COVID-19 Roundup: Baseball in July?
This is the latest installment of a series in which the FanGraphs staff rounds up the latest developments regarding the COVID-19 virus’ effect on baseball.
MLB Floats More Plans For Opening the Season
Another day, another new idea for restructuring the 2020 season surfaces. On April 28, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported a new variation on some of the plans we’ve already heard, this one set to take effect no later than July 2:
MLB is considering a three-division, 10-team plan in which teams play only within their division – a concept gaining support among owners and executives. It would abolish the traditional American and National Leagues, and realign the divisions based on geography.
The plan, pending approval of medical experts and providing that COVID-19 testing is available to the public, would eliminate the need for players to be in isolation and allow them to still play at their home ballparks while severely reducing travel.
The report goes on to suggest that some at MLB even envision having “several thousand fans” in attendance when playoff season rolls around — a playoff season that would be extended, given the divisional reorganization.
That this plan is being discussed at all would seem to confirm Jeff Passan’s earlier reporting: Clearly, there is some level of optimism that a 2020 season is going to happen. The caveats here, though — “pending approval of medical experts and providing that COVID-19 testing is still available to the public” — are pretty massive. COVID-19 testing in the United States still isn’t widely available, and its availability is dependent on state and local healthcare providers, resulting in discrepancies in test availability from city to city and state to state. Critical supply chain issues have limited the supply of the most common and most accurate test, the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test, and the recently-approved home version runs at a price of $119; antibody tests have yet to prove consistently accurate; and antigen testing, an appealing alternative to the PCR test due to the fact that it can be mass-produced and deliver quick results, also has accuracy issues — the WHO reports that sensitivity in such tests could vary from 34% to 80%. The US has been testing around 200,000 people per day. That number would likely have to increase exponentially in order to ensure safety in future public gatherings.
Perhaps all of this will change by the end of June. But at the moment, it’s hard to see a plan like this moving ahead.
Chicago Mayor: Baseball Could Happen, But Without Fans
Chicago mayor Lori Lightfoot, acknowledging that cases in the city are still on the rise, told media that she’s been in discussions with MLB, and that she could envision a situation in which baseball is played in Chicago this summer.
"level of cases decline … we're still seeing them rise." She can envision a world where baseball returns to Chicago this summer, but it will "probably" be without fans.
— Kelly Bauer (@BauerJournalism) April 27, 2020
Under the aforementioned new plan, baseball would indeed be played in Chicago this summer, with the Cubs and the White Sox in the same division. But it still remains to be seen whether the conditions for that plan being put into place can be met by July 2.
MLB Players Trust Launches COVID-19 Relief Program
The MLB Players Trust announced Tuesday that they will be launching a COVID-19 Relief Program. The program includes an immediate commitment of $150,000 to Protect the Heroes, in addition to ongoing financial support.
The @MLBPlayersTrust Launches COVID-19 Relief Program and Joins the Campaign to Protect The Heroeshttps://t.co/6PPKMpm2Bn pic.twitter.com/LvWe9W3uRj
— MLBPA Communications (@MLBPA_News) April 28, 2020
MiLB Announces CommUNITY First Initiative
Also on Tuesday, MiLB announced the launch of MiLB CommUNITY First, a partnership with Feeding America.
MiLB has announced the CommUNITY First initiative to raise funds for local food banks. pic.twitter.com/pK9DiCYeXl
— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) April 28, 2020
The initiative encourages fans to donate by visiting MiLB.com/commUNITYFirst through May 31 and selecting their local team; for every $10 donated, the MiLB team chosen will donate a ticket to “a local hero of the pandemic.”
A’s “Still Unsure” About Paying Employees
The A’s, who are the only team yet to commit to paying employees through the end of May, are considering “extensive” layoffs, report Ken Rosenthal and Alex Coffey.
Sources: #Athletics still undecided about paying employees, discussing extensive layoffs. Story with @byalexcoffey. https://t.co/eiVjafP6Yf
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) April 29, 2020
From the report:
The A’s are discussing extensive layoffs, according to major-league sources. Other clubs have engaged in similar conversations, but so far the Tampa Bay Rays are the only one to initiate major cost-cutting measures in response to the shutdown of baseball during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Rays on Tuesday furloughed some staff and cut the pay of most other full-time employees, according to the Tampa Bay Times. Every other club has committed to paying its employees through at least May 31.
The A’s, while they have expanded their staff in recent years and still struggle with attendance, are valued at $1.1 billion.
Pirates Suspend Contributions to Baseball Ops Employees’ 401k Plans
Along similar lines to the note above, Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal report that the Pirates have suspended contributions to the 401k plans of their baseball operations employees, making them the first team known to have done so.
The Pirates have suspended their contributions to their baseball operations employees’ 401K plans, the first known team to do so. With @Ken_Rosenthal: https://t.co/2G4eJfS23G
— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) April 28, 2020
From the report:
The Pirates have suspended their contributions to their employees’ 401(k) plans. For now, that choice preserves employees’ full salaries — save for the team’s higher-ups, who are said to be voluntarily taking pay cuts.
“Last week we announced that we have committed to pay our baseball operations staff through at least May 31, as we continue to evaluate the impact of the coronavirus on the 2020 season,” said Brian Warecki, vice president of communications and broadcasting. “I can also confirm for you that all of the members on our executive leadership team have voluntarily taken salary reductions, and we have temporarily suspended our fellowship and internship programs, as well as employer contributions to our 401(k) plan.”
“These efforts were made to help alleviate the need for furloughs or further salary cuts as this time.”
The Pirates’ move here, as a team with the lowest projected payroll in baseball against an estimated franchise value of $1.26 billion, has some concerned baseball ops employees around the sport, raising worry that other teams will use the crisis to leverage their way into more favorable payroll arrangements.
MLB Clears Path for 2020 Ticket Refunds
Per a report from Gabe Lacques of USA Today, MLB is reversing their ticket policy as of Tuesday and giving teams autonomy over their ticket policy for games during the COVID-19 crisis, clearing the way for fans to receive refunds on tickets purchased for the 2020 season. The Boston Globe reports that the Red Sox, for their part, are expected to announce their policy later today.
Fauci: Sports May Have To Skip This Year
In an interview with the New York Times released today, the country’s top infectious disease expert warned that sports shouldn’t be resumed until complete safety can be guaranteed for players, staff, and fans. From the interview:
I don’t want to make this conversation sound like it’s going to be an easy thing. We may not be able to pull this off. We’re going to have to see: Is it doable? Do we have the capability of doing it safely? Because safety, for the players and for the fans, trumps everything. If you can’t guarantee safety, then unfortunately you’re going to have to bite the bullet and say, “We may have to go without this sport for this season.”
RJ is the dilettante-in-residence at FanGraphs. Previous work can be found at Baseball Prospectus, VICE Sports, and The Hardball Times.
Baseball opening day on July 4 would be so ‘Murican.
It would, but what is baseball opening on July 4th and shutting down on August 16th in a hailstorm of criticism?
August 16th is national joke day, as in, “ha ha, just kidding, no baseball after all!”
August 16th is also national airborne day, as in, “airborne infectious diseases.”
August 16th is also national roller coaster day and national rum day, as in, “starting the season and shutting it down is such an emotional roller-coaster, and I need some rum to get through this.”
I don’t think about things that far ahead.
I don’t know if this a function about Dr. Fauci’s comments or the way the media is reporting on his comments, including in these roundups, (I suspect the latter), but it’s very confusing and inconsistent. Just a couple weeks ago, FG quoted him in this roundup column that basically amounted to: “If these leagues develop a plan to re-open safely, I can definitely see sports happening this summer”. And this new quote basically amounts to: “If these leagues cannot find a way to re-open safely, sports might not be able to come back this summer”.
I don’t know, just some stray thoughts, but it sounds like he’s been saying the same thing for a few weeks now, but the way it’s being reported is quite different and confusing.
“Oh please, please oh great one Fauci can we have baseball this year? We promise to forever sing your praises!”
Why is anyone still listening to this guy after all his predictions were hilariously wrong?
Look at the alternatives.
What an idiotic comment.
What was Fauci wrong about? He said if we didn’t self-distance and quarantine a “hell of a lot” of people would die. For the most part we’ve done what he’s asked; and instead a “hell of a lot” of people dying only a “lot” of people have died.
Dr. Fauci is an American hero. How many lives could have been saved had “the king” listed to him early in January rather than the billionaire businessmen. Thankfully, those in charge finally started paying attention to him. He and Dr. Birks are the experts in this disease, let them make the decisions.
How many lives did Trump save by halting travel from China, while the WHO and media were calling that action racist? There were huge “anti-racism” rallies in NY & SF Chinatown’s to protest, lol. How many people got infected there? You can easily access all of the media articles from January saying the flu is what to be worried about, and that it’s “racist” to be afraid of covid-19.
Aside from NY, hospitals are empty and you’re more at risk driving to your job than you are being out in public and contracting the virus. If you’re scared stay home, stop bothering the adults who aren’t living in fear, lady.
First, we can state Trump saved zero lives. he might have delayed the timing of when deaths started, but not total deaths with the China restrictions. maybe if he had dramatically ramped up testing, implemented social distancing, and started hunt for treatments/vaccines, then he would have saved lives. instead, he wasted all that time. so, no. He doesn’t get ANY credit for that.
as far as hospitals are empty, you are simply ignorant. I’ve got multiple nurses in my family here in Georgia. Multiple hospitals are packed with Covid patients. 61,000 dead and counting………..
Aside from pepper’s comment (which is also correct), there is some misconception that Trump actually banned travel from China. It barred entry from foreign nationals who had been in China in the previous 14 days, excepting the family members of US citizens and residents. 40K people came to the US from China after it was announced.
Besides that, there were already cases reported in 25-30 different counties in the US despite having no real functioning testing apparatus at the time of the announcement, and it looks like the virus on the east coast actually came from Europe.
As far as things are going now, we have the highest April mortality rate since 1929, so that’s…not good. New York was worse (the mortality rate doubled from the previous April) but you don’t get the mortality rate going up by 20-25% over the average without a lot of places getting hit really hard.
“…and providing that COVID-19 testing is available to the public” unfortunately still seems like an insurmountable hurdle at this point. It’s getting better, but we’re still nowhere near where we’d need to be for a baseball season to happen.
I don’t think people understand exactly how many tests we need right now.
The most conservative estimate I’ve seen anywhere says that in order to do much of anything (much less hold a baseball season!), the number of positive tests probably has to come in under 5%, and stay under 5%. Right now we’re at something like 12% nationally. So it is likely we would need 3x the number of tests. And then you need to have excess capacity in case, heaven forbid, it gets worse. So, somewhere above 600K tests (currently 200K tests). Oh, and if the rate doesn’t hit the benchmark for some reason, guess what? More tests needed!
That’s the most conservative estimate I’ve seen anywhere. The more common one I’ve seen has been in the 3-6 million test range, and I’ve seen people say we need as many as 20 million tests a day (which is absolutely not happening, for a number of reasons).
We are nowhere near the ability to ease any restrictions. At all.
I understand and agree that there needs to be more testing available to really pull something like this off, but does MLB really have to wait for that? Like it seems our idea of what needs to happen before a season can really take place includes way more requirements than what MLB thinks. I mean, this latest proposal is talking about a season starting in a couple of months, meaning players would need to be starting some kind of spring training in the next 4-6 weeks or so. Maybe the situation drastically improves by then… I hope it does, but I just don’t see it.
So the answer to your question is technically: “No, they don’t.” All they need is for one governor to give them the okay, and they can try and hold a season wherever that is. If multiple governors give them the okay, they can do it in multiple places. I’m sure FL and GA will greenlight it, regardless of where things are at; probably AZ and TX too.
But in terms of whether they should do it–no, they shouldn’t. The fans coming back is the absolute last thing that should happen, but it is even unlikely that many states will have testing regimens that will allow it to hold any sporting events at all without it posing a risk. Having people fly all over the place without having enough tests in place is just a bad idea.
(As far as this latest proposal goes, with teams playing at their home stadiums: The border between Canada and the US is currently closed. It very well could open by July, but if it shuts down again in, say, September, what would they do then? This should give you an idea of how crazy this specific proposal is.)
And this as a basic fact is still one of the most telling and disturbing elements of the US-specific outbreak zone.
There is absolutely zero appropriate reason for tests to have not been widely available back when they were widely available elsewhere in the world (about 2 months ago); let alone now… or 2 months from now when this hypothetical season start would be.
Trusting anything the WHO says is your first mistake.
Exactly, they’ve been horrible throughout this. No credibility.
tRumpBot alert!!!
Congratulations, your social credit score just went up.