Cole Hamels’ Cranky Shoulder Will Test Braves’ Pitching Depth

Back in December, the Braves signed Cole Hamels to a one-year, $18 million deal, a move that effectively replaced one grizzled, championship-tested southpaw with another, namely departing free agent Dallas Keuchel. As with the former Astro, who didn’t sign with the team until last June, the Braves apparently aren’t going to get a full complement of starts from the former Phillie, as Hamels is well behind schedule due to an offseason shoulder injury, a move that opens the door for the Braves to test their vaunted pitching depth.

Recall that after a stellar first three months of last season (2.98 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 99.2 IP), Hamels left his June 28 start with an oblique strain, and after missing five weeks, he struggled upon returning. Lasting five innings or more in just four of 10 starts, he was touched for a 5.79 ERA and 5.29 FIP while losing a bit of velocity (0.9 mph per PitchInfo) and swing-and-miss, and made just one start after September 16 due to shoulder fatigue. Still, thanks to a much-improved changeup, his full-season 4.09 FIP and 2.5 WAR were his best marks since 2015, and he reportedly generated interest from at least 13 teams before signing with the Braves.

The shoulder is apparently still a problem. As camp opened on February 12, the Braves revealed that the 36-year-old lefty “irritated” (manager Brian Snitker’s word) his shoulder doing weighted ball exercises over the course of the winter, was going to be behind schedule, and would be reevaluated in three weeks. Ten days later, after undergoing treatment from Dr. Keith Meister of TIM Sports Medicine and Orthopedics in Dallas, Hamels described what sounds like garden-variety shoulder inflammation:

“I know I’m behind the 8-ball,” he said. “But once I knock (the inflammation) out right away, I know I’ll be able to be the best pitcher I can and put up good numbers.

…“It hit a point where I couldn’t get past (the pain),” Hamels said. “Soreness is good but you have to know what’s good and what’s bad. I wasn’t feeling as good as I thought I should and I couldn’t overcome it without asking the right questions.”

Hamels’ three-week checkpoint arrived; on Monday, Snitker said that the pitcher is progressing well, but has yet to be cleared to resume throwing, meaning that there’s no timeline for his return. Given the time it takes a starting pitcher to ramp up his workload, the chances of Hamels appearing with the team in April are dwindling, if not out the window entirely.

That leaves the Braves needing to fill two rotation spots behind righties Mike Soroka and Mike Foltynewicz and lefty Max Fried. They don’t lack for options that look good on paper, with three former first-round draft picks (Sean Newcomb, Touki Toussaint, and Kyle Wright) and a former Cy Young winner (Félix Hernández) among their top alternatives. Of course, the fact that none of those four is already entrenched in a rotation spot is a sign that not all has gone according to plan for those pitchers.

The biggest name, of course, is that of Hernández, who hit free agency after the expiration of his seven-year, $175 million contract with the Mariners — with whom he’d spent 15 seasons — but settled for a minor league deal that pays him just $1 million if he’s in the majors. Hernández, who turns 34 on April 8, was lit for a 6.40 ERA and 6.00 FIP in 71.2 mostly dismal innings last year, serving up 2.1 homers per nine while striking out a career-low 17.5%. That was just the splatter following a multi-year fall from greatness that included five straight years of increasing ERAs and FIPs, and an average of just 21 starts per year over the past four seasons due to injuries; a lat strain cost him nearly 3 1/2 months in 2019.

Per The Athletic‘s David O’Brien, Hernández has reportedly lost at least 20 pounds and says he’s 100 percent healthy, the best he’s felt since 2016 or ’17: “My command, body-wise, my legs feel really good, my shoulder — it’s a combination of everything.” He’s been “a pleasant surprise” to the Atlanta brass through his first two spring outings according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Braves beat writer, Gabe Burns. In his most recent turn, against the Cardinals on February 27, his fastball sat 89-91 mph as he struck out four in 2.2 innings while allowing one run. Here’s a shot from his February 22nd start against the Orioles:

Felix Hernandez: different look, same filth ? pic.twitter.com/KmNOoQ7Rsl

— Baseball Quotes (@BaseballQuotes1) February 22, 2020

If he stays healthy, Hernández probably has the inside track on one rotation spot. His projections (5.31 ERA and 5.38 FIP via ZiPS, 4.85 ERA and 4.74 FIP via Steamer) suggest a pitcher who may not pitch well enough to maintain his hold on a job, but with better health, conditioning, and the motivation brought about by a change of scenery, perhaps he’s got enough to reverse his recent downward trend. For early March, it’s enough to dream on, but hardly a guaranteed solution, and it may well be a last gasp. Brace yourselves.

Newcomb, a 26-year-old lefty who was originally a 2014 first round pick by the Angels, spent nearly all of 2018 in the Braves’ rotation, pitching to a 3.90 ERA and 4.14 FIP. Nonetheless, he struggled with his command and control, walking a major league-high 11.6% of batters while striking out 23.0%, and spent nearly all of last year in the bullpen, making 51 relief appearances but just four starts totaling 68.1 innings. In doing so, he remixed his arsenal (fewer changeups, more breaking balls) trimmed his walk rate to 9.9%, and posted a 3.16 ERA, though his FIP actually rose to 4.24. Whether he can get ahead in the count more frequently — his 54.7% first-pitch strike rate ranks 127th out of 128 pitchers with at least 200 innings over the past two seasons — and generate enough strikes with his secondary stuff will determine if he can return to the rotation or remain in the bullpen.

Wright, the fifth pick of the 2017 draft, is a 24-year-old righty whose stock has fallen somewhat; he placed 95th on our most recent Top 100 Prospects list, down from 39th last year and 26th the year before. He’s had two bitter cups of coffee in that span, serving up six homers in 25.2 innings while walking 15.7%. As Eric Longenhagen summarized, “Wright’s fastball movement causes the pitch to play below its velocity [sits 94-97, tops 99], and it’s unclear if that’s fixable.” He does have a deep repertoire, with a curve, slider, and changeup that have the potential to be average to plus, but his command is currently below average. He’s athletic and sturdily built (6-foot-4, 200 pounds), and the belief among prospect hounds is that he can still be anything from a league-average innings muncher to a mid-rotation or better fixture, giving him the most upside from among this bunch. While he’s started the spring by retiring 15 of the 17 hitters he’s faced across two outings, he may still need fine tuning at Triple-A Gwinnett before he’s the best option for a rotation spot.

Toussaint, a 2014 first round pick by the Diamondbacks, is the long shot in the race. After ranking 57th on last year’s Top 100 Prospects list, he scuffled in a bullpen role with the Braves, getting lit for a 5.62 ERA and 4.99 FIP in 41.2 innings before being returned to Triple-A just after the All-Star break. As with Newcomb and Wright, walks (13.1%) have been a big problem. Still just 23 years old and armed with a killer curveball to go with a 91-94/97 fastball and a splitter that generated a 24.4% whiff rate even amid his troubles, he spent the winter working on cleaning up his delivery, and Snitker has been impressed with the results.

Joining Wright on this year’s Top 100 list are a pair of righties entering their age-22 seasons, namely 2016 third overall pick Ian Anderson (44th on our recent list) and 2016 fourth round pick Bryse Wilson (100th on the list). Both are further off than the above group, however, and likely to start the year at Gwinnett. Anderson, a 55 FV prospect, was torched for a 6.57 ERA and 6.42 FIP in five Triple-A starts late last year, while Wilson, a 50 FV prospect who endured his own rough intro to Triple-A in 2018, has amassed a total of 27 big league innings over the past two seasons, during which — you guessed it — walks (12.7%) have been a problem.

As for Hamels, given that he’s landed in the 140-150 inning range in two out of the past three seasons, an absence such as the one he’s facing is hardly unexpected. Given the cues that the aging southpaw is merely dealing with inflammation, and that the team has plenty of depth and high-upside options, this doesn’t appear to be a crisis in the making. Nonetheless, in a tight NL East race against the teams with the majors’ top two rotations — the Nationals are first in our Depth Charts rankings at 19.4 WAR, the Mets second at 18.6 — the Braves, who rank 13th at 13.7 WAR, will need to catch some breaks. Any hopes of repeating last year’s division title may rest on a Hérnandez rebound, or a breakthrough by at least one of the youngsters. Stay tuned.