Archive for White Sox

2011 wOBA: By Batting Order

The following data is current through 5-30-2011.

If you, dear reader, are like me, then you agonize unnecessarily over every lineup on every team in every game. Aaron Rowand leading off?! Yargh! No! Carlos Gomez batting second for the Brewers?! WRONG. Aaron Miles batting anything?! Unforgivable.

Holding egos constant, inefficiency is the greatest enemy of success. With regards to lineups, however, teams can really only lose a handful of runs over the course of full season, but a handful of runs, in real terms, can mean the difference between the division or a boring October. So it’s a dicey proposition. A mismanaged lineup on the Royals team does not mean a whole lot because they will lose the division by several trillion runs. A few lost runs for the Rays, Yankees, or Red Sox, though, can mean the season.
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Fitting an Average Adam Dunn into the White Sox Lineup

It’s not as bad as it was a month ago. Then the White Sox were 10-19 and were scoring just 3.9 runs per game, which put them near the bottom of the league in most respects. Since then they’ve gone 15-12 and have scored 4.22 runs per game. That mark is second in the division only to Detroit, and has the Sox inching back into contention. As you can imagine, the Sox have seen many improvements on offense, going from a .295 wOBA in April to a .329 wOBA in May. That includes an improvement from Adam Dunn, who in creased his wOBA from .271 to .299 in the month of May. But he’s still well below expectations. Considering his spot in the Sox lineup, he really is holding them back.

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Gordon Beckham Is Broken

When the Chicago White Sox selected Gordon Beckham with the eighth-overall pick in the 2008 draft, the club thought it had nabbed a premium prospect whose polished game was nearly ready for the big leagues. The Georgia product tied for the Division I lead in home runs during his junior season, setting a new school record for career round-trippers while leading the Bulldogs to a runner-up finish in the ’08 College World Series. Beckham then blistered minor-league pitching to the tune of a .322/.375/.519 line, rising from Low-A ball to the South Side by June of 2009 after a little more than 250 plate appearances in the minors.

Beckham gave every indication that he was ready for prime time. He hit the ground running with the White Sox in ’09, putting up a .351 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) in 430 PA while earning the Sporting News’ AL Rookie of the Year Award. Just 22 years old at the time, Beckham looked like a franchise cornerstone and a needed first-round success story for an organization that had recently been criticized for taking low-upside players like Lance Broadway and Kyle McCulloch.

Since then, however, Beckham has been sliding backwards. His wOBA dipped to .305 in 2010, and he’s the owner of a sordid .262 wOBA so far this season for a Chicago team whose park-and-league adjusted offense is 12 percent below average. In late April, White Sox hitting coach Greg Walker told the Chicago Sun-Times, “[Beckham]’s swinging at a lot of pitches out of the zone. He’s frustrated. He’s getting himself out a lot.”

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Terrible Hitters Who Help Their Teams

If you want a quick glimpse of some players who probably shouldn’t qualify for the batting title, go to the leader boards, click on Advanced, and then click on wOBA. There you will see a list of players whose wOBAs range from pretty damn bad, Will Venable at .285, to downright putrid, Miguel Tejada at .224. Some of these players figure to rise from their unworthy starts and earn their spots in the lineup. Others will find spots on the bench, or, in some cases, the waiver wire. Such is life in baseball.

Despite their horrible overall production, some of these players have managed to get their scant few hits in a timely manner. A few of the bottom dwellers have racked up a decent number of runs and RBI in their travels. While it’s not at all indicative of their talent, it has helped their team in some small way. I’d like to highlight a couple of these instances today.

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What’s Wrong With Adam Dunn?

Adam Dunn is one of the most durable, consistent power hitters in baseball. When Chicago inked the 31-year-old to a four year, $56 million deal last offseason, there was no reason to suspect anything less than the .250/.380/.520 that he puts up seemingly every season. However, through the first month of the season, Dunn is hitting .171/.308/.316. Is The Big Donkey going to rebound, or should the White Sox be concerned about their DH?

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John Danks: Ace?

Last season, the Chicago White Sox pitching staff led all of baseball in WAR. They did this without employing a starter that most baseball fans would consider an ace. Mark Buehrle may be the longest tenured White Sox pitcher, but his lack of strikeouts hardly make him an ace. While Gavin Floyd and Edwin Jackson are extremely effective when “on,” they can’t seem to sustain that success over a full season. That leaves John Danks, who has gotten off to a strong start this season. While he may not be a household name just yet, Danks has slowly developed into the White Sox best starter. If his early season results are any indication, he may actually be getting better.
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The White Sox Can’t Close the Deal

No lead is safe these days when a White Sox reliever enters the game. While Matt Thornton has taken the brunt of fan anger, his struggles now seem to have spread to the rest of the bullpen. The situation got crazier Wednesday when three relievers — including Thornton — blew a three-run lead in the final inning, leading Ozzie Guillen to tell the media that he didn’t have a closer. It’s too early to overreact, and Guillen is smarter than that*, but frustration is beginning to boil over with the Sox. 

Thornton entered the season as the newly-minted closer, but the shine quickly wore off. While the lefty has been his team’s best reliever the past few seasons (not to mention one of the best relievers in all of baseball), he’s struggled in his new role. No one wants to overreact to 4.2 innings pitched, but Thornton might need more time to refine his approach. Walks plagued him when he was with the Seattle Mariners, and those troubles have revisited Thornton so far this season. His velocity appears fine, which could mean that a bullpen session will fix these early struggles.

Chris Sale emerged as a potential candidate for saves this season as well, but he’s also experienced some problems. His issues, though, appear based more on luck rather than skill. Despite a strong strikeout to walk rate (9:1), Sale’s given up 11 hits in only 7.1 innings. So long as Sale doesn’t turn into a home-run machine, he should be fine.

Neither Jesse Crain, nor Sergio Santos, have pitched poorly this season, so perhaps they’re next in line for closing opportunities. Crain was part of the White Sox’s bullpen meltdown yesterday, which could mean that Santos might have a longer leash at the moment. Both players are capable of being successful closers, but the two lack the upside of either Thornton or Sale. It’s also Santos’ second season as a pitcher (in his career), so Guillen may be hesitant to install him in that role in the immediate future. With four options, none of which are all that appealing at the moment, what will Guillen do?

Despite his early troubles, Thornton has gotten consistent support from his manager. Guillen also likely realizes that Thornton is his best pitcher, and that he should be able to rebound rather quickly. For now, the frustration with the pen is at a high point and Guillen is likely to ride the hot hand. Could that include Tony Pena? Maybe, but it’s not likely. Once Thornton returns to form, he should return to the closer role.

If, however, one player emerges and Guillen names him the closer for the remainder of the season, not all is lost for Thornton. If we think a team’s best pitcher should be used during the most important moments of the game, then utilizing Thornton in that role is the optimal way for Ozzie to run his pen. Even though Bobby Jenks was the closer the past few seasons, Thornton was the Sox’s most reliable pitcher, and the guy Guillen brought in with the bases loaded in the eighth inning.

It’s too early for teams to panic and make dramatic changes with such small samples, but that won’t stop the White Sox. Their early bullpen issues have been so overblown this season that Guillen will play the match-up game until someone emerges. Thornton, though, is still the best option in the pen. Once he returns to form, the Sox could re-install him as the full-time closer. But it shouldn’t be viewed as a failure if Thornton doesn’t reclaim the job. He’s long been one of the best “secret closers**” in the game, and the White Sox have plenty of options.

*You can take my word for it, or you can call me an idiot in the comments.

**Copyright Carson Cistulli


Edwin Jackson’s Great Start

In a matchup against his former team – although not against many of his former teammates – Edwin Jackson carved through the Tampa Bay Rays yesterday afternoon. Over eight innings he struck out 13 while allowing just four hits, a single walk and an earned run. His first start against the Cleveland Indians wasn’t as good, but he did get seven strikeouts over six innings. Needless to say, Jackson has had an encouraging first two starts.

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He Didn’t Leave a ‘Lastings’ Impression

In 2003, the New York Mets drafted 18-year old Lastings Milledge with the 12th overall selection. On Thursday, the White Sox designated 26-year old Lastings Milledge for assignment. Having spent time in both the major and minor leagues for four different organizations over the past four seasons, the former highly touted high school product has lost virtually all of his luster.

Though his career is at a crossroads right now, Milledge finds himself in an interesting situation. He isn’t talented enough to legitimately help any team, but he will undoubtedly be given every opportunity to prove that assessment incorrect.

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Team Preview: Chicago White Sox

After a coming in 6 games out of first place last year, the White Sox decided that they needed to add some power to their lineup and signed Adam Dunn to a 4 year, $56 million contract. Besides bringing in Dunn and a few changes in the bullpen, the 2010 and 2011 White Sox won’t be that much different in their personnel.

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