Contract Crowdsourcing 2020-21: The Kolten Wong Ballot
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract-crowdsourcing project, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2020-21 free-agent market.
This year, we’ve added a few new features to the ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. We’ve elected to show averages from the 2017-2019 seasons so that this year’s shortened slate doesn’t skew the numbers, but we’ve also included 2020 stats as a point of recent reference. 2020 salary figures represent players’ pre-pandemic contract amounts. Statistics are prorated to full season where noted; the projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2021 Steamer600 projections.
Below is a ballot for one of this year’s free agents — in this case, Kolten Wong, whose $12.5 million 2021 club option was declined by the Cardinals today.
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
Pretty baffling decline unless every player is ridiculously underpriced this year; that’ll do wonders for future labor peace I’m sure.
Honestly I think Mozeliak is on the way out sooner rather than later.
Part of it is that salaries will be depressed for most players this offseason, but another part of it is that he plays second base. The market for second base has been ludicrously soft the last few years.
I think that Wong should land a multi-year contract if he wants it–maybe a 3-year contract?–but it’s going to be for an AAV less than that option. He’s probably one of about 15-20 players who has a good shot at something more than a one-year deal.
Yeah I went 3/24 myself
Ha, that’s exactly what I predicted too.
I’m shocked. Even if players are undervalued, he’s still worth a lot unless you’re expecting/worried that next year will duplicate this year. I’d have picked it up just for trade value.
Gorman could end up at 2B by mid-2020 at best. Who knows. He has an average arm grade so stick him over at 2B where he could be one of the best offensive-minded 2B while being a likely competent defender. But his lack of range leaves me to believe he should probably stick at 3B over 2B. They also have Tommy Edman who can play 2B, even though he had an underwhelming 2020.
Some players can make that transition, but they’ve gotta be really solid at third and athletic as heck. Gorman is absolutely not gonna move to second; there’s a good chance he only stays at third until Goldschmidt leaves. And sure, the Cardinals have players to pencil in at second and third. The problem is that one of them is Carpenter, who is in severe decline and is now the presumptive starting third baseman in 2021.
The Nationals declined Eaton, Kendrick, Thames and Anibal Sanchez. There are going to be a LOT of veteran free agents.
To be fair, most of those guys were awful last year. I think you can expect most of the club options to be declined except for Rizzo, Martin Perez (I wouldn’t but it will get picked up), Merrill Kelly, Iglesias, and probably Gyorko, Gamel, and Hand (in a normal year I would say they get picked up easily, who knows right now).
I’m more curious about the non-tenders, myself.
Agreed. (And agreed on non-tenders.). My point is that volume will be high, which means free agency will be more competitive, which means teams have more options available, which naturally depresses wages… which means that more options will be declined and players non-tendered, which creates a circular effect…
Not a ton of talk so far re the non-tenders, but it will likely be massive. Some (e.g., Eddie Rosario) were maybe 50/50 chance of being non-tendered prior to Covid, and are nearly certain non-tenders at this point. Market will be awash in free agents.
I mean Brad Hand just got unconditionally waived.
There is probably a 100% chance he gets picked up by the Red Sox if he makes it that far. He might not even make it that far–the Pirates, Rangers, and Tigers are ahead of them. There are probably only another 5-6 teams that would cut bait on Hand like this.
I don’t know. Speculation is that the Indians offered him around the league and no one was willing to pay his $10 million salary + give up anything of value for him. I’m sure there’s some team that would simply claim him and be on the hook for his $10 million salary. Not sure why teams like the Pirates, Tigers, etc. would do that.
Nope.
Not in 2020.
He’ll hit free agency in 3…2…
That would blow my mind. Hand is certainly one of the top 20 relievers in baseball right now, potentially top 10. If no one is willing to pick him at that price up we’re talking about a very, very cold stove.
I would expect the Red Sox, Nationals, Mets, and Angels to jump at that (and if he somehow got further than that, the Phillies for sure). It’s a good enough deal I could see the Tigers ($67M committed in 2021) or Rangers ($81M committed) claiming him instead of signing a free agent. With Kirby Yates’s injury, he’d be the second best reliever on the FA market, behind Hendriks.
Sadtrombone: a very cold stove is what’s coming.
Phase one will be to cut back commitments to the bone.
Phase two will be to wait until a vaccine is in broad distribution.
Phase three will be a retrenching for two-three years in the expectation that even with a vaccine people will be leary of crowds. Figure most ballparks will run at 50% or less and not necessarily by regulation or team guidelines. People will just play it safe.
One likely outcome: local streamining subscriptions.
Assuming there isn’t a third of fourth wave affecting the players, tbat is.
2020 was like nothing that came before.
21 and 22 will be different in new ways, also like nothing before.
Talent and contract valuations are up in the air.
And it is simply way too early to try to predict what even big budget teams will have to work with when the teams themselves don’t know. All they know is they have to minimize expenses until they can at least guess. And that hinges on the vaccines.
Baseball in the time of Pandemic.
Assuming the Indians called around the league and no one offered anything of value, that implies that teams are valuing Hand at roughly 10 million or less. And if they didn’t call around, this is worse than the Brantley situation.
EMH1969: Checked up at the Cleveland PD site and the reason the team put Hand on irrevocable waivers isn’t the option they’re not picking up but rather the buyout of $1M.
They’re hoping somebody picks him up and they save the buyout.
As for why they’re *that* pressed for money is they need to find $200M to pay for the shares of minority investor Sherman who is buying the Royals. The shares are in escrow and need to be paid for eventually.
The options are for Dolan to sell the team, find another minority investor wth $200M to park in team shares, or buy them himself.
So yes, Hand is gone, Santana and Hernandez next, and Carrasco and his $12M salary are next. (They’re very high on Quantrill as a starter.)
And Perez has a $5.5M option…
Every million counts towards the $200M bill.
So, any bets?
Were you surprised?
Cleveland has shown in the past that $10M is a lot for them.
And that was before 2020.
Plus Karinchak is ready to step up at league minimum and the pipeline is deep.
Plenty of non-tenders and waivers to come.
No gate revenues and I seriously doubt that what MLB got from the “season” and tournament is going to support payroll expansion at many, if any, teams.
And yes, it’s going to be murder come CBA negotiation time but this is one year most owners will happily open their books. Best scenario for tge union might be a two year extension of the current CBA.
There are some that I think are pretty much guaranteed to be declined unless they sign at a vastly reduced rate. Renato Nunez is probably not getting tendered; he’s going to be hoping for a guaranteed contract. Travis Shaw will be non-tendered again. Nomar Mazara and Hunter Renfroe and deShields should be non-tendered, and probably will. Steven Matz is probably gone, and the Phillies might be ready to give up on Velazquez.
The Marlins might be tempted to non-tender Aguilar, despite paying virtually no money to anyone else and him being a useful 1B, to give Lewin Diaz a chance. The same with Adam Frazier and the Pirates. It seems like yesterday that Dayton Moore was talking about extending Soler but he’s going to cost a lot of money.
Others, just from looking at the random list here, include Hansel Robles. I would even think that Adam Duvall might be at risk too, which is wild considering that this is the first year he’s been playable since 2017. You could even see Schwarber get non-tendered, maybe, although Theo loves him so maybe not.
A lot of non-tenders…
Which will only feed to non-tender wave.
The more players get cut loose, the bigger the temptation to fish in troubled waters. We’ve already seen it play out in 18 and 19, so why should 20 be different? With an actual incentive/excuse in the uncertainty for 21?
Just yesterday Fauci said there might not be a “semblance of normality” til 22. One fanless season was a stretch for several teams. Two?
It’s the Charlie Finley theory made real; flood the market with free agents and watch them compete for jobs.
It’s going to like 2018, but way worse. I just hope that IMG Academy will even be allowed to host a free agent spring training this time. The money isn’t flowing to the players this offseason.
Fauci just gave teams all the excuse they need to cut move/everybody with no control past 21.
So, assuming Wainwright and Molina are re-signed (Waino for a bit more than 2020’s numbers, Molina for a bit less), I guess the Cardinals’ payroll is tapped. I figured Wong at $12 million was a solid value, if not exciting, but it seems as if the team isn’t paying for solid value in 2021. I know the Cardinals count on attendance revenue more than most teams, so I guess it makes sense, but it doesn’t give me much hope as a fan of them improving the team.
The farm is devoid of nearly-ready positional talent, so I suppose the plan is to give a fully washed-up Carpenter full-time at-bats at third and play Edman at second? Not only will that fail spectacularly, it will give Carpenter enough at-bats for his expensive option to vest. Ouch! There’s the caveat that we only just started the offseason, but if the team isn’t going to spend any money and has a below-average farm system with which to bundle assets for trades, I’m not sure I see an improved team in 2021.
As for Wong, he’ll get a multi-year deal, but I bet his AAV is well-below his actual value. Maybe 3/$21 or 4/$25? Someone’s getting a deal at the expense of the Cardinals front office. What’s new?
The Cardinals still want to resign Wong, and they could always sign someone else to play 2B if Wong goes elsewhere.
They said they are keeping the door open, which is boilerplate front office jargon. Wong’s not gonna sign for much less than $12 million per year, so unless his market totally craters, he probably isn’t coming back. And anyone available for under $12 million will be worse than Wong.