Kiley McDaniel Chat – 7/25/18

Kiley McDaniel: Sorry for the delay, just wrapping up a call. We’ll be rolling out the updated prospect lists in the coming days, leading up to the deadline.

Kiley McDaniel: ICYMI I did the Trade Value series last week and a think piece on trade value and which teams have the best trade ammunition https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/which-teams-could-even-trade-for-lindo…

Jeb: What is Travis Swaggerty’s upside?

Kiley McDaniel: 50 hit, 60 power, 50 D in CF. Could be a 3-4 win guy

Guest: Think about Jalen Beeks Rays just acquired

Kiley McDaniel: Just tweeted out some thoughts on that deal, TB’s competitive situation and Beeks specifically in  a thread here

 

Kiley McDaniel

@kileymcd

 

New Rays LHP Jalen Beeks has taken a unique path. He was a pretty generic smaller lefty at Arkansas w/fringe to ave… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…

25 Jul 2018

Mike: While recognizing I’m getting way ahead of myself, how does Atlanta handle the CF position in the future? Inciarte is a gold glover, seems like most scouting reports agree Acuña can handle it, Pache’s scouting reports are hyping elite defense and Drew Waters is off to a crazy offensive start.

Kiley McDaniel: I would imagine when Pache is ready, Inciarte’s deal is winding down and he’s more of a 2-win guy. Acuna and Waters are both fine in CF, enough power to profile as above average defenders in a corner.

Skye McRocky Pup: Have you had a chance to see Logan Davidson? And if so, do you see him being a top pick next year?

Kiley McDaniel: Missed him this spring due to a rainout but have talked to a half dozen guys that have seen him the last few months. Sounds like chance for above power, can run a little, chance to stick at short, question is on how much contact there will be

Kiley McDaniel: Any questions about 2019, 2020 or 2021 draft classes, THE BOARD is updated for all three classes and will be expanded in the second half of August after the summer stuff ends https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2019mlb&type=0&pos=all…

OddBall Herrera: Not a huge Beeks fan, but I have to think that even if they get several years of a 4/5 starter out of him in exchange for 2 months of an injury prone guy whose results never match his peripherals, that’s a bin win

Kiley McDaniel: And that’s a good example of how to use excess payroll for a small market club that isn’t necessarily a contender. Don’t just sign a guy to sign a guy and burn the money in a year where you don’t need it. Sign an injured/speculative Wilson Ramos and Eovaldi, frontload the money and have the performance/trade value come in the future when you have a better chance to be competing or the gamble on creating trade value can pay off.

PhilG: Do u think FV does a fine job catching a prospect’s future fantasy upside, or do u think FV needs tweaking for fantasy purposes?

Kiley McDaniel: It’s focused on the whole player, so there’s plenty of defense/position mixed in there that doesn’t matter as much for fantasy. But if you want more just hit/power/speed types, we have a sortable board of tools for you to sort until you find the sort of guys you want https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx?draft=2018prospect&type=1&po…

the dude: Its has been mentioned that predicting health/preventing injuries maybe be the next market inefficiency that a teams try to exploit do you know of any teams that have tried to tackle the issue of UCL problems at a genetic level? Ethics are obviously a massive concern but I was curious if any baseball department has turned to genetics to try to help predict health issues. Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: There would definitely be some answers there, don’t know that any club has tried it, though.

The Old Buccaneer: How do you compare what the O’s got for Britton to the Rays getting Beeks for Eovaldi?

Kiley McDaniel: a low 45, 40 and 35+ for Britton vs. a 45 for Eovaldi. Not super different.

John: Hi Kiley, is Josh Naylor a better-in-fantasy guy? He doesn’t seem to show up on the lists.

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah it’s all hit/power with not much in the way of speed/defense/position

Charles: Any comps for Adonis Medina? What’s his ceiling look like?

Kiley McDaniel: Flashes three plus pitches and average command, which is, if he keeps doing that, #2 starter stuff. So go check out the 12th to 30th best starters in baseball–he could be that good. Maybe Nola’s stuff but a little less feel?

Kiley McDaniel: Obviously doesn’t look much like Nola physically, but that’s how I graded Nola’s pitches when he was 21.

Ryan from Pittsburgh: Hey Kiley, given your experience grading prospects, I’m wondering if you have a philosophy on team building. For example, the Pirates seem to be stuck in a never ending cycle of “almost being there”. Do you think relying too much on prospect development is the right way to go or do you feel using those prospects as assets to acquire sure things is a better path to a championship. I’m starting to wonder if Huntington is simply trying to keep his job and “hope” for the best instead of trying to build a legitimate contender. Thanks!

Kiley McDaniel: There’s a lot of different ways to handle this. If you’re a bigger market club, you can shoot to have a wave of premium prospects come up around the same time, extend the best ones, and have the money to supplement them. The Cubs did this correctly, the Mets did not, the Royals did it with less money and weren’t really able to extend any of the guys (except Alex Gordon).

Kiley McDaniel: If you’re a smaller market club, you don’t have the margin for error to hope most of your premium prospects turn into guys at the same time AND to also spend to supplement, so you shoot to have waves of guys and depth in the farm so you can supplement when a core materializes. TB, OAK, PIT, etc. do a version of this and are perpetually looking to both buy and sell, looking to grab value where it is to push them to either the contend/rebuild end of the spectrum. Usually an amazing deal doesn’t appear and you keep straddling the middle, somewhat passively seeing how your luck plays out.

Kiley McDaniel: Wrote about this some here https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-the-pirates-are-forced-to-value-pl…

Kiley McDaniel: and here https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-status-of-the-scouts-vs-stats-deba…

Kiley McDaniel: and am probably going to write about it again soon

Kiley McDaniel: there is definitely some “these choices all seem similar, i’ll pick the one that’s most likely to get me a contract extension” in a few of those general approaches.

Kiley McDaniel: Which I can’t really fault. I’m lucky to be able to do a job like this full time, but if I was making millions, I’d like to keep making millions. Self preservation is a tasty trade tiebreaker

Pio: Does/should Tatis start 2019 in Triple-A?

Kiley McDaniel: If not start there, then probably gets there pretty soon when it’s clear he’s back to normal

Bryan: I had a question about Suarez on the trade value list. With him having 7.5 years of team control, I was surprised he didn’t rank higher. Is the idea that his talent level is just lower than those ranked above him? For example, Freddie Freeman will make about the same in his 3.5 years of team control, as Suarez will make in 7.5.

Kiley McDaniel: Shorter track record, already at his peak, so most of those years are buying the decline. Still at a nice discount, though.

Kiley McDaniel: Or, projecting the decline given how hitters usually age. Maybe he’ll get better each of the next 7 years?

Chris: What are your thoughts on the Padres pursuing Archer? Syndergaard?

Kiley McDaniel: I get the impulse to get that frontline guy with years of control to infuse into your homegrown situation, but I think it’s a little early. Just like it was too early for ATL to trade for Sale, Archer, Gray 12-18 months ago. 2 of those have declined to where one of the prospects you would’ve traded may be able to match them going forward for even less money, would have essentially wasted a year of Sale. I think it’s too early but the concept of speeding up the rebuild/stabilizing the staff isn’t wrong. And rebuilds aren’t linear, as ATL has proven this year.

Troy: Yesterday you tweeted that it isn’t very difficult to learn about spin rate, tunneling etc. Do you have any links to articles that could help explain these concepts? Thank you

Kiley McDaniel: I’m planning on writing more about this after the deadline since I’m interested in educating people interested in learning this stuff as well

Kiley McDaniel: For now, Petriello’s primers are good places to start

Kiley McDaniel: on fastballs/spin rate: https://www.mlb.com/news/what-statcast-spin-rate-means-for-fastballs/c…

Kiley McDaniel: on curveballs/spin rate: https://www.mlb.com/news/how-spin-rate-affects-curveball-outcomes/c-16…

Jacob: I have a gut feeling that if Jorge Guzman was still in the Yankees farm he would be developing better and faster than he currently is with the Marlins. Has his chances to become a big league SP lessened being with the Marlins?

Kiley McDaniel: I mean he’ll still get to start in the big leagues given the talent and pedigree from the trade, short of his arm falling off, but I generally agree that NYY is among the best at this and MIA was one of the worst, is now probably bottom half with a new group installed, but it’s still early so the hope is they work their way into the top half sometime soon.

Ford: If a team is still under the penalty for international spending, why do they get slots larger than $30k (or whatever the limit is)? Doesn’t this just incentivize them to trade their bigger slots? Like in the Familia trade, the A’s traded a $1M int’l slot, but since they can’t use the full $1M, it seems like it would have less value to them

Kiley McDaniel: San Diego spends the full pool on as many 300K guys as they can get. Baltimore has no limits and typically trades much of their money away. Lots of ways to do it down there.

James: Why isn’t Corbin viewed as a top 10 starter?  4th in FIP, 2nd in xFIP, 8th in K/9, 7th in K/BB, and even 14th in GB%!  Seems like the total package to me.  Is it just that he wasn’t a top prospect and that he’s hitting his stride a bit late in his career?

Kiley McDaniel: Lack of elite track record is a legitimate question when declaring someone among the best in baseball at something off of a couple of years that don’t really square with the rest of their career. That said, many thought this was possible for Corbin, so it isn’t completely shocking

Kiley McDaniel: I also don’t see lots of rankings of the best starters in baseball, so maybe some people think he is?

Christopher: What are your thoughts on Francisco Mejia and staying at C?

Kiley McDaniel: Seems likely to get an extended look at catcher in the bigs for SD. Is probably never an above average defensive catcher, but should be playable, whether it’s a 45 or 50.

Pickle Nick: I know it’s ways off but any info on who the top three July 2 free agents for 2019 are at this point?

Kiley McDaniel: Dominican SS Robert Puason is the best guy for 2019, maybe the best guy in the last few years. Likely ends up with the A’s.

Michael Anthony: Personally, do you prefer Hedges or Mejia long term?

Kiley McDaniel: Mejia, but super different sorts of players and you don’t have to pick one over the other. Could easily play them both and move Mejia around. Not convinced either is ever a perennial 3+ win type guy.

Dan: What is going right for the Padres

Kiley McDaniel: Well the farm system is probably the best in baseball, so that’s good

Kiley McDaniel: I say probably since I haven’t investigated this in the last month, but sure seems like they will be when I do.

Bo: Seems like a pretty light return for Eovaldi, no? A 45 FV LHP in AAA – why didn’t the Braves spring for him at a low cost?

Kiley McDaniel: Braves don’t have a directly comparable guy. Maybe Tucker Davidson or Kyle Muller? Would Braves fans do that deal?

Zack Autry: Hey Kiley! Thanks for chatting!

Kiley McDaniel: Like the positivity!

Mets fan…for now: In light of the return for Britton, is the return Familia still looking so terrible?

Kiley McDaniel: Didn’t think either trade was terrible, just weird timing on the Familia trade. Could go to the teams that lost out on Britton now, maybe get a little more, almost certainly wouldn’t get less.

Kiley McDaniel: The optics became worse when the timing was a little off, the return was just okay, they didn’t eat money so it appeared like a salary dump (even if it wasn’t), Ricco said the int’l money would be used for lower-profile int’l guys, there’s 3 GMs that many thought would muddy the waters and make for lack of communication/cohesion that would lead to weird decisions…right when the Thor and Cespedes injuries were weird and handled oddly, respectively. Just not a good PR look having that all happen at once, when only a few of those were “bad” moves.

Kiley McDaniel: And in NY, the PR stuff matters, even though it shouldn’t

Kiley McDaniel: And the Wilpons haven’t earned much tolerance from an antsy fanbase, so I can’t fault the fans for being mad

Hank: Between Daz Cameron and Bryan Reynolds, who is safer and who has more upside?

Kiley McDaniel: Daz has the upside edge, comparable safety really. Reynolds a little better chance to not flame out but I don’t think either do.

Sandy Eggo: What is Austin Allen’s future now that Mejia is in the system? He’s mashing at AA and supposedly has made some big strides defensively this year.

Kiley McDaniel: Still just okay defensively, but playable. He isn’t a huge factor for how you handle Mejia, more of a complementary piece

2-D: I’ve been sitting near the scouts lately at my local AAA games and have noticed the KBO is well represented. Is that pretty common throughout AAA?

Kiley McDaniel: and NPB as well. That’s where they typically grab American players from

Carl Pastashio: Can we start dreaming that Alex Kirilloff will pull a Juan Soto?

Kiley McDaniel: Wouldn’t plan on a Juan Soto happening again any time soon

Will: What would it take for the Braves to land a Chris Archer type? Would a trio of Anderson, Allard, and izzy Wilson get it done?

Kiley McDaniel: Somewhere in that area, probably. Wouldn’t do that if I were ATL.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: I could believe that the Padres asked about Chris Archer, but Rosenthal’s report that they are really trying to get him are surprising to me. Both teams want to be competitive at the same time. Maybe the Rays would be happy with something around Tatis, but the Padres wouldn’t. Maybe the Dads would be willing to trade Gore, but it would take a lot more than that for the Rays to give up a few cost-controlled years of Archer when they rightfully expect to be competitive as soon as next year. Do you see a match here?

Kiley McDaniel: Gore would not be in that deal

Kiley McDaniel: Morejon, I could see as the headliner

Nick: How does Alonso compare to Rhys?

Kiley McDaniel: Much less athletic, a little more power, maybe a little less hit tool.

Seranthony : Who is the best pitcher in the Phillies entire organization after Nola and Arrieta?

Kiley McDaniel: Sixto Sanchez

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: When do you put future inner-circle hall of famer lock Wander Franco into a more advanced level?

Kiley McDaniel: I see this hype train is still rational

Jimmy: Do you know if Eric has caught Cole Roederer live in AZ? Realize it’s a small sample but he’s putting up some pretty silly numbers. He’s currently got an OPS over 1.000 which in of itself is great but he also seems to be a legit CF. I’m curious if the scouting matches the results.

Kiley McDaniel: Saw him some as an amateur. Chance for above hit/power/speed in CF but was banged up some in the spring. Scouts that love him (CHC was probably the highest on him) think there’s some Benintendi in there, others think he’s more of a 4th OF or low end starter. Definite wait and see candidate

Anthony: Re. the Mets: you hear executives talk about building an organizational culture sometimes. Is that just media speak for “we’d like talented players,” or is there something more substantive to that that teams like NY just don’t have?

Kiley McDaniel: Orgs with no direction almost never have good org culture. Some successful orgs also don’t have a good culture. When you’re doing everything right, that sort of thing just follows.

Jake Junis Priest: Eric describes the Britton return as “light” for peak Britton but solid for real-life Britton. Do you agree?

Kiley McDaniel: Yeah, they would’ve gotten a lot more from HOU 12 months ago and also got unlucky with the injury. This is why you don’t hold premium trade assets when you probably won’t be contending. They almost never get more valuable.

Jimmy: Do you think Javy Baez still has any growth left in his hitting profile or is this probably as good as he gets?

Kiley McDaniel: I’m not sure he’s even this good. Crazy high BABIP and crazy low BB% isn’t exactly screaming sustainable.

Jason: Some have said recently that the Indians trading Mejia shows they have soured on him. Do you think that played a part? I just figured bullpen was a big weakness for them and they jumped at the opp to improve it and Mejia also didn’t really have a spot to play at right now.

Kiley McDaniel: Tend to agree

Todd: Sixto Sanchez signed for 35K, he hasn’t played in the bigs yet so if he flames out or gets injured will he be financially screwed? Do prospects make money off of their prospect status?

Kiley McDaniel: Nope! Some smaller endorsements, occasionally get (illegal) spending cash from unscrupulous agents.

Kiley McDaniel: That’s why small bonus types are more likely to sign extensions that high bonus guys

Reb Aharon Dayan: Who’s comparable to Beeks in the Yankees system? Seems like this should lower the cost for a guy like Happ right?

Kiley McDaniel: We have Freicer Perez, Chance Adams and Domingo Acevedo in that area, Loaisiga above it.

Ryan from Pittsburgh: Given where you listed DeGrom in your Top 50, do you think it would make sense for the Pirates to acquire a guy like DeGrom, who has a few years of control, and if so, do they have the farm system to do it? NH would likely never do something like this, but doesn’t it make sense to add a sure thing ace while you have Marte, Polanco and Taillon for the plethora of B level prospects they have?

Kiley McDaniel: PIT values their top prospects like TB and OAK do–they will almost never trade those types. Worth far more to them than mid or large market clubs.

Nick : When will TV broadcasts incorporate advanced stats like wRC+ or fWAR?

Kiley McDaniel: When the close minded old guys stop being the majority of those calling and watching the games

Ted: A week ago, a Baseball Prospectus writer wrote that literally scouts have no place in the Majors and that their role is solely useful for minor leagues and amateurs. Is that really accurate? Don’t scouts have usefulness when data gets scarce or providing underlying reasons why or why not performance is what it is?

Kiley McDaniel: Makeup info can normally only be gotten by experienced scouts in the ballpark with decades-long relationships with the right people. Also telling you a few games before stats stabilize that a guy doesn’t look right. That info is often key in the huge, tens or hundreds of millions dollars of value type of trades that dictate if guys lose their job. That take, if it’s being represented accurately, would be an early inductee into the new chat feature THE INTERNATIONAL HOUSE OF BAD TAKES (TM).

2020: RON PAUL.

Kiley McDaniel: That’s all for this week, bring your best IHOBT nominees next week.