Contract Crowdsourcing 2024-25: Ballot 1 of 10
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2024-25 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2025 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for 10 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of position players, including the winter’s top free agent.
- Has averaged 3.6 WAR per 600 PA for 2022-2024.
- Recorded 688 PA and 4.8 WAR in 2024.
- Is projected to record 3.5 WAR per 600 PA.
- Is entering his age-29 season.
- Previous Contract: 1 yr, $12.25M (2024)
- 2024 Salary: $12.3M
- Has averaged 2.8 WAR per 600 PA for 2022-2024.
- Recorded 695 PA and 2.1 WAR in 2024.
- Is projected to record 2.4 WAR per 600 PA.
- Is entering his age-30 season.
- Previous Contract: 1 yr, $20.5M (2024)
- 2024 Salary: $20.5M
- Has averaged 2.8 WAR per 600 PA for 2022-2024.
- Recorded 569 PA and 2.2 WAR in 2024.
- Is projected to record 2.9 WAR per 600 PA.
- Is entering his age-29 season.
- Previous Contract: 3 yr, $80M (2024), 2025-26 player options
- 2024 Salary: $27.5M
- Has averaged 4.2 WAR per 600 PA for 2022-2024.
- Recorded 634 PA and 4.1 WAR in 2024.
- Is projected to record 3.7 WAR per 600 PA.
- Is entering his age-31 season.
- Previous Contract: 5 yr, $100M (2020-24)
- 2024 Salary: $28.5M
- Has averaged 2.6 WAR per 600 PA for 2022-2024.
- Recorded 652 PA and 3.5 WAR in 2024.
- Is projected to record 2.1 WAR per 600 PA.
- Is entering his age-32 season.
- Previous Contract: 1 yr, $23.5M (2024); AAV lowered by deferrals
- 2024 Salary: $23.5M
- Has averaged 3.8 WAR per 600 PA for 2022-2024.
- Recorded 470 PA and 2.6 WAR in 2024.
- Is projected to record 3.5 WAR per 600 PA.
- Is entering his age-29 season.
- Previous Contract: 4 yr, $28M (2021-24), 2025 mutual option
- 2024 Salary: $7.0M
- Has averaged 2.3 WAR per 600 PA for 2022-2024.
- Recorded 473 PA and 2.5 WAR in 2024.
- Is projected to record 2.2 WAR per 600 PA.
- Is entering his age-30 season.
- Previous Contract: 1 yr, $5.85M (2024)
- 2024 Salary: $5.9M
- Has averaged 2.4 WAR per 600 PA for 2022-2024.
- Recorded 665 PA and 3.3 WAR in 2024.
- Is projected to record 2.3 WAR per 600 PA.
- Is entering his age-30 season.
- Previous Contract: 1 yr, $11.7M (2024)
- 2024 Salary: $11.7M
- Has averaged 5.1 WAR per 600 PA for 2022-2024.
- Recorded 713 PA and 8.1 WAR in 2024.
- Is projected to record 5.8 WAR per 600 PA.
- Is entering his age-26 season.
- Previous Contract: 1 yr, $31M (2024)
- 2024 Salary: $31.0M
- Has averaged 2.5 WAR per 600 PA for 2022-2024.
- Recorded 665 PA and 1.7 WAR in 2024.
- Is projected to record 2.8 WAR per 600 PA.
- Is entering his age-28 season.
- Previous Contract: 1 yr, $14.2M (2024)
- 2024 Salary: $14.2M
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
I’m not sure my ballots are submitting, hitting submit doesn’t seem to change anything. (Chrome on Windows if that matters.)
I’m probably way off this year, but looking at these, I wanted to give Soto 16 years (yes, that’s absurd, but the team will want to defer money and a longer contract is one way to do that).
On the opposite side, I had three of these players accepting qualifying offers, which strikes me as very unlikely to happen, but just looking at the numbers felt right for each of the players in question.
It should be working now – sorry, there was a backend glitch.
This time they submitted, thanks.