free-agent landmines).

On Wednesday, the Royals filled their positional vacancy by committing $140.5 million less than the Padres did, inking Lucas Duda to a one-year, $3.5 million deal with plate-appearance-based incentives — $100,000 for reaching 300 PA, and for each 25 PA interval up to 600 PA — possibly yielding another $1.3 million.

While Duda and Hosmer are both listed at 6-foot-4, swing left-handed, and crossed paths in the 2015 World Series — most notably when the latter’s wild throw home in the ninth inning of Game 5 allowed the former to score the game-tying run — there are obviously some differences between the two. Hosmer, a 2008 first-round pick out of a Florida high school, has dark hair but is viewed within the industry as something of a golden boy, while Duda, a 2007 seventh-round pick out of the University of Southern California, is blond but seems to have been treated like the proverbial red-headed stepchild.

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Trevor Oaks hopes to stand tall on a big-league mound this season. In order to do so, he’ll need to regain his worm-killing ways. The 24-year-old right-hander relies heavily on his sinker, which didn’t do its usual diving last summer. One year after logging a 64.5% ground-ball rate at Double-A Tulsa, Oaks saw that number tumble to 50.8% with Triple-A Oklahoma City.

Oaks is a member of the Royals now, having been acquired by Kansas City from the Los Angeles Dodgers in January’s Scott Alexander deal. He believes that his old bread and butter will be accompanying him to America’s heartland. Not only is he fully recovered from an oblique issue that dogged his 2017 campaign, he was able hit the reset button on his mechanics over the offseason.

And then there are the lessons learned. Despite not having his best stuff, Oaks put up a solid 3.64 ERA in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League — and a veteran teammate deserves some of the credit. When words of wisdom were in order, Justin Masterson was there to provide them.

———

Oaks on Masterson’s influence: “Baseball-wise, Masty talked to me a lot about tunneling and making sure that everything comes out on the same plane. Even though we have different arm slots, the same principles apply. His slider is like a Sergio Romo slider, so that wasn’t exactly in my bag of tricks, but with his sinker… he turns the ball over a little bit more.

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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Esteban Loaiza’s drug bust and the Cubs’ Yu Darvish signing, then preview the 2018 Indians (15:31) with writer/editor Pete Beatty, and the 2018 Royals (44:16) with Kansas City Star Royals beat writer Rustin Dodd.

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Taylor Hearn is the top left-handed pitching prospect in the Pittsburgh Pirates system. Long and lanky, the 23-year-old native of Royse City, Texas possesses a high-octane heater and a changeup that he considers his best pitch. He also has a background unlike that of any other player in professional baseball.

According to the young southpaw, his grandfather was the first African-American to attend Oklahoma State on a rodeo scholarship, and the first professional black cowboy. Dubbed “Mr. Black Rodeo,” Cleo Hearn joined the calf roping circuit in 1959.

The tradition was passed down, both within the family and throughout Texas. Robby Hearn followed in his father’s footsteps, and he went on to teach his own son the tricks of the trade.

“Growing up, it was kind of bred into me to do that,” Taylor Hearn told me. “I did it until I was 17. It’s still a big thing in Texas, including for African Americans. Cory Solomon has been in the national finals the past few years.”

Hearn doesn’t do much calf roping these days —“only now and then, because I don’t have the time” — but he does hope to get back into it down the road. For now, he’ll settle for (ahem) showing his girlfriend the ropes. Read the rest of this entry »

Monday afternoon, the Royals and A’s exchanged four players, and the most recognizable among them is also the least valuable. It’s one of those multiplayer trades that tends to be easy to ignore, and that’s made all the more true by the fact that the Royals have entered a down period, and the A’s might not yet have emerged from their own. But as I’ve repeated lately, every major-league move is interesting if you look at it long enough. And in this case, there are two notable players in particular. Two players who might be considered analytical standouts. Here’s the breakdown:

A’s get

• Ryan Buchter
• Brandon Moss
• $3.25 million

Royals get

• Jesse Hahn
• Heath Fillmyer

At first, you could interpret this as the A’s reuniting with a beloved slugger. It’s not so. Moss is likely to be dropped or flipped, and he’s only in here for the purposes of the Royals shedding about $5 million. From the A’s perspective, this is about landing Buchter, a much-needed lefty for the bullpen. For the Royals, they get to roll the dice on some pitchers. Fillmyer is the prospect. Hahn is arguably the more intriguing one.

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The free agencies and likely departures of Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer, and Mike Moustakas led most to believe that Kansas City was in for some kind of rebuild. It seemed likely than any such attempt at a rebuild would lead to major-league opportunities for upper-level prospects like Hunter Dozier, Samir Duenez, and Ryan O’Hearn and/or post-prospects like Cheslor Cuthbert and Raul Adalberto Mondesi to pass or fail the big-league test and establish themselves as Royals of the future.

For most of those players, such an opportunity is still likely to emerge. With the announcement on Friday, however, that Alcides Escobar would be returning to the Royals, the future for one of them has become less certain. The presence of Escobar and 2017 breakout Whit Merrifield raises immediate questions about Raul Mondesi’s prospects in Kansas City, as it appears his path to regular big-league playing time is once again blocked.

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In this slowest of markets, one of the players who might be most adversely affected is Mike Moustakas.

Some thought it was possible, as the offseason began, that Moustakas might receive a $100-million deal this winter. Not only was he a third baseman who’d just authored a 38-homer season, but he was also still on the right side of 30. Of course, that sort of deal hasn’t emerged. It seems increasingly unlikely to emerge with each day.

Dave predicted a five-year, $95-million pact for Moustakas. The crowd predicted a five-year deal, as well, for $10 million fewer overall. Neither option seems probable at the moment: no free agent to date has secured more than a three-year contract, and there hasn’t been much reported interested in Moustakas.

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With Austin Jackson reaching a two-year deal on Monday to play center field for the Giants, another potential landing spot for Lorenzo Cain has evaporated.

Typically, in the free-agency era, impact up-the-middle talents like Cain are not available on January 23rd. A year ago to the day, all of Dave Cameron’s top-19 free agents had signed. As of this January 23rd, just eight of his top 20 have found a home.

Cain is coming off a four-win season. Even with his injury issues, he ranks 21st in position-player WAR since 2015 (13.1). J.D. Martinez, by comparison, ranks 42nd in WAR during that same period. Martinez reportedly has a five-year offer on the table, though. We’re unaware of such interest in Cain. There is a case to be made that Cain is the best remaining positional free agent available and that he’s quickly becoming the best bargain.

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I noticed an underlying theme in both pieces I’ve written since coming back, along with many others written this offseason at FanGraphs. If you are a fan of a small- or medium-market team that will never spend to the luxury-tax line and thus always be at a disadvantage, do you want your team to try to always be .500 or better, or do you want them push all the chips in the middle for a smaller competitive window? In my stats vs. scouting article I referenced a progressive vs. traditional divide, which was broadly defined by design, but there are often noticeable differences in team-building strategies from the two overarching philosophies, which I will again illustrate broadly to show the two contrasting viewpoints.

The traditional clubs tend favor prospects with pedigree (bonus or draft position, mostly), with big tools/upside and the process of team-building is often to not push the chips into the middle (spending in free agency, trading prospects) until the core talents (best prospects and young MLB assets) have arrived in the big leagues and have established themselves. When that window opens, you do whatever you can afford to do within reason to make those 3-5 years the best you can and, in practice, it’s usually 2-3 years of a peak, often followed directly by a tear-down rebuild. The Royals appear to have just passed the peak stage of this plan, the Braves hope their core is established in 2019 and the Padres may be just behind the Braves (you could also argue the old-school Marlins have done this multiple times and are about to try again now).

On the progressive side, you have a more conservative, corporate approach where the club’s goal is to almost always have a 78-92 win team entering Spring Training, with a chance to make the playoffs every year, never with a bottom-ten ranked farm system, so they are flexible and can go where the breaks lead them. The valuation techniques emphasize the analytic more often, which can sometimes seem superior and sometimes seem foolish, depending on the execution. When a rare group of talent and a potential World Series contender emerges, the progressive team will push some chips in depending on how big the payroll is. The Rays have a bottom-five payroll and can only cash in some chips without mortgaging multiple future years, whereas the Indians and Astros are higher up the food chain and can do a little more when the time comes, and have done just that.

What we just saw in Pittsburgh (and may see soon in Tampa Bay) is what happens when a very low-payroll team sees a dip coming (controllable talent becoming uncontrolled soon) and doesn’t think there’s a World Series contender core, so they slide down toward the bottom end of that win range so that in a couple years they can have a sustainable core with a chance to slide near the top of it, rather than just tread water. Ideally, you can slash payroll in the down years, then reinvest it in the competing years (the Rays has done this in the past) to match the competitive cycle and not waste free-agent money on veterans in years when they are less needed. You could argue many teams are in this bucket, with varying payroll/margin for error: the D’Backs, Brewers, Phillies, A’s and Twins, along with the aforementioned Rays, Pirates, Indians and Astros.

Eleven clubs were over $175 million in payroll for the 2017 season (Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Giants, Nationals, Rangers, Orioles, Cubs, Angels), so let’s toss those teams out and ask fans of the other 19 clubs: if forced to pick one or the other, which of these overarching philosophies would you prefer to root for?