Dalton Pompey: Center Fielder of the Present?

Following the departures of free agents Melky Cabrera and Colby Rasmus, the Toronto Blue Jays were down two-thirds of last year’s opening day outfield. They filled one of these holes when they traded for Michael Saunders, but have opted to go the internal route in filling the other, turning to the inexperienced duo of Dalton Pompey and Kevin Pillar to handle center field duties.

Pompey easily has the brighter future of the two. Kiley McDaniel ranked the 22-year-old 80^th in our top 200 list, giving him a Future Value of 50, which equates to an average everyday player. Pillar, on the other hand, hasn’t done much of anything in parts of two seasons with the Blue Jays, and at 26, he’s unlikely to get much better than he currently is. Non-roster veterans Chris Dickerson, Ezequiel Carrera and Caleb Gindl are also theoretically in the center field mix, but are likely in camp to provide depth more than anything. Given his competition, the starting center field job is Pompey’s to lose this spring.

Pompey made quite a bit of noise in the minors last year. After a cromulent .261/.358/.394 performance in the Midwest League in 2013, the 21-year-old vaulted himself onto the prospect map with a four-level season in last year; five if you include his stint in the Arizona Fall League. Despite moving hastily through the minors, Pompey raked at every stop along the way, mashing .317/.392/.469 across three levels before ending the year with a 17 game cup of coffee with the Blue Jays as a September call up.

KATOH — my prospect projection system — anticipates very good things from Pompey, projecting him for 7.1 WAR through age 28, which ranks 30^th best among prospects with at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last year. Pompey is in interesting case in that — other than his speed — not much really jumps out at you from his stat line, good or bad. His walk rate (10%), strikeout rate (17%), and ISO (.152) were all better than average last year, but also within a stone’s throw of average. Yet pairing these unspectacular metrics with a high BABIP (.373) yielded an excellent 145 wRC+ in the minors last year, and good stolen base numbers (43 for 50) give him the promise of additional baserunning value as well.

We all know that BABIPs can be wildly deceiving in small samples, but hitting for a high BABIP is at least somewhat a function of skill. Pompey certainly got a little lucky on balls in play last year, but is also fast enough to make a .350+ BABIP (in the minors) somewhat believable. Plus, although KATOH takes BABIP into account, as it leans more heavily on other, more reliable hitting metrics. Even if we slice Pompey’s 2014 BABIP from .373 to .330, he would still receive a KATOH projection north of 5, which would put him 60th overall in KATOH’s ranking.

To get a better sense of what the future holds for Pompey, let’s pull up some comps: Minor leaguers of years past, who had seasons similar to Pompey’s 2014. Finding seasons similar to Pompey’s wasn’t exactly straightforward considering how often he changed teams, so I decided to zero in on his stints in High-A and Double-A, which accounted for 89% of his minor league games. To form my list of comps, I looked for players who met at least one of the following criteria:

1) Age 20-22 in High-A or Double-A with league-adjusted BB%, K%, ISO, BABIP, and frequency of stolen base attempts within one standard deviation of Pompey’s.

2) Age 21 in High-A or Double-A with league-adjusted BB%, K%, ISO, BABIP, and frequency of stolen base attempts within one and a half standard deviations of Pompey’s.

Here’s the list of players who had Pompey-ish seasons from 1990-2010. The players marked with an asterisk (*) are still younger than 28. All stats have been league-adjusted to be comparable to Pompey’s numbers, which are listed in the bottom row.

Basically, we have an All-Star in player in Knoblauch, two very good players in Jennings and Stewart, a handful of moderately-useful major leaguers and nearly 20 players of little or no big league consequence. The inclusion of so many Triple-A-quality players on this list doesn’t exactly spark optimism for Pompey’s future, but its important to keep in mind that most prospects don’t pan out. Recent research shows that roughly 70% of Baseball America’s top 100 prospects never become anything more than spare parts, so having that many busted prospects appear among Pompey’s comps is pretty much par for the course.

This exercise does a good job of illustrating the risk associated with a prospect like Pompey, but it also offers up a glimpse of his upside. I’m sure the Blue Jays would be thrilled to have a Chuck Knoblauch, Desmond Jennings or another Shannon Stewart on their hands, and Pompey’s not far off from those guys statistically. Also, keep in mind that this list might be selling Pompey’s potential a bit short, since his physical tools are likely better than many of the players listed among his statistical comps. Pompey’s name has appeared on nearly every top 100 list this winter, which wasn’t the case for the Freddie Bynum‘s and William Bergolla’s of the world.

Pompey destroyed minor league pitching last year, including a .358/.393/.453 performance in Triple-A, and didn’t embarrass himself in his big league debut, either. At first glance, Pompey’s resume suggests he’s ready to take over as the Jays center fielder., but the excitement of such a meteoric rise to the majors makes it easy to overlook that most of last year’s mashing took place in the lower-levels, with his exploits in Triple-A and the majors coming in itty-bitty samples. Pompey has less than 100 plate appearances against above Double-A, and his performance in that sample was largely driven by a BABIP north of .400. There’s just not a ton of data to suggest Pompey’s ready for the challenge of facing big league pitching, and as demonstrated above, many hitters of Pompey’s ilk never really figure it out. Taking this into account, Steamer projects Pompey for a paltry .235/.291/.356 and an 80 wRC+ in 2015, which would put him in B.J Melvin Upton Jr. territory.

Pompey’s tools and minor league track record both suggest he could have a productive big league career ahead of him. Kiley gives his speed a grade of 60, which is more than enough to be a passable center fielder, and he’s hit enough in the minors to suggest he’ll be a non-zero with the bat as well. KATOH’s forecast of 7.1 WAR through age 28 would put him in the company of guys like Nate McLouth, Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney. Each of these players had a run as an everyday outfielder, and Pompey has a decent chance of being a similarly valuable player. Whether or not he reaches that upside remains to be seen, and whether or not he’s ready to be that player in 2015 is an even tougher question. But by putting so few barriers in his way, the Blue Jays appear willing to see what they’ve got.