Archive for Trade Value

2023 Trade Value Series Chat

10:00
Ben Clemens: Good morning. Let’s get started.

10:00
171: Wow, Ben waking up to do a chat at 7 am local time. The dedication! Love this guy!

10:00
Ben Clemens: I’m leaving for a brief vacation today so I actually insisted on it

10:00
Jacob: Kinda a trade value q, do you think buxton will ever figure it out again or is he cooked

10:00
Ben Clemens: Man, I happened to catch a lot of his at-bats in this week’s Twins/Mariners series, and he’s clearly compromised right now

10:01
Ben Clemens: I think they need to try to get him healthy, he could play a long time like this and not figure it out

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With Marsh and Robertson, Phillies Patch Holes With an Eye to the Future

Brandon Marsh
Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies were in an unenviable spot coming into today. At 55–47, they’re likely out of the NL East race, which leaves them competing with the Cardinals and Padres for the final two playoff spots in the NL. It’s three teams for two spots, and two of the three teams were attempting to add Juan Soto. That’s not a great place to be if you’re Philadelphia.

The Padres have likely separated themselves from that awkward middle by breaking open their prospect vault to secure Soto and Josh Bell. That leaves the Cardinals and Phillies as the two clearest contenders for the last Wild Card, and that’s where the good news starts. The Cardinals, naturally, aren’t getting Soto. They may not be getting anyone, period; they have contributors across the board offensively, which means there are no obvious spots for an upgrade, and there aren’t many marquee pitchers left on the board.

The Phillies, meanwhile, have no shortage of holes. They were the main offender in Jay Jaffe’s Replacement Level Killers series, the major league organization equivalent of Swiss cheese, and they were already trading for middle infielders the Cardinals would have otherwise had to DFA. That sounds bad, but it has its upsides. It’s a lot easier to improve when you start out from a lower point, and the Phillies are doing so today in two separate trades, adding Brandon Marsh from the Angels and David Robertson from the Cubs.
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To Keep or Trade David Price

It seems like a foregone conclusion that David Price won’t be with the Tampa Bay Rays when spring training begins next year. In previous seasons, Tampa Bay has dealt Edwin Jackson and Matt Garza as the team entered costly years in the arbitration process. The Rays also traded James Shields to address team depth, despite his rather affordable contract, which means there’s plenty of history to suggest a move is in Price’s future.

Some of the statements put out there in recent weeks include concerns about Price’s declining velocity, about diminishing returns on value and whether the team can afford to keep the pitcher for even one more season. There’s no masking the fact Price threw with less velocity in 2013, even after returning from a stint on the disabled list while he recovered from a triceps strain. Price returned from the DL intent on becoming a more efficient pitcher, and he did so with aplomb. In fact, only Cliff Lee threw a higher percentage of strikes in the season’s final three months.

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Kevin Youkilis: Welcome to Mount Olympus


The traveling Greek God of Walks.

Sunday afternoon, the Boston Red Sox sent Kevin Youkilis to Chicago’s south side. Drafted, crafted and debuted as a Red Sox player, Youkilis now joins only the second team of his career.

His numbers this season have taken a precipitous decline with injuries, but as recently as 2011, Youk’ had a 127 wRC+ and 3.7 WAR while playing primarily third base. In short: For a White Sox team hurting for third base production, this trade could turn into a major fleecing for the south siders.

Let’s see how.
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Chicago Cubs Sign LHP Paul Maholm


NOTE: The left-handed Paul McCartney should NOT be
confused with his Maholmish southclaw brethren.

Late Monday night, Paul Maholm broke the news via his own Twitter account that he has signed with the Chicago Cubs. This morning, Bruce Levine reported that the deal will pay him $4.25 million for 2012 with a $500,000 buyout of a $6.5 million option for 2013, so the deal will either be 1/4.75 or 2/10.75. This puts his guaranteed money at just slightly less than what the Indians took on to acquire Derek Lowe. If he pitches well and the Cubs pick up the option, he’ll essentially have gotten the same deal as Chris Capuano. The market for this kind of pitcher has been pretty clearly defined.

What can we expect from Maholm? And is he a good fit for the Cubs rotation?

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Oakland’s Gio Haul: A Cynic’s View

What a difference two weeks can make.

I posted Oakland’s 2011-12 Top 15 prospects list on Dec. 6 and have been forced to revise the ranking twice in the last 16 days. The first move sent young starter Trevor Cahill to the Arizona Diamondbacks, while the second – and most recent – deal flipped Gio Gonzalez (and an inconsequential minor league arm) to the Washington Nationals for four prospects.

There have been a lot of kudos over social media outlets for Oakland General Manager Billy Beane but, honestly, I don’t get the love. My personal reaction upon reading the news was: “Really, that’s it?”

I know Gonzalez is not the end-all-and-be-all of starting pitchers but I can see him becoming a reliable No. 2 starter in the Washington Nationals starting rotation for quite a few seasons. There has been a lot made about the positive impact of his home park, as well as Oakland’s defense behind him, but let’s consider his road FIP (4.40) is not terrible by any means and he’ll be facing weaker lineups in the National League.

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Hiroyuki Nakajima: Sign-and-Trade Possibilities

On Tuesday, we took a look at the New York Yankees surprise acquisition of SS Hiroyuki Nakajima via a $2.5M positing bid — the lowest bid for a position player since 2000. Now, it sounds increasingly likely that the Yankees will explore trades for the 29-year-old infielder.

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Chicago Cubs and the San Francisco Giants are both interested in Nakajima, and — frankly — I am surprised there are not even more teams rather interested in one of Japan’s best hitting shortstops.

Rosenthal got some quotes from a rival scout that are somewhat illuminating on the defensive makeup of Nakajima:

“This kid wants to play baseball,” the scout said. “He’s not going to take Jeter’s place, but he’s capable of being an everyday shortstop in the big leagues.”

The scout projects Nakajima as a .270-.280 hitter who will drive in runs and use his instincts to steal bases, despite being a below-average runner. He lacks arm strength at short, but has great hands, very good range to his left and hangs in on the double play, the scout said.

So does Nakajima fit with the Cubs or Giants?
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Oakland Deals Cahill, Comes Up Snake Eyes

The Oakland Athletics traded a pitcher on Friday but it wasn’t the oft-mentioned Gio Gonzalez who is headed to the Arizona desert.

The A’s traded three-year starter Trevor Cahill, along with left-handed reliever Craig Breslow, to the Diamondbacks for a collect of three prospects: starter Jarrod Parker, reliever Ryan Cook and outfielder Collin Cowgill. It’s a fairly uninspiring return for a young pitcher who compiled more than 200 innings in 2011 and won’t turn 24 until spring training.

The top prize coming to Oakland is former 2007 first-round draft pick Jarrod Parker. I recently ranked him the second-best prospect in the Diamondbacks’ system behind 2011 first – Trevor Bauer. I had this to say about him:

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Trading Joey Votto

Heard this: over the weekend, Buster Olney tweeted: “Rival executives getting signals that the Reds won’t shop Joey Votto — but that they are fully prepared to listen to offers.” While the tweet does not come close to saying that Votto was up for grabs (“they’re willing to listen, I’ve never heard that before!”), it generated a substantial amount of buzz across the internet. Votto is one of the best hitters in baseball and he is in his prime (he just turned 28). Earlier this season, Dave Cameron ranked Votto seventh in his most recent installment of his annual trade value rankings. What sort of return can the Reds expect if they trade Votto during the coming off-season?

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How Much Will Reyes’ Injuries Cost Him?

Jose Reyes will become a free agent this offseason. The Mets’ shortstop looks to make quite a bit of cash, but his recent injuries might limit what teams are willing to pay.

From 2005 to 2008, Reyes averaged 157 games a year. During that time, he averaged 5.2 WAR per season and accumulated the thirteenth-highest combined WAR among all players. His wOBA was .347.

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