Congratulations, St. Louis

You are the champions of baseball, and you just completed one of the most miraculous comebacks in the history of sports.


Source: FanGraphs





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

108 Comments
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Anon21
14 years ago

Well, it could be worse. Could have been the Phillies. Or the Yankees.

BirdStackMember since 2026
14 years ago
Reply to  Anon21

Truth

BDF
14 years ago
Reply to  Anon21

I understand the sentiment, but comparing the Phillies to the Yankees in base hateability is pretty stupid.

Anon21
14 years ago
Reply to  BDF

Not if you’re a Braves fan. And I am.

Chair
14 years ago
Reply to  BDF

Dodger fan here, Philly hate currently on par with Yanks/Sox

Anonymous
14 years ago
Reply to  BDF

Not.

DCN
14 years ago
Reply to  BDF

The Yankees media is definitely the worst, but Phillies fans might be worse than anybody else.

Reuben
14 years ago
Reply to  BDF

If you’re rooting in the NL, hating the Cardinals and the Phillies makes a lot of sense. I hate the Yankees third most.

Antonio Bananas
14 years ago
Reply to  BDF

I’m a baseball fan, Philly hate is on the same level. Huge payroll, and their fans act like they’ve always been good. When those 20M/year contracts are on aging 35 year olds, not going to be packing the park anymore.

Paul B.
14 years ago
Reply to  Anon21

Or the Red Sox

ESPN
14 years ago
Reply to  Paul B.

But the Red Sox are a gritty, lovable, blue collar bunch!

Logic
14 years ago
Reply to  Anon21

Or any of the other 29 teams in MLB…

Anon21
14 years ago
Reply to  Logic

Nah, I think the list of “worse” winners is shorter than you think.

Phillies
Yankees
Red Sox (Arguably. I mean, I have no problem with them, but they do have a huge payroll and legions of adoring/obnoxious fans, so I can easily see the argument here.)

And then the Cardinals follow them, but pretty far down, breaking away from all the irrelevant teams simply by virtue of the fact that they’re managed by a dumb, overrated sonovabitch.

Anonymous
14 years ago
Reply to  Logic

Re: Anon21. There is nothing “arguably” bad about the Red Sox winning. Just bad.

Matt HunterMember since 2016
14 years ago

Baseball.

There’s nothing better.

Matt HunterMember since 2016
14 years ago
Reply to  Matt Hunter

Which means my next 5 months are going to SUCK.

Ben
14 years ago
Reply to  Matt Hunter

seriously. at least i have the hot stove to keep me warm.

Piratesbreak.500
14 years ago
Reply to  Matt Hunter

That’s easy for you to say. I’m a Pirates fan. Our hotstove is typically something like “The Pirates are rumored to be fielding offers for…”

Michael Scarn
14 years ago
Reply to  Matt Hunter

The Pirates are rumored to be fielding offers for Lyle Overbay and Ian Snell.

Kampfer
14 years ago
Reply to  Matt Hunter

Mike Scarn: dun be mean

Jsmith
14 years ago

Game 6!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Game 7…………….

Barkey Walker
14 years ago
Reply to  Jsmith

And… that’s what was so awesome about 1991.

Michael Scully
14 years ago

Carpenter on 3 days rest. One of the manliest postseason pitching performances ever!

Jsmith
14 years ago
Reply to  Michael Scully

Randy on zero days rest.

Barkey Walker
14 years ago
Reply to  Michael Scully

Wasn’t 3 days rest in the WS the norm not that long ago?

Chris from Bothell
14 years ago
Reply to  Michael Scully

He’s not the only son of a carpenter who could work miracles.

chuckb
14 years ago
Reply to  Michael Scully

Should have been the MVP. 19 IP and 6 ER. A great performance.

channelclemente
14 years ago
Reply to  Michael Scully

Manly hell, Grover Cleveland Aklexander pitched complete game victories for the Cardinals against the Yankees in Games 2 and 6 of the 1926 WS, got roaring drunk that night and came back with no sleep and a monster hangover to pitch 3-4 innings of shutout relief in the game 7 win.. By that measure, Carpenters is a sissy boy.

MGL
14 years ago

One of the worst managed WS ever? Or did it just seem that way because it just ended (i.e., they are all managed that poorly)?

The 3 very bad plays that stick out in my mind (I was not paying 100% attention to the game tonight):

1) Andrus bunting at a pitch a foot up and away with a 2-1 count.

2) IBB to Freese to load the bases and pitch to Molina (Molina and Freese are about as good as one another versus a RHP – Molina actually has a legitimate reverse platoon split).

3) Not PH’ing for Carp in the bottom of the 6th.

Probably could have PH for Harrison in the 3rd as well, and brought in CJ. I’m not even sure that Washington knows anything about anyone’s actual platoon splits, given how often he let Berkman bat from the left side.

Unless you have your ace on the mound on normal days rest, pitchers should probably never bat in the last game of a series in an NL park…

Anon21
14 years ago
Reply to  MGL

Molina has a legitimate reverse platoon split? Career 98 tOPS+ vs. righties, career 105 tOPS+ vs. lefties.

Eric W.
14 years ago
Reply to  MGL

Definitely agree with your post. It’s hard to imagine that these guys are paid to do the job that they do. Most people won’t really notice or care how awful it was managed because they will use the defense “well they made it to the WS” but I’m pretty sure most of us are smarter than that.

Kind of feels like the teams are so good that they made it to the world series DESPITE having terrible management.

BascinatorMember since 2022
14 years ago
Reply to  MGL

Game 6 was also poorly managed. LaRussa burned his last bench player before the 9th by announcing Gerald Laird and putting in another PH for him. Also, LaRussa pinch hit the “best hitting” pitcher then removed him for the “best bunter” – how was he not prepared to just go with the best bunter.

The Rangers got burned using the “no doubles” defense yielded a 2B and a 3B in the bottom of the 9th of that game. Also, Washington didn’t keep his best relievers in long enough in that game.

Bad Bill
14 years ago
Reply to  Bascinator

Snort. Monday-morning quarterbacks, to mix metaphors, have always viewed it as their divine right to rag on moves like that, and thump their chests about how they could have done a better job.

They couldn’t, of course.

mark
14 years ago
Reply to  Bascinator

I felt the worst decision of game 6 goes to Wash. Top of the 10th, 2 out, Feldman out. They IBB Pujols so they can face Berkman…from the left side. Where he’s basically as good as Pujols.

You got Gonzalez in the pen who can flip Berkman to bat right handed where he’s nowhere near as good as he is from the left side. So that’s one option. Or you can IBB Berkman, load the bases with 2 out, and face Craig with Feldman.

Instead, they let Berkman bat left handed, and are surprised when he singles in the tying run in the 10th.

The move looks worse in hindsight when Craig grounds out to third to end the inning. Rangers could have won the game right there, or at least picked a better option than letting Berkman bat left handed with the game on the line.

Really, anything would have been better than facing Berkman as a left handed hitter in that spot. I can’t think of a bigger situation that was more poorly managed, especially given that the Rangers had a 1 run lead and 2 out.

mark
14 years ago
Reply to  Bascinator

I apologize, that should read bottom of the 10th.

Eric W.
14 years ago
Reply to  Bascinator

@BadBill no a “Monday-morning quarterback” as you refer to it is a person who uses the results to formulate his opinion of what should have been done. A hindsight is always 20/20 thing. What we’re talking about, however, is that they moves were obviously bad decisions at the time they were made, regardless of outcome. Most of the decisions didn’t directly affect the score anyways, but it doesn’t mean that they weren’t very bad moves.

@mark I agree about the Pujols IBB. I actually made a reply on this site when that happened because of how terrible it was. Berkman actually had better 2011 splits vs RHP and they have virtually identical RHP splits career, so it literally made no sense to load the bases there and give St. Louis a free winning run on 1st base situation. @Bad Bill again, this is what I mean. This decision did not affect the outcome of the game (technically), but it was obviously a very bad move.

Vin
14 years ago

Not thrilled with the result but it was a hell of a series. Baseball is awesome.

ToddM
14 years ago

Texas is working on their legacy as the Buffalo Bills of MLB. Why do I get the feeling that they’re going to keep representing the AL until they win one? As a fan of a different AL team, this is annoying.

Beaster
14 years ago
Reply to  ToddM

Unfortunately (for me as I’m a Bills fan) the Bills didn’t win one

Jeff ZimmermanFanGraphs Staff
14 years ago
Reply to  ToddM

I was more thinking they are looking to be the Braves, they may get one WS along the way.

Mike B.
14 years ago

Ain’t baseball swell?

chuckb
14 years ago

How big was the ball 4 call w/ the bases loaded and Molina at the plate. Pitch was clearly a strike that should have ended the inning w/ the Cards up 3-2 after 5. Instead, Molina walks and it’s 4-2 and Furcal’s hit with the next pitch. 5-2. Huge difference in the game.

potvaliant
14 years ago
Reply to  chuckb

I wouldn’t place a lot of value on that strike zone as framed by Fox – it was nowhere near what was actually being called tonight. That said, it did seem like the low strike was called during the first half of the game, and then it disappeared later.

chuckb
14 years ago
Reply to  potvaliant

I used Brooks baseball. Pretty clearly a strike using pitch f/x. It’s close and umps can’t be perfect but it was a strike and a huge call. If it goes the other way, it’s an entirely different game.

MGL
14 years ago

The umpire, Layne, is a small strike umpire, but it seemed like he was very inconsistent tonight.

“Molina has a legitimate reverse platoon split? Career 98 tOPS+ vs. righties, career 105 tOPS+ vs. lefties.”

Yes, if MGL says he has…

Just kidding. My bad. I read my own numbers wrong. He is -7 (lwts per 150 games) versus RHP and +8 versus LHP. Freese is +1 versus RHP.

In runs created, that is around a 1.11 (RC ratio) advantage for Freese. I don’t think that is nearly enough for an IBB in that situation, but I don’t have The Book handy to check.

chuckb
14 years ago
Reply to  MGL

I checked The Book and it said 1.25 in that situation. Should not have IBB’d Freese.

I always keep my copy of The Bible…I mean, The Book, handy for big games.

Jon
14 years ago

The series did seem incredibly poorly managed, and in fact seemed to get worse and worse as it went along. That being said, the technical aspect of managing is really the only one we can visibly critique whereas managing egos, getting players to have the vibe and confidence of success, off-field work is probably even more important in some sense to get a team to where they can make huge runs at the postseason and be successful.

So the WS was poorly managed, it was overly sloppy but it was also exciting, dramatic, unpredictable, memorable and overall must-watch TV. I can’t complain at all with that and it provided some of the most memorable sports moments I can remember. I’ll miss baseball until next year.

chuckb
14 years ago
Reply to  Jon

Any baseball fan should be happy we got a 7-game, exciting, (if poorly managed and often poorly defensed) World Series.

Scout Finch
14 years ago
Reply to  Jon

Congrats Cardinals !

Enjoy it fans. It was truly memorable.

Good luck with the bulls eye on their back all year next year. Good luck negotiating all the Karmic debt that seems to incur when winning it all. Beware of the Scott Cousins of the league.

They will be very talented next year, but as we know, it isn’t always the team with the most WAR that wins. Its the team that wins that wins it all.

Assuredly they bring Pujols back next year, right ? The alternative would be to sign two Free agents; say Beltran and Rollins, who would actually make for a stronger team than Pujols alone. But we know what will happen.

It will be a lively offseason, an eagerly anticipated spring training and another marathon to the finish line.

GMH
14 years ago
Reply to  Scout Finch

You made me laugh when you asserted that signing Rollins and Beltran would be better for the team than re-signing Pujols. I know if I were the GM, I would be content to replace perhaps the greatest right-handed hitter in history with a 33-year-old shortstop who projects to be about a 2 WAR player going forward and a 34-year-old corner outfielder who can’t stay healthy.

Scout Finch
14 years ago
Reply to  Scout Finch

Is that laughable? Rollins and Beltran combined for 8.5 WAR vs Pujols 5.1 in 2011. Let’s say 2012 R & B combine for 8 and Pujols ups to 7. This is reasonable. In the mean time, Berkman’s OF defense slides to 1st, Craig has an outfield job and SS is upgraded. The Pujols plan constrains the budget in perpetuity, creates a logjam in the OF and still requires the signing of a SS (so tack on another 6-8 million for a Furcal/Barmes type).

It’s a tough decision the front office faces once the hangover ends. It feels like an automatic decision in favor of Pujols, but should it be ?

Antonio Bananas
14 years ago
Reply to  Scout Finch

Beltran had a great year in his contract year, Rollins has been mostly declining forever. Considering the alternatives of Freese and Jay in center, yes, it is laughable to consider they’d be better than resigning Pujols (who is their alternative there?).

Felonius_Monk
14 years ago
Reply to  Scout Finch

Craig doesn’t have an OF job if they sign Beltran, except perhaps against LHP. I’m assuming the lineup would be Holliday, Jay, Beltran (from left to right) vs RHP.

Anyhow, no to Beltran, and no to Rollins. If Pujols doesn’t sign about the only reasonably big-ticket FA I’d be interested in is Kelly Johnson, and obviously retaining Furcal (but not picking up his expensive option).

Bill but not Ted
14 years ago

Cards world series in 2011=six sigma event

PG
14 years ago

I was definitely rooting for the Rangers. I just really can’t stand La Russa/Duncan, and I thoroughly enjoy the Rangers roster.

However, I was conflicted every time I saw a shot of Nolan Ryan and Dubya hanging out. I can’t stand either of those two “gentlemen” and what they represent. Ugh.

Really….this was a lose-lose series. I was going Rangers bc I liked their team much more. My only consolation for the Cards winning is I know it makes Cubs fans squirm.

Eric
14 years ago
Reply to  PG

What exactly does Ryan represent?

Bryz
14 years ago
Reply to  Eric

All of the hard work that Jon Daniels actually did.

Steve
14 years ago
Reply to  Eric

I’m happy the Cards won because I don’t like the DH-league. I also had an uncle from Texas who was always boasting that the state was better than the other 49, and could secede whenever it felt like it. Coming at the height of the Dallas Cowboys’ “America’s Team” obnoxiousness, it led to an anti-Texas bias on my part, though I have since met many nice people from the state.

The NickerMember since 2016
14 years ago
Reply to  Eric

Extra Strength Tylenol

TSF
14 years ago

Let us not forget the 2011 edition of Walker: Texas Ranger.

Bases loaded BBs.

Bases loaded BBs everywhere.

BlackOps
14 years ago

This has to be one of the best, if not the best, two month stretch in baseball history. The best?

Todd
14 years ago

Too much hate going on in this thread. Speaking as a Cardinals’ fan and Game 7 attendee…

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Also, though I admit it’s easier to appreciate it from my standpoint, damn but the last couple of months of baseball have been incredible.

CardinalRules
14 years ago

Thank you, David Cameron.

There were a flurry of articles on Sept 29, 2011on FanGraphs about the amazing end of the regular season. None of them featured the St. Louis Cardinals. It was all Yankees, Rays, and Braves. It seems like the majority of writers here are interested most in the AL and least in the central divisions (of both leagues, but more-so the NL.) I really appreciate the more balanced coverage during the postseason and hope that it continues on.

chuckb
14 years ago
Reply to  CardinalRules

Yawn!

I’m a Cards fan, too, but you can’t hardly read comments on any thread here without running across someone who feels slighted by the coverage of their team on this site. I guess fangraphs is doing its job pretty well if fans from seemingly every team complain about how their team is mistreated by fangraphs’ writers.

CardinalRules
14 years ago
Reply to  chuckb

I was very sad when you stopped writing at Viva El Birdos. Your analysis and ideas were smart and well said. Your argument here is not a good one. But I take your point to heart. Complaints are uninteresting to read and clog up the comment threads. I will refrain from doing it in the future.

steex
14 years ago
Reply to  CardinalRules

To be fair, those articles didn’t feature the Cardinals very prominently because there was virtually no drama in their game. They had a blowout over the worst team in baseball. It was the other games that were interesting, it just so happens that the combined Braves and Cardinals results put STL in the playoffs.

CardinalRules
14 years ago
Reply to  steex

You make a good point.

Templeton1979
14 years ago

What a win! Almost no one expected to see the Cards as series champs, let alone in the playoffs about a month ago. Incredible! Nice to see a 7 game series and the epic game 6 as well.

Colin
14 years ago

Well I’m glad it ended that way. I hate to bring politics into this but I cannot support any team that sits George Bush in the front row and has its part owner high fiving him after every good event. Sorry.

Mr. Jones
14 years ago
Reply to  Colin

This is just… stupid.

Colin
14 years ago
Reply to  Mr. Jones

You work at Goldman?

Anon
14 years ago
Reply to  Colin

George Bush used to own the Rangers…. Between that and being a former president, it kinda makes sense that he could pull some strings or call in a favor to get some good seats.

jim
14 years ago

It’s in the Cards experts: READ ‘EM AND WEEP

JL
14 years ago

Congratulations for a wonderful series, St. Louis.

Sox2727
14 years ago

Does anybody else think it’s time for Tim McCarver to be put out to pasture? The fact that he is still on Fox’s A-Team broadcast is laughable. Fortunately, there won’t be any more talk of the Doc-Carp Brazilian fishing expedition.

Nevertheless, entertaining series and now we move on to the worst 5 months of the year…

Scout Finch
14 years ago
Reply to  Sox2727

How long does the Fox contract run? It would be nice if NBC could reclaim the rights and put Costas & Michaels in the booth. As for radio, Schulman and Hershiser made a nice team.

haha
14 years ago
Reply to  Scout Finch

Except Costas is just as high-and-mighty as Joe Buck is. And why would you have two PBP guys in the booth?

No to Hershiser. His “insights” are nonexistent.

Sox2727
14 years ago
Reply to  Scout Finch

I agree Schulman really did a nice job this year, it was such a nice departure from that ass clown Joe Morgan.

Ryan
14 years ago

Does Fredi Gonzalez get a ring too?

Anon21
14 years ago
Reply to  Ryan
dudleyMember since 2026
14 years ago

I thought McCarver was actually pretty decent compared to the clowns on TBS. At least he sometimes talks about things other than armchair psychoanalysis. Hershiser’s the best, though–he’s constantly providing interesting technical insights into the game.

Sox2727
14 years ago
Reply to  dudley

Here’s just one example of McCarver’s usual great insights:

“Nobody in the park or watching expected that to happen.” This quote was after C.J. Wilson plunked the first hitter he faced in Game 7. This after showing Wilson’s stat line for the postseason and talking about how he has tied a record for most walks in a postseason and commenting on how wild he’s been…not to mention the 75 mentions of the Brazilian fishing expedition of Carp/Doc.

dudleyMember since 2026
14 years ago

Did Washington basically cost the Rangers the series with his bone headed moves? The guy is such an idiot, I’m surprised he can even tie his own shoes in the morning.

Joey E.
14 years ago

i cant believe the rasmus trade worked. still today, on paper that trade looked like rape for the Jays. and you can say it was still a stupid deal, but they won the title, right?

CircleChange11
14 years ago
Reply to  Joey E.

That trade turned the season around for StL.

Taskmaster
14 years ago
Reply to  Joey E.

The bullpen was THAT BAD, and McClellan was starting to regress as expected, so the deal stabilized the team.

cs3
14 years ago

serious question…

both TLR and Wash can be called terrible baseball strategists. I think everyone (here at least) would agree.

But can you really say they are awful managers?
How much does in game strategy and managerial decision making really effect the outcome of a game, a series, or a season?

I would argue that it has very little impact, and much much less than keeping the players sharp, motivated, and playing with max effort.
And i look at the red sox debacle as proof.
There is much more to managing a team than pure baseball strategy.

You can make the argument that professional players, making millions of dollars, shouldnt *need* to be motivated to perform at their peak and give max effort, and not slack off – but the fact is that most humans need to be motivated by other humans.

jlive
14 years ago
Reply to  cs3

I agree with the overall point that these guys are great personnel managers but not good strategists (tacticians?). What I can’t figure out is why they don’t have good tactical people calling the actual games from behind a curtain somewhere …

Is it as simple as ego? Or is it that the front offices just can’t see the blindingly obvious tactical/strategic failures?

cs3
14 years ago
Reply to  jlive

ya, tactician is the word i was looking for rather than strategist.

ive always wondered that as well. its clear that there are very very few people capable of being a master tactician AND a great personnel manager. joe maddon is the only guy i can think of in mlb off the top of my head.

it seems like professional soccer clubs often take the approach of employing a manager who is good with personnel decisions and motivation, and coaches who are experienced tacticians that can help make in game adjustments.

perhaps its the next MLB market inefficiency?

mike71
14 years ago
Reply to  jlive

It just….doesnt work that way. The problem is, who would be in charge? Someone HAS to have the final say on in game management, and that person would be your traditional manager who would hire/have as a tactician someone that subscribes to their philosophy.

In football you have your head coach and your offense and defense coordinator, but when the buck comes down to it, the head coach can override anything, because he’s ultimately in charge.

Essentially you have to pick who you think is the best guy for the job overall, and live with the deficiencies. Kind of like having Manny as your left fielder. You really cant get mad when he inevitably bounces a ball off of his head.

Felonius_Monk
14 years ago
Reply to  jlive

I think it’s partly that MLB management (as used to be the case with GMs) is simply the equivalent of a “tallest midget” contest. The players won’t accept a non-baseball guy at the helm (presumably) and most of the (ex-player, “baseball guy”) managers are pretty outright bad at making appropriate tactical decisions (a job which, to my eyes at least, seems to be fairly facile). TLR is a poor and frustrating manager, but he’s probably far from being the worst in MLB, somewhat incredibly, and the actually competent managers are few and far between.

I wonder if one of the new inefficiencies in baseball that smart teams will begin to exploit is having ex-baseball players who actually know something about the game managing teams (I wonder if Brian Bannister will move into that role), instead of washed-up, old-school types like TLR and Charlie Manuel.

MGL
14 years ago
Reply to  cs3

“I would argue that it has very little impact, and much much less than keeping the players sharp, motivated, and playing with max effort.”

That is not an argument, that is a blind (with no evidence – the Red Sox example is an anecdote, not evidence) assertion.

I agree, of course, that a manager’s value is multi-fold. How much value there is in each of those folds, I am afraid that no one knows. It also all depends on your baseline. The baseline for strategy decisions is obvious. Optimal is the baseline, or at least the most logical. For leadership/motivation/teaching, etc., what is the baseline? I have no idea. I guess the “replacement level” manager in terms of those attributes…

Born in DC
14 years ago

OK, firstly, let me stress that as a DC native, I harbor no ill will or resentment to the fine people of Arlington, Texas, who were merely the recipients of a (nearly) Major League baseball team. Nor do I curse the memory of Bob Short, who absconded with my (lousy, but) beloved Senators just four decades ago.
And, secondly, Karma has nothing to do with the fact that current Washington National, Tyler Clippard, won the 2011 All Star game, giving home field to the St. Louis Cardinals, and ultimately, the World Series Championship, despite being down to their last strike, twice, TWICE, in game 6. But, if I was strapped to a chair, and good Governor Rick Perry was set to plug it in, I still wouldn’t root for the Texas Rangers.

Candlestick Parker
14 years ago

Congratulations to the Cardinals and their fans. Very worthy champs. And thank you for keeping the world championship in the Senior Circuit.

Candlestick Parker
14 years ago

By the way, no matter how often the error is repeated in the semi-“official” record books, the fact is that they are the same franchise that entered the AL as the Washington Nationals in 1901. The Twins were a 1961 expansion team, but they had all of Washington’s assets tranferred to them (but not the name, records, and history) thanks to Calvin Griffith’s racism and greed.

This means that contrary to the Fox graphics, the Rangers franchise is looking for it’s first World title since 1924, a drought second only to that of the Cubs.

I think the reincarnated NL Washington Nationals will get there first.

cs3
14 years ago

another thing to point out is that washington did NOT cost the rangers the championship. sure he could have made better decisions but if you want to single anybody out then blame the Texas bullpen.

the rangers had better than a 90% win expectancy in the final inning of the clinching game of world series (game 6), and the bullpen failed. TWICE!

MGL
14 years ago
Reply to  cs3

Whether a manager or player “cost” a game or a championship is a silly and somewhat metaphysical concept. If a player makes an error early in a game and his team still wins, and he makes that same error on the 9th inning to “cost” his team the win, do those errors have the same value? It is like the tree falling in the forest example. There is no “correct” answer.

On the other hand, from a “critique” standpoint, such as the decisions by Washington, LaRussa or any other manager, it is silly and fruitless to argue whether a certain decision or non-decision “cost” a game or championship. It has no relevance. It doesn’t change the level of competence of the manager, other than perhaps, in retrospective “value”.

Every time a manager or player makes a mistake, the best thing to do is to evaluate and dole out “points” for that mistake in a context-neutral fashion, as we do for most offensive and defensive metrics.

Each of those mistakes that a manager makes is typically not worth “that much” (although that is subjective and semantical), on the order of 1% in WE or less, but anything is something and they can add up to something significant.

The only way to really put the magnitude of the value of those mistakes in context is to compare them to the value of a player win on the FA market. A manager can easily cost his team a win per season in “mistakes” relative to a “perfect” manager (who makes optimal decisions, including using information that we are not privy to). That is worth around 5 million dollars on the FA market. A manager typically makes a million dollars a year or less, other than a few of the high profile managers (who make several million). If you make a million a year and cost your team 5 million, to me, that is a significant cost…

cs3
14 years ago
Reply to  MGL

using that reasoning, would you agree that its nearly impossible for any MLB manager to return positive value on managers?
none of them work for free, and (just based on your post above) i assume you think that managers are worth between -1 and +1 wins per year. And actually it would be much much more difficult to to be perfect on the positive end of the spectrum than on the negative side.

So following that logic, managers as a whole are a money losing investment.

So there must be a more efficient way to either 1) pay managers or 2) structure management

YazInLeft8
14 years ago

Washington is great with communicating with players, at least give him that.

Can we really call the winners and losers of the Rasmus trade yet? In five years, we may be looking at Rasmus tearing up the AL East and Rkdskjfdnjvn becoming a low salary cap LOOGY. In five years, we may be asking who Edwin Jackson is.

Time will tell, not two months.

CircleChange11
14 years ago
Reply to  YazInLeft8

In 5 years, StL will still be the 2011 World Champs.

You really think Rasmus is going to be head and shoulders above Jay/Craig?

StL won a championship in the year when their best pitcher was lost during ST.

In 5 years we could all be wondering what happened to Colby Rasmus.

YazInLeft8
14 years ago
Reply to  CircleChange11

Fair enough, but in a giant hypothetical, say the Cards lost Game 7. Would your argument be totally different?

Felonius_Monk
14 years ago
Reply to  CircleChange11

I’m not sure the result of game 7 makes THAT much difference. The Cardinals gained a hypothetical 2 wins (or so) by making the trade in 2011, and then basically swapped 3 more years of Rasmus for 4 years of Rzep and a draft pick (or two) after that. It’s probably a trade that they were slightly on the losing side of, but it’s not quite as big a disaster as it was framed at the time (especially since Rasmus’ value was at an all-time low, partly due to TLR’s interference).

Even if the Cardinals lost game 7, they probably made (at a wild estimate) $50-100m in revenue by appearing in 9 post-season home games. That is far, far greater than the likely surplus value of Colby Rasmus for the next three years.

Antonio Bananas
14 years ago
Reply to  CircleChange11

On average teams only make around 11M in the playoffs. I highly doubt the Cards made 100M extra. That’s ridiculous. I wish I could find the article (from an economics journal, not ESPN). It was about the value of adding a player that propels a team to the playoffs.

Maybe the Cards made 40-50M, but 100M seems steep to me. Might not be though. Who knows was concessions they had or parking etc. Not only that but aren’t playoff games split between home and road? Home team doesn’t collect 100% and I’m pretty sure some games go to the players, I wanna say the first 3? There’s some way they distribute playoff revenue, it’s not “home team gets all the money at home”.

Jake
14 years ago
Reply to  YazInLeft8

Flags fly forever.

robclark52
14 years ago

What a glorious finish to the baseball season. The national media overwhelmingly picked the Rangers, despite their lack of pitching dominance and the reality thatt the Cardinals were hot. The disrespect for the Cardinals as World Series contenders was similar to 2006, when they were panned by some as the worst World Series team ever before beating the Tigers in five games. Nelson Cruz failing to catch David Freese’s soon-to-be-game-tying-triple in Game 6 will scar the Rangers’ psyche as much as being back-to-back World Series losers. For Cardinals fans, we couldn’t be prouder of how this team pulled together and represented the city.

In the beyond-the-lines department, for some this World Series is payback from St. Louis to Dallas for the American-TWA merger ten years ago, wherein American cut half the TWA workforce and ended St. Louis as an airline hub. For many thousands of workers who lost their jobs and the St. Louis transplants working for American Airlines in Dallas this past decade, this championship was sweet revenge.

Antonio Bananas
14 years ago
Reply to  robclark52

I really REALLY hate people like you. This whole “us against them” crap is why I am no longer a cards fan. Every cards fan I know is like this. If you lose, you were screwed, if you win, you were sticking it to the man. Fact is, most people don’t care.

I realize that most fans, to an extent, are like you, but Cards fans seem to do it way more. I went to Wrigley over the summer, people weren’t like that, they didn’t even really care as much about the Cubs/Cards rivalry as the Cards fans do. Cards fans just seem to talk and talk and talk and talk and make crazy accusations and claims all the time.

CircleChange11
14 years ago

AB,

Not sure that is all that accurate. I’m a Cardinal fan that lives in Cub Country and the Cub fans seemingly treat the rivalry as their World Series.

IMO, TLR has had this effect on the organization, where he feels the world is against them … And the fans follow suit. I don’t like that.

FWIW, a lot of Cub fans have been congratulatory and have expressed to me how much they enjoyed game 6. That was pretty new. I think we have in general a tendency to attribute the worst of a group to the whole.