On Tuesday afternoon, the Kansas City Royals designated left-handed starter Jonathan Sanchez for assignment. The Royals, of course, acquired Sanchez and rightleft-handed pitcher Ryan Verdugo from the San Francisco Giants over the winter, in exchange for Melky Cabrera. At the time, the trade came in for criticism and praise on both sides, which suggested it was a fair deal. Obviously, it was not.

Sanchez started 12 games for the Royals this season but pitched only 53 1/3 innings, an average of fewer than six five innings per start. He was on the disabled list from early May to early June with left bicep tendinitis, the same maladay that kept him the disabled list for more than a month last season. With the Royals, Sanchez’s strikeout rate (6.08/9), walk rate (7.43/9), batting average against (.294), and WHIP (2.04) were all the worst of his career. His FIP was 6.42, the highest in the majors for starters with more than 50 innings pitched.

Throughout his career, which began with the Giants in 2006, Sanchez battled problems with his command. His walk rate never dipped below 4.00/9, even in 2010, his best season in the majors. And yet, there were games — and stretches of games — when Sanchez was quite effective. His no-hitter against the San Diego Padres on July 10, 2009 is one example, but there were others. Because even when Sanchez was wild, he still possessed — until this season — “swing-and-miss” stuff.

Let’s look at some video first, and then delve into the numbers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Fare thee well, father, mother. I’m off
to de-luck the f*** out of this s***.

With this All-Star break forcing to watch so little baseball, we now have a moment to drink up the frothy milkshake of statistics from the first half. So, you and I, we shall dissect the stats and find out who has been lucky, unlucky and a little of both.

Read the rest of this entry »

[Author’s note, Saturday, July 7, about 12:30 PM EST: I changed some of the formulations in the post that I felt were unclear, or, in some cases, incorrectly expressed. The essential point remains the same, but I just wanted to note this in case one wonders what some of the comments are about. I note this so no one feels like a “fast one” has been pulled with the changes.]

Despite some shaky la1te moments from their usually excellent bullpen, the Royals defeated the Blue Jays 9-6 last night behind their usual combination of a “That was good? Or okay? At least he didn’t give up 8 runs” start from Luke Hochevar, a barrage of singles, and a random home run from Yuniesky Betancourt. The primary engine of the singles train was young catcher Salvador Perez, who hit four singles in five plate appearances.

Perez has been on fire since returning from the disabled list (due to an injury in Spring Training), and his current 2012 line stands at .425/.425/.725 (216 wRC+). Of course, that is over only 40 plate appearances, but hey, if you look at his major-league line from 2011 (.331/.361/.473), he does seem to have the ability to hit for a high average with some pop. Over parts of two seasons, Perez has a .351/.374/.527 career line.

That is only 198 total career plate appearances. It appears that a strange phenomenon might have taken hold among some observers. I suspect that if Perez gone to the plate 198 times in a single season, it might have received less attention. However, since the sample has been broken up over two seasons, some people seem to have bought the idea that his hot (belated) start to 2012 somehow confirms that 2011 was “for real.” That seems obviously silly — we are still talking about less than 200 plate appearances. Perhaps this will sound just like another “small sample size” post, but nonetheless, let’s see we can glean from Perez’s performance at the plate in the majors so far and see what we can learn about him and about how we use numbers.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been a trying year for the Kansas City Royals. After being one of the better hitting outfits in the game last season, they have not hit nearly as well this year, and while the pitching has improved, they are currently down two starters in Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino as well. Still, the team has persevered. Since posting a 6-15 record in April, they have gone 23-20 — including five wins in their past six games — to remain on the periphery of the American League Central “race.” They are still not scoring enough runs to be taken seriously as we move closer to the All-Star break, but unlike many teams, Kansas City has a great in-house solution laying in wait in prospect Wil Myers.

Read the rest of this entry »

Lost in the Kansas City Royals’ Yuniesky Betancourt-fueled 5-3 extra-innings win over the Cardinals yesterday was that Alex Gordon tied his franchise record with five walks in a single game. Yeah, I’m as furious as the rest of you that this was overlooked. But hey, at least this time he at least scored a run. When Gordon originally set the record (as I am sure you all remember) back on July 30, 2008 against Oakland, he did not score once. (I remember that game well, as not long before that I had an argument with someone who said that Jose Guillen was the Royals’ only “feared” hitter, unlike that loser Gordon. Guillen hit right behind Gordon in this game. FEAR.)

It was an amazing feat, in a way, but not nearly the most times on base without scoring. In fact, since 1918, there have been 73 players who have gotten on base six or more times without scoring in regular season games. What follows is a look at the most extreme cases.

Read the rest of this entry »

Confession: while I enjoy no-hitters as much as most baseball fans, part of me wanted Johan Santana’s no-hitter to get broken up. That impulse did not stem from a particular animus against Santana or the Mets. It most certainly did not stem from a liking for the Cardinals. In fact, the desire only reared its head when Carlos Beltran faced Santana. I thought it would be cool if Beltran rocked one out of the park in the midst of a dominating display. What can I say: I like watching Carlos Beltran, and I feel like he “deserves” to have some more memorable moments on the positive side of the ledger. I believe Beltran has a Hall-worthy resume already, but he also shares a few characteristics of the sort of players who get overlooked, which makes me wonder if he will be left out in the cold.

Read the rest of this entry »

Danny Duffy is headed for surgery. After an MRI revealed a torn ulnar collateral ligament in Duffy’s left elbow, it looks like Tommy John surgery will sideline the left-hander until next season. A former top prospect in the Kansas City Royals’ farm system, Duffy reached the majors last season. And even though he struggled initially, the 23-year-old seemed to be making progress this year. And now that he’s out for the season, the Royals’ rise to prominence may be put on hold even longer.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Peter Bourjos trade rumors have started to circulate again. The primary discussant in the linked article is the Nationals, but the Royals, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays are also mentioned. With super-prospect Mike Trout in the majors, the Angels already having something of an outfield crunch and Bourjos flat-lining on offense so far this season, there is a surface rationality to the idea of trading him. Let’s briefly look at how Bourjos might fit into the plans of the teams allegedly interested in Bourjos before turning to the question of how this makes sense (or nonsense) for the Angels.

Read the rest of this entry »

The past weekend did not go well for the Kansas City Royals. They were not only swept during their opening series at home by division rival Cleveland, but the sweep was pretty humiliating. Although the Royals at least managed to make a game of it (including the obligatory Yunibomb) on Saturday, all three games exposed Kansas City’s starting pitching. The Royals do not get any respite — they welcome American League Central favorite Detroit to town today. If they thought Cleveland made mincemeat of their starters…

Some fans may be ready to jump off of the 2012 “Our Time” bandwagon. That is understandable (and we are all fans, so I will not pretend I am not subject to the same emotions), but to be “worried” about the Royals in the aftermath of this weekend’s sweep might sort of miss the point. If one wants to worry about the Royals, point that fretful energy in the right direction.

Read the rest of this entry »

Many writers scoffed when Ned Yost and the Kansas City Royals handed the closer’s role to right-hander Jonathan Broxton this spring. After all, Broxton is returning from an elbow injury that rendered him ineffective (5.63 FIP) and held him to only 14 appearances last season, while fellow right-hander Greg Holland burst onto the scene in 2011 with an 11.10 K/9 strikeout rate and a minuscule 2.21 FIP.

It only seemed natural that Greg Holland be given the job in the spring. He is arguably the best reliever in the Royals’ bullpen and was utterly dominating throughout all of 2011. The decision to hand the reins to Broxton was largely branded as the epitome of pandering to the baseball cliche of the “closer mentality.” Broxton possessed it because he had accumulated 84 saves over the course of his seven-year career. Holland, on the other hand, only has four career saves, so question marks remain as to whether he has closer mentality.

On Sunday afternoon against the Los Angeles Angels, however, Broxton entered the game in a save situation and struck out three consecutive hitters: Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells, and Kendrys Morales. While not three of the most dangerous hitters in the league, Broxton alleviated some of the fears concerning his effectiveness that the majority of Royals fans harbored heading into the season.

But, does this mean the Jonathan Broxton has returned?

The early results indicate that Broxton has turned a corner and should produce results closer to the strong 2006-2009 seasons, rather than the lackluster 2010-2011 seasons. The swinging strikes had been on the decline in each of the past two years, but he generated six swings-and-misses on Sunday on only fourteen pitches. While that 42.86% SwStr% is certainly not sustainable throughout the course of the season, it serves as a positive harbinger for subsequent performances as the season wears on.

Perhaps the most encouraging aspect to Broxton’s inning of work on Sunday was the rebound in velocity. His once overpowering fastball had decreased in velocity over the past couple of seasons, which ultimately played a significant role in his lessened effectiveness, but pitch f/x registered his average fastball velocity back at 2008-2009 levels.

Not only did Broxton throw his fastball significantly harder on Sunday than he has in previous years, but his slider was also ridiculous. The average velocity of his slider against the Los Angeles Angels was 90.04 MPH. The career high average for Broxton’s slider was in 2009, when he averaged 88.6 MPH over the course of the season. More importantly, he threw his slider five times and threw five strikes — three of them of the swinging variety.

One outing is far too little to officially declare Jonathan Broxton healthy and “back” to his elite level of performance. It could simply be a blip on the radar screen. However, his stellar spring performance (1.13 ERA and 12.4 K/9), his increased velocity on both his fastball and slider, and his clean bill of health all suggest that the right-hander is poised for a huge comeback season on the mound for the Royals.

After the season ends, the one-year, $4M contract that Broxton signed could be one of the biggest bargains of the offseason.