Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/19/23

Dan Szymborski: The appointed time in the prophecy has been reached.

Nick: What would a Gleyber Torres extension look like?

Dan Szymborski: They’d offer him a set number of dollars in return for a set number or seasons!

Dan Szymborski: (Sorry, it’s opening)

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS would offer 5/119 or 6/138

Rizz: Does ZiPS just not care about exit velo/barrel data much? Carlson’s statcast numbers were about as bad as you can get last year, yet ZiPS isn’t forecasting much of a regression. Nootbaar is essentially the inverse, yet ZIPS didn’t think his performance was sustainable. Two of many instances I’ve pinpointed over the last few weeks

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does, but it doesn’t *only* care about that

Dan Szymborski: Let me put it this way, if that was the overriding thing to look at at the expense of other stuff, Statcast’s x numbers would be more predictive than they actually are

Dan Szymborski: If not for that hard hit/barrel etc. numbers, his projection would be worse; ZiPS is basically projecting him to have his second-best professional season

Dan Szymborski: (More in a minute)

Derek: I actually agree with your Teoscar take – he’s a *good* (not great) hitter with the defensive abilities of a DH. On most WS-caliber teams he’s probably the 7th-9th best position player (while obviously hitting higher in the lineup than that).

Dan Szymborski: I probably could have worded it better. My general point stands, I feel – a top team should ideally not go into a season with Plan As — multiple in the case of the M’s — that are worse than Hernandez is projected.

Dan Szymborski: He’s got a very good one dimension, but he’s a one-dimensional player with little defensive value entering his 30s. Those guys do not age well or gradefully or gradually in most cases.

Dan Szymborski: (And he’s also moving into a park less conducive to his skillset)

Dan Szymborski: Just to illustrate on the former, of the top 400 player-baselines in his comp cohort

Dan Szymborski: 281 of 400 players saw their homers per contact decline from their baseline.

Dan Szymborski: The next season

Derek: Please explain wtf is going on with the Angelos family.

Dan Szymborski: You can only ask them important information on days that are not holidays for anyone in the world.

Dan Szymborski: They’d love to give you MASN revenue data for example. But today is Orthodox Epiphany.

Dan Szymborski: And tomorrow is Inauguration Day

Guest: Will Tigers sign any more bats, or could they be done on MLB deals?

Dan Szymborski: Done on anything that will move the needle

Dan Szymborski: Because there’s not just much there

Morbo: Dan, I told you on Twitter I was going to come to your chat and ask for Pujols’projection. So here I am. Can I get Pujols’ projection? I NEED IT!

Dan Szymborski: Dangit, I can’t – I just hit go on the Marlins pitching projection batch

NYBaseballNerd: I’ve always wondered if ZiPS is a series of gigantic Excel spreadsheets or if you wrote code for it. Also, what hardware does it run on?

Dan Szymborski: It is at its core, but there’s also a lot of Visual Basic involved.

Dan Szymborski: I run it on my main PC if I’m not doing anything else, which is a Ryzen 5950X

Dan Szymborski: if I’m playing a game or something while I wait, I’ll run it on an Intel i7-8700K.

Appa Yip Yip: Have you ever tried to have ZiPS come up with trade values, or is that too subjective for the computer to be good at?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not really a fan of doing it that way because the considerations of teams can be fairly complex.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, on Pujols, I haven’t re-run it to make sure nothing screwed up, but his initial projection was .249/.309/.441, 107 OPS+, 0.8 WAR as a DH in like 350 PA

Ben: How do you think AI will impact baseball over the next few decades, if at all?

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly possible

Dan Szymborski: I wonder if AI will eventually do things like help predictd injuries

Dan Szymborski: Though I expect printed body parts to eventually be a larger impact there

Dan Szymborski: I can see someday that implanting an artificial UCL made of graphene or whatever becomes a standard procedure.

Appa Yip Yip: The Jays need a 4th outfielder, but Robbie Grossman probably wants a starting job. Are they just gonna end up rolling with Whit Merrifield filling that role?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect so

Dan Szymborski: If Grossman wants a starting job, I think the Varsho acquisition ended any chance of that in Toronto

RobertoBeers: A man A Dan A day closer to death, htaedotresolcyadanadanama

Liz: What’s your favorite jam to put on a PBJ sandwich? If you don’t like PBJ, what’s your favorite jam to put on toast?

Dan Szymborski: I like jam on biscuits

Dan Szymborski: I like butter on toast

Dan Szymborski: I like peanuts but I don’t like the viscosity of peanut butter

Dan Szymborski: and I like blackberry best

Kerrick: I know everyone’s top prospect list is different but how is Andrew Moore ranked 14 for the Reds? A 23 Y/O relief pitcher in Low A with a 4.29 ERA and 29 BB in 42 innings.

Dan Szymborski: That would be a question for Eric!

PewPewPew: I’m sad that the Cubs keep signing guys to bury Matt Mervis…and I like Mancini!  What say you?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t see the point of not playing Mervis

TomBruno23: Realizing it all comes down to the terms…with the Cardinals only have Matz under contract after 2023 in the rotation, who would you prioritize for an extension: Montgomery or Mikolas? Wainwright obviously retiring and the timing is way off for both sides on a Flaherty deal.

Dan Szymborski: Monty

TomBruno23: That Alec Burleson projection and top comp is pretty cool.

Dan Szymborski: Don’t get TOO excited about a comp

Joe: Is Gunnar Henderson more likely to hit his 20th percentile projection or his 80th percentile projection, and yes, I realize that he’s statistically as likely to hit either one!

Dan Szymborski: I’d say 20th since I’m naturally fairly conservative

Glennn: Dan – you’re watching a Tigers game in person and Miggy hits a pop up. He lowers his head and starts half-heartedly jogging towards first, knowing this is an out.
Only it isn’t. The ball continues to travel skyward, straight up into the air. The ball isn’t coming back down!
A: is there a high enough distance the ball can travel straight up that it’s considered “foul”?
B: If not, and you have to wait for it to come back down before the game can resume, how long do you sit in the stands waiting for this ball to drop back down? Do you leave after 30 minutes?

Dan Szymborski: Depends how late it is

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure there’s a direct rule dealing with a space popup

Dan Szymborski: I think at some point, the umpire would declare that it left the field of play in fair territory

Dan Szymborski: And I don’t think ground rules would be in effect, making it a ground rules double

Dan Szymborski: there’s no atmospheric rules double

Dan Szymborski: or earth rules doubles

Dan Szymborski: So my inclination would be to call it an inside-the-park home run

Morbo: When you make a typo while making fun of someone else’s typo 🙄

Morbo: 👍for gradedully

Oaktown Blues: Which international FA pitcher that the A’s signed is ZiPS more optimistic about – Rucinski or Fujinami? Do you agree?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS liked Rucinski more. I’m not sure really

Urban Shocker’s Jockstrap: How concerning does ATL’s 2023 shortstop situation look with the current options of Grissom, Arcia, and Shewmake according to ZiPS? Is ZiPS optimistic about any of their potential options and, if not, do you think it likely that AA makes a move to upgrade?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s fine and the team is not likely to upgrade

TomBruno23: Mozeliak really wishes you had released the STL projections before last weekend’s Winter Warmup and media Q&A…

TomBruno23: Is it ok to throw away all these family Christmas cards that come in the mail or was I ok to do it immediately after opening?

Dan Szymborski: I usually keep them in a box until the following Christmas

Lars Noot Bar: I am made of creamy milk chocolate that melts in your mouth, with a soft and chewy center, infused with gooey caramel, adding a touch of sweetness and a hint of saltiness. I also come in a hazelnut version.

Well-Beered Englishman: As a neutral TV watcher, and possibly irrespective of goodness, which teams do you think will provide the most excitement/entertainment?

Dan Szymborski: Padres are fun. Mairners are fun

Dan Szymborski: Mariners

StevenSeagull: Have you seen any reason at all to believe that Syndergaard will be a vastly different pitcher than last year?  I’m seeing the fluff pieces about hard work, at this facility or that, and just don’t know what to think?

Dan Szymborski: Unless he hard works his way back to a 98 mph fastball, I’m not seeing it

TomBruno23: How dare you talk about MASN revenues on today, NATIONAL POPCORN DAY.

ClydeH: Zips 2023 projections do not appear to be on FanGraphs yet.  Can you provide eta ?

Dan Szymborski: About 10 days? Only 4 teams left to go

Scotty: Did you see the cluster that was the Castellini presentation? What in the world is going on in Cincinnati?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah. I tweeted about it a few times too!

Dan Szymborski: They apparently screwed up looking up the data on FanGraphs, either intentionally or unintentionally, to make their case lake better

Appa Yip Yip: AI will generate extra fingers on pitchers hands so they can spin the ball better

Marko from Tropoja: What percentage chance would you give Kershaw of getting to 175 IP this season?

Dan Szymborski: 20

Stu: Thanks for chatting…what team do you think is currently the farthest from returning to contention?

Dan Szymborski: Nats

Morbo: I for one look forward to cyborg baseball and the days of Pitch-o-mat 5000 and Wireless Joe Jackson!

pomPOM: are you going to do your annual MiLB/Rookies who ZIPS loves article again this year?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, do I do that?

Dan Szymborski: Unless I’ve lost my mind, which is a possibility, that’s something someone else does with ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: I do some breakouts/busts pieces

Teoscar Hernandez: Would you rather have me or Nick Castellanos?

Dan Szymborski: You, easily

Farhandrew Zaidman: I’m almost certain the synthetic UCL braces already exist and tons of professional pitchers already have them.

Ya Boy: Just morbidly curious…do you ever bet on MLB games/outcomes?

Dan Szymborski: I like the longer-term prop bets, not individual games

Dan Szymborski: and I pick my spots.

Dan Szymborski: I only bet in situations where I see significant value

D: Will there be an article evaluating the Sean Murphy extension? I know it happened over the holidays so I could have missed it.

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure we had one

Dan Szymborski: Weird, we didn’t!

TomBruno23: Can I get excited about Masyn Winn’s comp to Alfredo Griffin? MLB needs more 419 PA 4 BB seasons.

Ya Boy: Do you run all the projections at once and release them one by one or do you run them one by one and write them up as they get spit out?

Dan Szymborski: Do some enormous batch runs, but for articles, I run them one-by-one so I can double-check them for shenanigans

Dan Szymborski: Like one I missed

Dan Szymborski: was the Jackie Robinson comp for Wong

Dan Szymborski: but it was Jackie Robinson in the early 70s, which could not be

Dan Szymborski: which means that I accidentally mapped a name wrong and I’m not sure who it is

Bike: I have a question but I’m not sure if you’re taking inquiries on National Popcorn Day or not? I’d hate to disrespect the Midwest by asking the wrong question on today of all days

Dan Szymborski: I don’t answer questions on Cincinnati Chili Day because I consider it a day of mourning

pomPOM: you’re all backwards on this jam thing:

pomPOM: Ah, he likes bread and butter
Ah, he likes toast and jam
Ah, that’s what his baby feeds him
Ah, he’s her loving cat…

Appa Yip Yip: Dan what is your opinion on ice water? Delicious and refreshing, or boring why is there no flavour.

Dan Szymborski: Boring, though I should drink more seltzer than I do

Dan Szymborski: Too much Coke

Urban Shocker’s Jockstrap: People always ask you “How is ZiPS?”, “When is ZiPS getting here?” But do they ever ask ZiPS “How is Dan?” “When is Dan being posted?” “Does Dan love me and my team?” Really makes you think about our priorities as a society.

Dan Szymborski: If ZiPS alive, so am I!

Sharps: Is there a type of player which you think has faded out from the MLB that you’d like to see return?

Dan Szymborski: I do like the contact hitter types, but baseball’s not really structured to make that valuable

Guest: Name the most random baseball player of the last 20 years you can possibly think of please. First name that comes to mind.

Dan Szymborski: Andy Stankiewicz

Dan Szymborski: because stank is in his name

pomPOM: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2021-top-100-prospects/

Dan Szymborski: Oh, is that a rookies ZiPS like piece?

Dan Szymborski: That’s just the top 100 I do almost every year

The Orioles Finances: Any chance I actually get to see daylight?

Dan Szymborski: Find me a day that isn’t a holiday for somoene and we’ll talk

Guest: Baseball Trade Values says a straight-up Ha-Seong Kim/Tanner Houck trade makes sense for both sides. Your opinion?

Dan Szymborski: Meh

Wireless Joe Jackson: Hey Dan, can you explicate what ZiPS sees in Dean Kremer to give him such a rosy projection?

Dan Szymborski: I’m actually not sure here

Dan Szymborski: his cohort is unusually good performing

Dan Szymborski: But at this stage in the season, I’m just worried about cranking out 30

pomPOM: if ZIPS every becomes sentient, will it love or hate you?  Quality of relationship?

Dan Szymborski: Hate me, I’m sure

VegasJohnyroll: Am I the only one who thinks the Padres starting rotation is way too thin for a contender,   Maybe they plan on winning a ton of 10-7 games because with their current payroll I can’t see them adding much.   I’m nervous.

Dan Szymborski: It is a concern that I’ve expressed before. The org has lost a lot of plan Bs they had

Krontz: How’s the Dodgers’ OF play out? Outman? Thompson? Taylor out there mostly? Lots of playing time questions it seems ….

Dan Szymborski: I’m still of the belief the Dodgers pull out some wacky trade in spring training

Guest: Hearing BA say, “I am buying into Jackson Holliday because of the organization behind him” brought a tear to my eye, Dan. Too rich to think he follows the Gunnar path? Started A ball in 2021, 2022 ended in the majors.

Dan Szymborski: Gunnar’s improvement was unusually large and sudden, so it’s not something I’d want to predict players doing regularly

pomPOM: I’d think the change in the force of gravity would be far more concerning than time in seat at that point

Tacoby Bellsbury: Would you eat deep-fried Cincinnati chili dredged in Old Bay?

Dan Szymborski: dear god no

zMike: As a Jays fan I enjoyed Teo in the dugout with his smile and during his hot stretches he can carry an offense. Not to mention that he was acquired for nothing from the ‘Stros. But he should be a DH / OF4 / platoon option due to his defense. Would look even more atrocious in a spacious OF or with the Jays new ‘funky’ OF dimensions.

Guest: If you could give one player a ridiculously high, 2017 Avisail Garcia-type BABIP for 2023, who do you think would be the most fun player to choose?  I think Tommy Edman could be like an 8.0 WAR player with it so that would be fun. Steven Kwan would also be pretty exciting

Dan Szymborski: Tim Anderson’s a good bet for that, though ZiPS has largely been doing that

StevenSeagull: In your view, are there enough top-level baseball players to expand MLB at some point?  Honestly, it seems like talent is stretched pretty thin already, particularly for teams that aren’t good at drafting/development/paying.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know, talent is pretty subjective

Dan Szymborski: But if it were thin, we’d see a larger deviation in performances

Dan Szymborski: I don’t want expansion simply because I cringe at the thought of eight four-team divisions

Dan Szymborski: and owners would naturally push for 14 or 16 team playoffs

Morbo: The Angelos will provide revenue data on April 1 but in celebration of that day it will all be fake and say they don’t make any money

Farhandrew Zaidman: I’m surprised at the tepid Chafin market, I thought he may well have been the best LHP reliever available this offseason.

80grademustache: how does Zips evaluate a guy like Strider considering the “shorter” minor league track record but dominate first full season? Especially being a RHP. I’d imagine there aren’t many comps perhaps?

Dan Szymborski: There’s more uncertainty

An Englishman: I love the American sport of baseball. What does ZiPs like about Liberatore?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, what it really loves about most Cardinals pitchers is the Cardinals defense

Guest: Re: Vinny P. I think he’ll average around 25 homers over the next 5+ years with maybe one or two years with 30+. Am I sell his power short?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so. It’s not a particularly good home run park and homers are down across the league

Chip: If Aaron Judge were to make 100% contact with a baseball and actually caused the ball to vaporize, is that a ball or a strike?

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s a foul ball

Dan: How many people would be MLB regulars but aren’t simple because they play for the wrong team and are blocked/overseas?

Dan Szymborski: Fewer than there used to be. Teams are better at this kind of thing than they used to be

Dan Szymborski: If he were 10 years older, Nelson Cruz would not have had a career in the United States.

Dan Szymborski: And born 10 years later, Edgar Martinez gets 3000 hits

phlij: how serious a contender are the Phillies? Same level as Mets/Braves/Padres?

Dan Szymborski: Not on that level as they’re thinner, but Turner is a big deal

Lij: how did the brewers end up with William Contreras in that trade? Where did they come jn

Dan Szymborski: They gave up Ruiz!

Dan Szymborski: My favorite trade of all time remains the Wil Myers trade

Dan Szymborski: The Rays trade Wil Myers to the Padres and somehow the Nats end up with the best player.

Guest: Coke > Pepsi

Dan Szymborski: Every drink a really old can of Coke?

Dan Szymborski: Old Coke is just Pepsi

LeonardFarnsworth: They’re listening! You said the o’s should spare no expense, and look! Reed Garrett!

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: If the ABS system were already in place, would there be any chance in hell that going back to a challenge system would be a welcome idea?

Dan Szymborski: oh god no

Guest: Who is the most likely 95+ win team from last year to win fewer than 85? Yankees, Mets, Braves, Dodgers, and Astros are the options

Dan Szymborski: Dodgers

Dan Szymborski: Now, I think it’s extremely unlikely of course

Dan Szymborski: But the Dodgers are thinner than usual and a couple bad rolls and they lose, say, Betts and  Urias, and I think the wheels come off the shopping cart

Dan Szymborski: And if things start to go bad, we have them like five million over the luxury tax threshold

Dan Szymborski: They may want to liquidate some salary in that case to get back under, which is what they had hoped to do

Guest: https://www.theonion.com/toyota-recalls-1993-camry-due-to-fact-that-ow…

Grant: The Athletic is doing a series on potential expansion sites, highlighting Portland, Nashville, Montreal, and Las Vegas. What are your thoughts on the future of expansion in MLG?

Dan Szymborski: I had the neural network do that!

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, can’t find it

Dan Szymborski: So here’s an old one: five new team names for each team.

Dan Szymborski:

Ben: A vaporized ball is the moral equivalent of a swinging-strikeout passed ball — he swung and the ball has vanished. Send Judge to first base.

Dan Szymborski: But it vaporized from his contact

Rob: I think this is a general ZiPS question rather than Cardinals specific but I can’t tell how AB are projected? Seems like there are too many AB assigned to Gorman and Donovan to add up to a job share, for one instance. Just curious – thanks!

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is agnostic on team decisions

Dan Szymborski: It’s past playing time, age, position, injury history

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think projecting, say, a Double-A prospect to go .000/.000/.000 in 0 PAs a very useful way to use a projection system

Joe: I’ve just gotten into OOTP and holy shit why didn’t anyone warn me

Dan Szymborski: OOTP uses ZiPS as basis for starting points!

Dan Szymborski: On that note, I can’t stretch out the discussion hour this week as I’m going on ESPN 101 in St. Louis at 1:15 ET/

Dan Szymborski: So thanks for coming everyone!