Chris Sale Begins His Latest Comeback

Monday offered a rare sighting, as Chris Sale took the mound in a game for the first time since last July 17 — even if it was only a Grapefruit League game against the Tigers. Limited to just 11 starts over the past three seasons due to injuries, the soon-to-be-34-year-old lefty took his first step towards both reestablishing his spot among the game’s top pitchers and helping to support a promising but rickety rotation that may be the Red Sox’s best hope for respectability this year.

Once upon a time, Sale ranked among the game’s most durable pitchers. From 2012-17, only Max Scherzer, R.A. Dickey and Jeff Samardzija threw more innings than his 1,230. Sale was limited to 27 starts in 2018 due to left shoulder inflammation, though he wobbled through the postseason while helping the Red Sox win the World Series. It’s been downhill ever since, as he pitched to a 4.40 ERA and missed the last seven weeks of the 2019 season due to left shoulder inflammation, then tore his ulnar collateral ligament the following spring and had Tommy John surgery. The Red Sox took a slow, deliberate approach to his rehab. He didn’t return to the majors until August 14, 2021, nearly 17 months after his surgery and two years and a day since his last regular season outing.

Sale made nine starts with mostly good results in 2021, posting a 3.16 ERA and 3.69 FIP while striking out 28.4% of hitters, but hopes that that performance would carry over into 2022 didn’t last long. About a week after the lockout ended, the Red Sox revealed that Sale had suffered a stress fracture in his right rib cage while throwing batting practice at Florida Gulf Coast University in mid-February; he wasn’t allowed to tell the team until the lockout ended. He finally made his first of four rehab starts on June 20, and returned to the Sox after a frustrating five-walk outing that was capped by him destroying a television and other equipment in what he later called “a 7-year-old temper tantrum.” On July 12 he finally took the mound for Boston, throwing five shutout innings against the Rays, but five days later, he didn’t make it out of the first inning against the Yankees, as a 106.7-mph Aaron Hicks line drive hit his left hand, fracturing his pinky. Around three weeks later, while the pinky was still healing, he broke his right wrist in a bicycle accident and needed season-ending surgery. Woof.

The Sale who took the mound at JetBlue Park on Monday showed little evidence of those misfortunes. Indeed, the 6-foot-6 lefty appeared loose and relaxed while throwing 31 pitches (24 for strikes) over two scoreless innings against the Tigers, reaching 96 mph with his fastball. That said, he wasn’t exactly facing Murderer’s Row, and he did have a few minor hiccups.

The game had no Statcast coverage, alas, so any velocity reports came from the broadcast or subsequent reporting, but even while working out of the stretch with nobody on base, Sale did dial his four-seamer up to 96 against leadoff hitter Matt Vierling in the first inning. He also committed a pitch clock violation while ahead 1-2, and ended up surrendering a single to left center.

Sale didn’t have another problem with the clock, and after the outing, he would tell NESN, “I’m a huge fan of it and I love it. It gets people into it and there’s little lag time… It’s going to take some adjustments, but once we get a couple under our belt we’ll be fine.”

While we’re on the subject, Sale generally has a reputation as a fast worker. Via Statcast’s Pitch Tempo metric, which measures the median time between pitches that follow a take (called strike or ball), he averaged 16.8 seconds with the bases empty in 2021-22, 1.4 seconds faster than the major league average for the span; that translates to a timer equivalent of 10.8 seconds, suggesting he’s in good shape with respect to the clock. His 24.3 seconds (a timer equivalent of 18.3 seconds) with men on base, however, was 0.5 seconds slower than average in that span, though to be fair, both of his splits rose by a couple of seconds during his wilderness years. Dialing back to 2017, he averaged 14.0 seconds with the bases empty and 21.9 with men on; the league averages have gone up since then, but his increased time between pitches may have reflected his ongoing health woes.

Back to his Monday outing, facing the game’s second batter, Riley Greene, Sale was slow in coming off the mound after Greene hit an 0-2 grounder to first baseman Justin Turner, who threw to shortstop Enrique Hernández for the force out. Hernández cocked his arm to fire to first base to complete the double play but held the ball when he saw Sale wasn’t close enough to the bag. Sale recovered by getting Javier Báez on a fly ball to the warning track in center field, then blew a 96-mph fastball by Eric Haase for strike three.

Chris Sale pumps 96(!!!) for his first strikeout of the spring!! ???

HE’S BACK!!!
pic.twitter.com/Uz4c0WKrxj

— Boston Sports Gordo (@BOSSportsGordo) March 6, 2023

Before taking the mound for the second inning, Sale had to wait out a 21-minute bottom of the first, during which the Red Sox scored four runs but lost Turner. The 38-year-old infielder was hit in the face by a Matt Manning fastball, fell to the ground bleeding, and was taken to a hospital, where he was treated for soft tissue injuries and received 16 stitches. Thankfully, he did not suffer any fractures. He was monitored for a concussion and will undergo testing but was able to go home to rest; his timetable for returning isn’t clear yet.

Upon taking the mound, Sale started the second by striking out Tyler Nevin on a beautiful backdoor slider.

Chris Sale, Pretty Back Door Slider. ? pic.twitter.com/dXr8fK4sRu

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 6, 2023

After that, he went to a full count on Kerry Carpenter, who popped up; surrendered a first-pitch single to left field by Zack Short; and got Nick Maton to hit a comebacker, which he fielded cleanly, ending his afternoon.

Again, without Statcast I can’t give you a breakdown of his pitches, but he did show good command, his slider had bite, and he worked in his changeup, a pitch he’s struggled with in recent years. From 2019-22, batters hit .328 and slugged .557 against the pitch while whiffing on 29% percent of swings, down from a peak of 38.5%.

Afterwards, Sale was beaming, not only pleased with his fastball command but vocally appreciative of everyone who helped him in his quest to get back to the mound. Following a winter in which he sought therapy to work through the mental difficulties he’d encountered over the past few seasons — including the pressures of living up to the five-year, $145 million extension he signed in March 2019 — he said, “I’m trying to have more fun with it. I’m trying to be more open-minded. I’m trying to kind of soak some things in and really appreciate it.”

Anything would be more fun than the ups and downs of that 2019-22 span, though given last year’s 78-84 record and an underwhelming offseason, this Red Sox team doesn’t resemble a joyride in the making. Per our Playoff Odds, they’re projected for a .497 winning percentage (call it 81 wins if you’re generous) with just a 4.7% chance of winning the AL East and a 29% chance of making the playoffs; 10 AL teams have better odds. The sting of losing Xander Bogaerts to the Padres may have been partially offset by the signing of Rafael Devers to a 10-year, $313.5 million extension, but that doesn’t mean newcomers Turner, Masataka Yoshida and Adam Duvall can produce enough to offset the loss of Bogaerts and fill the team’s other holes.

Particularly if Sale is healthy, the rotation does have a bit more promise. The unit ranked ninth in the AL in WAR last year (8.6), 10th in FIP (4.19) and 11th in ERA (4.49), but with Rich Hill, Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Wacha all departing in free agency, the starting five has a new look. With the return of Sale and the addition of free agent Corey Kluber, the unit — which also includes Nick Pivetta, James Paxton, and Garrett Whitlock each penciled in for at least 100 innings — projects for the league’s sixth-highest WAR (12.3) and fourth-lowest FIP (3.89). But good gravy, this group is all too familiar with the 60-day injured list:

The 34-year-old Paxton has been even more scarce than Sale lately, as he enters the season having made just six starts totaling 20.2 innings over the past three years due to a flexor strain, a forearm strain, Tommy John surgery, and a lat strain. What’s more, he left last Friday’s start with what was later diagnosed as a Grade 1 hamstring strain and has been shut down. He won’t be ready to make the Opening Day roster, though barring a setback he could be available by mid-April.

Kluber, who turns 37 on April 10, is pitching for his fifth team in as many years but is at least coming off his strongest season since 2018. From 2019-21, he made just 24 starts totaling 116.2 innings due to a fractured ulna, a tear of the teres muscle in his right shoulder, and a right shoulder strain, but last year with the Rays, he made 31 starts totaling 164 innings, posting a 4.34 ERA, 3.57 FIP, and 3.0 WAR.

The 26-year-old Whitlock, who moved to the rotation in late April of last year after spending his rookie season in the bullpen, was limited to nine starts and 78 innings due to right hip problems that culminated in season-ending surgery to repair an impingement in the joint. He’s still recovering; though he’s been throwing off a mound, and on Monday was able to participate in fielding drills for the first time, he isn’t likely to be ready for Opening Day.

With the 23-year-old Bello dealing with a bout of forearm soreness and unlikely to be ready as well, that could mean both Houck and Crawford begin the year as starters. Both ended last year on the IL. Houck made four starts and 28 relief appearances but missed the last seven weeks of the season due to lower back woes that culminated in a lumbar discectomy. He’s being stretched out to start this spring but is more likely to serve in a multi-inning relief role. Crawford didn’t pitch in September due to a shoulder impingement but has already racked up five innings in two appearances this spring.

As the projections suggest, that’s a pretty decent rotation if everybody shows up even at those modest inning totals, but there’s also a lot that can go wrong, and not a lot of additional depth in the minors if it does. Mata and Walter combined for seven starts at Triple-A Worcester last year after spending most of the season at lower levels. Each has some promise but also command issues, and will need to pitch his way into the picture.

Peering too far down the depth chart can be a buzzkill. The good news for the Red Sox is that for the first time in awhile, their ace is healthy in March, offering hope that maybe — just maybe — he can recapture the form that made him a perennial All-Star and Cy Young contender.