The Cardinals’ Messy Outfield Situation
Last year’s Cardinals were successful. Thanks to a solid rotation, a good bullpen, and excellent defense and baserunning, St. Louis won the division and advanced to the NLCS. The Cardinals’ main weakness was at the plate, where they were mostly average. Excluding pitchers, the team’s wRC+ for the season was 100, and ranked 14th in the game. The team’s outfield was no exception; the group put up an identical 100 wRC+, which ranked 17th among major league outfields, with their 7.0 WAR occupying that same ranking. Despite allowing Marcell Ozuna to leave in free agency and trading Randy Arozarena and José Martínez to the Rays, the team still has a glut of outfielders competing for roles this spring. They have quantity and they might have quality as well, but sorting out playing time could be a mess.
The Cardinals have three players who accumulated at least 100 plate appearances in the outfield last season. Here’s how those players performed:
| Player | PA | wRC+ | BsR | Off | Def | WAR | WAR/600 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dexter Fowler | 574 | 103 | -0.3 | 1.6 | -8.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Harrison Bader | 406 | 81 | 0.7 | -9.3 | 14.5 | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| Tyler O’Neill | 151 | 91 | 0.1 | -1.7 | -2.9 | 0 | 0 |
That trio probably doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. Fowler had a bounce-back season, but with an average batting line and most of his time spent in a corner outfield spot, he was slightly below average overall and turns 34 years old before Opening Day. Bader saw his walk rate improve, but hitting in the eighth spot the majority of the time probably helps account for some of that uptick, and might have made Bader too passive. His overall numbers against righties last season were in line with his breakout 2018 at about 10% below league average, but his numbers against lefties plummeted, unusual given he has hit well against them his entire career, including in the minors. Despite Bader’s weak year at the plate, his fantastic defense makes him an above-average player. As for O’Neill, he struggled mightily as a pinch hitter last season; he put up a slightly above-average line as an outfielder and a 116 wRC+ in July in more regular starting duty before he injured his wrist. Given his somewhat inconsistent minor league history — sometimes crushing, sometimes hitting closer to average — it’s fair to say we still don’t know much about O’Neill’s abilities as a hitter against major league pitcher or how he might fare given extended playing time.
So the incumbents, if you want to call them that, consist of an aging, should-be fourth outfielder, a glove-first center fielder, and a 24-year-old with a lot of power and strikeouts who may or may not be capable of starting at an average to above-average level. The outfield situation is emblematic of an offseason that seems to have passed St. Louis by. The Cardinals do have other outfield options in camp, including one of the better prospects in baseball, Dylan Carlson. Here are the 2020 projection for Carlson and a few other options who are in the mix:
| Player | PA | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Bat | BsR | Fld | WAR | WAR/600 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Bader | 415 | .320 | .410 | .310 | -4.2 | 1 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Dylan Carlson | 273 | .321 | .425 | .315 | -1.6 | -0.1 | -0.7 | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Tommy Edman | 308 | .319 | .414 | .311 | -2.8 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 1.4 |
| Tyler O’Neill | 457 | .300 | .459 | .316 | -2.2 | 0.9 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Dexter Fowler | 546 | .336 | .399 | .317 | -2.1 | 0.2 | -3.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Lane Thomas | 195 | .302 | .402 | .300 | -3.7 | -0.2 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Austin Dean | 7 | .318 | .438 | .319 | 0 | 0 | -0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Williams | 7 | .301 | .396 | .296 | -0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Projections aren’t perfect, but they don’t paint a sunny picture for the Cardinals’ outfield. One of the better projected players is Tommy Edman, and he is a better fit on the infield; he’s likely to be more of a super-utility player this season, which would take him out of a starting role. While Lane Thomas, Austin Dean, and Justin Williams are in the mix for roster spots, Thomas has put up mostly average numbers in Triple-A, Dean is a 26-year-old with defensive issues, and Williams hasn’t been able to put the ball in the air consistently. That leaves four starters for three spots.
Bader plays center field so well, it’s tough to see him not getting the starting spot out there. While O’Neill, Fowler, and Carlson have all shown some ability to play center, those days are mostly behind Fowler, O’Neill has been a corner outfielder for most of his career between the majors and minors, and Carlson might not be a center fielder long-term, as Eric Longenhagen noted in his prospect write-up when he placed Carlson 39th on this year’s Top 100:
Carlson is an average runner and a large dude for a 20-year-old. His instincts in center field are okay, but not good enough to overcome long speed that typically falls short at the position. Because of where we have his arm strength graded, we think he fits in left field or at first base.
So if we put Bader in center at least most of the time, there are two starting spot for Carlson, Fowler, and O’Neill. The projections say Carlson is the better outfielder of the three, and his prospect status indicates his ceiling is probably higher as well. There are going to be some service time considerations; Carlson could be held down in the minors for a few weeks to gain an extra year of service time, though that’s not a tactic that has been used by the Cardinals in the past. Carlson is not yet on the 40-man roster, but that’s an obstacle easily overcome.
A neutral evaluation of the three players would give Carlson one of the remaining corner spots, creating a toss-up between O’Neill and Fowler. While spring stats aren’t indicative of talent level (given the small sample size of plate appearances and the potential disparity in opponents’ skill levels), it should be noted that none of the play so far this spring has served to change the order of the projections, with O’Neill and Carlson producing and Fowler not. It’s reasonable for the Cardinals to want to actually see what they might have in O’Neill; while perhaps less reasonable to play Fowler due to his contract status, it is something that teams do all the time. It’s possible those two factors might be enough to keep Carlson in the minors.
Carlson isn’t a sure thing, but his projections make him out to be a clear rung ahead of the other potential outfielders. The “path of least resistance” so often used by the Cardinals would put the veteran in one corner outfield spot and the young, but uncertain talent already on the 40-man ahead of a top prospect with a high floor. But the Cardinals as a team already have a pretty high floor. It’s the ceiling that is in issue. If the club is going to beat their 82-win projection this season, the outfield provides the biggest opportunity. The outfielder with the lowest ceiling also makes the most money. Dexter Fowler would make a solid fourth outfielder for the Cardinals as the team looks to see just how good a young outfield of Bader, O’Neill, and Carlson could be, but that’s a tough conversation to have with a veteran whose been starting for more than a decade. It’s a bit messy, but in order for the Cardinals to see what they have, they have to play the most promising players who project to have the best performance.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
I pray every night that something clicks for Tyler O’Neill. Something about a Canadian kid with a 585 pound squat-lift being one of the fastest people in baseball is so mesmerizing to me. Sadly, the letter K exists, and O’Neill suffers at his hands.
I was really surprised to see his sprint speed be so high when I did a search. He doesn’t play that fast. Shoot his “Spd” or Speed score was only 3.1 last year. Good for 11th on the Cardinals last year for players with at least 100 ABs. I get speed score was one of the older sabermetrics and has become outdated, but that is a poor score.
Zack Wheat was insanely fast, but his steals don’t reflect that. Albert Pujols is notably slow, but his career high in steals (16) is only 5 under that of Wheat’s (21). He might not PLAY with speed, but it doesn’t mean he doesn’t have it, just like Ichiro with power.
I’m convinced Ichiro could have been a Mookie Betts type if he hadn’t been so focused on batting average.
To be fair, Pujols was only a little below average in foot speed during the first half of his career.
However, stolen bases are a highly flawed determination of speed anyway, since a good baserunner like Yadier Molina can swipe several bags a year by picking the right spots despite being one of the slowest runners in the league.
I feel like there are a few guys who rip through the minors, seem to have solved their K issues, and then they start striking out so badly in MLB that even when they go back down they can’t seem to stop. I don’t understand what happens, but the same thing happened to AJ Reed, and probably other guys too that I’m forgetting. It’s like they catch the strikeout bug in the majors and then even when they go back down it’s worse than when they were coming up.
It’s probably just random variation, that it happens to 1 in 100 prospects and I’m just noticing these ones. But it’s still weird when it happens.
It’s not that weird. For some odd reason the NL spent an entire half season throwing fastballs at Matt Kemp a couple of years ago. The result was a surprise allstar appearance. Then they all remembered he couldn’t hit anything with a jump in it. The result: an NRI pipe dream this season.
And this was for an established player whose weaknesses were well known ahead of time
I remember when Eno did that article a year or two ago talking about the small list of players that were in the top 10% of sprint speed, arm speed, and exit velocity. Tyler made that list, and I always think about that. The dude has tools, that is for sure
So does Randal Grichuk, but he can never make enough contact to be more than a mediocre starter or good 4th outfielder.
He really is about as interesting as baseballists get. Seems like a good dude, too.
Sigh, we used to pray for the same thing with Randal Grichuk, as well. Hopefully, things work out better for O’Neill.
This Patented Craig Edwards Cardinals Puff Piece is completely flat and I would like a refund
Your mom is completely flat and I would like a refund.
It’s unfortunate that many (if not, most) of the readers don’t recall or care about the “Craig Edwards Cardinals Puff Piece” meme that was created here a few years ago.
Also (and mostly) unfortunate that you tried to work your own magic into it, and failed. Miserably.
If the Cardinals are serious about winning, Fowler will be reduced to a fourth OF. He makes a lot of money and has a full no-trade clause so he’s not going anywhere. They need to treat him as a sunk cost and not start him because he is so expensive. He should never see a LH pitcher either.
Odd comment considering they have had 11 WS titles with the last two coming in 2006 and 2011
Come on. Yay, two WS titles in the last 14 season. That’s great, but that doesn’t mean they won’t make or haven’t made poor decisions with sunk cost contracts during that same span. Hey look, the current management structure wasn’t around for those WS wins either.
I’d make a healthy wager they start Fowler to begin the season for the two fold reasons of service time shenanigans (although they get bonus points for not really doing that egregiously in the past) and the whole can’t bench the contract reason that is so prevalent.
You do know you’re talking about a guy who actually had a decent season last year and is the most established outfielder the Cardinals have right now, right? He easily deserves to start over the likes of O’Neill, Thomas, etc. until they actually prove they can outperform him.
In nearly 600 AB, Fowler could only reach 1.5 WAR. That’s right on the cusp of decent. Another year older probably saps some more of his production, turning him into a detriment. ZiPS and Steamer think he’s gonna be quite bad, barely reaching 1 WAR. O’Neill essentially has the same projection, and he’s got age on his side (and his defensive projections seem awfully harsh). I’d much rather give O’Neill the job in RF on Opening Day and give him a couple of months to run with it. If he fails, then some conglomeration of Fowler/Carlson/Thomas/Dean/Edman will be able to fill in.
I like Thomas. Similar swing plane to Laureano
So you treat the projections as gospel when they agree with you, but “awfully harsh” when they don’t. Gotcha.
I’m not sure how this really is so messy. Bader, O’Neill, and Fowler will start the season. Thomas will be the 4th OF with Edman as the super-utility. Carlson, Dean, and Williams will be in AAA to start.
Obviously there are questions about whether the younger players will take the next step forward or whether the older one will show further decline this year. Which is as ‘troubling’ as the question of whether someone gets injured. Yes- I’m sure things will happen. That’s why we play baseball to resolve that rather than run simulations with projection systems and robo-umps.
I agree this OF situation secures a floor more than a ceiling. For now.
Play Ball.
Yeah, the “outfield situation” is overblown
Messy only because they have lots of flawed options. If Bader was league average offensively they’d be fine. But so far he’s been unable to produce much on that end. One of most fun to watch on defense though.
He was above league average offensively in 2018 (107 wRC+) and his BABIP last year was .268, about 60 points below his career and minor league numbers. Part of that was poor contact but not all of it. Bader will be fine.
Its strikeouts. Bader has great discipline and speed, as well as borderline 20+ power, but he has too many contact issues. If he fixes his swing, I’d imagine he could bottom out at .260/.340/15 and top out somewhere around .280/.365/25 with about 20 steals.
Hopefully, Fowler will just be given 2 months to suck out loud. Assuming the uber-high variance Tyler O’Neill shows anything at all (yes, I got the feels watching him pulverize a 115 mph exit velocity HR in his first spring at bat), then Dylan Carlson gets the other corner no later than 1 June.
An OF consisting of TON/Bader/Carlson would at least be very interesting to watch. As a fan, that’s cool with me.
I think TON can be a scratch defender in a corner, Carlson maybe “plus.” Surrounding the “plus-plus” Bader in CF, we could have run prevention in the OF like we do in the IF. That’s the kind of baseball I most enjoy watching, especially in support of good, young SP.
That’s unlikely, seeing as Fowler didn’t suck at all last year. 2018 will probably wind up as a strange career low (except maybe his last year or two) blip on his playing career once it’s all over.
Now, O’Neill, he absolutely sucked last year!
Anyway, it’s always nice to have good defense, but it’s overall a secondary concern to the offense. Except for catchers, a guy who’s a good hitter but a mediocre fielder is more valuable than a guy who’s a good fielder but a mediocre hitter. Besides, “chicks dig the long ball.”
“a guy who’s a good hitter but a mediocre fielder is more valuable than a guy who’s a good fielder but a mediocre hitter.”
Very, very short-sighted comment.
Yes, the best hitters provide more value than the best defenders. But the blanket statement that offense is always better is incredibly unfair. No one, especially the Cardinals, has 8 or 9 great hitters. Great defense is more than just a secondary concern especially up the middle. Why do you think the Cardinals had better run prevention than the Nationals, Mets, Reds, and all other NL teams except the Dodgers last year? They did not have Strasburg, Corbin, Syndergaard, or Wheeler in the middle of their rotation. The answer has at least as much to do with Bader, DeJong, and Wong as Hudson, Mikolas, and Wainwright.
Atleast they didnt sign Jason Heyward LOLCubs
The cards rarely err on that side. The let Puljos walk and they must be very happy that they did.
I guess Carpenter counts as one of the few errors like that they make. But he could rebound, even.
They had high bids on Pujols and Heyward. The Cardinals’ Way is to retain their stars. The Angels (not having learned anything from Vernon Wells) foolishly bid even higher on Pujols and Heyward inexplicably flopped when he took slightly less to go to the Cubs. (Heyward looked like the surest bet of Upton, Cespedes, and Gordon that year.) The Cardinals are ordinary in their Free Agent acquisitions and contract extensions. Their magic is in turning FV45’s into 3-win players like Edman, Pham, DeJong, et al.
I dunno, Mark McGwire and Matt Holliday were pretty big deals? Though I guess they were trades and signed “free agent” deals to stay with the Cards
McGwire signed an extension before he hit free agency.
That Puljos guy was a real drain. Pujols, on the other hand, was great.
The Cardinals were successful because the Cubs fell off, not because they were anything special as a team. I think people are giving them extra points because they’re the Cardinals… but they needed to improve the roster and did nothing.
They did a lot. Got rid of a so-so left fielder and got a draft choice, everyone of his many replacements has the same projection. Traded another two surplus outfielders for a high upside left handed pitcher. Signed the best pitcher out of Asia. It was a solid offseason.
none of that adds up to improving the roster, though. the fact is they’re worse on paper today than they were in september.
Ozuna and Martinez were drags on the roster for the money. We’re improved because our young talent can now play. Kim will be one of our five starters – he cost nothing
Except that young talent sucks and/or is largely unproven compared to Ozuna. Ozuna was underpaid compared to his performance last year, and the Braves got him for similar to his market value in AAV.
I’ll give you that the starting rotation is significantly improved if Martinez sticks back there, though, and even Kim should be a much better option than Wacha and Ponce de Leon were last year. Hopefully, Kim (who doesn’t cost much but still costs significantly more than those making the ML minimum) won’t even be needed in the rotation once Mikolas returns.
If you are accepting that comment, how did they get worse? They have several bounceback candidates and the only obvious regression candidate only played half the season.
Sure, compared to the few weeks in August and September when Wong was healthy and Edman was hitting like a stud… they’re probably worse. But that lineup that they had for a very short period of time is not indicative of the 2019 team that won 91 games as a whole. If they had THAT lineup performing at that level all year, which is unrealistic, they would’ve won a whole lot more than 91 games. They’re allowed to be worse than that lineup.
You must be joking! Ozuna is easily better than any outfielder they have right now unless someone improves dramatically or Carlson goes on a huge tear.
The Cubs havent been relevant for a century. The Cardinals had a rough couple of years, but they’re back and have many championships ahead of them.
Why do you do this, my friend? You’d be better off trolling the STLToday boards or something. You won’t get the responses you hope for here.
Somehow I have faith that they’ll work it out. The Cardinals seem to very competent year in and year out. This may be illustrated by their long term track record of success. Take out Yankees and the cardinals may well be considered the most successful organization over the history of the league. They have everything that marks a great organization: multiple championships, legendary players, legendary managers, and legendary broadcasters.
Mo, please dump Fowler and your wish will be granted
The bad years of 1892-1925 (before Branch Rickey’s invention of the farm system paid fruit) are tough to look past, although even the Yankees (or Highlanders) weren’t very good before they bought some guy named Ruth before the 1920 season.
The guy named Ruth didn’t even get a song written about him. Unlike the boy named Sue
Defensive WAR is overrated. In actuality, Fowler had a decent year last year, while Bader was NOT an above-average player. Plus, Fowler’s projections are unreasonably low due to his terrible 2018. Bader needs to hit better to hold on to his starting job, while Fowler has regained enough trust to at least begin the season as the full-time RF (with maybe occasional starts in CF when Bader sits) and is certainly a better option right now than all-or-nothing O’Neill, who may very well amount to nothing more than the second coming of Randal Grichuk. Contending teams can’t afford to experiment with a (very) risky upside play like O’Neill over a comfortable floor performance like Fowler until O’Neill proves himself in limited playing time (of which he should still get a decent amount in LF), otherwise you’re just throwing away wins if he does flop.
Anyway, it will be interesting to see if Dylan Carlson can follow Albert Pujols and Jordan Hicks as a 21-year-old hot prospect with no prior MLB experience to force his way onto the ML roster at the beginning of the season and go on to have a good rookie year. An eventual regular starting outfield of Carlson, Bader, and Fowler may not be so bad.
Defensive WAR is overrated? You’re joking, right?
Defensive WAR can be volatile, but it is generally useful when a player has played for many seasons. Fowler has gotten bad ratings for years now. He had one fluky season in Chicago where he was merely average, but for multiple seasons, he has been mediocre. If you don’t wanna use defensive WAR (which is understandable), we can look at Statcast’s Outs Above Average. Fowler ranked 33rd of all qualified right fielders and 44th of all center fielders; that’s terrible. Now, he’s in his mid-30’s. He’s only gonna get worse.
Bader is absolutely an above-average player. Excellent defense and baserunning gives him a high floor. His OAA was 4th of all center fielders, and offensively, he was quite unlucky. His BABIP of .268 will certainly rise, and an xwOBA of .316, while not great, is much better than the .293 wOBA he produced in 2019. Even with no growth as he enters his prime years, a somewhat below-average hitter with elite defense and baserunning is a solidly above-average player.