Daily Prospect Notes: Top 100 Prospects List Update

Kevin Goldstein and I have updated the pro portion of the Top 100, which means we quickly reviewed the placement of players in the 50 FV tier and above, and considered who was not yet in those tiers but should be based on how they’ve looked during the first month of the 2021 season. I still have three total org audits to do — Milwaukee, Oakland and the Cubs — before I start peeling graduates off the list. Those will be completed shortly. You can find the updated list here.

Also, if you missed it, Kevin and I updated our draft rankings and posted a Mock Draft on Monday.

The lone change up near the top of the 100 is Riley Greene moving into the top 20; he’s in the mix with several other similarly-aged players with the talent to be consistent All-Stars, like Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, and Corbin Carroll.

DL Hall moved into the 55 FV tier on the strength of his stuff. He’s still walking a fairly high rate of opposing batters but just on the strength of his three plus pitches, could be a Haderesque relief weapon even if he can’t start.

Triston Casas and Noelvi Marte, who a scout told us took one of the best BPs he’s seen from a teenager, both moved into the 55 FV tier. Casas’ move is significant because it’s very rare for no-doubt 1B/DH types to slot above the 50s. We like him more than we did the prospect versions of Rhys Hoskins and Pete Alonso. Marte has a chance to move into the cluster of players that Riley Greene has entered by continuing to perform on paper, especially if he gets a mid-season promotion and keeps hitting.

Hunter Greene has shown no ill-effects after the odd posture and delivery change he exhibited at last year’s alt site. He’s healthy and throwing as hard as ever. He moves up from close to 100th overall to close to 50th overall, but remains in the 50 FV tier. His breaking ball quality and command are both still unexceptional.

We split the difference on Alek Manoah. Kevin has him inside the top 40, while I have him closer to the back of the 100 near pitchers we both agree have significant relief risk.

Jarren Duran’s swing change has borne fruit in a significant way when it comes to his batted ball output. His instincts in center field are still not great but he has improved to the point of viability.

Other players moving into the back of the list include Cade Cavalli, Roansy Contreras, Shea Langeliers, Jordan Walker, Dillon Dingler, and Brett Baty. Cavalli is putting to bed notions that his four-start stretch of dominance in college was just a fluke. First round college arms should be paving over A-ball hitters but Cavalli has been utterly dominant and is reinforcing confidence that his 2020 breakout at Oklahoma (coming off injury) can be sustained. He also showed up to camp with way more arm strength than expected and that, too, has held. Langeliers fits with Taylor Walls on the list: great defenders at premium positions who have one note offensive profiles suitable at their position. Walker moves in next to fellow elite power prospect Oneil Cruz. Dingler is an ultra-athletic catcher with power. Baty trades places with Mark Vientos as corner bats who need to perform, which Baty has.

Hector Yan, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
Level & Affiliate: Hi-A Tri City  Age: 22   Org Rank: 17   FV: 40
Line: 6 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 0 R, 10 K

Notes:
This was, by far, Yan’s best outing of the year (he’s had several open mic-level bombs) and came after extended rest. Remember, he was put on on the Angels 40-man after a strong 2019 season and then immediately started to regress. Last night’s start came against a Spokane team featuring lots of good Rockies hitting prospects.

Rodolfo Castro, 2B, Pittsburgh Pirates
Level & Affiliate: Double-A Altoona  Age: 22   Org Rank: 34   FV: 40
Line: 2-for-4, HR, 2 K, CS

Notes:
This was another prospect Kevin and I discussed for placement in the 50 FV tier based on the strength of his on-paper start, as Castro has hit .301/.351/.534 so far this year. He’s a sweet-swinging, switch-hitting infielder with power from both sides of the plate, but his plate discipline has long been an issue and remains one. There’s risk of Castro bottoming out against big league pitching because of his tendency to chase but he has impact talent and is close to the big leagues, so he should be in a FV tier of impact even if we’re skeptical of him being a true 50.

Jose Miranda, 3B, Minnesota Twins
Level & Affiliate: Double-A Wichita  Age: 22   Org Rank: 20   FV: 40
Line: 3-for-6, HR

Notes:
Speaking of guys who like to swing a lot, Miranda is in a similar bucket as Castro in that he has a special offensive skill (his feel for contact rather than raw power) that is undercut by an aggressive approach. Miranda is playing all over the infield, fitting best at 1B/3B and less so at 2B/SS. The Wichita affiliate is new and we don’t know what the offensive environment there is like or whether it’s inflating Miranda’s power output. He’s already approaching his career high for single-season homers.