Daily Prospect Notes: 7/25/18
Notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.
Luis Rengifo, MIF, Los Angeles Angels (Profile)
Level: Triple-A Age: 21 Org Rank: NR FV: 45
Line: 3-for-5, 2 2B
Notes
Rengifo slipped through the cracks of our offseason team prospect lists, as he was traded from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles after we had finished the Angels’ writeup but before we had finished the Rays’. It’s turned into a fairly significant failure of process, as Rengifo has traveled three levels throughout the year, walking more than he has struck out while swiping 37 bases. Rengifo profiles as a max-effort utility guy who contributes in many subtle ways. Chone Figgins comps were being made before Rengifo was traded to the Angels and now seem more prescient — if perhaps a bit overzealous, as Rengifo doesn’t have that kind of elite speed.
Josh James, RHP, Houston Astros (Profile)
Level: Triple-A Age: 25 Org Rank: NR FV: 40+
Line: 6 IP, 2 H, 4 BB, 1 R, 11 K
Notes
James’ velocity has ticked up each of the last three years, and he now sits comfortably in the mid-90s with a slider that is plus when it’s located properly. James now has 140 strikeouts in 80 innings split between Double- and Triple-A. His fastball command and breaking-ball quality in the strike zone give pause about his ability to start at the big-league level, but he’s been so dominant that lumping him in with other generic 40 FV relievers is probably too conservative. He probably ends up in a bullpen but could have a multi-inning role.
Brent Rooker, LF/1B, Minnesota Twins (Profile)
Level: Double-A Age: 23 Org Rank: 10 FV: 45
Line: 4-for-5, 2B, HR, BB
Notes
I’ve been clear about my distaste for righty-righty college first-base types because, other than Paul Goldschhmidt, Rhys Hoskins, and Erik Karros, those types of players haven’t yielded big-league value this century. Should Rooker’s .270/.335/.517 line at Double-A this year quell concerns about him as an individual? He’s striking out at a nearly 30% clip as a 23-year-old, and my scout sources regard his breaking-ball recognition as problematic. His performance is encouraging but not so dominant that I’m all in on him as a prospect. Outcomes for prospects like Rooker are binary: they either hit enough to play every day or they don’t and they’re fringe 40-man guys.
Josh Lowe, CF, Tampa Bay Rays (Profile)
Level: Hi-A Age: 20 Org Rank: 10 FV: 45
Line: 3-for-3, 2 BB
Notes
Lowe has exhibited a fairly significant shift in batted-ball profile, his ground-ball rate dropping from 46% to 37%, and it’s possible the hitting environment in the Florida State League has obscured the eventual impact of this change on his profile. It’s possible there’s a good defensive center fielder with in-game power lurking here and we Just don’t know it yet because the FSL isn’t kind to power.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Brent Rooker’s link goes to Andrew Knizner
In regard to Rooker’s write up above:
“my distaste for righty-righty college first-base types because, other than Paul Goldschhmidt, Rhys Hoskins, and Erik Karros”
I don’t see what their position has to do with anything or their right handed swing.
“.270/.335/.517 line at Double-A this year ….. striking out at a nearly 30% clip as a 23-year-old”
Here are the reasons. 23 years old in double-A, .270 BA. .335 OBP. 30% K-rate.
None of that is favorably projectable at the MLB level. Rhys Hoskins is now 25 and his BA is .255 and his OBP is .367.
At 23 in AA Hoskins was .281 BA and .377 OBP. Hoskins SLG was also higher at .566. These numbers did not catapult Hoskins into top prospect status. That did not happen until he improved those numbers slightly at triple-A the following season.
Hoskins is not going to draw MVP votes this year. He didn’t get any consideration for the All-Star team. He’s just been solid. Also, Hoskins is a LF, not a 1B.
Comparing Rooker to Hoskins, Rooker projects to be a below replacement level player.
I don’t really understand the R/R 1B prospect thing. R/R 1B prospects don’t tend to pan out, but there are plenty of R/R actual first basemen who have done very well for themselves. Miguel Cabrera, Jose Abreu, Encarnacion, Mark Trumbo, Albert Pujols, Derrek Lee, Jeff Bagwell…
Which makes you wonder what the issue is with “R/R first basemen” as prospects that makes them not pan out. Clearly, there’s nothing inherent about being R/R that makes someone less likely to succeed at first. I think there’s some kind of weird selection effect going on here. Maybe with lefties who otherwise would be playing 3rd base getting moved to 1st, raising the bar for R/R players there?
A fair amount of those players did not start as 1B (Cabrera, Encarnacion, and Pujols at least), so maybe that’s part of the issue.
I think it’s due in large part to the fact that every 3B and corner OF prospect with fringe defense is a potential 1B prospect as well, and those guys start out as better athletes than the pure 1B prospect, so 1B prospects have to really mash. Throw in that R/R guys have a much harder time becoming elite bats in general, and you’ve got a category where prospects need to break the mold to pan out.
I suspect there’s also something to the idea that righty-throwing 1B are inferior defensively but I’m not sure I’ve seen direct evidence to that effect. It makes intuitive sense though; righties have to turn their bodies to make plays to their right, which are the majority of difficult balls hit in a 1B’s direction.
I think you and oliver avery are hitting on something about marginal athleticism of guys coming up as 1B prospects, and how R/R bats who aren’t 20/30 runners are all playing in a corner OF or 3B. But this says to me the problem isn’t with being R/R, it’s with the sorts of players who get selected into being a 1B prospect. Either they’re a lefty and that’s how they wound up at 1st, or they’re just not very athletic…
But Brent Rooker isn’t super-unathletic or anything. He’s a 40 runner. If the reason why R/R prospects don’t pan out is because they are really unathletic, then it shouldn’t apply to Rooker here.
Josh Lowe was supposed to be one of the better power prospects a could years ago in the draft at third. Then he got shifted to Center, which says a lot….but I do not really see much articles on what he is. The in game power as mentioned from the writer, is what needs to be known and perhaps a different hitting environment will let us know what he is.
Looking at his stats from afar, everything seems to be trending in the right way. Is he a future all-star or not is what I really am hoping to see him become.
As a Mariners fan, reading about a prospect who got away like Rengifo hurts. The Chone Figgins comp didn’t make me feel any better 🙁
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