COVID-19 Roundup: Everybody But Baseball?

This is the latest installment of a series in which the FanGraphs staff rounds up the latest developments regarding the COVID-19 virus’ effect on baseball.

NBA Board of Governors Officially Greenlights Return

There’s more work to be done before the NBA’s tentative July 31 return date, but team owners officially officially approved the pending proposal for the league’s restart. The vote 29-1 in favor, with only the Portland Trail Blazers voting nay because of a disagreement on the structure, and clears the NBA’s next steps: finalizing the COVID-19 safety requirements and getting the final approval of the players. To mitigate the difficulties of traveling in the midst of the pandemic, the games will be played at Disney World at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex.

The players will be having a virtual meeting Friday afternoon, but the NBA and the NBPA have consistently kept an open dialogue about the status of the season and what a return would look like.

NHL Playoff Format Agreement

After an agreement between owners and players on this very subject, the NHL officially announced what the league’s playoffs will look like. After five-game qualifiers, teams will play seven-game series, with teams being re-seeded after every round instead of bracketed. An official start date has not been set, but this clears one of the remaining hurdles for the NHL to return to play, along with the NBA. What remains for the NHL is to finalize agreements for training camps, game protocols, and game hubs, the last as the NHL is unlikely to take the same “one location” tack the NBA is.

What Does This Mean for Baseball?

While the NBA and the NHL have been finalizing their agreements with players, MLB ownership has taken the alternate route of sending a public image of intransigence concerning their negotiations with players. Many writers, including my colleague, Craig Edwards, have made great efforts to point out the holes in the financial claims of the owners; whether or not you favor the owners or players, the latter group hasn’t been announcing or leaking spurious data to the public.

One thing we largely haven’t fully considered to this point is the losses beyond the season for baseball’s revenues. The owners have continually claimed that less baseball means they lose less money, but what happens after 2020? There seems to be this idea that there won’t be ongoing revenue consequences from playing no baseball into 2021. What if baseball’s recovery, after a lost season, is U-shaped or even L-shaped instead of V-shaped?. Even beyond the economic environment nationally, what happens to baseball’s revenues in a no-season scenario if it’s the only major sport not to return? People who would normally watch Mike Trout or Francisco Lindor on a muggy August evening might now watch Giannis Antetokounmpo or Alex Ovechkin. What happens to baseball, a sport that’s based on a long marathon and near-daily habit-watching, when it’s not only not there but there are other sports to replace it?

To anyone who is more sympathetic to the owners than I am, I’d ask, what will MLB’s revenues look like if they start for a permanent baseline that’s 10% — or more — off from their current figures? Why are the owners so willing to cancel the season and eager to save money in the margins of the balance sheets to gut baseball’s future?

And Oh Yeah, There’s Still a Virus Out There

Even for sports fans who aren’t into baseball, eyes should be on the Asian leagues that have resumed or will resume play, given that other sports will face many of the same challenges when it comes to keeping their players as healthy as possible. The NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) has yet to start their season, scheduled for June 19, but on Wednesday announced that two players from the Yomiuri (Tokyo) Giants, reigning MVP Hayato Sakamoto and shortstop Takumi Oshiro, have tested positive for COVID-19.

Sakamoto and Oshiro weren’t the only professional athletes in Japan to test positive this week, either. Mu Kanazaki of Nagoya Grampus in Japan’s top soccer division, the J1 League, tested positive for COVID-19 as well.

Neither of these instances have changed plans for the leagues at this time, but more mini-outbreaks could result in leagues having to rethink some of their plans for this summer based on the experiences of other leagues and that includes Major League Baseball.

Mexican League Sets Opening Day

There will be at least one professional baseball league in North America returning this summer as the Mexican League is now planning to play a 48-game season with playoffs expanded to 12 teams. The season is scheduled to begin on August 7, with the King’s Series starting in early November.

More Minor Leaguers Cut

MLB’s extensive league-wide cuts to minor-league rosters haven’t halted, with the Mariners, Reds, and Rockies joining the extensive list of teams making significant cuts.

Anyone familiar with my work knows that I’ve been very tough on the Kansas City Royals and especially moves made by the team’s general manager, Dayton Moore. But unlike pretty much every team in baseball, the Royals have made the commitment to not only continue to pay their minor league players, but tonot pare their minor league rosters to the bone. Mark this date because I may never say this again: more teams should emulate the Kansas City Royals.