Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat–7/11/2019

2:02

Craig Edwards: Let’s get things rolling.

2:02

Lukas: What would it take for a modern MLB franchise to replicate what the Patriots have done in the NFL over the past 18 years? This would mean 6 WS titles, 9 pennants, 13 LCS appearances, 16 division titles and average around 96-97 wins during an 18 year span.

2:04

Craig Edwards: I think that particular scenario is sort of impossible under the current setup. A team averaging 96-97 wins per season still probably doesn’t get to the LCS 2/3 of the time, WS half the time and win it one third of the time. To do it, a team would need to to not care about payroll at all, have a really good farm system and win something like 105-110 games per year to have a really good shot at that many title in this environment. Baseball teams in the playoffs are too evenly matched to have this type of scenario, generally.

2:05

Kyle Tucker: Who would you rather have in your org, me or Christian Pache?

2:06

Craig Edwards: Well THE BOARD! basically just flip flopped those guys in the last update. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2019-in-season-prospect-…

2:07

Craig Edwards: I think in a general organizational sense, it looks like Pache is more likely to produce more value over the long haul. If I was a team in need of a corner outfielder, with a 0 or something close to it now and nothing expected for next season, then I would take Tucker.

2:07

Chris: When will the trading start?

2:09

Craig Edwards: Quintana two years ago and Machado last year were both right around now so I would think we might get some team trying to jump the gun on the market and some team worried about a pitcher getting injured wanting to move them. So one interesting deal in the next week, then not much before the actual deadline.

2:10

Chris: Braves get Domingo Santana or mallex smith and stroman. Blue Jays get Walters and Kyle Lewis. Mariners get Kyle wright or touki. Who says no?

2:13

Craig Edwards: My brain cramping up does. Why wouldn’t the Blue Jays just add more to the deal if they could get Waters and Wright for Stroman+. The deal implies that Santana and Stroman are worth two 55s and I’m having a tough time buying that.

2:13

Clint the Wildling: As the centerpiece of a trade this coming offseason, who brings back more in a trade. Clint Frazier or Miguel Andujar.

2:16

Craig Edwards: Neither one is the centerpiece of a deal. Andujar’s value is impossible to tell until he plays so no team is going to take him as part of sending a good player away while Frazier has been a replacement level player in roughly 400 PA and might end up being a super-2 after next season. If the Yankees don’t trade Frazier now, they’ll either need to hope for a big year at some point or they will trade him for less than they could while he still has some prospect value on him.

2:17

mike sixel: 4-5 trades a year in the first two weeks of July (the last 5 years), but almost none of them outside the two you mentioned had big time players in them. The only other big one was between Oak and ChC in 2014. So, maybe 1 big trade a year before mid-late July…..

2:17

Craig Edwards: thanks

2:18

hendu: What type of player does Zach Wheeler likely bring back?

2:20

Craig Edwards: A back-end top-100 guy or maybe a guy just outside of that plus another, lower prospect. Something like the Happ deal or a bit less than Darvish.

2:22

MB: Can the Brewers put together a package for Thor that doesn’t include Hiura?

2:23

Craig Edwards: You could try to build something around Burnes, but it would be pretty tough. If the Mets do actually decide to trade him, there are going to be a ton of teams in on him because there are a lot of contenders, he’s with the team beyond this year, and his potential to transform a team is higher than anybody’s.

2:24

Craig Edwards: The same is true for Bauer, but it would be really weird to see Cleveland trade Bauer in a race when they could just as easily move him in the offseason, maybe for slightly less.

2:24

John: When assessing a player’s HOF candidacy, what is your view on postseason performance being extra credit, i.e. not dinging a player for poor (or lack of) performance but crediting a player for memorable/goodpostseason performance?

2:26

Craig Edwards: I wouldn’t (I don’t have a vote) penalize anybody for not playing in the playoffs or playing poorly there. I think generally a player’s body of work is going to speak for itself, though players who might not be Hall of Famers on paper who had amazing postseason careers like Lou Brock or David Ortiz, I think it should definitely be a consideration.

2:27

Cito’s Mustache: Hey, Craig! Thanks for the great piece last month on Marcus Stroman. Do you think he’s the kind of pitcher who could age well? He’s a tremendous athlete, arm has been relatively healthy, doesn’t rely on pure velo to be effective… I know he’ll be 30 in his free agent year, but an extension with the Jays wouldn’t be the worst thing would it? He wants to stay, too.

2:27

Craig Edwards: Thank you. Here’s that piece. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/everyone-should-want-marcus-stroman/

2:30

Craig Edwards: I think being a good athlete certainly helps, though I wouldn’t bet on any particular pitcher to age better than pitchers generally. That said, Stroman at ages 30-34 isn’t exactly ancient. I think that type of deal comes with the same sort of risks with any pitcher. I don’t necessarily fault the Blue Jays for taking a wait and see attitude. If they want to contend next season, they are going to have to commit a lot of long-term resources outside the org. If they don’t want to contend until 2021 or later it makes more sense to see what Stroman after 2020 before offering him a big deal.

2:30

Chris: The stroman to braves Twitter storm sure is fun!! What would it take for it to actually happen?

2:33

Craig Edwards: As for Stroman’s trade value generally, he’s the best, most realistic option out there for every team. He isn’t Syndergaard, but he’s really good and arb eligible next season at a low rate which opens the number of suitors. He will need to make a few more starts because he hasn’t started this month. I would imagine it would take one top-50ish prospect plus somebody else near the back of the top-100 to get a deal done assuming Stroman shows he’s healthy.

2:34

makaikai: What do you make of Deivi Garcia?  Another overhyped Yankees prospect or Pedro 2.0?

2:37

Craig Edwards: Given those two options the answer is obvious. Garcia is a pitcher who has walked a lot of guys as he’s moved up. There are still considerable steps he needs to take before he’s one of the best 10-20 prospects in the game. He’s capable of taking those steps, but even those top guys don’t pan out sometimes. He’s a guy that the Yankees probably hold on to because the upside is too much to pass up and they can afford to take other avenues to success without giving up top prospects.

2:38

Guest: Do you expect Clint Frazier and a 40 man throw-in (Wade, Estrada, Abreu) would get it done for Robbie Ray?

2:38

Craig Edwards: I do not.

2:39

Dom Smith: Which current MLB role-players deserve more playing time?

2:39

Craig Edwards: Good question. I suspect you might have an answer.

2:41

Stevil: Who should be the most interested in Mike Leake right now and is it even wise for Seattle to move him given the likely light return? St. Louis is still chipping in to keep his salary reasonable.

2:43

Craig Edwards: Depends on what they can do with the money they save and the prospect return. Also, if he might be blocking someone who needs development at the major league level. They know he isn’t going to be part of the next winner so the question is maximizing his trade value. For an average pitcher, that’s probably going to be at the trade deadline when he’s healthy. It isn’t like he’s going to get way better all of a sudden and teams are going to start clamoring for him.

2:44

Yankees: What would Yankee projections be if they were actually healthy? They’re still missing A LOT of guys

2:45

Craig Edwards: At the beginning of the season, they were projected to win 62% of their games. They’ve won 65% of their games, but ROS projections say 59% the rest of the way. Bump up ROS to preseason and that’s another 2-3 wins, so 103 wins probably.

2:46

crayyyyyg: man you are slow

2:46

Craig Edwards: sorry. trying to look stuff up slows me down sometimes.

2:47

Stevil: If you’re the Mets, do you sell, or keep what you have and hope for rebounds next season?

2:50

Craig Edwards: The Mets can do a complete rebuild, but that makes no sense with Alonso, McNeil, etc. let alone deGrom and the money already committed to players like Cano. They just need to keep going for it, but unfortunately, the lack of payroll room provided by the ownership hamstrings the team and causes moves like the Cano/Diaz deal when you trade good young prospects and move around money because increasing the payroll isn’t an option. If payroll really can’t go up in that market with that tv deal, MLB needs to find new owners. Since that’s not going to happen, you just have to hope to get lucky with a mediocre team that has good players one of these years.

2:50

Davis: You’re really not that slow

2:50

crayyyyyg: just messing w u. thx for answering all these q’s

2:51

Cardinals: Where would you rank availbale Cardinals players on the trade market; Wacha, JMart, and Wong. Any others I’m missing?

2:56

Craig Edwards: There’s not a market for Wacha. The market for Martinez should have been greater last offseason, but they couldn’t move him and now he’s got a .140 ISO. The glove doesn’t play unless he’s hitting a ton of homers. There isn’t much value there. As for Wong, the second base market has been flooded the past few years. Teams would certainly want him as he’s a valuable player under contract for two more years, but he’s not going to get a ton on the trade market. If the Cardinals want to make a trade from the major league roster and get a lot back, it’s basically DeJong and Flaherty with Bader and O’Neill having some value. Everybody else already has a market value or worse contract.

2:56

Dr. Bob: If STL traded for Leake then they would be paying themselves for playing him.

2:56

Craig Edwards: I think the Dodgers might have actually done that with Kemp.

2:57

VP215: Is this version of Scott Kingery for real, or a BABIP-fueled anomaly?

2:59

Craig Edwards: The version that walks 6%, 28% K, .369 BABIP isn’t going to work going forward. Walking 9% of the time with a 25% k-rate and a .330 BABIP might get him close to the same results though.

3:00

Wilson: Is it more beneficial to grow homegrown talent when building a team because of the options it allows for the future? A good farm system can be converted to good trade building and possibly re-feeding the system when a qualifying offer can be extended netting compensation picks.

3:00

Craig Edwards: If you are building a team, the homegrown talent has the benefit of being cheap so you theoretically conserve resources for later when you are more certain you will need them to contend.

3:02

Craig Edwards: I wrote about where teams have gotten their talent today: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/building-a-baseball-team-through-free-agen…

3:02

Craig Edwards: One other plug before I stop because I hear a baby crying, but here’s our franchise draft, where I took Vlad, Jr. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-2019-fangraphs-franchise-player-draft-…

3:02

Craig Edwards: Thanks for the questions. See you next week.

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Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.

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