Daily Prospect Notes: Conference Tournament Preview Part I

There are very few Monday games on the minor league baseball schedule this year, so when the opportunity presents itself, I plan on mixing it up for the Tuesday editions of Daily Prospect Notes. Today begins conference tournament play for a large portion of Division I baseball. Much of the week’s action can be seen if you have an ESPN+ subscription, which is $6 a month. Absent a cable subscription, I don’t think that gets you the SEC or ACC games until the last few make their way onto the main ESPN channels, but between what you will see of the conference tourneys plus the entirety of the College World Series, I think you’d get your money’s worth if you ponied up for the next two months, and I’m not paid to say that.

This is also a convenient time to direct your attention to college baseball. The regular-season narratives are now tied up in neat little packages that will be presented on the broadcasts throughout the week, so you’ll be brought up to speed and know what the stakes are pretty quickly. The conference tournaments will help shape the eventual field of 64 teams in national postseason play, and they’re also heavily-scouted events due to the high concentration of talent. The way players perform here and during the College World Series carries a little extra weight in the draft room because it’s the last time they’re seen before the draft, though that may be less true this year since the later draft dates leave room for more private workouts than in a typical year.

Below I have brief previews for the tournaments that begin today. I’ll have another edition tomorrow for the other conferences, with a focus on the groupings with prospects and the ones people can watch. I’ll also be citing work from D1Baseball and Baseball America a lot. They are both indispensable resources for college coverage.

American Athletic Conference
Link to Bracket Link to Stats and Standings
Location: Clearwater, FL
Format: 8-team Double Elim
Top Team(s): East Carolina
Top Prospect(s): Gavin Williams, SP, East Carolina

All eight teams in the conference (East Carolina, Tulane, Wichita State, Cincinnati, Central Florida, South Florida, Houston, and Memphis) get to play in the tournament. East Carolina is in a tier of its own in this conference and is not only likely to get an at-large bid if they don’t win the tournament, but both D1 and BA have them projected as a regional host school (i.e. one of the top 16 teams in the country). Pirates ace Gavin Williams pitched last Thursday, which would put him on pace to pitch on normal rest in the winner’s bracket again this Thursday, assuming the Pirates win their first game against Memphis. Williams is a thick, physical, four-pitch righty who has been up to 100 but sits more 94-96. He has much better command of his mid-80s slider than he does his fastball, the curveball is a loopy change of pace, and you’ll barely see a changeup. He’s in the second round mix. East Carolina second baseman Connor Norby hit .420 this year and buoyed his draft position as few other college hitters had great years, though scout opinions of Norby are still mixed even though he performed at an elite level. They take on Memphis Tuesday, led by physical power hitting “catcher” Hunter Goodman, who has 21 bombs in 53 games this year.

Watch second-seeded Tulane. They’ve had a good enough year to claim an at-large bid in the CWS even if they don’t win the tournament. Pitcher Braden Olthoff (also on pace to go Thursday) has been dominant for Tulane — 81 K, 11 BB, 72 IP — despite having one of the uglier deliveries in baseball, because his slider command is great. Central Florida freshman infielder Alex Freeland is a prospect to watch for 2023.

ACC
Link to Bracket Link to Stats and Standings
Location: Charlotte, NC
Format: 12-team Pool Play, 3-team Pools w/ each winner to semis
Top Team(s): Notre Dame
Top Prospect(s): Henry Davis, C, Louisville / Adrian Del Castillo, C, Miami / Alex Binelas, 1B, Louisville

Twelve of the 14 ACC teams make the postseason tournament, but this year the two left out feature first round talents in Sal Frelick (Boston College) and Ryan Cusick (Wake Forest), who should both come off the board during the first half of round one. This is a deep conference without a heavy-hitting national contender, and many of the teams backed into the postseason. They could get as many as eight teams into the national tournament, though. Top-seeded Notre Dame is lead by husky masher Niko Kavadas and his 16 homers. He’s walking at a 22% clip. The Irish are likely to host a regional. Louisville’s performance this week could dictate whether Davis, Alex Binelas and several of the other talented but frustrating Louisville Cardinals get to solidify their stock in the CWS, as D1 has them on the national postseason bubble. Both D1 and BA have Clemson (watch underclass first baseman Caden Grice, who I wrote about here) and Virginia (lots of draftable starters) on the bubble, as well. Miami (Adrian Del Castillo should go round one and they have talented but inconsistent freshman arms Victor Mederos and Alejandro Rosario), North Carolina State (catcher Luca Tresh is an early-round prospect), upstart Pitt, and North Carolina are all likely at-large bids.

Missouri Valley Conference
Link to Bracket Link to Stats and Standings
Location: Carbondale, IL
Format: 8 teams qualify, seeds 5-8 play in to 6-team double elim bracket
Top Team(s): Dallas Baptist
Top Prospect(s): Dominic Hamel, RHP, Dallas Baptist

It’s a big week for Indiana State, which is on the bubble according to D1, and was an at-large three seed on BA’s last Field of 64 projection. If upsets occur in other conferences and some unexpected teams fall into automatic bids, they might be squeezed out. Dominic Hamel sits 90-95 and has a plus, upper-70s slurve.

SEC
Link to Bracket Link to Stats and Standings
Location: Hoover, AL
Format: 12 teams, top 4 get a bye, bottom 8 play in to double elim
Top Team(s): Vanderbilt, Mississippi St, Arkansas
Top Prospect(s): Leiter/Rocker / Jud Fabian, CF, Florida / Connor Prielipp, LHP, Alabama (2022) / Dylan Crews, OF, LSU (2023)

This is always the big daddy conference tournament. Perhaps I’ll draw some eyre from Rocky Top for not including Tennessee in the top teams, as their record is just as good as the three I listed. I simply think the others are more talented. You know about Vanderbilt’s top pitchers but also keep an eye on young freshman Christian Little, who has a chance to go high a few years from now. Kevin Goldstein and I have written about center fielder Enrique Bradfield a few times — he’s a must-watch player.

Arkansas has 2022 first round prospect Robert Moore, a fiery, switch-hitting second baseman with sneaky pop. Starter Peyton Pallette (mid-90s, huge spin, plus athlete, plus frame) also has a shot to come off the board early next year. They have long relief ace Kevin Kopps, who touts one of the bets sliders in college baseball and will probably be drafted pretty early this year even though he’s a reliever who doesn’t throw all that hard. Freshman reliever Jaxon Wiggins was 94-98 with a plus slider early in the season but has slipped of late. First baseman Brady Slavens, center fielder Christian Franklin, and right fielder Cayden Wallace have big power.

For Mississippi State, watch outfielder Tanner Allen, who reminds me of Corey Dickerson and is a 2021 draft guy. Catcher Logan Tanner, a 2022 draft prospect, is probably the best all-around player on the team with plus power and arm strength. The Bulldog pitching staff — Christian MacLeod‘s sneaky vertical movement stuff, Will Bednar’s huge tailing fastball, mean-mugging power reliever Landon Sims — is built for postseason play thanks to its depth.

Other prospect to watch: Alabama’s Peyton Wilson, a little second baseman with speed and sneaky pop; Georgia’s hard-throwing righty Jonathan Cannon, who began the year on the IL with mononeucleosis; Florida right-hander Tommy Mace, who was not drafted last year even though he was eligible; and Tennessee second baseman Max Ferguson, who had a terrible year after looking incredible in 2020. Basically anywhere you look this week, there are pro prospects on the field in Hoover.

D1 and BA have some combination of Alabama (Connor Prielipp was hurt most of the year and has been back as a reliever), LSU, and Georgia as being on the bubble.





Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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JacobM
2 years ago

Are you also going to talk about pro prospects from leagues which have cancelled their postseason tournaments, like the Big Ten?