Cranking Out the Post-Trade Deadline ZiPS
Even in a wackily truncated season like this one, the trade deadline serves as an important landmark in the playoff hunt. While players will still be released and signed, lose their jobs and get injured, the dramatic changes in team quality are largely over. For a projectionist such as myself, it also comes as a relief as I no longer have to worry about spending time crunching the numbers only to have a 14-player, three-way trade go down just after I file an article. The players teams have on their rosters now are more or less the ones they have at their disposal over the rest of the season.
Before we get to the division-by-division standings updates, let’s take a quick look at how the last few days altered teams’ playoff odds. I projected the rest of the season for each team based on both their roster prior to the deadline’s moves and their roster as it stands post-deadline. I then compared the results to see which club saw the biggest rest-of-season gains and losses.
| Team | Division Before | Division After | Diff | Playoffs Before | Playoffs After | Diff | World Series Before | World Series After | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 56.8% | 69.6% | 12.9% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Miami Marlins | 2.5% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 34.2% | 37.9% | 3.7% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| San Diego Padres | 7.5% | 10.1% | 2.5% | 96.7% | 98.0% | 1.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 0.6% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 3.4% | 3.5% | 0.1% | 35.0% | 36.2% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 18.4% | 19.2% | 0.8% | 79.6% | 80.6% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 0.1% |
| Colorado Rockies | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 21.6% | 22.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| New York Mets | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.7% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Chicago Cubs | 67.8% | 68.6% | 0.8% | 96.1% | 96.2% | 0.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 21.6% | 21.2% | -0.4% | 75.0% | 75.1% | 0.1% | 3.2% | 3.1% | -0.1% |
| Houston Astros | 25.4% | 25.4% | 0.0% | 96.8% | 96.9% | 0.1% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 0.0% |
| Oakland A’s | 74.5% | 74.5% | 0.0% | 99.7% | 99.7% | 0.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 0.0% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 92.4% | 89.8% | -2.5% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | 15.5% | 15.2% | -0.3% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 65.3% | 64.7% | -0.5% | 99.9% | 99.9% | 0.0% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Atlanta Braves | 76.5% | 75.3% | -1.2% | 98.2% | 98.1% | 0.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | -0.1% |
| Chicago White Sox | 33.5% | 35.5% | 2.0% | 97.0% | 96.9% | -0.1% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 0.1% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | -0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| New York Yankees | 34.1% | 33.8% | -0.3% | 99.4% | 99.3% | -0.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% |
| Cleveland Indians | 46.0% | 42.8% | -3.2% | 98.4% | 97.7% | -0.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | -0.4% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | -0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Washington Nationals | 0.6% | 0.5% | -0.1% | 16.0% | 15.1% | -0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| San Francisco Giants | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 46.1% | 45.0% | -1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | -0.1% |
| Detroit Tigers | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 19.9% | 18.7% | -1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Minnesota Twins | 20.3% | 21.4% | 1.1% | 94.4% | 93.2% | -1.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | -0.1% |
| Seattle Mariners | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | -1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Boston Red Sox | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | -1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.4% | 5.5% | -1.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% | -1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 7.2% | 6.6% | -0.6% | 51.1% | 49.2% | -1.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | -0.1% |
| Texas Rangers | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.5% | 4.9% | -2.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 17.0% | 12.0% | -5.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | -0.2% |
The San Diego Padres were an excellent club prior to the deadline. They were already nearly assured of a playoff spot — under the 16-team playoff format, it’s very hard to move the postseason needle much when you’re already a top team and there simply weren’t that many playoff-missing scenarios for deadline additions to wipe from the timeline — but faced a difficult path to catching the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have a strong case for being the best team in baseball. The divisional bump is real for San Diego — their divisional chances got a bigger jolt than any other team — but even though their roster improved more than any other club’s, they don’t get the largest playoff or postseason gain in the projections. The reality is that winning a division in 2020 versus finishing second doesn’t really matter all that much, which is why you saw a lot of the coasting teams either only add a few role players or completely stand pat.
Instead, when it comes to playoff probabilities, the Blue Jays and the Marlins are the two teams that helped themselves the most. The Blue Jays have more upside now than they did a week ago, even if none of the moves they made are earth-shattering by themselves. Catching the Rays and Yankees is still a long shot, though it’s not impossible. The Jays have strengthened themselves relative to their biggest eighth-seed competition — oddly enough, the Detroit Tigers — and most of the long-shot American League Wild Card contenders got worse.
Acquiring Starling Marte is a bigger deal for the Marlins in a season like this simply because in most years, when teams make deadline additions, so does their competition. The Padres being better doesn’t really affect the Marlins that much and they receive a further boost by virtue of most of the rest of the National League having been fairly quiet in terms of additions.
Elsewhere, many of the game’s best teams took a passive approach to deadline. The notable exception was the Cleveland Indians, who by trading Clevinger, lost more projected divisional ground and World Series championship probability than any other team in baseball. Unsurprisingly, the explicitly retooling Diamondbacks suffered the biggest playoff loss; though they stand just 3 1/2 games behind the final NL playoff spot, the roster is much weaker after the trades. They could still theoretically fall into the eighth spot because weird things happen in baseball — such as last year’s Brewers playing better after the Christian Yelich injury — but more likely than not, Arizona’s long slump and injuries have doomed their season.
Now, to those updated standings!
| Team | W | L | GB | W% | Division | Second | Wild Card | Playoffs | WS Win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 39 | 21 | — | .650 | 64.7% | 32.3% | 2.9% | 99.9% | 10.5% |
| New York Yankees | 37 | 23 | 2 | .617 | 33.8% | 57.7% | 7.7% | 99.3% | 8.0% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 31 | 29 | 8 | .517 | 1.4% | 9.8% | 58.4% | 69.6% | 2.3% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 24 | 36 | 15 | .400 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 0.1% |
| Boston Red Sox | 23 | 37 | 16 | .383 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| Team | W | L | GB | W% | Division | Second | Wild Card | Playoffs | WS Win |
| Cleveland Indians | 35 | 25 | — | .583 | 42.8% | 32.3% | 22.5% | 97.7% | 6.3% |
| Chicago White Sox | 35 | 25 | — | .583 | 35.5% | 34.5% | 26.9% | 96.9% | 5.8% |
| Minnesota Twins | 34 | 26 | 1 | .567 | 21.4% | 31.2% | 40.6% | 93.2% | 4.6% |
| Detroit Tigers | 27 | 33 | 8 | .450 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 16.7% | 18.7% | 0.4% |
| Kansas City Royals | 25 | 35 | 10 | .417 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 0.1% |
| Team | W | L | GB | W% | Division | Second | Wild Card | Playoffs | WS Win |
| Oakland A’s | 37 | 23 | — | .617 | 74.5% | 25.1% | 0.2% | 99.7% | 7.8% |
| Houston Astros | 34 | 26 | 3 | .567 | 25.4% | 70.6% | 0.8% | 96.9% | 4.6% |
| Texas Rangers | 24 | 36 | 13 | .400 | 0.0% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 0.1% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 24 | 36 | 13 | .400 | 0.0% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 0.1% |
| Seattle Mariners | 24 | 36 | 13 | .400 | 0.0% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 0.1% |
| Team | W | L | GB | W% | Division | Second | Wild Card | Playoffs | WS Win |
| Atlanta Braves | 36 | 24 | — | .600 | 75.3% | 19.2% | 3.6% | 98.1% | 7.2% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 31 | 29 | 5 | .517 | 19.2% | 47.8% | 13.6% | 80.6% | 3.5% |
| Miami Marlins | 27 | 33 | 9 | .450 | 2.8% | 15.4% | 19.7% | 37.9% | 1.1% |
| New York Mets | 27 | 33 | 9 | .450 | 2.1% | 12.8% | 18.9% | 33.7% | 1.0% |
| Washington Nationals | 25 | 35 | 11 | .417 | 0.5% | 4.8% | 9.8% | 15.1% | 0.4% |
| Team | W | L | GB | W% | Division | Second | Wild Card | Playoffs | WS Win |
| Chicago Cubs | 34 | 26 | — | .567 | 68.6% | 22.3% | 5.3% | 96.2% | 6.0% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 31 | 29 | 3 | .517 | 21.2% | 39.9% | 14.0% | 75.1% | 3.1% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 29 | 31 | 5 | .483 | 6.6% | 22.4% | 20.2% | 49.2% | 1.5% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 29 | 31 | 5 | .483 | 3.5% | 15.2% | 17.5% | 36.2% | 1.0% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 21 | 39 | 13 | .350 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Team | W | L | GB | W% | Division | Second | Wild Card | Playoffs | WS Win |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 41 | 19 | — | .683 | 89.8% | 10.1% | 0.1% | 100.0% | 15.2% |
| San Diego Padres | 35 | 25 | 6 | .583 | 10.1% | 81.0% | 7.0% | 98.0% | 7.0% |
| San Francisco Giants | 29 | 31 | 12 | .483 | 0.1% | 6.2% | 38.8% | 45.0% | 1.4% |
| Colorado Rockies | 27 | 33 | 14 | .450 | 0.0% | 2.0% | 20.4% | 22.4% | 0.6% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 25 | 35 | 16 | .417 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 0.3% |
Most of the action is in the NL, with seven teams in the AL already projected with at least a 90% chance of making the playoffs; there’s only about a one-in-six chance that any of the top seven teams in the AL miss the playoffs this year. The Blue Jays didn’t pick up any superstars, but they certainly recognized an extremely high-leverage situation when they saw one, so credit goes to them for that.
In the NL, only four teams have crossed that 90% threshold, which makes for a much more enjoyable slate of pennant races! Six teams project to have between a 25% and 75% chance of making the playoffs, while in the AL, only the Jays are in that range.
Of course, there are some things that ZiPS cannot know. For example, how many games will the St. Louis Cardinals actually end up playing? Will any other contenders suffer a COVID-19 outbreak? I honestly don’t know and if I don’t, the computer certainly doesn’t, either. So sit back, grab some tacos and a beer, and enjoy the penultimate act of the oddest season you’ll ever see.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
ZiPS still doesn’t hate the Mets as much as the Mets seem to hate the Mets. They keep losing games and the run differential is gonna be in the red to stay now, given all the rotation injuries. I could foresee Philly running away with the 2nd spot, but I think the Marlins might…be legit? I mean, for an 8th seed, at least. Their best reinforcements might be some of the kids getting more at bats anyway.
But I always end up a Marlins apologist for no reason, so I’m pointlessly musing here.
I would say that the Marlins might get into the expanded playoff field, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they are “legit”. This is a team that may never (not this year, and not in the next couple years after) score enough runs to break out of .500, although they could do a great job of preventing them.
Maybe, I do like Jazz Chisholm, Lewin Diaz and Isan Diaz though, and think all 3 might just continue improving with more at bats. I also hope they continue giving Jesus Sanchez and Monte Harrison some chances here and there.
All those guys save maybe Lewin Diaz have major offensive questions
Mets have been the unluckiest team with cluster luck and marlins have been the luckiest. It’s possible the marlins are far enough ahead to hold on, but i do think the evidence we have besides W/L suggests the mets are better than the marlins
Todd Frazier didn’t move the needle? You haven’t heard that he’s the clubhouse cut-up I guess.
This made me actually laugh out loud, so thank you <3
When I look at these projections I think to myself “wow there is a really big difference between the number six team and number eight team in terms of quality”.
The ALC is interesting here, 1 win separates division win and 1st wildcard.
It’s interesting because the point where the dropoff happens is different from the AL to the NL. In the AL there’s a pretty clear Top 7, and then the Blue Jays, and then a bunch of other teams. In the NL there’s a pretty clear Top 6 and then you have the Marlins/Brewers/Mets/Reds/etc mess.
It seems interesting to me that the division favorites appear… particularly variable, but that’s probably due to the nonlinear impact of others’ moves on their win probabilities. The Braves would have to do a ton to increase their division win probability by 5%, the Mets would have to do almost nothing to decrease the Braves’ division chances by 5%. I’m curious where the leverage is greatest though.
My guess is at 50%
Safe assumption if it’s a typical Logistic distribution but what if it’s not?
I will here note that it is truly baffling how much effort the Indians have put into getting actively worse each trade deadline and each offseason. If there is a logic to it besides the most cynical “cost-cutting,” then I certainly can’t understand it.
They haven’t been getting worse at each trade deadline and offseason. Usually they do nothing in the offseason (and so get worse) and then trade for outfielders at the deadline to get better. They followed that during the offseason but then at the deadline they decided Clevinger had to go and got prospects (and some iffy depth) for the stretch run. So I see this particular trade deadline is being qualitatively different than previous years.
The entire season is different.
And there’s no telling what 21 will bring.
1- The logic is no secret: their trades are made to extend their competitive window. They move today’s valuable player for tomorrow’s (potential) valuable player. Some of that potential manifests, some doesn’t, but the goal is to be a better a good team over a long period rather than very good for one year or two.
2- Have you looked at the outcome of their salary dumps? Franmil Reyes is the current team leader in HRs (in a leapfrog race with Ramirez) as well as rbi’s and (for now?) in batting average. Bauer was bad last year but good this year. Kluber was bad last year and injured this year but the Rangers don’t look like even good Kluber would’ve moved them past Oakland. And even light-hitting DeShields is being useful. Remember the Gomes dump?
3- The Clevinger outcomes are TBD but so far Plesac and Civelli have actually outpitched him. So if you look at it from a performance POV instead of a reputation view, Cleveland traded their number 4 starter plus a PTBNL and a fourth OF. Its small sample but that’s the entire season.
So yes, money is a factor in all Cleveland trades but it’s not the ONLY factor.
So is, at least twice, clubhouse harmony.
But it’s hard to ignore that there is baseball logic in the moves. Moving Clevinger wasn’t like moving Surcliffe or Sabathia; the cupboard isn’t bare today. They still have Bieber, Civalle, Plesac, Carrasco, and McKenzie. McKenzie is a blue chipper long projected to be at least a three and maybe a two. And sooner or later they needed to find out if he could contribute. Why not now?
And look at what they got; Naylor may not be Reyes redux, but he can hardly be worse than what Allen was giving them. Hedges may not be much better than Perez but he sure is better than Taylor. And Quantril looks to be at a minimum good for bulk innings.
Plus they got three prospects.
Minor improvements this year, but those guys will be around for the long haul.
No, they didn’t get Starling Marte.
But they did more than just dump salary.
The baseball logic might be small budget logic but it makes some sense: as Branch Rickey used to say, it’s better to trade a veteran a year early than a year late.
Indians are a great example of different orgs having different resources. They might think they are better than average at developing pitchers. They might be right. They can use that skill difference to their advantage in acquiring players they may not be as good at developing- I guess outfielders. One interesting problem is it’s possible the same issues that make it hard for them to produce outfielders might make it more difficult for them to evaluate outfielders as well.
I’ve mentioned this before but the last Outfielder that the Indians drafted or signed internationally, who went on produce 10+ WAR for them was Manny Ramirez back in 1991. That’s mind-boggling.
And it’s certainly not from lack of trying: they’ve drafted 9 outfielders in the first round since drafting Manny. The best of those has been Tyler Naquin with his 3,7 career WAR.
Maybe George Valera will help them finally break the streak…
Nolan Jones has been playing OF to prep him for 2021.
Re #3 . Quick question….who has a better FIP this year: Mike Clevinger or Adam Plutko?
Small sample size and all, but yep, Clevinger has been THAT bad…
By modern Cleveland standards, anyway.
By the way, Clevinger is 29, Plutko 28, and the entire Cleveland active rotation is 25 and under, except for Carrasco, who may yet end up swapping with Quantrill.
Only Carrasco remains of the 2017 rotation.
They actually have one of the younger rosters in the league.
If Naylor steps up (he’s 23) they’ll have managed the trick of quietly rebuilding while remaining competitive.
The really should’ve kept Brantley but otherwise their roster management has been pretty effective.
The Indians will absolutely stay competitive and good. It won’t be because of this trade tho.
So all six guys will be misses?
Never said that
I mean it’s 4 starts for clevinger, wouldn’t read into it
It’s not the outcomes alone: it’s his history of dings, his mechanics, and recent performance. He is also a ten year veteran of TJ surgery. A lot of young TJ surgery require a second one eventually. Red flags, all.
It might be small sample size but 4 starts is about 40% of the short season. He might be humming before the playoffs…
…or he might not. SD can afford to give him time to find himself but Cleveland had other options.
This isn’t a matter of one team ripping the other off but rather two teams with different needs finding a match of excesses.
None of those are real reasons, the only thing that is off is the results. There is no reason to think clevinger suddenly lost it cause he had tommy john more than half a decade ago
But there is reason to think that if somebody has to go, Clevinger is the logical choice; he’s older, more fragile, and more expensive. Also flakier, but they put up with him (and Bauer) when they had no choice. Of course, once tbey did they were both gone.
Nice comment. I said it when the trade was made and people disagreed, but Franmil is going to be an offensive superstar. He was one of the unluckiest hitters in the entire MLB last year, and he is a lot more .280 then .240 batting average. All the advanced factors matched as well. This guy scorches the ball. He still hits far too many balls with suboptimal launch angle, but he is hitting .336/388/575. He isn’t a 156 wRC+ guy, but I’d venture he is closer to that then he is to current 117projection. Hell, his career wRC+ is 122 and that is with his absurd bad luck last year. I am not sure what type of hitter he will end up being, if he will end up being a consistent .280 batting average type of guy, or if he will optimize launch angle and lead the league in HRs every year. Either way the Indians got a middle of the order stud under contract till 2025! That is a long time.
Do we know for sure how seeding will go for the playoffs? If the division winners get the 1,2,3 seeds regardless of the record, the Padres and Dodgers both get royally screwed. The Padres would be 4th seed and have to play the Dodgers in the second round. Sucks for both teams really. On top of not really getting any kind of home field advantage, getting the number one seed in either league may just not be worth it.
Winning your division needs a reward.
Otherwise everybody would be playing for the fourth seed.
it doesn’t need to be a reward, the padres are possibly the 2nd best team in the nl and have no shot to get the 2 seed cause they play in same division of best team in baseball
Their chance is to get better.
Which tbey did.
The Braves are cruising and expected to easily win the division with a starting rotation that includes Tommy Milone, Robbie Erlin, and Josh Tomlin. 2020, man, what a time to be alive.
Better than not being. 😉
I assume the 2% improvement in the White Sox Division championship odds are due to Clevinger leaving the division and not expected contributions by Jerrod Dyson.
Not totally.
Zips sees Cleveland Getting worse *and* the Twins not getting better.
Plus Dyson has his uses.
Small changes add up.
Rays’ Erik Neander made a nice comment the other day, “Hey, I’m a fan. I love a good trade at the trading deadline. But we should also recognize the fact that we are very happy with this team.” (Paraphrased, of course.)
Good info. Really good info. Paradigm shifting for most fans. Indeed, it makes me wonder, how long before some makes Dan an offer he couldn’t, in the positive sense, refuse.
One should never say “never,” but I intentionally choose to do what I’m currently doing! I know Jeff said similar, but I can’t imagine wanting to work for a team.
If you do consider going that route, I have to imagine “Brofist” is a fan of yours. Though, of course, he may not be hiring for long.
I might take a job with the Rockies just to blow everyone’s minds.
It would be like Dave Cameron taking a job with the Padres while they are signing Eric Hosmer
the weed: it’s THAT good.
also ironclad job security
Really looking forward to the Pirates getting the #1 pick and then seeing whoever goes #2 have a Hall of Fame career.