Daily Notes: The PCL’s Very Earliest Top Performances

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards for the Pacific Coast League
2. Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
3. Barely Necessary Footage: A.J. Griffin’s Changeup, As Reference
4. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

SCOUT Leaderboards for the Pacific Coast League
Considered earlier: International League (April 10).

On Monday, in the Notes, we considered the earliest statistical returns from the majors, according to SCOUT. What follows is a very similar thing to that, except for the Triple-A Pacific Coast League.

“What actually is SCOUT?” a reasonable person might ask — to which question the author has provided a (hopefully) reasonable answer here. In brief, however, it’s this: an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production/prevention in instances where small samples are all that’s available.

Below are those same leaderboards, as I say, for the Triple-A Pacific Coast League.

SCOUT Leaderboard: Pacific Coast League Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Pacific Coast League hitters) and above 100 is above average. xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player	Team	Age	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Scott Van Slyke	Dodgers (AAA)	26	29	4	5	5	3.2%	10.4%	19.3%	118
Alex Liddi	Mariners (AAA)	24	35	3	6	6	2.8%	10.7%	19.2%	114
Jamie Romak	Cardinals (AAA)	27	29	3	4	5	2.9%	9.9%	19.3%	113
Mike Zunino	Mariners (AAA)	22	29	4	2	7	3.2%	8.9%	20.6%	111
Alex Castellanos	Dodgers (AAA)	26	29	1	5	2	2.2%	10.4%	17.3%	110
Matt Davidson	Diamondbacks (AAA)	22	32	2	5	6	2.5%	10.3%	19.6%	109
Robbie Grossman	Astros (AAA)	23	31	0	8	4	1.8%	11.8%	18.4%	108
Shane Peterson	Athletics (AAA)	25	25	0	8	4	1.9%	12.1%	19.2%	108
Nolan Arenado	Rockies (AAA)	22	18	2	1	2	2.6%	8.9%	18.7%	108
Travis D’Arnaud	Mets (AAA)	24	23	0	7	3	1.9%	11.7%	18.7%	107

SCOUT Leaderboard: Pacific Coast League Hitters (Age 24 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the Triple-A Pacific Coast League who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player	Team	Age	PA	HR	BB	K	xHR%	xBB%	xK%	SCOUT+
Alex Liddi	Mariners (AAA)	24	35	3	6	6	2.8%	10.7%	19.2%	114
Mike Zunino	Mariners (AAA)	22	29	4	2	7	3.2%	8.9%	20.6%	111
Matt Davidson	Diamondbacks (AAA)	22	32	2	5	6	2.5%	10.3%	19.6%	109
Robbie Grossman	Astros (AAA)	23	31	0	8	4	1.8%	11.8%	18.4%	108
Nolan Arenado	Rockies (AAA)	22	18	2	1	2	2.6%	8.9%	18.7%	108
Travis D’Arnaud	Mets (AAA)	24	23	0	7	3	1.9%	11.7%	18.7%	107
Wilmer Flores	Mets (AAA)	21	28	0	5	1	1.9%	10.5%	16.8%	107
Hunter Morris	Brewers (AAA)	24	28	1	5	6	2.2%	10.5%	20.1%	105
Che-Hsuan Lin	Astros (AAA)	24	20	0	5	3	1.9%	10.8%	19.1%	104
Jimmy Paredes	Astros (AAA)	24	28	1	2	3	2.2%	9.0%	18.1%	104

SCOUT Leaderboard: Pacific Coast League Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Triple-A Pacific Coast League. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Pacific Coast League pitchers) and below 100 is better than average. xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Chris Heston	Giants (AAA)	25	2	2	12.0	51	16	2	23.7%	8.8%	88
Will Smith	Royals (AAA)	23	2	2	10.0	44	15	4	24.0%	9.3%	89
Josh Outman	Rockies (AAA)	28	2	0	6.0	22	10	0	23.5%	8.9%	89
Brian Moran	Mariners (AAA)	24	2	0	3.1	10	7	0	23.1%	9.1%	90
Danny Hultzen	Mariners (AAA)	23	2	2	11.0	46	14	3	23.0%	9.0%	90
Jarred Cosart	Astros (AAA)	23	2	2	9.0	35	12	5	23.2%	9.6%	92
Drew Pomeranz	Rockies (AAA)	24	1	1	5.2	21	8	1	22.3%	9.1%	93
Mike Ekstrom	Athletics (AAA)	29	2	0	3.1	14	7	2	22.6%	9.4%	93
John Gast	Cardinals (AAA)	24	2	2	11.0	40	12	4	22.5%	9.3%	93
Tyler Thornburg	Brewers (AAA)	24	2	2	10.0	40	12	4	22.5%	9.3%	93

SCOUT Leaderboard: Pacific Coast League Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player	Team	Age	G	GS	IP	TBF	K	BB	xK%	xBB%	SCOUT-
Chris Heston	Giants (AAA)	25	2	2	12.0	51	16	2	23.7%	8.8%	88
Will Smith	Royals (AAA)	23	2	2	10.0	44	15	4	24.0%	9.3%	89
Danny Hultzen	Mariners (AAA)	23	2	2	11.0	46	14	3	23.0%	9.0%	90
Jarred Cosart	Astros (AAA)	23	2	2	9.0	35	12	5	23.2%	9.6%	92
Drew Pomeranz	Rockies (AAA)	24	1	1	5.2	21	8	1	22.3%	9.1%	93
John Gast	Cardinals (AAA)	24	2	2	11.0	40	12	4	22.5%	9.3%	93
Tyler Thornburg	Brewers (AAA)	24	2	2	10.0	40	12	4	22.5%	9.3%	93
Brad Hand	Marlins (AAA)	23	2	2	10.0	40	12	5	22.5%	9.5%	93
Yusmeiro Petit	Giants (AAA)	28	2	2	10.2	50	13	3	21.8%	9.0%	94
James Paxton	Mariners (AAA)	24	1	1	4.0	18	6	0	21.4%	9.0%	95

Brief Notes
• Real-live Italian and also Mariners third-base prospect Alex Liddi has never posted a minor-league walk rate above 10% or strikeout rate below 20%. Reason suggests he won’t this season, either — but he is doing it right now, at least.

• Other Mariners prospect, catcher Mike Zunino finished near the top of the Low-A SCOUT batting leaderboard last season, before earning promotion directly to Double-A and hitting well there for 57 plate appearances. His plate discipline has been limited (2:7 BB:K) at Triple-A so far, but the four early home runs tie him for the league lead after a week of play.

• Mets infield prospect Wilmer Flores continues to be (a) entirely young for his levels and (b) the boss of the strike zone.

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Toronto at Detroit | 13:05 ET
“The Blue Jays and Tigers” would be an acceptable response, probably, to the question “Who do you think will win the AL East and Central this year, respectively?” It is, more or less, the answer FanGraphs writers gave collectively to a very similar question at the end of March. In this particular case, Toronto’s Josh Johnson (6.0 IP, 4.67 xFIP in his season debut) faces Detroit’s Doug Fister (5.0 IP, 5.03 xFIP).

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Toronto Radio.

Akron at Bowie | 19:05 ET
Akron and Bowie are the Double-A Eastern League affiliates of the Cleveland Indians and Baltimore Orioles, respectively. Starting for Bowie in this game is right-hander Kevin Gausman. Gausman, 22, was the fourth-overall pick by the Orioles in the 2012 draft out of LSU. He was ranked 15th among all prospects this preseason by our Marc Hulet. Here’s the line from Gausman’s season debut on Saturday: 4.0 IP, 22 TBF, 8 K, 0 BB, 1 HR, 8 H. Akron, for its part features notable middle-infield prospects Jose Ramirez and Ronny Rodriguez, both considered included on Hulet’s top-15 list for the Indians.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: MiLB.TV.

Oakland at Los Angeles AL | 22:05 ET ***MLB.TV Free Game***
A.J. Griffin faces Jason Vargas. Of note regarding Griffin: while his curveball is manifestly terrific, it was actually his changeup that was more valuable last season in terms of run prevention — both on a rate and cumulative basis. According to Brooks Baseball, Griffin threw the pitch 23% of the time to left-handed batters; just 1% of the time to right-handed ones.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Oakland Radio.

Barely Necessary Footage: A.J. Griffin’s Changeup, As Reference
Here’s, for the benefit of the reader, is the best changeup Griffin threw last year while also pitching in front of an above-average center-field camera:

And here, because it exists, is a tighter shot of that same pitch:

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again at the end of April/beginning of May.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, as the author has recently bothered to learn how to convert time zones in Excel. Game presented in order, first, of National League and then American League and, finally, then interleague play.

***Not included below (because no odds were available for them on Wednesday night) are the Cubs-Giants game at 14:20 ET, featuring Ryan Vogelsong and Scott Feldman, and also the Yankees-Indians one at 19:05 ET, featuring Phil Hughes and Zach McAllister.***

Game	Teams	Starters	Line	Win%
22:10	Los Angeles Dodgers	Zack Greinke	1.63	60.2%
ET	San Diego Padres	Jason Marquis	2.46	39.8%
—	—	—	—	—
13:05	Toronto Blue Jays	Josh Johnson	2.18	45.0%
ET	Detroit Tigers	Doug Fister	1.78	55.0%
—	—	—	—	—
19:10	Baltimore Orioles	Chris Tillman	2.06	47.6%
ET	Boston Red Sox	Alfredo Aceves	1.87	52.4%
—	—	—	—	—
22:05	Oakland Athletics	A.J. Griffin	2.19	44.8%
ET	LAA Angels	Jason Vargas	1.78	55.2%
—	—	—	—	—
22:10	Texas Rangers	Justin Grimm	2.36	41.5%
ET	Seattle Mariners	Felix Hernandez	1.68	58.5%
—	—	—	—	—
19:05	Chicago White Sox	Dylan Axelrod	2.43	40.4%
ET	Washington Nationals	Dan Haren	1.65	59.6%