Daily Graphing – Kip Wells

I know this guy who drafts Kip Wells every year in his fantasy league thinking that this will be the year he breaks out. I couldn't help but laugh when I saw he led the majors with 18 losses this year. This was partly due to his insanely low run support. It was the lowest in baseball for the past 4 years. Knowing that, the 18 losses don't entirely fall on Kip Wells' shoulders, but it's not like he pitched well either.

BB9

Over the past 4 years he has managed to increase his walks per 9 innings (BB/9) every single year. His BB/9 now sits at a horrible 4.8, the second worst of any starting pitcher. If you're going to lead the league in walks, you better have some serious strikeout potential.

K9

Unfortunately, Kip Wells' career strikeout rate is rather average. He did show some potential in 2004 when he struck out a healthy 7.5 per 9 innings (K/9), but it's probably more realistic to expect a K/9 in the mid 6's. It's also worth mentioning that he used to be one of the top ground ball pitchers, but in the past two years he's only been slightly above average at inducing ground balls.

BB9

I doubt he can repeat his 18 loss season, but if he doesn't do something about his walk rate, he will most likely see an ERA over 5 again. If you're waiting for Kip Wells to break out in a big way, don't hold your breath.





David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.

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