Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat – 10/31/2019

Craig Edwards: Going to let the queue get going for a few more minutes before I jump in.

Craig Edwards: Here’s my piece today on the Astros’ pitching decisions in the seventh inning. https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/strategic-slip-in-seventh-stunts-stros…

Craig Edwards: and here’s my piece on the Turner interference call. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-dumb-rule-almost-ruined-the-world-series…

John: What did we learn from the Nats? Things about player age? Chemistry? Scouting? Nothing?

Craig Edwards: It generally takes a lot of talent to win the World Series and there are a lot of ways to acquire that talent. Having a massive payroll helps. Given the only really high draft pick on the team still under control was Rendon, this also wasn’t a team that benefited a ton from losing a lot, which makes two champs in a row that have gone the spend big without tanking route.

Craig Edwards: Also, apologies if the answers come a bit slow. Trying to get a baby down for her nap.

Howie Kendrick: What does my market look like for next year?

Craig Edwards: I would think a two-year deal to some AL team seems fair. If the Red Sox lost Martinez to FA, I could see Kendrick sliding in there.

Derek: Man the “welcome to the offseason” sub-header really bummed me out… Super fun Games 6 & 7 though!

Craig Edwards: It is weird that the fun games were the ones the Nationals won, but those were just more competitive games and given their underdog status and that they lost 3-5 handily, it felt like all of there wins were kind of a surprise.

Nate: So, you’re not the only guy I’ve seen wonder today if there were any non-baseball reasons Cole wasn’t in the game earlier than he was yesterday. Coupled with his noticeably quick ability to move on, declare himself unemployed and don a Boras Corp hat after the game…do you think he just straight up said he didn’t want to come into the game? Or do you think Boras could have even directed him to not do it? Or do you think maybe he just couldn’t get loose when he was warming up? Or what?

Craig Edwards: Those weren’t the non-baseball reasons I was thinking of. I thought it might have something to do with not wanting Osuna to get the final out. I think Cole was just really upset that his team lost and that he didn’t pitch, which is pretty understandable.

Mark: The Cubs sound serious about shopping Bryant. Is Fried and Kyle Wright a fair offer from Atlanta?

Craig Edwards: Kind of hard to trade a player who we don’t know for sure when he’ll be a free agent. I don’t think that trade is necessarily unfair, but if I were going to trade Bryant, there’s no way I would accept that if I were trying to contend in 2020. It just doesn’t help enough.

Guest: Free Agent Predictions? Time of signing, size of deals etc. Especially likelihood of White Sox intentionally finishing in second place for one of them.

Craig Edwards: I think you’ll like what we have rolling out next week. It wouldn’t surprise me if the market moved a little faster this year. Starting pitching moved pretty quickly last season and this year, the strength of the FA market is starting pitching, There’s always the potential for holdups, though.

Mrs Lincoln: Cubs want to go below luxury tax, have escalating arbitration dollars, & dont really have good prospects to trade.  How do you see them fixing their offense, adding relievers, and shore up a front of the rotation?

Craig Edwards: That’s not possible. https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/cubs

Craig Edwards: I don’t see any way they go below the tax level and fix their problems. There aren’t really easy fixes, either. You mostly have to hope the team plays better and the bullpen isn’t as bad.

Al Gone Quinn: What did you think of Bregman’s bat carry to 1st and Soto’s response? I thought Soto’s response was perfect. Beats the hell out of an Astros hitter getting beaned in retaliation.

Craig Edwards: I had no problem with what Bregman did, though he lost some style points on the handoff. Soto doing it back was great. That’s one of those things where looking at Soto responding in the same fashion tells me he’s really aware of what is going on and paying attention. While that was just a silly celebration, that kind of thing can carry over to other aspects of the game and is a good sign for his future, not that he needed more good signs for his future.

White Sox: They have to make moves that aren’t just roster fillers, right? Give me some hope, Craig.

Craig Edwards: I assume so. The Twins are losing most of their rotation and we just don’t know what Cleveland’s situation is so there’s a real opportunity for the White Sox. If you look at where they can add, it is the rotation and an outfield spot. If Robert can play center, Ozuna/Castellanos/Puig would be ideal bats in the corner. You’d think they would want to bring Abreu back. Signing two good starting pitchers should put them in contention.

Sirras: Any thoughts on the commotion this week at Deadspin?

Craig Edwards: I don’t like seeing good writers without homes for their work. It’s unfortunate the owners didn’t make more of an effort to understand the site, or that they did such a poor job attempting to change the site into what they wanted it to be given they clearly wanted something different.

RAGBRAI : Does winning the WS help, hinder or no effect with Nats retaining Straus and/or Rendon?

Craig Edwards: It definitely provides a lot more revenue this season as well as next year so that would presumably help.

Al Gone Quinn: For agument’s sake, let’s say Cole and Rendon were due for $200 million contracts and Strasburg $120 million prior to the playoffs. What’s the additional amount they can bank on this morning?

Craig Edwards: It’s hard to put a dollar figure on it because they aren’t going to be worth any more money, but if it helps one or two more GMs go to ownership and say this is the guy we need, one more suitor could be worth an extra year on a contract and that might mean $30 million for those guys.

HappyFunBall: If you had to lay odds, do the Nats try to keep the band together? Or is everyone (Rendon, Stras, half a dozen older guys…) going their separate ways?

Craig Edwards: I would be surprised if they didn’t bring back one of Strasburg/Rendon. Not sure if Zimmerman will retire or come back, but I could see a small one-year deal there. Cabrera, too. Not so sure about everybody else.

Nate: I mean…didn’t the Nats still have Strasburg too?

Craig Edwards: re: former picks, yes, but he just finished his 10th season and is in the middle (likely end) of a 7-year, $175 million deal signed six months before free agency.

Hot Take: What’s your take on announcers giving so much airtime during the World Series to speculation about free agents to be?  To me, it reduces the moment significantly.  We can’t even enjoy Game 7 of the World Series, the culmination of a marathon season for the team-iest of team sports without discussing where one particular player may or may not play next year and for how much money.   It really puts a damper on the moment and risks having us lose sight of what is being played for – a team championship in the here and now.

Craig Edwards: I think in this World Series, it is hard to ignore given the three best free agents this winter are all playing. It can be too much at times, but I think it is fine to engage in it a little.

Cole: Am I going to help Mike Trout win a postseason series finally?

Craig Edwards: Have to think the Angels are going to go big this offseason and nobody bigger than Cole. He would certainly help the Angels, but the Astros are still going to be good, Oakland might be, too, and Texas could swoop in and go after some big-time free agents if they wanted to.

Benji: Do any trades typically happen in November?

Craig Edwards: Welington Castillo was just traded from the White Sox to the Rangers so it does happen. We will also seem some deals as teams prepare for the Rule 5 draft as the deadline for protecting players is in November. As for big trades, that might be more early December like Goldschmidt last year and Stanton the year before that.

Raja: How many weeks into Spring Training will it be before Cole signs?  Seems to be the new thing with free agency.

Craig Edwards: I don’t think that’s going to happen. There should be such a big market for him that it shouldn’t take that long.

Baseball Guy: Strasburg isn’t a “really high draft pick still under team control?” They got him because they tanked (intentionall or not).

Craig Edwards: They got him because they gave him $175 million.

Mr. Fister: Other than Bobby Bonilla getting paid until he’s 90 years old, what is the weirdest thing you’ve ever seen a player get added to his contract?  Lifetime supply of nacho cheese?  Personal bathroom in the clubhouse?  Personal hair stylist on call?

Craig Edwards: Rougned Odor has horses in his contract, I think.

Sammy: How much revenue does this WS win provide the nats? has there ever been an analysis of how much each round of the playoffs is “worth”, both in terms of direct ticket revenue, stadium/merch sales, increased attendance next year, etc.

Craig Edwards: They drew like 2.3 million fans this season. That probably gets close to 3 million next season. That’s probably worth $40 million alone, and let’s say half that would have happened even if they lost last night, that’s still a lot. Sponsors are easier to find, plus whatever revenue they get from the actual games, which is also substantial.

zurzles: Should teams be concerned about Cole’s/Strasburg’s arms for the 2020 season? They each threw about a million innings this year

Craig Edwards: 249 for Cole and 245.1 for Strasburg. It’s cause for some concern, though not too much more than if they each pitched 210 innings. Might be best to go a little easy on them next season in the first year of a big deal, but two of the five to ten best pitchers don’t become available every year.

Brad: MLB.com has an article on strange contract clauses: https://www.mlb.com/cut4/nine-strange-mlb-contracts/c-172405266

Matt Chapman: Fielding Bible Awards are out (I won again), and when is the DRS update hitting FanGraphs?

Craig Edwards: Not sure when the update goes live. Congrats, Matt. Sorry it wasn’t unanimous. http://fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp

Gunther Centralperk: Isn’t a Lindor trade a bad idea for the Dodgers? Not sure they should give up picks for two years of him when they could just sign him as a free agent if Cole, Rendon and Betts don’t pan out.

Craig Edwards: I don’t know that it’s a bad idea to trade for one of the best players in baseball. The question is cost. Getting two years of Lindor for a couple high-end prospects seems like a good deal to me. Why Cleveland would do that, I don’t know.

Hot Take: Would you have thrown Hudson in the 9th or Doolittle?

Craig Edwards: Given that Doolittle pitched the night before, starting with Hudson makes sense. If he had gotten in some trouble and Alvarez came up, then going to Doolittle to close the game makes sense. I’m not sure there was a definitive correct answer, but going to the fresher arm makes sense.

James: With Kyle Tucker moving into a starting role and most everyone else back, will the 2020 Astros have the best offense of all time?

Craig Edwards: They might have had it this year. Looking at the totals for players this year. https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/astros

Craig Edwards: it is difficult not to expect some regression out of most of those guys. They might have to settle for best offense in the majors, but only really good historically.

Matt Chapman: Bill James was the only one to pick Arenado over me … I can live with that.

Mr. Burrito: The Dodgers won 106 games, yet there’s pressure to rebuild. Or retool. Or something. Given the vagaries of playoff baseball, and the fact that winning so many games suggests the team is solid, is a tweaking of the magnitude I’m reading about (swapping Seager and possibly May for Lindor) really wise? It feels very un-Dodger-ish….

Craig Edwards: I don’t see how that makes a ton of sense. Seager is a FA at the same time is Lindor. If you are trading for Lindor, you are trying to win now. If you are trading Lindor, you are trying to extend your window further down the road. I don’t see that type of deal accomplishing the goals of either team. The Dodgers are really good and they should have a ton of payroll room next year and into the future. There’s no reason they can’t just keep on winning and trying to give themselves more shots at a title without too much change.

Jordan: Would a trade built around Wil Myers for David Price or Chris Sale make any sense?
I’m not a fan of either team, I’m just intrigued by the RedSox getting under the luxury tax without moving Betts.

Craig Edwards: It’s an interesting thought, but I don’t see how the Red Sox can trade starting pitching. It saves like $15 million or so tax-wise per season but only costs about $20 million total, but then Boston would need to get another pitcher, which costs money or prospects they don’t really have.

Tom: How does added revenue help the Nats when baseball effectively has a salary cap?

Craig Edwards: Baseball doesn’t have a salary cap. Some big market teams have gone cheap which has an effect throughout baseball, but the Nationals have gone over a bunch of times.

Little Hoss: Where’s Kiley?  He’s not living up to his chat schedule

Craig Edwards: Didn’t he chat last night?

Ca$hman: Is Wheeler a good fallback if Cole is California dreaming?

Craig Edwards: It’s a decent-size fall and the Yankees could use some top-flight pitching more than a good 2-3 guy like Wheeler, but a lot of teams will want Cole and need fallbacks.

Derek: As a Red Sox fan, the fact that the stupid “Top X Ideal Landing Spots for Mookie Betts” headlines aren’t going away is really starting to worry me… I know that it’s mostly just clickbait-y stuff, because there’s no way the Red Sox could trade Betts and not give him an extension.

Craig Edwards: I think it will be hard for any offer to match Betts’ value.

Craig Edwards: Thanks for your patience and your questions today, but that is going to do it for me.