Corollary Damage: Kumar Rocker, the MLB Draft, and a Better Way Forward
On Sunday, the Mets announced that they would not offer a contract to Vanderbilt ace Kumar Rocker. New York had selected the right-hander with the 10th overall pick in the draft just a few weeks earlier, but backed out of a deal upon seeing his medicals. Rocker’s camp was understandably upset. Scott Boras released a statement on his client’s behalf, declaring that Rocker is healthy, ready to pitch, and set to embark on his professional career. It’s a gut-wrenching situation, particularly since no other team is allowed to sign Rocker. He plans to enter the 2022 draft, but for now, he’s in purgatory.
However disappointed Rocker and Mets fans justifiably are, there’s a larger, structural issue at play here, one that overshadows Rocker’s medicals, or even the Mets’ approach to handling them. Steve Cohen violated Rule No. 1 (never Tweet, Steve) but New York isn’t dangling Rocker’s big league dreams for sport: They picked Rocker in good faith and must have really disliked what they saw in his file, particularly since they didn’t have the foresight to take an overslot guy late in the draft as backup. After signing all of their other selections, the Mets wound up leaving more than $1 million in bonus pool money on the table. Nobody wins here.
Like Barret Loux and Brady Aiken before him, Rocker deserves better than to get the rug yanked out from under him like this. I’m sure he has many gripes with how this all played out, but his biggest shouldn’t be with the Mets, but rather with the draft itself.
First implemented in 1965, the draft has been alive for longer than most of you reading this piece. Thanks in part to the spectacle that the NBA and (particularly) NFL events have become, a sports draft now feels like an American institution. As currently marketed, the draft is not just a day on the calendar but an event, a beacon of hope for the future. Feeling down on your luck, Pirates fans? At the draft, you too can catch a Trout!
Distilled to its core though, the draft is an immoral exercise where big league clubs distribute laborers with minimal consent, designed and structured in a manner to limit expenses. There’s no line of work outside of sports that allocates employees to specific businesses like this: The players who get drafted each year never agreed to this system and never would if they had a choice. The unfairness of it all becomes crystal clear under any kind of scrutiny. It would be ridiculous if Bob’s Plumbing in New York held the exclusive rights to my labor simply because they drafted me out of school and it’s no less absurd that the Mets have that kind of power over Rocker.
Rocker’s case is an instructive reminder that the draft has always been a money grab with an indiscriminate sprinkling of collateral damage. MLB originally implemented the exercise because owners were tired of paying large bonuses for amateur players (the $200,000 bonus given to Rick Reichardt was the final straw) and looking for ways to cut scouting and acquisition expenses. Finding ways to pay less for amateur talent has been a frequent hobbyhorse throughout baseball history, and the draft has given several generations of owners opportunities to rope off the free market.
Perhaps the best example is the now-defunct Scouting Bureau, a Nixon-era creation that furnished clubs with a centralized league-wide scouting operation. It offered scouting reports on players and recommendations for where teams should select them, and the enterprise helped the league’s stingiest teams save money by downsizing their own departments. More recently, the league has steadily used the draft to encroach on player rights, first suggestively with slot recommendations in the Selig era, and then more directly by instituting bonus pools and banning big league contracts for recent draftees.
Competitive balance is the lone good-faith argument for the draft’s existence, but even that is a modest and ancillary benefit of an otherwise exploitative system. The recent epidemic of teams tanking for draft position raises legitimate questions about the benefit of rewarding those who best execute their planned ineptitude. But even granting that the ends justify the means, it’s hard to look at this year’s first round — where the consensus top talent went to Boston and a clear top-10 player fell all the way to pick 16 just because — and think the draft is balancing anything.
Of course, the Players Association deserves some blame for the state of affairs. It takes two parties to agree on a CBA, and the big leaguers have shown time and again that they’ll sell out the amateurs in exchange for a few creature comforts. In addition to the damage done to their own financial interests, over the last two negotiations the players have allowed ownership to authorize bonus pools and spending restrictions for international signees. The return for those concessions — a few more off days, fractionally higher minimum salaries, better accommodations in visiting clubhouses, more room on team buses (seriously) — are almost cringingly light.
But I digress. If unfairness is the biggest single problem with the draft, a close second is that it’s not clear anyone outside of the owners benefits from it. The players hate it, for obvious reasons. Team personnel are more split, but there’s another way to distribute talent that makes better use of everyone’s time and labor. Most fans don’t give a hoot about the MLB Draft, and for the diehards who are paying attention, there’s a more entertaining way forward. For once it’s the NCAA that shows us a path in the right direction: National Signing Day.
In college football (and basketball to a lesser extent) the day on which (many) recruits announce which school they’ll attend and sign their letters of intent is a damn circus. With top players, you have all of the suspense of a draft pick, but with far more possibilities on where they may land. The enthusiasm that Signing Day generates suggests that whatever interest people get out of pre-MLB draft rumor-mongering would only multiply ten-fold in an environment where every player was theoretically available to every team.
There are other benefits as well. One obvious one is that, with more freedom, teams would undoubtedly pursue a whole bunch of different strategies. Perhaps the Angels want to make a splash and sign three of the class’s 10 best players; maybe the Marlins decides to plant a flag in Florida and signs only local players. That would be fun to follow! Such a system would also be compatible with the current bonus limitations and appease anyone worried about competitive balance. You simply give certain teams more money to spend, just like the league does now.
To bring this back to Rocker, the best feature of all is that it would let club and player come together in a mutually favorable manner. The next Rocker wouldn’t be hamstrung if one club flinched at his medicals because there are 29 other teams that may think the MRIs look just fine, or at least, fine enough. It also would allow players to find player development environments more conducive to their routines and training practices, and would all but end the charade of players trying to stop certain teams from drafting them by tossing out absurd signing bonus demands. In short, you could have all of the financial savings and all of the competitive balance of a draft, while hopefully sprucing up interest and giving the Rockers of the world a chance to pick their employer. If I had my way, I’d do away with the draft and bonus pools entirely, and simply let players seek out the largest contract the market would bear. But just because that’s unlikely to happen doesn’t mean the exercise can’t be rendered more fair.
Brendan covers prospects and the minor leagues for FanGraphs. Previously he worked as a Pro Scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
I’m super cool with this idea. Ive always found it awfully cruel that someone could be forced to go live anywhere for several years based on the draft. I know the rest of us like to be able to pick where we live and we balance all the relevant factors with compensation. I’ve got personal preferences, but you could probably pay me enough to go Des Moines (or at least to a smaller city that still has an mlb team, let’s say Milwaukee).
There are about to be a hundred people in here who will claim that the Yankees and dodgers will get all the good players because they’ll all just want to play in New York and LA. They say the same thing about international signings.
It wouldn’t be just the Yankees and Dodgers, but who is going to sign up to play in Tampa? Detroit? Kansas City? Have those players ever gotten top-flight free agents? Cabrera was traded to Detroit, same for Cruz.
The people that they offer a lot of money to. Or maybe they have other stuff to offer. No income tax, nice weather in Tampa, maybe more opportunity at the major league club. Under the proposal here, as I understand it, there would be limited funds, like draft pools, so the amount of money at play wouldn’t be enough to price out those teams. They don’t get top flight free agents because they rarely offer the most money, but it happens with extensions, eg Cabrera and Stanton in Miami.
Players have different incentives than us Joe 12-packs, but if you judge states on population growth, it would seem people would rather live in states other than New York and California. If the financial advantages of the teams in those states have were to be reduced, I think, after a few years, we’d begin to see a fairly even dispersal of talent,
That’s not really a true multi-year trend. The rust belt and places like West Virginia are losing a higher % of people than CA and NY.
I think you’re right that absolutely nobody is signing in Tampa but Kansas City would actually be fine. KC engendered a ton of goodwill for their stance towards minor leaguers during COVID, and I think they treat their minor leaguers better than most other orgs (the only one I can think of that might be in the same class is Houston). Although I don’t think getting rid of the draft is feasible, it would be really good for minor leaguers.
This makes me like the idea a whole lot more.
agree with what you say, to me they are either franchises or separate businesses.
The big markets want it both ways, they like this free market system so things go to highest bidder and the revenue isn’t shared, but if they want to be separate business, they strip territorial rights os if Oakland or Tampa wants to move to Brooklyn no territorial right payments to NY teams. either your franchises or separate businesses.
There used to be 3 teams in NY, 2 in Boston, 2 in Philadelphia, 2 in St. Louis, but the big market teams control the whole rules of the game, they complain about Tampa’s lack of spending but if they want to increase their revenue by moving to another area they have to pay territorial rights , McDonalds doesn’t pay Burger King if the put a restaurateur right next to them do they?
To me either their franchises like the NFL, with a draft and sharing the revenue or get rid of the draft anything goes, but let teams move where they want.
This is the very core of the issue. Rich teams stay rich because they happen to have gotten the most lucrative real estate early in the game.
Congrats, guys. You win. Now let’s restart the game with a level playing field and enjoy baseball as a sport — not merely a means to capitalize on premium locations.
But, but, but… capitalizing on premium locations is what it’s all about!
This is the one good thing that would come with this type of draft. Teams would have more incentive to treat minor league players well.
I don’t know. Tampa has had such a great player development system. I’d think this would be a major incentive.
If you need a draft to force players into your franchise, your franchise should not exist or should be completely reformulated. Taking out MLB’s anti-trust exemption should also be part of this conversation.
Yes–however, changing this would require incredible changes to the league. MLB would have to have the balls to mandate those changes.
I agree–and the MLBPA should do a better job of advocating for its non-set-for-life members, absolutely. Not sure why I got downvoted; are people really excited about 18 yr olds being forced into the Ricketts’ machine?
Less desirable teams could become more competitive for players by raising the floor of what they offer minor leaguers, e.g. better salaries, facilities, nutrition, and help to rectify the things wrong with the sport in that regard.
FWIW Detroit has gotten plenty of free agents who were seen as top-flight at the time–Prince Fielder and Jordan ZImmermann and Justin Upton, off the top of my head. Two of those were disasters, but it’s not like in-demand guys didn’t sign with Detroit when Mike Illitch was throwing money around. And the reason KC and Tampa (and Pittsburgh) don’t sign big-name guys isn’t that nobody wants to play there, it’s that they don’t make big-name offers.
And Pudge, the most influential free agent Detroit has signed this century.
Prince wasn’t a disaster for Detroit, he could be described as such for the Rangers after he netted the Tigers Kinsler, who had a good stretch in Detroit.
That is why there remains a limit on what each team can spend.
Then they can either pay more, or treat their players better.
The league might have to put some kind of cap for competitive reasons, but this still might encourage teams to make their systems more inviting. I mean colleges spend all kinds of taxpayer dollars to build nice facilities to attract talent. Teams would try to improve their image. Not to be argumentative, but with Tampa’s excellent player development system, I think they would be one of the top destinations, but if they lost players they wanted for whatever reason, they’re a smart team; you know they would make changes.
As Cole Hamels signs with LA, it does lend a little more credence to the idea that the Dodgers and Yankees would just end up with everyone. What’s the Dodgers payroll these days, 400 million?
37 year old Cole Hamels is a totally different scenario than an amateur who is going to be sent to the minors. And again, the proposal is not for a totally free market, but one with a bonus pool.
When only a couple teams behave as though there *isn’t* a hard cap, those teams become superteams.
What does Cole Hamels, at best a fringe major leaguer at this point, have to do with this conversation?
Well, we already had a FA system before the draft and NYY did pretty well in talent acquisition and it showed in the dynasty results.
Also, the rich teams already get all the elite talent 5 or so years into their careers, so you now want to give them those first 5 years too?!
Changing MLB-TV blackout rules would mitigate that.
There are 100 people who would say that because that is definitely what would happen. Look at the NCAA that was referenced, there are a handful of schools in every sport that the top high schoolers commit to and those teams dominate the sport. There is a larger pool of college level talent so this can still make the national sport interesting, but that would not work when you only have 30 teams, about 5 of which everyone would want to sign with and more important would have the $$ to snag all of the top players. If you limited everyone’s $ they have to spend then it would be a little more doable, although it’s still likely you’d have the same couple teams signing the top couple players almost every year and that’s hugely important in MLB when really only the top couple guys are anything close to a sure thing.
I agree 100%. Why not make it a 2 tier approach?
You have the draft. But then anyone unsigned is an amateur free agent. Absolutely insane that Rocker can’t negotiate with other teams.
Why did the Mets not have access to Rocker’s medical data prior to making this decision? Not trying to be snarky, was this a decision made by Rocker/Boras? I always thought teams had access to this type of data prior to the draft.
Thanks in advance for any insight.
He opted not to participate in the pre-draft MRI program, which meant that the Mets did not have to tender him an offer at all to still get the comp pick next year.
This is right. The Top 50 pitchers in the draft rated by…somebody…all are invited to a pre-draft medical evaluation. It is voluntary, but it does seem like it is in the player’s best interest to do it. It’s possible that some team will find something they don’t like and shy away but do you really want to wind up like Kumar Rocker or Brady Aiken? To me that catastrophic scenario should probably be avoided at all costs.
Except if the MRI shows something devastating but potentially rehabable (like Tanaka was), it kills your draft stock. Now, he can pitch half-heartedly for a year and hope to get picked in the first round again. If he needs surgery, I doubt he would.
Seems like a very tough position. Given the way this went down with the Mets, I can’t imagine any team will use a high draft pick on him unless they see some detailed medical records first.
Jays drafted Hoglund 19th and signed him close to that slot, $3.2 million ,, about $111K below slot. Yeah, he dropped about 10-12 picks from where he would have gone if healthy. But it did not “kill” his draft stock..
It’s not in the player’s best interest to do it. The teams find something they don’t like and use that to argue signing bonuses down.
You’re assuming that teams will use this information in good faith. The view from agents is that teams overwhelmingly don’t.
Well this situation shows Rocker’s decision backfired on him.
Would it have been in his best interest to get the MRI’s done ahead of time for the league to see? We don’t know. But we do know it was NOT a good choice to not get the MRI’s done and roll the dice, and now he will be forced to miss an entire year.
And the question is, why did he decline?
Yeah declining to participate is a strange call. I totally understand the privacy aspect of it, but the reality is that whatever club drafts you will see it anyway. And there can only be *bad* surprises here since the default is you expect your draft pick to be healthy.
Boras has his own in-house medical staff. In the past, they’ve alerted teams when there are medical problems but they either didn’t think there was a problem or decided not to this time.
I think the argument is that because there is so much disagreement about medical stuff (one team often will fail a free agent on medicals while another team passes them without any concerns) there’s no reason to just throw something out there that teams can endlessly scrutinize and overthink. That’s what I think the argument is.
I also think that this has proven the serious, serious downsides of that approach. The teams that would have been okay with the post-draft medical probably would have picked him anyway, and the teams that wouldn’t be wouldn’t take him and lock him into a situation where he has to go back to school.
That scenario is pretty rare. And the Mets literally didn’t even offer him a deal. Which tends to suggest that the issue is far more serious than the “difference of opinion” variety.
The rangers still offered RA dickey a deal when his medical discovered he didnt even have a UCL lol.
If you don’t have a UCL, you can’t blow your UCL. (taps head)
To be fair I doubt his ucl was even necessary for his style of pitching
Opting in can only hurt him. Players (and teams even) are best advantaged to keep information asymmetrical. Even if Rocker thinks he is fully healthy, releasing his medicals can only really hurt him because it allows teams to nitpick something and decide he is worth just a little less perhaps.
Most of the top draft prospects (guys expected to go early on day one) don’t opt in because it only gives them a competitive disadvantage. They are going to go early – Rocker did – so why give teams some potential ammo to change that?
That’s just a dumb statement. He is way worse off now that he has to play semi pro ball for a year and hope he doesn’t get hurt
almost all high draft picks decline. understandably. why willingly give teams a reason (and they will find a reason) to refuse to offer you full slot money? it seems to me that if and when teams “find” a medical issue, they’ve really got the player over a barrel as they hold their exclusive rights. sure, rocker called their bluff and told the mets to get bent, but i’d wager lots of players would end up signing for a fraction of slot value instead. even in this case, i’m sure there is a magic number that will stop the mets from worrying about the issue.
Teams wouldn’t risk a pick on someone with a questionable medical evaluation in order to low ball him. That’s ridiculous.
Also, Rocker didn’t call the Mets bluff. They never offered him a contract at any price.
They had to offer him a contract of some kind, I think, in order to get the pick next year. I think it’s 30% of slot?
No. See Anon21’s post below.
They did not have to offer anything since he did not get a physical before the draft. That rule only applies to those who were a part of the pre-draft physical process.
Rocker didn’t “call the Mets bluff and tell them to get bent”. They didn’t lowball him, they didn’t even offer him a contract at all. One has to assume the medical report is ugly, otherwise there would have at least been an attempt to negotiate with their top draft pick
I read somewhere that providing a pre-draft MRI is voluntary, but that if you decline, then the team is not required to extend an offer at all in order to get compensation in next year’s draft–normally they have to offer you some specific fraction of the slot value to get compensation. Not sure if that applies to any other medical information other than MRIs.
I think the best outcome for players is to bring back uncapped drafts and do away with draft slots. A national signing day would be awesome for sure, but if there are hard caps/draft pools, then wouldn’t basically every team work out pre-draft deals to ensure they use all their money? So in theory, Kumar Rocker would also go back to Vanderbilt because teams wouldn’t have much money left to offer him. Hell, 10 teams entire draft classes wouldn’t be able to afford just Kumar Rocker based on draft pools.
Yes, drafts overall stink, but if the players had to pick between a national signing day with a cap or uncapped drafts, they should go with the latter. We all know an uncapped signing day will never happen. All this is likely a moot point anyways, we know the MLBPA won’t do right by their incoming colleagues and will probably screw them over even more in the upcoming CBA. All they have left to sell out amateurs is an international draft, which I’m sure they’ll give away for a half eaten bag of chips.
In the hypothetical signing day scenario, Rocker wouldn’t have been stuck negotiating with only the Mets until now. He would have been negotiating with multiple teams from the very beginning and he probably would have worked out a deal for signing day like everyone else.
I think you *would* need bonus pools under that system for the sake of competitive balance. I’ve seen people saying abolishing the draft wouldn’t hurt poorer teams “because look at the IFA market,” but in pointing to National Signing Day, you’ve highlighted a counterexample. NCAA football is giving us increasing competitive imbalance because the top programs *can* sign far more talent than almost any other program, and therefore *do*. With reasonable (i.e., higher) pool amounts, though, I agree your suggestion would be fairer.
As it is, I wonder if MLB could now declare that any team with international pool money could use that to sign Rocker . . .
Made my comment an hour ago, and you made it better…pools are needed for balance to some degree.
Considering that we’re going to go the opposite direction and get an international draft at some point, I’m pretty confident that this will never, ever, ever happen. The MLBPA would have to give up something to get this and it would not be good.
If we’re talking about keeping the bonus pool anyway, there’s absolutely no reason why this would make any difference economically for the players or owners. But management loves having control and is willing to pay money to keep it (hence why you see raises around the time of union drives). So the players would have to give up something economically to get something non-economic, which seems like a lousy way for them to operate.
I know this stinks for Rocker but in terms of priorities this has to be no higher than 5th on anyone’s wish list. Off the top of my head I’m thinking that minor league salaries / living conditions and problems with the timing and process of arbitration are easily #1 and #2 in some order. Minimum salaries is probably #3, and length of service time / service time manipulation is probably #4
If you’re going to do something good for once and take a stand for guys who aren’t in the majors yet, negotiating something really basic like a minimum $20K year salary for minor leaguers would probably be way more important for younger players.
I agree. Shoot, I think the MLBPA would happily sacrifice Rocker on the altar of the universal DH if that was an option.
The discussion up above reminded me that Kansas City, as a team that actually treats their minor leaguers less terribly, has a ton of loyalty among agents and might do well in a capped bonus pool system. So maybe if this forces teams to provide decent lodging, nutritious meals, and other things to minor leaguers, then it would be worth fighting for anyway. Maybe. They’re still unlikely to do it, though.
This was my thought. I think it is much more likely that the players agree to an international draft in order to get something they want than that they give ground on something like service time manipulation or the Qualifying Offer in order to get rid of the draft.
As pointed out in the article, MLBPA has a very long history of not caring very much about what happens to future members of MLBPA.
If the Mets don’t want to offer Rocker a contract then he shouldn’t be bound to them. There is no way that can be considered fair.
Also there was no player’s union when the draft began. It is fair to point out they’ve negotiated about it since and multiple times have agreed to deals that put non-members at an economic disadvantage to gain slight advantages for their members.
“It is fair to point out they’ve negotiated about it since and multiple times have agreed to deals that put non-members at an economic disadvantage to gain slight advantages for their members.”
Which is what every union does.
Agreed, but the point isn’t fairness. The point is to punish draftees who don’t sign, in this case a pitcher who didn’t agree to undergo the “voluntary” pre-draft medical exam.
Btw, to keep the draft in its current form, you couldn’t just have any unsigned player become in effect a free agent. That just incentivizes draftees to refuse to sign if they’d rather go elsewhere. Say we want him to be able to sign somewhere—writing up the rules governing what Rocker can now do and not do is an interesting exercise.
I agree with your vision of the draft, but the owners/management would die on a hill before every agreeing to it – I think we are stuck with some form of draft in all sports leagues for a while.
What I think makes sense though for guys like Kumar Rocker and Jud Fabian, let them become FAs once the teams that drafted them chooses not sign them (for whatever reason that is). Let any team sign that player at up to 125% of the dollar amount associated with their draft slot, but it also costs that team that signs them a draft pick from the next year. Let’s say the White Sox decide to sign Kumar Rocker right now – then the Mets get the first round pick of the White Sox next year.
It is still not perfect, but it gives players the chance to start their professional careers instead of being in limbo for a year.
The White Sox wouldn’t do that, though, unless they saw the medicals ahead of time. Which leaves us in the same exact place. They MIGHT do it if it didn’t involve giving up a pick.
That’s what seems to be getting overlooked here. If Rocker’s medicals were bad enough to where the Mets didn’t even make him an offer, I highly doubt there would be a line of teams willing to offer him anything into the neighborhood of $4m
Using the White Sox was a hypothetical team.
I think something like this is probably more attainable than abolishing the draft, which would be a very tough lift in negotiations. The mechanics of it are hard, but it might be worth doing anyway. The ideal situation is that if the team broke a pre-draft agreement the player gets declared a free agent and can go anywhere they want and/or the team doesn’t get a pick the next year, but determining what counts as a pre-draft agreement is going to be hard. It makes me think that the right way to use the “signing day” idea is as a series of agreements that if you get picked at X slot the team agrees to pay you Y money or something like that.
It’s true, owners would never agree to get rid of the draft, which is just one more reason all major sports teams should be seized, municipalized, and operated as nonprofits, with any surplus revenues going to the local community.
Or how about the player just be willing to provide MRI/medical data before the draft? Seems to me that is the root problem in this case.
Interesting idea. Put another way, you could trade future draft picks, but only for current year draftees and their accompanying slots.
There is always some rumbling about trading picks so this could be attainable.
Rocker gets screwed, the Mets get screwed, and Vanderbilt’s coach who rode him every week while he was injured gets a pass. Gotta love college athletics.
Did the Mets really get screwed? I’m asking as a Mets fan and rumored apologist. They get the #11 pick next year, so they aren’t necessarily losing a ton. They lose the overslot money that they planned for Rocker, and they drafted weaker players that they could pay underslot- but they could have planned for this contingency by drafting a fallback plan in the later rounds, so it’s kind of their fault. It’s certainly not nearly as bad for them as for Rocker.
The Mets lost about $1.2-$1.5M in bonus pool money that they could have used for others but yeah, that’s on them. If you do deals with players contingent on medical evals, have a backup plan in case that falls through. Most teams do this. Davis Diaz and Roc Riggio would have been available in Round 11, as was Mason Albright (who signed for $1.25M in Round 12). Drake Varnado and Eric Hammond were available in Round 16 or earlier. Gage Jump and Will Taylor probably wanted more than that, and the Mets might not have liked all those guys, but they had plenty of opportunity to see if they could buy someone off their commitment.
It’s never a win if you fail to sign your first pick.
Unless your first pick was Brady Aiken and you turn that into Alex Bregman. That’s a win. The Pirates didn’t sign Appel and used the pick next year on Austin Meadows. Another win if we forget the Archer trade
Ummm, when capital hires labor, it does so intending to exploit it.
The FA market as it exists shows what would happen if teams could sign amateur players for whatever they wanted to pay them: A labor market for amateur players segmented by geography and financial power. In such a system a few teams could contract with the best amateurs. It would tighten the correlation that exists between payroll amounts and winning percentage.
For fans of low revenue teams, fandom has become an exercise in masochism, a way to appreciate the agony of defeat. Glawoski’s preferred remedy would all but eliminate the bits of hope available to those fans. His feasible solution, bonus pools without a draft, is better per se.
Even with no rules, wouldn’t it still be too late for Rocker to sign? Teams had already spent most of their draft pools by the time he took his MRI. I guess he could have signed for a couple hundred thousand, but why would he do that, since he likely wasn’t going to pitch more innings in 2021 anyways.
If there were no rules, Rocker wouldn’t have been stuck negotiating exclusively with the Mets until now. He would have negotiated with other teams all year and likely struck a deal for draft/signing day like everyone else.
I don’t actually think Signing Day in Football is that much fun, unless you’re a fan of an elite program. The top players are generally only choosing among the top programs. If a player has committed to a lesser school (lesser schools including power conference teams that aren’t football powerhouses), the school and its fans have to sweat it out to see if the recruit has been poached by Alabama or Ohio State or similar. I’m all for players getting NIL $, but it’s not going to make a player less likely to choose Alabama over another school. And there’s no cap other than the number of scholarships available.
That said, what you’re proposing could work if teams are working with a cap. Players deserve the freedom to choose the organizations they want to play for. It would be interesting to see how that would play out, given the same pool of players and bonus money- would the players at the top get even more because of bidding wars- at the expense of the players below them in the rankings?
I predict he signs with the Mets
Not the best prediction.
I agree that the draft could use some work but I don’t really care for your suggestion either. Like someone else said, it’s really only a few elite schools competing for the top players on a national signing day anyways. You have to do something to give the small market teams or teams in less favorable cities a chance. Which the draft does perfectly. The international system if rife with shadiness and controversy, and I’m afraid that would also happen domestically. Which is why they’re trying to give it more structure through a draft.
And tanking is not really a thing in baseball anyways, simply because top draft picks aren’t as much of a slam dunk as in basketball or football. So I’m not sure why you brought that up.
Stinks for Rocker and stinks for the Mets but his medicals must have looked really bad. Maybe the medical screening process needs adjusting instead of the entire draft.
There would be a cap to how much each team could spend. In theory, the Dodgers could sign Marcelo Mayer, but they’d blow their entire bonus. So is another going top prospect going to sign with the Dodgers for 100k or sign with a small market team for 3M?
If the prospect is smart and thinking long-term, they will:
1) Go to the team(s) with the best finances (large market teams)
2) Go to winning teams (large market teams)
3) Go to teams that can afford more expenses in player development, player facilities, etc (large market teams)
If the prospect is smart, they’ll sacrifice 2.9M? Or half a million dollars? All things being equal, you’re right. But to be fair, small market teams like the Rays, Marlins, Brewers, A’s, etc, develop very well and better than most large market teams.
1) What does that matter? They all sign a uniform player contract and are subject to the same minor league salaries and arbitration process until free agency. The only difference this could possibly make is if you wanted to do an early career extension, but I don’t see the Yankees and Dodgers passing those out all over the place. And every team in baseball can afford an early career extension if they want to. See Tatis, Fernando.
2) I don’t think this is as much of a factor as money and opportunity. At least for amateurs trying to earn their first big deals.
3) Every team can afford nice facilities.
I disagree with point #1. Can every team afford to give early career extensions. As the system is set up right now, the answer is mostly yes (not sure if the Rays can afford a Tatis contract but perhaps we’ll find out with Wander). However, if the MLB moved to a signing day style format, what’s to stop the large market teams from consistently giving out early career extensions to their top picks? Sure, you can sign with the A’s for $2.5M and maybe 5 years from now if you’re killing it, perhaps they’ll offer you an extension or you can sign with the Yankees for $2M and there’s a good chance they’re going to offer you a $25M contract after your first year in the minors. Who you gonna pick?
San Diego had a decent size market and has plenty of money. You can’t even find certain SD hats they sell out so fast. But yes, every team can and does have the money.
Depending on the quality of the prospect, the smart prioritization is some ordering of:
1) Signing Bonus – Few minor leaguers make the majors. Usually the signing bonus is it for cashing in on your skills.
2) Path to playing time – You make your money playing in the MLB (plus that’s why you’re here, right?) Small markets that can’t afford quality free agents would actually have a edge here, since they need to fill their rosters and can get you through your arbitration years faster.
3) Coaching Quality – Again, odds are against even good prospects making an MLB career of it, so an organization that’s shown the ability to develop quality players has a great recruiting angle
4) The rest – Cities you’d want to live in, good tax treatment of the signing bonus if it’s big enough, organizations that treat their minor leaguers well, etc. Nice on the balance, but pale in comparison to 1-3: actually making some money and making a career of the sport
So make it all a free agency. So, you know, all the players that want to play in Milwaukee can do so.
Oh wait, no one wants to live in Milwaukee? Well, Milwaukee can just pay them more money!
Oh wait, Milwaukee doesn’t have the revenue streams that twenty other teams do? Well, we are doing this for the little guy, right?
Every team in baseball can afford larger payrolls and can afford to give out big contracts. Maybe not like the Dodgers or Yankees, but they can. Even the Rays. These teams just cry poor to suppress salaries. A free market would be the best thing for baseball, but it’ll never happen so stop whining.
The system proposed by the author is very much a “rich get richer” system, which is what already exists in college football. It exists in the MLB too but this would just make it worse.
The author proposed hard caps. How is that a rich get richer system? Teams in the back 10 slots of the draft can’t even pay for a top 10 pick. The Yankees had the 20th pick and their entire draft cost ~7M. Top 5 picks in the draft get more than that alone.
Because if you are a top prospect coming out of college or HS, you have a choice to make:
Do I sign for absolute top dollar bonus right now and go to Milwaukee or Cincinnati?
Do I sign for less and bet on myself being good enough to warrant an extension for the Dodgers or Red Sox?
It’s not that teams like the Royals or Rays would get zero good players. But it’s unrealistic to assume that what happens in Free Agency wouldn’t just happen in amateur ranks. Free agents actively want to go to teams with long established winning track records in places that are more desirable to live. People will take a discount (read: small market teams typically have to overpay) to play in LA or NY type of places. All things equal, for a 20 year old, LA sounds better than Detroit.
This isn’t that large markets will sign every even remotely decent kid that would have been drafted. It’s that if you were ranking the 10 best “draft day” players, all 10 would likely end up in California, New York or Boston most years. It’s not that the top 10 is a magic number or that all good players are rated that high in drafts either. It’s that those are typically the guys most likely to be good.
“Do I sign for absolute top dollar bonus right now and go to Milwaukee or Cincinnati?
Do I sign for less and bet on myself being good enough to warrant an extension for the Dodgers or Red Sox?”
I think this is overly simplistic. As noted in various posts above, (a) there would be existing hard caps in place to prevent everyone from heading to BOS/NYY/LA, (b) all draftees would be subject to the same arbitration process and minor league salaries, (c) NYY and LAD are not rushing to hand out mega contracts to their unproven or little proven prospects, and (d) there could be considerably more opportunity for advancement or playing time in other organizations (witness LAD jettisoning Verdugo last year and now having nowhere to stick Lux), etc.
Again, it’s not everyone. It’s about the players that are considered to have the best talent coming into what would be the draft. Those don’t always hit but large market teams with hundreds of millions in annual TV revenue don’t need yet another way to concentrate talent onto their teams.
Small markets with a bigger pool would be foolish to even invest most of their money into those players anyways. They can’t afford to spend half their money on those types of players. They have to typically go for value in that kind of scenario, exactly as they do in free agency. LA/NY doesn’t have that problem. If they spend large on the top talents in a lot draft, fail miserably, they can (and typically do) compete because they have other avenues of talented player acquisition.
Would it really be hard to envision a scenario where the Dodgers get 2 of the top 10 players in a “draft” and call it a day? Would you ever in a million years see a team like the Brewers or Indians doing the same?
I also think it’s overly simplistic on where people want to live. There are plenty of people in mlb born in smaller towns (even though usually in the same states) who may prefer a smaller market or not want to live in NYC or LA. A lot of people prefer the bay area, or the pacific northwest, or a more rural area, or Miami nightlife. It isn’t a one size fits all approach. Some lefties might have an approach catered to the green monster, etc. Also a lot of people grew up rooting for a certain team. I’m not saying it’s a good idea, but I also disagree that everyone is just going to pick a couple different teams.
I find this a strange discussion, conflating two different things for no reason other than the writer dislikes the draft from the start. On the one hand, there is the question of whether there should be a draft. On the other hand there is the question of what should happen if a drafted player is not offered a contract. The former question rests on a variety of competing interests and values. The latter is easy. If a drafted player is not offered a contract he should become free to sign with any team, subject to the same bonus limits and rules about team control that would have been in effect if he had signed with the drafting team.
Well said.
What if the player is offered a contract but doesn’t want to sign? Is there a floor that teams must offer in this case?
You know what else isn’t fair? Some of the players have to be on teams that win, while some are on teams that lose.
Let’s rid the world of that injustice also, and eliminate score keeping.
Welp, here’s the first “slippery slope” guy. You knew they would come!
(Because of course that’s what the author proposed – getting rid of winning and scorekeeping altogether.)
That’s how logic works. You point out how illogical the author’s point is, by using a similar example.
A group of people willingly participated in an event in which they were aware of the possible outcomes ahead of time.
It’s not unfair when one of the allowed scenarios occurs. The author should’ve used a better argument than fairness to make his point.
Is it fair that two guys hit a ball at the same exit velo and launch angle, but one gets out and one doesn’t? No. But that’s how the rules work.
Umm, actually, no, that *isn’t* how logic works–at all.
Right?
“I don’t like lemons. They are sour and not tasty to me.”
“WELL WHY DON’T YOU JUST BLOW UP THE SUN IF YOU HATE ALL YELLOW THINGS. THANKS FOR CONDEMNING US ALL TO DEATH DUE TO THE TOTAL ABSENCE OF HEAT AND LIGHT.”
“uh…..ok?”
Also, this: “Is it fair that two guys hit a ball at the same exit velo and launch angle, but one gets out and one doesn’t? No. But that’s how the rules work.”
Sure it’s perfectly fair.
One team’s defense could be better positioned to handle the ball in play.
Or both defenders could reach the ball and one throws it to first for an out while the other throws it into the stands.
Or one ball is hit by a much speedier runner who beats out the throw to first while the other batter is easily retired.
Or a ball that’s caught for an out in one stadium could clear the fence in another.
None of these violate any “rules” or anyone’s sense of fair play.
MLB is a $10+ BILLION (and growing) industry, and imo the labor issues can be solved in a couple ways, because talent is talent – whether it be major/minor/amateur; any player who is good enough to help a team win MLB games on a nightly basis will be on the 40 man roster.
1- all teams must share all TV revenue, national AND local – this is what makes the NFL compelling and would give every team the resources to sign any player; there would be financial incentive for players to sign with Milwaukee, KC, Tampa, as amateurs or FA
2- abolish the draft and bonus pools, and simply allot salary/acquisition pools equally to each team. There would be a max AND a minimum: Yankees/Dodgers could not run MLB payroll 5x Tampa, and Tampa would not be allowed to run a $50 mill MLB payroll. Set a minimum MLB payroll, and if a team wants to allot more of its talent $ to amateur acquisition, so be it; developing minor league players into major leaguers is not an absolute – sometimes (often) the “best” amateurs don’t turn into MLB stars.
The MLBPA should be happy because more players will get paid throughout their baseball playing lives (although they will likely have to start including minor leaguers as “apprentice” members), and owners should be happy because all teams on equal footing. This system would be similar to NBA, where players get a contractually set % of league revenue.
Your point #1 is really it. It doesn’t do a lot of good to compare MLB to the NBA or the NFL because MLB’s revenue system is so different from theirs. The real comparison to which MLB is much more akin is European soccer, as I mentioned below.
Making an EXTREME simplification, you either get to choose between the rich teams doing whatever they want and making as much money as they want or competitive balance. It’s very hard to have both. MLB and Euro soccer have chosen the former. NBA to a decently large extent and the NFL to an extreme extent have chosen the latter.
I’m annoyed with the slant of this article. There are many many ways for a player to decide to not be confined by the process of the draft into Major League Baseball.
It’s attempting to solve a problem that doesn’t exist. Rocker’s camp knew he had an arm issue, that’s why they avoided the pre draft MRI.
Everybody involved knew he could be drafted but not signed. It worked exactly like it was supposed to.
If anything Rocker got bad advice to not disclose the arm. Go ahead get it out there, somebody may take a shot in a later round (at least then, they have to pay for the surgery).
But you can’t just expect a team to pay top dollar for a pitcher with an injured arm.
Agree, the language and viewpoint advanced is incredibly biased and this is an opinion piece not analysis. Odd fit for FG.
bootlicker
I agree that this is an opinion piece. I disagree that it’s an odd fit for FG. FG has been moving this direction for about 2 years now.
I don’t mind opinion pieces. I just won’t pay for them, especially when the leadership of the site is very biased. Hence letting my long time membership lapse. I did just buy a mug, and I clearly read, but this site is no longer worth paying for. And that’s heartbreaking.
What was the author’s bias as you see it?
It’s not the authors bias. I should clarify that I enjoyed the article, which I read as an opinion piece. I wasn’t complaining about the article or the author. No issue with the author. The bias as I see it is from leadership – Meg down. And that I will not get into here, other than to say they are appealing to a broader audience now, and maybe that’s on purpose. And that would be fine, it’s their site, they have to find a way to keep the lights on, not me.. It just isn’t the same site and never will be between the new leadership and social climate we live in. What I was trying to say, but came out really $hitty, was if we adjust our expectations of this site, we’ll be happier with the content they now offer.
like what?!? playing in japan?? going to college only to be drafted later??
Yeah. Or move to DR to go the international route, or take the MRI so the team to negotiate or disclose the medical up front, or wait a year to be redrafted, or find a different league overseas, or go back to college, or stop playing. This was more of a money play on the players part than an example of the system’s fault. Not a single thing against the player, but this article may as well have been a complaint that he wasnt whisked right onto the Mets MLB roster to start the first game after the draft.
Is your point that every other option is worse than the MLB draft? Maybe the draft isn’t the problem if even though it isn’t exactly what you want it is still better than any other option?
Unsure what the slant is. With that said, it would be interesting if more young players did something different. Go the Bryce Harper route and graduate a couple years early, get foreign citizenship, etc. I realize Harper still had to be drafted, but the ability to get to free agency a year early is very valuable. Of course plenty of kids would want the hs exp, but I’m also pretty sure that plenty of the 13-14yos would also be just as happy to graduate hs earlier and make more money, earlier. Like it isn’t realistic for most the players financially or just at all really, but it would be fun to see more people explore creative options.
Every professional sport league has a draft, and that will never change. You want MLB to have a “signing day” like the NCAA? How’s that working for competitive balance in college football? All the people complaining about how Rocker was abused by the Mets is missing the point that every other professional sport has some kind of pre-draft combine with medical exams and all that information is passed on to the teams. Rocker deciding not to submit his data pre-draft is proof his people knew the MRI would show something that teams wouldn’t like. If he had submitted the MRI, he probably wouldn’t have been picked 10th, but some team probably would have taken him later in the 1st round. He lost that opportunity.
One ironic part of this is when the Astros drafted Aiken, the rule was different and they had to offer a minimum, which he turned down (then promptly blew out his arm and had to have TJ the very first time he pitched for IMG after that). He was not represented by Boras, but I remember Boras commenting smugly at the time that if Aiken had been his client, that wouldn’t have happened.
Yeah it sucks to assign any blame to the victim, but in this case the Rocker situation was clearly one that was going to blow up. If there’s any real villain here it’s his college coach, who kept pitching him even when he was injured. Theoretically these are the people who are supposed to be looking after the future of their 20-year-old players, who all think they’re immortal. That did not happen here.
Exactly.
This isn’t the scenario we have, or that I’m suggesting, but teams would line up around the block to pay Rocker 6m to get Tj. He said they expect 5-6x ROI, so they expect his slot value to be 30mish approximately. So that means they didn’t think he was worth what pick 11 would be worth next year even minus the 1 or 1.5m they lost or whatever. That is the part that rubs me wrong. Not that necessarily the Mets did something wrong given the scenario (even tho they probably did) but that the scenario was allowed in the first place. If he was a free agent how much could he have gotten even with the bad medical in hand?
Amen. Kevin Goldstein mentioned in an article yesterday that players perform better when they’re happier; surely being drafted by a city team as a country guy (or vice versa) isn’t ideal for player or team. I wonder, too, whether inept franchises that no one would want to sign with (hello, Rockies!) might get their act together faster.
Funny thing I thought about, in terms of ballpark and city Denver would be my favorite place to play. In terms of organization? Last.
This is such a great article. Somehow it has just gone right over my head that the draft is… a draft. I never made the etymologic connection, that players are forced into a body that sends them wherever, with no choice for the player.
Kinda absurd that they didn’t just think of a different thing to call it for optics sake.
Players have plenty of choice. Go overseas. Not play baseball. They could even choose to not sign with the team that drafted them and try again next year.
yeah while at the most crucial development years of the careers that they’ve entirely devoted themselves to, sure. and sure, move 10 time zones away to play in a league you’ve never watched, in a cultural landscape that you’re completely unfamiliar with and not well suited to adapt to cause you’ve devoted most of your educational and cultural time to playing a sport.
More than anything, these kids grow up with a singular dream: play in the mlb. Its not european soccer, there aren’t 5 superleagues that would satisfy their dream. That exclusivity is exploitative.
If they can’t handle moving, they shouldn’t be playing a professional sport.
These are grown men who routinely curse each other out, take swings at each other, and occasionally throw things at each other.
And you’re worried about having to move hurting their feelings?
So, you would be OK with your employer dictating that you move to Fargo/Des Moines/Baltimore/Fairbanks/(pick whatever destination is suitably horrible) of their choice?
Yes? Because I can find a different employer or completely different type of job.
MLB is not, in any way, a free market for labor. They have a monopoly. As a matter of fact, their deal is so different that it’s in no way comparable to anything non-sports related, just like every other sport, as far as labor goes. It’s more akin to joining the military in most ways than the job market as a whole.
When you’re a kid good enough to get drafted into MLB, you have to know that there’s a high probability that you won’t get to live where you want to. It’s part of being a Major League Baseball professional. If that’s not a system you’re comfortable with as a HS player or College Junior, no one is forcing you to enter the draft.
If I got paid millions of dollars just to play a game, sure. No problem.
“If I got paid millions of dollars just to play a game, sure. No problem.”
The only ones seeing “millions of dollars” are the cream of the draft crop. The guys getting drafted in the 12th, 13th rounds are headed to Poughkeepsie to make like $16,000 a year. Still want to get told where you can live?
I’m glad the owners have Daniel Websters like you to defend their interests.
The suggestion of this article isn’t even to give them more money. It’s to give them freedom to choose where to play.
But that has obvious implications on competitive balance. It’s not just in ownerships interest to have a draft, or some other way to equalize out talent across the league. It’s in everyone’s best interest for the longevity of the game. Long term the league is better off (players and owners alike).
I’m very in favor of very drastic changes to baseball as a whole to equalize spending (cap and floor) to give a higher percentage to players (say 50% of revenue) but that’s not this proposal. This proposal is just choice of location of employment. Which is fine as a proposal, as long as you open up major markets to take more teams because that’s where people (not just baseball players) want to go to. That’s been the trend. NYC metro has 3 times the population of Wisconsin concentrated in a relatively dense area. There’s lots of reasons for that, but it’s obviously a desirable place to live by comparison. It stands to reason that unless there is a major difference in money for signing, players will go to the more desirable place to live. That’s not an advantage that large market spectator sports teams need whatsoever.
Playing “in a cultural landscape that you’re completely unfamiliar with and not well suited to adapt to cause you’ve devoted most of your educational and cultural time to playing a sport” is exactly what Latin American and Caribbean players do all the time. Plus many are actual teenagers when they sign, not adults, and most aren’t given the six-to-seven figure signing bonuses handed out to draftees from the US.
The draft is exploitative, but if we’re talking about exploitation it probably isn’t baseball’s biggest problem.
I did think about this, and you’re right. With that said, the dream remains the same for latin players: they want to play in the MLB. Also, there are massive latin american communities in many of the cities that players end up in. Also they are guaranteed to have very many teammates in similar situations, its not one for one here, going to japan is way different. its the most homogenous country in the world.
Yep. Wanted to say that. Also for the people that suggest Asia a lot of these players are young arms who are going to be using a different baseball vs entirely different types of hitters. And the bats will be going to a league where there is all kinds of pitches that young players generally struggle with. While it would be interesting to see, and could work in the players favor, I’d say that overwhelmingly the vast majority of the time it wouldn’t. They’d be a year older having just had a bad season overseas. Wouldn’t be a good look. They’d be better off not playing against anyone and just doing showcases.
I know this wasn’t your main point, but how many teams in those superleagues actually pay top dollar for talent? It isn’t really that different in terms of numbers. Also, turning professional at 12 might not be such a great thing for those who are not otherworldly talents. European soccer has plenty of problems. I’m not sure that is the best comparison.
where do people get off just defending owners and the structures we have in place? what stake do you have in it? like what?
Nobody needs to have a stake in anything. Almost no professions pay labor as high a fraction of revenue as do professional sports. That’s fine. The competition is higher and society is willing to pay top dollar to watch the best athletes in the world. Most people are at-will employees as well. Can be fired tomorrow for poor performance , or not even poor performance, just the company hasn’t been doing well. There are few professions where you can sign a guaranteed contract for years, perform at a tiny fraction of what was expected, and still get 100% of your contract (obviously football does not have the same guaranteed system). I would be fine if minor leaguers were treated better and paid more and would be fine if we did away with the draft and don’t complain at all when players get paid. But professional athletes are hardly exploited compared to 99% of the population.
The European soccer leagues have tried the pure capitalism model and its ilk for years, and the result is that there is no competitive balance whatsoever. There are ~10-15 elite squads across the entire continent out of hundreds of teams. With extremely slight variance, those 10-15 teams are the only ones who have any chance of winning their leagues. Every year. Forever.
The July 2 international signing period shows (kind of) the best way to deal with this style of player disbursement: open market, but with a cap. Players get lots of money, but it’s spread out enough that the players can’t all just sign with the big-market teams. Even the lowly Royals and Rays get guys. (Of course, this applied to the stateside draft would have to require way-tighter rules about tampering so that it doesn’t turn into a corrupt system like the int’l signing period.)
Re: Rocker-type situations, the solution is easy – if a player is not offered a contract by the team that drafts him, he becomes a free agent.
On the contrary the European system works great.
The top 6 in England is amazingly variable. The only guaranteed thing is that 4 of the 6 will be in there next year. So, I think it works pretty well. As for the champions league, no single team keeps winning the thing, even though the usual suspects tend to show up. That may change though as Barcelona and Real have to deal with their finances getting blown up.
The top 6 in England is amazingly variable?
(citation needed)
jdr is absolutely correct when he states: “With extremely slight variance, those 10-15 teams are the only ones who have any chance of winning their leagues. Every year. Forever.”
Sure. Where’s Arsenal now? Newcastle? Leeds?
Where was Leicester a decade ago? Spurs? Manchester City weren’t even really a thing until a country bought them, and Chelsea only slightly further ago than that. Liverpool nearly went BANKRUPT 4 years ago.
The top six is incredibly variable, even if you only started watching a couple of years ago (let alone if you think soccer got invented in 1991). Teams get into it over the course of years, but the membership changes quite a bit. One’s probability of entering the top six changes as a function of a structural factors, but being a london club with a rich owner is no guarantee of entering (see Fulham and Watford) or sticking around (see Arsenal).
As for the 10-15 teams that can win the UCL, that’s not a big enough set? Honestly, to be brutally honest the finances of the current game look like the victors will be overwhelmingly from the EPL for the near future. It’s actually exciting, because La Liga and Serie A are more or less falling apart, so we might see some new faces from within and outside those leagues.
“As for the 10-15 teams that can win the UCL, that’s not a big enough set?”
Pulling from a dozen different European leagues that feature, what, 180, 200 teams? So maybe an average of one team per league can realistically win the UCL, or about 5% of the top-level teams across Europe? I’ll go with no.
(Not saying it’s terrible/needs to be torn down, but it’s in no way a good representation of a fair, model competition.)
I’d just like Atalanta to win it
How many professional baseball teams are there in the US and Canada? Many hundreds.
How many can win the World Series? 30.
It’s not altogether all that different.
I’m not sure which Premier League you’re watching, but it’s not the one I’ve seen. Every year the top 3 are teams from London, Manchester, or Liverpool. Every year. Like (almost 100%) literally every year. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_English_football_champions
Everton hasn’t finished in the top 3 in the premier league era, I don’t think, and Tranmere haven’t ever been in the Premier league….
anyway, Liverpool last finished 8th 6 years ago and then, I THINK, 6th the year after that. They nearly went under. Certainly, since they hired Klopp, they’ve done quite well. The thing is it’s a big 6, not a big 3, and Arsenal lost their place. Manchester City are quite good, yes, but historically might as well not exist. United have been in the UCL spots but haven’t really contended for the title. It’s taken historically awesome years from City and Liverpool to win the title, and it’s unlikely to continue…
Chelsea would be the “london club.” it certainly wouldn’t be Arsenal or Spurs. they’re very good, but a divorce settlement away from Vialli 2.0.
You’re talking about individual teams, and only the past 5 years or so. Even then, Leicester’s weird year falls in that range (where Chelsea finished 10th, on 50 points?). If United won it all, all the time, you might have a point about “the top 3,” but it conceals the variability within the top teams.
I do like the solution, he becomes a free agent. Teams would be lining up to pay for any future surgeries. For real. Why wouldn’t they?
Drafts are absolutely a painful necessity. You simply cannot run a sports enterprise without one, not without accepting that you’d not actually be running a sport but instead some kind of rigged reality show. It reminds me of the old saying that “Democracy is the worst possible political system … except all the others.” Drafts are the worst way to distribute talent, except all the others.
The argument presented above is a classic logical error. The author gets to the obvious, overwhelming, and only argument for drafts (competitive balance) and then dismisses it by saying that it doesn’t always work and has some side affects that are unpleasant. That’s both true and irrelevant. The question is whether the competitive balance situation would be untenable and destroy the sport, both AS a sport and as a business enterprise, in the absence of a system to distribute new talent roughly fairly. Not whether it could be done better. That’s a given. Of course it could. But the American ticket-buying and TV-watching public will never put up with a European soccer style situation where the same 2 or 3 or occasionally 4 teams compete for a championship every year, without end.
Libertarian solutions to complex social and systems problems are attractive, superficially. It’s nice to think of just clearing away the debris, cutting through the knot and solving those problems elegantly and without lots of complication. But unfortunately, in sports as in life, the problem doesn’t go away by ignoring it. Sports are still complex artificial entertainment systems, set up by humans with the goal of attracting people to watch. They depend on people in different cities thinking their teams have as much chance as any other to get the “next Mike Trout.” If not, you’ll see the Milwaukees and the Tampas of the world (just to select two non-glamour cities doing well in MLB right now) fade away. You’ll see the California and Texas teams develop ridiculous farm systems that they turn into perennial powerhouses (because that’s where so many drafted kids grow up), and honestly, who the hell’s gonna want to sign so they can play way up north in Minneapolis or Toronto or Detroit?
If you want to kill the draft, then I’d suggest you also outlaw trading of prospects. That would at least give kids something to think about if their dream team has 5 guys as good as them at their position. But short of that, the LAST thing MLB wants to do is emulate college football recruiting, which is ugly and corrupt and leads to a basically permanent residence at the top of the rankings for some schools.
This times 1000x… well written response.
Hey FanGraphs, please hire this individual. This person gets it. Excellent comment.
i dont agree with the assertion that brendan is proposing libertarian solutions. under the solutions he puts forward, more people would be paid for their labor fairly (to me, this is the opposite of libertarianism). Right now we have a structure that robs players at their most valuable years. Owners exploit those workers, and if they could have more choice upfront, they would be better off.
the side effects you’re talking about are probably true, but those would be products of teams actually having to pay young players. so yes there would be a very top heavy league, which would need some solution, but the basic idea that players could have more choice with their future shouldn’t prevent that from happening.
I know the comments are going crazy, but I think the antitrust exemption needs to be removed and that there need to be real competitive second and third class leagues. I think a combination of more choice and shorter initial contracts (or first year arb) would be the best way to move forward.
“i dont agree with the assertion that brendan is proposing libertarian solutions. under the solutions he puts forward, more people would be paid for their labor fairly (to me, this is the opposite of libertarianism)”
Sure, it’s easy to argue that something is bad when you personally define it as all the bad things.
we live with libertarianism as the primary ruling ideology of our time, and the vast majority of workers aren’t paid fairly. so yeah its just how it is.
If libertarianism were the primarily ruling ideology of our time, we wouldn’t have an age of consent, let alone the department of Treasury (and the alphabet soup of agencies under its umbrella like the FDIC or Fed Board). Like, yes, people have some pretty restrictive stated preferences about government but their revealed preferences are the TSA, a broad surveillance state, and heavy government investment in the economy. Heck I struggle to think of a libertarian economist on this CEA or the last one, and that’s pretty much a political nominee (where some of the other stuff might not be as easy to change because of structural forces).
I personally think some of those things are good! But it’s definitely not libertarian.
Exactly.
It seems you know absolutely nothing about libertarianism. What we have is extremely far from libertarianism. Like all political philosophies, there are people at the fringe who advance perverted ideas – democrats are not all communists, republicans are not all fascists, and libertarians are not all anarchists. You can obviously hate libertarian ideas, but can you honestly say that in such a society we would have a 6,000 page tax code? How many millions of laws are on the books at all levels of government?
Drafts do not exist to distribute talent. At all. It’s to keep costs down. I think you’re completely missing the point that dollars would be distributed to the lesser teams so your college football idea seems…off.
A massively better-reasoned argument than the article. “The draft system isn’t perfectly fair, so I propose to fix it by destroying the entire sport.”
The article doesn’t even bother to mention the specifics of *why* Rocker didn’t end up with a contract, and Rocker’s agency in it falling through.
“Destroying the entire sport”?! Holy smokes, overreact much?
The number of Americans who understand that Libertarianism is a fundamentally left-wing ideology must fit comfortably on the head of a pin. What you’re talking about is right-libertarianism, a reductive and barely coherent perversion (not even an offshoot) of Libertarianism.
While I respect the writers views, there always is another angle, and that is these are suppose to be 30 “Franchises” not competing businesses, when you walk into a McDonald’s you expect the same level of quality at each McDonalds, yes the players do suffer because let’s face it, it is an monopoly, but there is a collective bargaining agreement and that is where the draft should be addressed.
With that said my main disagreement with the writer is again this is one business, so for example if My grandfather worked for IBM and my dad worked for IBM and I want to work for IBM and I graduate from college and they say the only opening we have at IBM for you is in Kansas City, either I go to Kansas City or I don’t work for IBM, so to me we can debate this all day.
If you want to get rid of the draft making MLB basically separate business I am ok with that, but then make it anything goes, meaning if Tampa Bay is not making enough revenue in Tampa and they want to move to Brooklyn no territorial rights to Mets and Yankees, I mean the big markets want it both ways, they don’t want to share the revenue, like separate businesses, but if McDonalds wants to move next to Burger King in a growing market then so be it.
MLB used to have 3 teams in New York, 2 in Philadelphia, 2 in Boston, 2 in St. Louis and I am sure a 3rd New York team or a 2nd Philadelphia team would generate more revenue than Tampa Bay or Oakland.
As a Mets fan don’t these potential get physicals before you draft them, just seems like buying a car or a house you draft now and look later seems really odd, but then again the things that happen to mets fans only odd is the norm.
Respectfully
eg
“…but there is a collective bargaining agreement and that is where the draft should be addressed.”
You’re actually asserting that current MLB players, who gain by doing so, should have the right to bargain away the rights of people who have no say whatever in the system they’re being forced into? Amazing, what people will come to believe.
Note that Cherington drafted Braylon Bishop in the 14th round in case White didn’t sign. And as a measure of the success of their draft, they got them both.
I feel like this doesn’t get enough attention. The Mets offered an overslot deal to a prospect contingent on a physical, but without setting up a contingency plan. It was a colossal screwup to both do this without having seen the medical report first and without some kind of high-value guy they could nab in Round 11. If they had done even one of those two things, they would be fine today.
It reminds me of a discussion on a thread yesterday, where we tend to rip teams for making the best of a no-win situation instead of the truly indefensible decisions that got them there. This is another example. You have to trust that they really, really didn’t like the medical report to not just honor the agreement and hope it worked out. But why were they even in that situation?
They took a risk hoping to get a top pitcher. Instead they’ll have to wait a year to pick again in the same spot. (And they’ll probably get somebody who makes it to the majors before Rucker)
It’s not like they needed Rucker to pitch in New York for 2022. There was very little down side for the Mets, and plenty of upside (Rucker being healthy)
Rocker, with an O. I would have just let it go, but you spelled it incorrectly literally 3 times.
And yes, you confirmed the whole point of this comment. They took a risk on Rocker, one that they should have hedged against in a late round but didn’t. So now the risk didn’t work out (this is what makes risk risky) but they have no fallback plan to compensate. Is it a big deal in the grand scheme of things? No. But is it a basic good practice in drafting that they failed to follow? Yes.
The downside is they took a whole bunch of other less interesting prospects to save money in order to sign Rocker. Now they have the less interesting prospects but not Rocker. If they want to sign someone to an overslot deal next year, they’ll have to do the same thing–the bonus pool is use it or lose it.
The contingency plan was to not sign the pick and get a compensatory pick next year plus have additional money that was not spent to sign Rocker to address other areas of need.
If you have decided to save $1.3M by not spending your whole bonus pool in the draft that’s penny wise and pound foolish. That’s not a good contingency plan. Because money spent in the draft is capped at such low amounts, it returns a lot more bang for the buck than almost anywhere else you could spend it.
I think this is a fun idea but I see some struggles in implementing it effectively.
In collegiate sports, it seems that a relatively small handful of schools probably has a semi-monopoly on recruiting; in other words, if you’re one of the top 25 prep basketball players in America, you’ll be drawn to (and recruited by) schools like Duke, North Carolina, UCLA, etc. because of their history of success, coaching staff, the strength of their program, etc.
Some of these players may fall through to the next tier of schools if there are injury concerns, or they are blocked at a desired school by a more established player, but schools like South Dakota State are at an inherent disadvantage in this process.
If you ran the MLB draft this way, it seems that every top prospect would talk to the Yankees, Dodgers, etc. first and then once those teams spent their bonus money, the second tier of teams would pick through the leftovers. Given how little (relatively speaking) MLB draftees are paid, it’s hard to see how a bidding war would break out – just imagine the headline: “Yankees win bidding war for Player XX by $100,000”, and given how far away most draftees are from the majors, it’s hard to see teams entice players by promising to promote them to the majors in a certain timeframe.
The thing is, that ability to pick off the top players from high school has not helped Duke or Kentucky win championships (or Ohio State or Texas but that’s a longer, more complicated story). This is in part because their coaches are at best not suited to coach inexperienced 19 year olds (and at worst bad coaches, though that argument is a lot easier to make for Calipari than it is K). This is also in part because the prospect evaluation process is very very noisy. In fact, I’d say baseball is far noisier than either football or basketball. There’s probably a correlation between rich teams and getting better drafts in aggregate in this model, but it’s a ways away from a guarantee.
Stuff like this is never about the guarantee. It’s in fact, the basic premises of a draft at all in any endeavor.
The reason picking first is such a big advantage is because no one else has the opportunity to pick what you believe is the best player.
Are they the best? Who knows. It’s enough that you believe that they are.
Going away from that model directly hurts struggling franchises because it increasingly doesn’t allow them to sign amateur players that they believe are the best. The more others have access to players that normally only you (or a few) would, the less likely you are to get what you believe is better talent.
This process of mutual negotiation you’re describing is de facto the norm for much of the draft— teams pre-negotiate signing bonuses with the significant majority of the players they draft. The exception is usually the Rocker scenario— a highly touted player falls in the draft, for whatever reason, so the team that picks him doesn’t have an agreement in place bc they didn’t think there was a chance they’d get to him.
Destroy the NCAA, throw it’s bureaucrats into the ocean for some kind of treason, end the draft
Sports isn’t the only system to have a draft. It’s prominent in academia too (though more informal in some cases than others)
“the draft is an immoral exercise where big league clubs distribute laborers with minimal consent, designed and structured in a manner to limit expenses. There’s no line of work outside of sports that allocates employees to specific businesses like this: The players who get drafted each year never agreed to this system and never would if they had a choice. The unfairness of it all becomes crystal clear under any kind of scrutiny. It would be ridiculous if Bob’s Plumbing in New York held the exclusive rights to my labor simply because they drafted me out of school and it’s no less absurd that the Mets have that kind of power over Rocker.”
This. MLB needs to behave like MLB and not MLB Total Landscaping.
also, that’s the spirit behind noncompetes! if not the letter.
That was easily the worst argument in the article.
MLB is a handful of athletes considered top talent each year needing to be distributed fairly between 30 teams.
That’s incomparable to some guy working for a plumber. Might as well compare apples and moon rocks.
This seems like a solution in search of a problem. Situations like Rocker’s are extremely rare in the grand scheme of things (and at least, partially his reps’ “fault” too by not going through the pre-draft MRI system), that it’s probably not worth upending the whole system for. The Draft is not ideal, but probably the best option there is.
As for people saying the Draft is unfair because of the “horrors” of potentially living in Milwaukee, come on.
A “signing day” is not really an idea, but rather a TV event.
You mention nothing about how players will be distributed and assigned. What is to stop NY and LA from signing all of the top players only to block them from signing other teams? Are you sure you want a free labor system in baseball.
If you want a free market solution, rather than one based on all teams being dependent on some level of competition, I am assuming you want to do away with the limits on the number of minor league affiliates as well, as that is clearly an unfair limit of trade – as is major league affiliation for minor league teams. So if I am the owner of the Yakima Sun Kings, I should be able to bid on Kumar Rocker against the Mets. (Essentially this was how baseball worked until the 1960s).
Nobody starts off in MLB, so I am assuming that the negotiations would be with the Rookie and short season teams, whose budgets are 1/200th or so of MLB teams and then MLB teams can pick from there. Also you would need to do away with arbitration and free agency limits based on the same principles. These are all against basic free market principles that the rest of us live by in the labor market. And I can obviously quit my team any time I want and go work for someone else, so this should apply as well. If I own the Dodgers and want DeGrom for game 4 of the WS, in a free market system I can make him an offer, this happens in the job market all the time (we call them consultants).
Also, the way college recruiting works, calling that a fair system is ludicrous. I was a high school coach for many years, it is way more unfair and exploitative than the MLB draft!
Back to the drawing board with this one.
Wait when were contracts not part of the free market? I missed the meeting for THAT one.
Did anyone read the article? There would be a cap on a signing day spending. So teams would have money inversely proportional to their standings. So the Tigers, Orioles, etc would have the most money and teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox (in a typical year), etc, would have the least money. For instance, the Pirates had ~14M to spend, while the Yankees had just 7M. Sure, the Yankees could blow their load on one player like Marcelo Mayer or whoever, but they’d have nothing left. While the Pirates could sign Mayer and several other players comfortably.
The point is to give players flexibility in where they want to go. Gawloski did have a flaw in this though, and that is pre-signing day draft deals. So even if Rocker didn’t sign with the Mets, he’d still go back to school because all the other money that teams have would be promised to other players.
Baseball fans and other sports fans would HATE if they had to go work for a company that they had no say in in who knows part of the country, while also paying them below poverty line wages. Why should baseball players not get that right? Their salary AND their signing bonuses are already being suppressed, why not give them this one concession? It’ll never happen, because the owners and players association are committed to selling out amateurs.
Also the draft is boring now. Before, a team could draft a signability guy in the 12th round and give him 1M to sign him away. Now teams all basically have the same strategy. Take a couple signability/overslot guys, draft seniors in rounds 6-10, etc. It’s a bore.
This. It only works if you cap spending, but you can spend it on 20 players or 2. Totally up to the team and you’d likely see them alternate these methods each year.
I think the Signing Day idea is fun, but I don’t see it making any sense from a practical perspective. A bonus pool would be required for competitive balance, but under this system I feel like it would drive down the bonuses given to top players. Given the votality of amateur players, I feel like teams would use this system to sign five $1m players instead of one $5m player
“Distilled to its core though, the draft is an immoral exercise where big league clubs distribute laborers with minimal consent”
Ahhh, this is the data-driven analysis I come to Fangraphs for…
Distilled to its core though, the draft is an immoral exercise where big league clubs distribute laborers with minimal consent, designed and structured in a manner to limit expenses.
The draft is the worst way to distribute new talent to teams, except for all other systems that came before it.
I’ve always thought this was a good way forward as opposed to the draft. It’s more of an acceptable middle ground than the draft at least.
Unless I missed it in the article, would teams who finished with the worst record still have the most money to spend? I think you’d have to do that to some degree. So if the Pirates have 15 million to spend, they can spend a million each on 15 guys, or spend it all on five guys, etc. I like this idea a lot.
I know, I know! How about ‘when Scott Boras tries to hide an injury and gets caught, let’s all blame the evil Capitalists!’ Y’ think that’ll work? Well, on Fangraphs, anyway.
So you do away with the draft and with bonus pools, and, what? The Yankees sign every single prospect every year, and every other team has to wait around until the players are eligible for — ahem — the Rule 5 Draft, in order to get any new talent in their systems? Or, if you do away with the Rule 5 Draft entirely, you just let the Yankees sign every player, put the 26 best on the MLB roster, and stash all the rest at AAA and AA and A affiliates until they’re 40 to keep them from competing against the Yankees?
As many have already pointed out, the draft allows teams not named Yankees and Dodgers to acquire talent too. The original purpose of the draft was to do this since the Yankees ran off 29 of the previous 44 AL pennants, simply because they bought every amateur player they wanted. It seems to have been somewhat successful since the Yankees have only won 11 pennants in the last 56 seasons. As we have seen since the new ownership change in LA, the Dodgers are using those same tactics today. Eliminating the draft is a very short-sighted idea that would lead to a NY-LA World Series almost every year.
My biggest takeaway from this whole situation is that players can opt to not share their medicals with teams before the draft. This seems ridiculous and doesn’t exist in other sports (NFL draftees no particular go through extensive medical checks at the combine). If teams had access to Rocker’s medicals, the Mets don’t draft him at #10 and this whole mess of a situation doesn’t happen
Agree. I guess the headline, “Player Elects to Keep His Medical History a Secret, Pays a Steep Price Once Unvelied” didn’t go over as well as “The Mets Steal a Year of Life From Innocent Kid”
The narrative here too seems to be that if Rocker was now a free agent there would be a line of teams waiting to sign him for comparable money.
Plenty, if not all, teams would be interested in signing him. However, if the MRI was bad enough to where the Mets didn’t even offer him a below-slot deal, I imagine the other teams in baseball would be offering him peanuts compared to the value of the #10 pick.
As many have already pointed out, the draft serves as a way to get some talent to teams not named Yankees and Dodgers. The original purpose of the draft was to keep the Yankees from buying every amateur player they wanted and that strategy lead them to 29 AL pennants in the 44 seasons leading up to the first MLB draft. It seems to be a somewhat successful plan because the Yankees have “only” won 11 of the last 56 pennants. With the way the new Dodgers regime spends on talent, you better believe they’d be using the same tactics with amateur talent that they currently do with free agents. Eliminating the draft in favor of a creating an amateur free agent market is a short-sighted idea that would lead to most every season ending in a NYY-LAD World Series.
As many have already pointed out, the draft serves as a way to get some talent to teams not named Yankees and Dodgers. The original purpose of the draft was to keep the Yankees from buying every amateur player they wanted and that strategy lead them to 29 AL pennants in the 44 seasons leading up to the first MLB draft. It seems to be a somewhat successful plan because the Yankees have “only” won 11 of the last 56 pennants. With the way the new Dodgers regime spends on talent, you better believe they’d be using the same tactics with amateur talent that they currently do with free agents. Eliminating the draft in favor of creating an amateur free agent market is a short-sighted idea that would lead to most every season ending in a NYY-LAD World Series.
“…the Players Association deserves some blame for the state of affairs.”
How about most of the blame? At least it’s a 50-50 shared blame. Of course the owners will construct a system that financially works best for them. I don’t blame them for that. I do blame the MLBPA for so freely negotiating away the rights of their future members when they have no representation.
The MLBPA should expand their union to represent minor league players too. Control all the talent and MLB will have far less negotiating leverage.
Yup. Don’t blame just MLBPA, though. The whole concept of a union is to make life worse for non-members. Star amateur players are looked upon as competition, not brethren.
Every seemingly pro-labor brainstorm that Fangraphs comes up with would just destroy parity in baseball.
Once again good on FGs for enlightening a topic that none but the hardest core of baseball fans would encounter to the slightly mediumest core of baseball fans. Is there a way to scroll through your FGs comments to experience the shame you get from Twitter when you exclusively comment late at night while drunkish? Is that what the membership is?! If so I’ll pay whatever it takes. For reference my username originated from when Starling Marte was on the Pirates, who’s he play for now? The Asheville Tourists?!
” It takes two parties to agree on a CBA, and the big leaguers have shown time and again that they’ll sell out the amateurs in exchange for a few creature comforts”
This will never change. Unions have never made decisions that only benefit future members.
Writers like this one want it both ways. They want no draft, but they also want smaller teams to exist.
You only get one of the other. A totally free market league of ~8 teams, or a 30+ team league with a draft. Yes, the MLB draft is pretty dysfunctional, but to call the concept of a draft inherently unfair shows a real failure to understand the economics of sport.
The draft is flawed. But the suggested fix in this article is too sweeping and will only benefit the rich teams. The simple adjustment is to essentially make Rocker a free agent and allow him to sign with any team interested in him despite his medicals. For a player to become a free agent, the team that drafted him would have to refuse to sign him at slot.
Respectfully, his medicals as you point out, had to be bad enough they wanted no part of it. Rocker’s camp and Boras – again – were not forthright.
Also, you point to college football (and basketball) as a positive example of letting players go where they wish, and yet there’s probably not a more broken, corrupt system in sports?
I read this and feel you are stating the draft is the reason Rocker was not signed. I totally disagree. The Mets have plenty of money to spend. That is not the problem. The question is how to best allocate these funds. If Rocker would have consented to physicals prior to the draft (he didn’t) and people saw whatever the Mets saw they would not draft him in the top 20.
The problem here is that Boros over played his hand and did not consider the best interest of the player. The Mets offered Rocker lifetime security financially and they turned it down. I can’t help but feel that Boros felt the Mets had no choice but to sign Rocker based upon the fact that the Mets need to have a good showing in the draft. Horray for the Mets for sticking to principles.
Based upon the reason for this signing, I can’t help but feel there are structual problems here. It will not surprise me if Rocker blows out his arm next spring, has TJS and then signs for less than what the Mets offered.
The draft was instituted because competitive balance was in the best interest of both the players and the fans. In the 15 years prior to the draft the Yankees were in the World Series 13 times. From 1951- 1956 either the New York Giants (2 appearancs) or the Brooklyn Dodgers (4 appearances) were in the world series. The draft was and is necessary for the competitive balance in baseball.
The idea that each team is alloted a set amount of money does not work for the players nor for competitive balance of baseball. The player at the top of the draft would make 50% more than their current slot. But but that leaves player taken later getting less than $100k. While 50 -75 players love your idea, the next 200+ would hate it.
You also go back to the competitive balance problem. if all team offer the 200th best player in the draft 20k there is a good chance he will choose the Yankees. I am not sure this would happen anymore. But I see no reason to blow up something that work for something that is not a good deal to the majority of the top 300 players.
This system could also weaken Rocker’s position. Why sign Rocker for $4 million when you can sign two healthy players for $2 million?
” If I had my way, I’d do away with the draft and bonus pools entirely, and simply let players seek out the largest contract the market would bear.”
You would have to limit the amount of money that teams could spend here though, or it would be the end of the sport. No one is going to pay money to watch a bunch of awful teams play a handful of really good teams that sign everyone.
It seems like this is a vast overreaction though. There’s a fairly obvious and easy fix to this particular problem: why not make it so if a player has something like this happen, either they are offered below slot $ or not signed at all, that they become a free agent and can sign for whatever the best deal they can get (or they can also choose to just go into the draft next year) It’s very strange that this is not already the way that it is
I heard someone float the idea where an unsigned player is considered an “amateur free agent.” He can sign with any team for up to his slot bonus, and that team forfeits its first round pick the next year.
I am sure anyone can poke holes in that idea, but on the surface it seems preferable to having someone like Rocker lose out on a year of his pro career.
Given the long runway to get to the majors, MLB draftees have a high rate of being shafted. But the market power of high GDP cities (Manhattan has a bigger economy than Missouri) would lead to a competitive imbalance.
How about you have the draft, no pool caps, but if someone doesn’t sign they’re an amateur free agent. So teams who genuinely want to improve will sign their draftees. If they don’t give a compelling offer, the player then has options.
Also, open up the rule 5 style drafts.
Any player 21 and older not on the 40 man is eligible as long as the drafting team put them on the 40 man. Any player 23 and older not on the 26 man roster is eligible as long as the drafting team puts them on the 26 man roster. Have a 40 man min pay of $350k and a ML roster min pay of $700k. Any player anywhere at any level making less than $75k is eligible as long as the drafting team pays them $75k.
Would trades still exist in this model? Or guaranteed contracts?
The MLBPA did not agree to draft pool slots and international spending restrictions in exchange for minor tweaks in the CBA, they did it because of the economic view that there is a relatively set pot of money likely to be spent on player compensation, and the MLBPA would like as much as possible to go to players already in the league, the only parties MLBPA represents. Nobody was at the table representing the Kumar Rockers of the world. But now that Rocker has no offer at all and is prohibited from signing with any other team, you would think he should have a good antitrust claim. Apparently he does not, however, because of the antitrust exemption the Supreme Court recognized in the Curt Flood case — the leagues are in one sense a single entity providing league play and competing for entertainment dollars with other sports, and in another sense a set of independent franchise holders competing with each other.