Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat – 4/16/2020

Craig Edwards: Let’s get things rolling.

Craig Edwards: Today, I updated my local tv revenue estimates: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-update-the-estimated-local-tv-revenue…

Rob Manfred: Assuming a 100-game slate is played this season without fans in attendance, how should I let the drop in revenue affect the luxury tax thresholds in 2021 and beyond?

Craig Edwards: Beyond 2021 is a question for the next CBA, but in 2021, I don’t think there is going to be any change. Obviously losing the gate is huge blow to revenue, 3 billion+, though half of that already goes back in the form of lower salaries for players. It’s possible teams just spend less this offseason because of more uncertainty in terms of the number of people willing and able to attend games, but it shouldn’t impact the competitive balance tax.

Childish Giambino: Is it acceptable to spit sunflower seeds at our desks upon returning to work if we are not allowed to attend baseball games this season?

Craig Edwards: Seems like a good way to get ants. I don’t think you want ants.

Mr. Burrito: dumb question: who gets hurt more if the season is cancelled, a team on the cusp of winning it all, or a team that’s trying to rebuild?

Craig Edwards: This is a question that seems to come up a lot. Everybody gets hurt a lot, no matter where you are on the spectrum. I think I’ve gone back and forth on what type of team gets hurt the most, but I am currently leaning toward the team currently built to win now because you just don’t know how many opportunities a team will get at a championship run. This is less true if there is a partial season. In a partial season, the rebuilding team is hurt more.

Pat’s Bat: What is the latest date MLB could start playing and still have a 2020 season of some sort?

Craig Edwards: I think they could do as late as mid-September if things haven’t been improving. It would put the all Arizona plan into effect with a 40-game regular season and expanded playoffs.

cpebbles: This chat seems to have the momentum of a runaway train. Why are you so popular?

Craig Edwards: Some say it is the chat’s integrity, others say it is my incorruptibility. Nobody seems to care about my stance on taxes, though I have no issue sticking it to those fat cats in charge.

Petty Padre: Will top free agents like Betts and Springer likely be offered less money this offseason? Fewer suitors at least?

Craig Edwards: I think the uncertainty seems likely to push things down a bit. Much depends on what the country looks like in December and how certain teams are to get their revenue flow back to where it was in 2019 and before. If they play half a season and it is a huge success, there might not be that much downturn, but if they don’t play and COVID-19 shows no signs of being controlled, it is going to be a long winter for everyone.

Aloha Friday: if there is no 2020 season, did the mlb announce how contracts would be treated? do players get paid this year or have their contracts pushed back by one year?  wondering how it might impact the one year deals like ozuna and mega contracts like harper

Craig Edwards: If there is no 2020 season, players do not got paid there contract amounts, but do accrue service time to get to free agency. The players and owners agreed to a deal that gives the players $170 million to split up between them that they get to keep even if the season is cancelled. The players agreed not to sue for their full salaries.

Landon: What’s your favorite team?

Craig Edwards: The Cardinals.

Jason N: If MLB starts with any of the spring training site/no-fans seasons but someone invents a cure and distancing rules go away mid-season, do they stick with spring training sites or start playing games in front of hometown fans?

Craig Edwards: If playing in front of fans at home is at all a safe option, then teams are going to want that. That’s not very likely, though.

Curtis: If the entire season has to be cancelled, what would be some alternatives to keep the connection between the fans and the teams?  Have you heard any plans?   Certainly social distancing needs to be in play but I wonder what creative ideas could keep some sort of momentum into a possible 2021?

Craig Edwards: You are already seeing some of them with players playing MLB The Show against each other on twitch accounts. The offseason will have to start at some point, and teams seem likely to focus on building teams for 2021 in ways that create interest for the fans. Trades, free agency, etc. If there just ends up being no time for a season, but then there’s a lift on staying home and group events, I’m sure teams will put greater emphasis on their warmup events and caravans to try and build interest into the next season.

You aren’t asnwering any of my q: Do you know of a no-download, free, online, baseball sim game, kinda like OOTP?

Craig Edwards: I do not. sorry

Jeff: Hear me out: socially distanced, done-via-Zoom mascot races.

Craig Edwards: I’m not sure that would work, but I have heard you out.

Chucky: Is Harrison Bader, really just Orlando Mercado?

Craig Edwards: I expect Harrison Bader to be a better player than Oscar Mercado. The defense is much better and Bader’s offensive ceiling is a bit higher.

Jim: Did Boras and those fancy agents let their players down? Isn’t it part of their job to forecast what can go wrong? Couldn’t the agreement, or a separate insurance policy, have said that if baseball in cancelled for any reason, Player X still gets a certain dollar amount? My kid’s school trip got cancelled, and that travel company still got $500 for doing nothing, and that was a lousy $3,300 agreement. How could these mega deals not contemplate a cancellation?

Craig Edwards: It’s a national emergency and most contracts have a force majeure clause that likely would have been in play. In terms of insurance, I don’t know how much the insurance would be for $4 billion every year, but I’m guessing it would be pretty expensive with a very unlikely return in the case of a pandemic.

Childish Giambino: In the $170 million getting paid to the players no matter what that you mentioned above, is that being split between all players (majors and minors), or do the minor leaguers have some sort of safety net in place?

Craig Edwards: It is going to players on the 40-man roster plus non-roster invitees with MLB service time. The minor leaguers are not represented by the union (or any union) so they are out of luck. Teams have committed to paying them something close to what many would have gotten if they had been playing, though that’s not much money to begin with.

Aloha Friday: really enjoyed players mic’d up this spring, hoping they continue that in regular season play

Craig Edwards: The players would probably be a little more reserved in games that matter, but it is something that would be nice to see, at least occasionally, during the season.

Jason: I’ve been in 3 different chats this week and I always end up just sitting here trying so hard to think up a question and I haven’t thought of a single one all week. Sad times. Thank you for continuing to do these chats even when the content is sparse.

Craig Edwards: I appreciate your efforts. The chats are a little less lively the past few weeks than they have been in the season or even during the normal offseason, but I appreciated everyone who takes the time to come and interact.

Jim: There are a static number of wins and championships. If the pandemic costs a team wins or championships, anything short of a canceled season must benefit somebody? Who might be winners in all this?

Craig Edwards: Assuming some season gets played, the shorter the season, the more of a chance the middle-of-the-pack teams have at the postseason because the results are going to be more random. A full season sorts teams out by talent in a way a half season might not.

Childish Giambino: Any idea on how this will affect front offices moving forward?  You have to imagine there will be downsizing based on the length of the layoff.  If there is no baseball in 2020, what do front offices look like next year?

Craig Edwards: It depends on how much cutting teams do. There might be some downsizing, but it isn’t really a significant effect on the bottom line. If teams want to save money, we’ll likely see it in MLB payroll.

AC/SD: What would you do to get the Padres a World Series-caliber team by 2022? Much appreciated.

Craig Edwards: Hope that Gore, Paddack, and Patiño are a great 1-2-3, and if they aren’t trade from the farm to get a starter and one more really good position player.

Kevin: I have to imagine a chat covered it at some point, but the Astros/Lunhow/Hinch seem like pretty big winners of this weirdness in a lot of ways. Is there no penalty for Lunhow and Hinch extending into next season?

Craig Edwards: That assumes that Luhnow and Hinch are more employable with their suspensions lifted. They aren’t making any money right now so they still miss the season regardless. As for the Astros, they are one of the bigger losers if there’s no season. Springer becomes a FA. Verlander and Greinke get a year older. Altuve hits his 30s and Correa gets a year closer to FA without playing. The Astros are in a pretty big competitive window right now and they are in danger of exiting it. They are a better version of the Cubs in that way.

viceroy: Were managers, front office execs or minor league contracts extended like Major League player contracts were?

Craig Edwards: Managers and front office execs aren’t covered by the CBA. Many of the top executives will presumably be asked to take a paycut. Not sure about managers, though I’m guessing teams are still employing them to be able to keep in touch with players while they are away.

Mike Rizzo: How can the Nats make the most of this down time to celebrate being the world champions with their fans?

Craig Edwards: Watch a lot of highlights, I would guess. The ring ceremony is usually a pretty special one with fans in the crowd. I don’t think there is a good way to simulate that, but hopefully they get something figured out.

Alex: Which contract and player do you prefer, Kepler or Woodruff? As a Twins fan, I’d reluctantly make that deal for Woodruff, but curious what others think. They were ranked #40 & #41 in the trade value series last July.

Craig Edwards: I think it is still pretty close. There’s still the question about a full season of innings from Woodruff, but he was the better player last season on a rate basis. If I were thinking long term contract, I take Kepler, but I might rather have Woodruff at the moment because potentially having a cheap ace brings too much reward.

viceroy: How will park factors and advanced states work this year if everything is at spring training facilities? Is there enough data on those fields?

Craig Edwards: That’s a good question. Arizona teams could maybe use Chase Field as a proxy with Florida teams using Miami, at least at the start of the season until we get more data.

AC/SD: The Padres hope to contend within a year, but their outfield and second base situation is a mess, and no immediate, star-caliber help coming via the minors. Should they go all in and try to get George Springer and trade for Jose Ramirez? Any good, left of center choices to solidify their lineup going forward?

Craig Edwards: There are always plenty of second basemen available, so it isn’t really a position you need to shoot for the moon for. I’m not sure I would like Springer as a center fielder long term. He might be more of a corner guy into the future. The Padres are better off getting the best player they can regardless of position (and that might be Ramirez and/or Springer) and then making sure they have at least competence at positions that currently look like holes.

#1 Craig Edwards Fan: What are your thoughts on the popularity of baseball upon a return?  If the 2020 season is lost and they pick it back up next spring, what do you think that does to overall fan numbers?  Will we see even more “theme days” and giveaways at the ballpark in an effort to drive numbers back up?

Craig Edwards: I think tv ratings would be way up but attendance would be significantly down. More theme nights, more month at a time standing room packages, things we’ve started to see will become very popular in order to get fans back in the ballpark.

Keith: Am curious about that small segment of players who were already placed on the 60-day DL by their teams (like Jordan Hicks or Michael Fulmer) but could be ready to return given a delayed start to the season.  Will they have to sit out the 60 days or could there be a reprieve?  Thanks.

Craig Edwards: I’m guessing they could come back.

Sir Nerdlington: Thank for more ‘business of’ articles. I find them fascinating. One content series I’d love to see is two of you debating the various points of the next CBA from each side.

Craig Edwards: Thanks. The next CBA was already going to be very interesting and losing some or all of this season is going to make negotiations very difficult with a huge incentive to avoid a work stoppage. I’m not sure if all of the business articles are here, but we do have a business tag I try to use so you should be able to find a bunch of them here, if interested. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/category/business/

Craig Edwards: Thanks for all the questions. That’s going to do it for me today. Stay safe.