Dallas Keuchel’s High-Wire Act

Just after sunrise on August 6, 1974, Philippe Petit began his walk across a 200-foot stretch of wire spanning New York’s Twin Towers. He and his assistants had prepared the wire overnight, using a crossbow to connect the one-inch-wide walk way from rooftop to rooftop, 1,350 feet above Lower Manhattan. Petit completed eight walks that morning before being ordered down, and arrested, by New York City police. The Telegraph (U.K.) recounted the daring feat.

[Petit] felt so confident that he took to showboating… The Frenchman is shown [via photograph] lying down on the wire while balancing his bar across his chest with his arms well away. At one point the 24-year-old hung by his heels….

He later said: “To me, it’s really so simple: life should be lived on the edge. You have to exercise rebellion, to refuse to tape yourself to the rules, to refuse your own success, to refuse to repeat yourself, to see every day, every year, every idea as a true challenge. Then you will live your life on the tightrope.”

Petit’s chosen line of work is not for everyone. That said, there might be some wisdom in his view on how to live regardless of your profession.

Nearer ground level this year — in fact, on a pitching mound for the Astros — Dallas Keuchel is conducting his own tightrope walk. A former seventh-round draft pick with just an 89-mph fastball, Keuchel has always been compelled to find ways to adapt and push boundaries. Last month, FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan noted Keuchel’s latest makeover — namely, that the left-hander is going “Full Ziegler” on us.

Wrote Sullivan:

Nearly everything has been at the knees or below, just like how Ziegler works, and at least to this point, it’s been working. As usual, I’ve made some use of Baseball Savant. Using the filter options, I selected the five lowest pitch-zone areas. There are 220 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 100 pitches in both 2016 and 2017. Among them, last year, Keuchel had the No. 31 low-pitch rate. This year, he has the No. 2 low-pitch rate, slightly behind only teammate Luke Gregerson. Keuchel’s low-pitch-rate increase of 17 percentage points is the fourth-greatest, and he already worked mostly down. Now it’s like he doesn’t even pay attention to the other spots.

Keuchel is off to an excellent start this season with the Ziegler approach, producing a 5-0 record and 1.21 ERA. But I wonder how much longer this success can last.

Keuchel is the anti-Bartolo Colon, the anti-Ivan Nova. He’s throwing the fewest pitches in the strike zone, as defined by Statcast, this season (35.6%). And this continues a trend: by frequency, Keuchel threw the 10th-fewest pitches in the zone last season (41.6%) and second lowest in 2015 (37.6%), trailing only Francisco Liriano. James Shields and Liriano ranked 1-2 in owning the lowest zone rate last season. Yikes!

Liriano is a troubling name with which to be associated.

FanGraphs alum August Fagerstrom wrote last season about beating Liriano in theory. His plan, in short, relied simply on swinging less often. Three-and-a-half months after that post, the Pirates traded Liriano at the deadline following a horrendous first half for the left-hander — in part because the Pirates thought the NL had finally caught up to Liriano’s chase- and out-of-zone-dependent approach.

Keuchel is a much different pitcher than Liriano; he has superior command and inferior velocity. But I wonder how long a pitcher can have success while living outside of the zone so often, particularly without elite velocity. Batters, in theory, should have a long relative look at Keuchel’s stuff.

How has it worked for others? In examining the qualified pitchers who have thrown the fewest pitches in the strike zone since 2014, the leaderboard is a mixed bag.

What’s strange is that batters have seemingly made no adjustment to Keuchel. Their swing rate against him remains a constant 43.8% after one month this season, in line with a 43.8% swing rate last year and marks of 44.1% and 44.2% in 2015 and 2014. Batters have decreased their swing rate against Liriano from 45.1% in 2013, to 42.5% last year and 39.5% early this season.

Keuchel’s two-seam fastball location last season…

And this season…

Keuchel has excelled at surviving at the edges, and maybe he’s even further refining his ability to reside there. But now he’s really pushing the edge, and the book against him should be well known by all AL opponents.

While Keuchel is more often around the zone than a Liriano, there’s still another variable to consider. Because even if batters keep on swinging while Keuchel throws nearly two balls out of the zone for every one in it, there’s another problem: strand rate.

Keuchel’s left-on-base rate entering May is 98.7% — 98.7%! — which somehow ranks second in the game behind Ervin Santana.

Keuchel has allowed 37 baserunners this season, but Danny Espinosa is the only runner to score on a non-homer. The other five runs allowed by Keuchel include four solo homers and a runner of his responsibility plated against the Astros’ bullpen.

Keuchel’s career LOB rate of 73.2% suggests he’ll soon be allowing more runs than he has to date. His run prevention was due for a correction but it could be a significant one.

Keuchel’s extreme avoidance of the middle of strike zone and ability to induce ground balls — along with a breaking ball that misses a fair amount of bats — have made him a quality major-league starting pitcher. But Keuchel is even more extreme this year and has beneftted from an extreme amount of good fortune (including .186 opponent BABIP). After his 4.55 ERA and 3.87 FIP of last season, one wondered if the league was starting to catch up. And one wonders how long success from this latest iteration of Keuchel, who has lost a tick of stuff, can endure.

Keuchel is refusing to repeat himself. He is becoming and even more extreme version of himself. It will be interesting to see how long he walk this tightrope.