Craig Edwards FanGraphs Chat – 7/9/2020

Craig Edwards: Let’s get things rolling.

Craig Edwards: I’ve been light on publishing this week as we get ready for the Positional Power Rankings that come next week so we’ll just get right to the chat.

Estevao: Dumb question. Would you rather have Andrelton Simmons or the best DH in the league, prime Ortiz or JD Martinez for the same price?

Craig Edwards: So value-wise prime Ortiz and Simmons are pretty close to each other, so it is more of a preference/roster alignment situation. Given that, I’ll take Simmons knowing I might have a surplus bat or be better able to move my team’s surplus elsewhere for a surplus bat where I might not be able to do the same at shortstop.

Barry: Hi: Preparing for my auction draft. Can we expect to get updated Zips or Sections, based on 60  games, from FanGraphs within the next couple of wks? Thanks

Craig Edwards: I think your best bet is to use the Depth Charts Projections, which are set for a 60-game season. https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=fang…

Estevao: Between the lousy stadium, low revenue, small fanbase and the budget of the other four teams on the division, it’d be basically impossible for Major League Baseball to design a scenario with more competitive disadvantage without looking at the front office and team on the field than the Tampa Bay Rays, right

Craig Edwards: The issue is the four things listed are all basically one thing and not necessarily static. We know what happens to Tampa Bay with a lousy stadium. It’s those other three things. If they had a nice, new stadium those other three things might be less of an issue. How to get that stadium is obviously a problem to speak nothing of the current pandemic, and no matter what they do, they aren’t going to be on the same level as the Yankees and Red Sox. All that said, appropriate revenue sharing would seem to be able to solve much of the competitive issues at work.

Chris: If you were gm of a tigers/marlins/etc type team would you try to trade players (like Matthew Boyd) at pre covid price or at next offseasons price?

Craig Edwards: I think if there were a decent market for players like Boyd, they would have been traded in the offseason. I think any player on a relatively inexpensive contract should probably be held on to for another year because the potential reward of getting good prospects probably outweighs the risk of performance going way down and getting nothing compared to what the offers might be right now, in a month or even in the winter.

Chris: What color uniform would you like to see an expansion team use?

Craig Edwards: I think the scheme is a lot more important than an individual color. I think a lighter blue might work very well with a stronger secondary color. The Chicago flag is a good example of this. I generally don’t love the very dark, think diamondbacks old purple or newer dark red. Primaries and a little bit lighter would be my preferred uniform style, I think. But that sort of thing changes over time, and I don’t really have any idea about what I’m talking about.

Mike Hawk: In their primes, would you take Mike Trout or Willie Mays for your team?

Craig Edwards: I think they are pretty equivalent players (relative to their peers) assuming we are in Mike Trout’s prime right now and he’s not going to get better, but if we are talking about today’s game, Trout is the clear choice. Of course, I am blessed with the ability to watch Mike Trout and that isn’t something I got to do with Willie Mays, which would have been fun.

Chris: Over/under 0.5 trades before the season starts? And will dipoto with not much to trade be involved?

Craig Edwards: We’ve already seen Jorge Mateo go to San Diego, but assuming you mean going forward, I think we’ll see a few trades happen before the season starts though I’m not sure there are going to be any big names involved until we’ve seen players start playing.

Dave: What do you think about the idea of Nashville getting an expansion team?     Best way for the owners to recoup some of their lost money is to expand.

Craig Edwards: I’m sure there is a lot to work out there in terms of the stadium and potential owners but Nashville seems like a good place for a team. North Carolina, Portland, Montreal, San Antonio, and New York also present interesting possibilities. I hope we see two rounds of expansion within the next decade. The talent level is so incredibly high right now, it could easily support more teams and it is a great way to grow the game and make new fans.

Craig Edwards: I wrote about the possibility given the lost revenues this season back in March. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/will-mlb-turn-to-expansion-after-losing-re…

Mike Hawk: When players test positive for C-19, are they automatically moved to the IL?  Why are some teams choosing to put guys on the C-19 IL and some not?

Craig Edwards: I think at this stage, it doesn’t really matter much unless they need a roster spot and most teams don’t. Plus, given the slow returns on testing and the potential for false positives, you wouldn’t want to add a player to the 60-player pool only to have to take someone off if that player is ready to play because of a false positive or very mild case. You can’t remove a player from the 60-player pool without exposing them to waivers or free agency so teams are going to be cautious.

Chris: Do you think intersquad games are more interesting than split squad spring training games against other teams? I’d definitely watch my team play my team on TV!!

Craig Edwards: For me, I’d rather watch the split squad games in spring training because then I get to see more players on other teams than I would watching team-only games. Most of the players you see in these games right now, you’d be seeing throughout spring training anyway. The correct answer is that I like to watch baseball and am happy to see it in some form here in the U.S.

Little things: Little rules that are cute and not deadly might change things more than we think. The other night, Sanchez threw the ball around the horn, so Cole couldn’t have it back with these rules. Then he gave up a homer. I think it will be interesting to see these little sorts of things matter (but I’ll be very happy to see any games so I don’t care).

Craig Edwards: That reminds me of Lance Lynn last year getting mad at the ump because he kept throwing balls out of play and getting new balls and Lynn just wanted to pitch.

Mike Hawk: Do you know if double headers were seriously considered during the negotiations for a 2020 season?

Craig Edwards: They were put into the March agreement for consideration. The players were pushing for them in order to play more games. The owners didn’t want to do them because they said they weren’t as palatable with tv partners in terms of money per game as well as safety issues. I think if we were talking about a May start or something like that we would have seen them, but since the owners didn’t want as many games, it was a non-starter for them.

JD: Will there be a robust market for high-end relievers on the final year of their contracts like Ken Giles and Kirby Yates? Or will the Covid concerns depress the returns they may normally fetch?

Craig Edwards: That’s going to be difficult to tell. Even in a normal year, you are trading for 20 innings plus postseason. What happens when it is only 10 innings plus postseason and the only players that can be traded are on the 60-man rosters or as PTBNL who nobody has seen in months? I think the returns will be less than normal, particularly for players making a decent salary on bad teams who might just be trying to cut costs heading into the winter.

Craig Edwards: It also very much depends on how the races shape up and how many teams are actually out of it after one month.

Estevao: Texas is not making the postseason, their long term outlook isn’t very promising, why did they trade for Kluber? Basically to take advantage of payroll space hoping that the right hander boosts his value for a deadline deal or was this a legitimate shot to contend now

Craig Edwards: Texas might make the postseason. https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds They’re at 11% in our current playoff odds and they would have made it after 60 games last year.

Craig Edwards: Also, nobody really wanted Kluber. Texas had a bunch of money and middling playoff hopes. Might as well add a high variance guy who might end up being an ace when you don’t have to give up much to get him.

Forgotten: We all remembers Betts (and Price, who we won’t see), but I had totally forgotten about Kluber. What’s a deal you definitely had to be reminded about as you started to look at real games being played?

Craig Edwards: The Phillies adding Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorious I didn’t totally forget about, but it took me awhile to remember what they had done. Tanner Roark to the Blue Jays was another one.

JD: Let’s say Mookie Betts and the Dodgers agreed to terms on a new contract today. What would that contract look like?

Craig Edwards: Today? Maybe 8 and 260?

Honus: How do you think baseball without fans might affect performance?  How many players do you think feel the pressure of 40k fans and the “second deck”?

Craig Edwards: I’m not sure. I think if there’s a real effect that takes place it would come from the pitching side, particularly starters late in games and relievers. I think the adrenaline of the moment matters and crowds probably can have some affect there. The question will be whether it is really the crowd or just the moment in the game that creates the adrenaline rush and the extra tick of velocity. I think for the most part the hitters who have made it to the majors are mostly immune to the big league pressures. They’ve overcome a lot just to get there. I do think that getting as much experience possible playing without fans right now could help because there is possibly some adjustment for comfort and repetition that won’t be there. Players will need to adapt a little.

Estevao: When an expansion occurs will we get a couple of six team divisions or four divisions with four teams each using the NFL playoffs format. What would you prefer?

Craig Edwards: I would prefer two large division in both leagues though I’m guessing there would be four as well some expansion of the playoffs, which, long term I would prefer stay mostly the same as it is now.

Chris: Which Mariner would you pick to win rookie of the year?

Craig Edwards: I don’t think Kelenic or Rodriguez are going to play enough, or maybe at all, in order to get consideration. So that really leaves Justus Sheffield and Evan White as the main candidates. I’m not sure either are favorites or anything, but if White could hit 15 homers or something like that, he could win, which seems more likely than Sheffield going on a huge run.

Dan: Has a player with a decently long career ever had all their best months in the same year? What would that look like if you could magically make it happen?

Craig Edwards: They’d probably look like Barry Bonds in a normal year. Here’s the best offensive months of the past 10 years all grouped together. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=&splitA…

Craig Edwards: Here’s Barry Bonds from 2002-2004: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=&splitA…

Guest: So far, Trout has been roughly equal to Machado + Harper in terms of WAR.  Which side of that would you rather have on your (hypothetical) team going forward – Trout or Machado/Harper?

Craig Edwards: Trout. He gives a team such a great head start that it’s nearly impossible for two players to match.

Honus: Might the top prospects benefit more from a year around MLB players and coaches than, say, a AA development year?

Craig Edwards: That might be true for a few players, but almost all are going to be better off hitting and pitching against guys who challenge them to get better or against guys they prove they are better than in order to get to the next level.

Beltre 2004: That had to be a lot of his best months

Craig Edwards: Yes, though Beltre had a lot of good months. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/splits-leaderboards?splitArr=&splitA…

Trout Playoffs: In what year will Mike Trout have more playoff victories than MVP trophies? (I’m not slamming him, I think it’s sad his teammates have been bad)

Craig Edwards: Hopefully this one. Maybe next year.

Honus: The Pirates have a….  Boring roster.   What is the plan?

Craig Edwards: Hopefully make it less boring in short order. I know Ke’Bryan Hayes would make it a bit more exciting given his glove. The farm system is good. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-42-prospects-pittsburgh-pirates/

Craig Edwards: Maybe one of the top-five in the game. The test will be how they supplement it if they can get closer to contention. https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-in-season-prospect-…

Craig Edwards: That’s all I’ve got time for today. Make sure to keep an eye out for the positional power rankings which will be out soon.