Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/23/25

drplantwrench: are the dodgers the team with the highest ZiPS projection ever?  who is if they arent/where do they place?

Dan Szymborski: Oh yeah, welcome yada yada

Dan Szymborski: It’s still preliminary, but while the Dodgers have the highest ZiPS projected wins ever, it’s not the 2025 Dodgers that are likely to grab that, but the 2021 Dodgers at 99 wins

Ahoy: As a Pirate fan who’s used to the disappointment of, well, everything, I admit the rosy projections of Horowitz and Gonzales made me happy! You surprised by those?

Dan Szymborski: Not REALLY, but only that it’s difficult to really surprise me after doing this for 20 years!

drplantwrench: what do you think of the angels signing max scherzer to a big one year contract? they could use the SP and could be trade bait if/when their season falls apart

Dan Szymborski: Kinda meh. I think the Angels think they’re a lot better than they actually are

VottomanEmpire: Bald-faced fantasy question – considering Landon Roupp and Yilber Diaz for a final keeper spot in a deep dynasty. Win-now team, so path to meaningful GS in 2025 is relevant. I see ZiPS likes both decently well for unproven young guys. I recall Longenhagen slapping a recent 50FV on Yilber and a more out-of-date 40FV on Roupp, while Eno has praised Roupp’s stuff a bit (though hinted that the updated Stuff+ model is a tad less bullish). What say you, Father of Machines?

Dan Szymborski: Both are really interesting, though I think Yilber’s more likely to have trouble getting meaningful starts in majors in 2025

Pop: Which team has the best MLB level bullpen depth?

Dan Szymborski: In ZiPS, it WAS Twins, but I haven’t looked at the bullpen projections in ZiPS since before their last couple of signings (so it COULD be dodgers)

SteveS: Hi Dan:  Love your work. Any thoughts on Matt McClain and Shane McClanahan as contributors this upcoming season?

Dan Szymborski: I’m optimistic on both. The Reds were especially careful with McClain and I don’t think there’s any reason to worry about McClanahan more than any other guy at the end of their TJ recovery

Fish: What current players do you see as part of Miami’s next playoff team?

Dan Szymborski: noen

Justin: How would you rate the Dana brown front office so far

Dan Szymborski: OK, but not *great*

Dan Szymborski: It’s kind of an incomplete

Dan Szymborski: They lose points for the organization being caught SO flat-footed by the Abreu 1B situation and simply having few good ideas what to do about it

Dan Szymborski: (back then)

New and Former Mets: Hey Dan. Gut feeling: what wins out, Soto’s talent or the #LolMets curse?

Dan Szymborski: The thing is the greater the Mets look, the more tragic the Mets curse is.

Dan Szymborski: If the Mets had signed Soto *and* Burnes, the team would all come down with cholera in March

The Gyorko Store Called: Aside from arguably New York, is no one in the AL trying to get better and win this year?

Dan Szymborski: It’s the incentives built intl MLB

Eli: does Zips have any hope for a Goldy bounce back? And Bellinger in YSIII?

Dan Szymborski: SOME but it’s hard at his age. A bounce back may happen, but not enough to be impressive.

Dan Szymborski: Bellinger is *fine* but he was greatly overrated by his 2023

Guest: Did you see MLB Network’s list of shortstops? Can you see any reasoning for putting Seager at #2 ahead of Lindor and Witt?

Dan Szymborski: not good reasoning no

bazuka: Do you think Bobby Witt Jr. can do as well this year as he did last year? I think last year’s results may have been too good.

Dan Szymborski: he CAN, but regression’s always a thing for anyone

victoria: does zips prefer matt shaw at 2nd or 3rd long term?

Dan Szymborski: 3B

Ben VV: There is talk the Brewers will keep Ortiz at 3B, move Turang to SS and have Caleb Durbin take over at 2B.  Thoughts and thoughts on what Brewers will get in Durbin?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not the worst idea, if a bit unambitious

Kevin: Am I giving the Cubs too much credit or was their move for Paredes last year a deliberate precursor to the Tucker deal? His skill set plays virtually nowhere but TB and Houston.

Dan Szymborski: I doubt they really were thinking THAT far ahead.

Dan S.: Hey Dan, I haven’t seen Tyler O’Neill’s ZiPS projection on the Fangraphs page for the Orioles or Red Sox. What’s ZiPS say about him in 2025?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is a bigger O’Neill fan than Steamer is, I believe

Dan Szymborski:

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Who needs a Flaherty the most?

Dan Szymborski: Cubs, Orioles, maybe Giants

Ben VV: What are your thoughts on Peraulta, Woodruff, Civale, Cortez and Myers. Rotation for the Brewers? Where does this rank in NL Central? NL?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has them basically a tie with the Pirates

Dan Szymborski: at first

New and Former Mets: And are you more or less bullish than ZIPS on PCA. I want him to go 15/40/.250. Am I nuts?

Dan Szymborski: less only because it’s a really aggressive projection

Sirras: In your personal life, are you a high risk high reward person or do you prefer a lower risk lower reward approach. What about in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: I am not a gambling type

phillycheese: Have you looked at how WAR projections for pitchers are distributed? Guessing that Innings Pitched are bimodally distributed due to high injury risk at start of year

Dan Szymborski: yeah, for an established starting pitcher, 0 innings is more likely than 10

I am the Apple: Could we ever get the pitcher counterpart to the position players’ top 20 in career projected WAR?

Dan Szymborski: at some point for sure!

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Depth Charts say the Mets are the team to beat in the NL West???

Dan Szymborski: I’m pretty sure they won’t win the NL West

Dan Szymborski: if we’re talking East, Steamer seems to think so, but ZiPS still moderately prefers Phillies and Braves

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Northern California’s not nearly as cold, Dan.

Dan Szymborski: It’s actually all the way up to 27 now. Taking the trash down to the curb yesterday at 15 degrees felt almost balmy

Dan Szymborski: at -9 degrees, the furnace — which isn’t that old, it’s a five-year-old Trane two-stage furnace — starts to lose a couple degrees from its target temperature of 70

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: What does ZiPS project as a free agent contract for Cedric Mullins in 2026? Assuming he has the average projected 2025.

Dan Szymborski: The scenario isn’t as easy to do on the fly in 10 seconds, but I can give you the projected contract right now

victoria: will you please do a bregman destination poll

Dan Szymborski: sure

Dan Szymborski:

victoria: it kind of seems like the DBacks are running out of time to trade Montgomery, right? Teams always need pitching but it doesn’t seem like Arizona is going to eat that much money.

Dan Szymborski: I think he stays in Arizona

Rapping Paul Sewald: My name is Paul Sewald and I’m here to say/middle up fastballs in the low nineties all day/ Recent history says I should be pretty mid / will Cleveland’s pitching lab put the end to my skid?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure, but it is troubling how hittable he’s become

Dan Szymborski:

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: If you created a Frankenstein team from the other 4 teams in the NL West, how often would they beat the Dodgers in that division?

Dan Szymborski: I can’t do THAT off the cuff for sure!

Bob: When you give out ZiPS contract predictions I get how it comes up with the money given the years, but how does it pick the number of years?

Dan Szymborski: Either an algorithm it has or I simply tell it

Jonathan: If you were tasked with modernizing WAR, how might you go about doing it

Dan Szymborski: If I were the WAR Dictator, there are a lot of things I’d do

Dan Szymborski: An auto-calibrating method for positional value based on the previous 20 years or so

Dan Szymborski: (with DH matching 1B)

Dan Szymborski: Pinch-hit appearances separated as a unique position with a much lower replacement level

Dan Szymborski: Giving or taking a few extra runs from pitchers based on their career ERA relative to FIP and their team defenses (zWAR already does this)

Guest: hey dan, thx for chat!  looking over Minnesota players last season, at first look, it appears like Willi Castro had a good season with 3.1 WAR. but after digging into the numbers they look pretty bleak all around.  He’s about an average offensive player and defensively, while he plays a lot of positions, he plays none of them well except 3B.   He avoided playing 1B and DH which helped his positional value of the WAR component.  Most of his value comes from  the replacement and league value of WAR.  He gets a lift on his SS rating of WAR with 3 OAA while his UZR is -9.5, why is there such a discrepancy between these values?  Is it fair to say WAR in this case over inflates the true value of Castro and he merely accumulated a lot of at bats although not that impactful?

Dan Szymborski: Defense is very tricky to measure as the difference is not a lot of plays and there’s an estimate of guesstimation since you’re not really counting events, you’re counting events that SHOULD HAVE or SHOULD NOT HAVE happened

Datum: Is ZiPS looking mostly at minor league results for hitters or is it more underlying metrics like EVs, LAs, Plate discipline, contact?

Dan Szymborski: There are underlying metrics, more for AAA because statcast

Dan Szymborski: But I have a lot of data in there

Dan Szymborski: for example, I have coordinate data of every ball hit in the minors

Also a Dan: Hi Dan, according to ZIPS would the Astros bebetter with the current team or would they be better with Arenado at 3B and Paredes at 1st and no Walker?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS slightly prefers the current (I alreaydy looked at it)

Roberto Beers: A man a dan a winterchat ahcretniwanadanama

ZiPS has Bailey projected for 17 defensive runs, no other player within 5 runs of him thus far. In the Steamer/OOPSY projections, there are four (4!) catchers projected for more defensive runs with similar playing time. Can you speculate why this is? Do they just not include framing runs? Did I answer my own question?

Dan Szymborski: I totally keep telling you guys, but tehse questions are hard to answer because I don’t own or operate Steamer or OOPSY

MikeDW: Why are there no ZIPS for Jeferons Quero?  I know he was hurt all of last year, but there are ZIPS for other players that were in similar spot.  He also has a much higher chance of seeing MBL in 2025 than others that have a projection.

Dan Szymborski: He’s actually in there,I just didn’t add him to the db until someone noted I missed him

Dan Szymborski: On Mullins, ZiPS says 4/71

Johnny5Alive: Are the Mets better off in 2025 with Alonso at first and vientos at 3rd, or are you buying vientos to first and Baty at third as viable, especially for a team with real world series aspirations

Dan Szymborski: If you’re just talking WINS, then Alonso/Vientos, but given the salaries that it seems to take to keep Alonso, overall Vientos/Baty

Senseandrew: Hi Dan. No question. Just wanted to express my gratitude for your work here. You and the others at FG are the best! Cheers!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks!

Jeff in Jersey: Does ZIPS think Pete Alonso is declining quickly? Feels like the Mets do.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS seems to agree with how the Mets feel these days: it would offer him 3/65 or 4/74

Jeremy: Surely the Phillies should’ve done something more/different to address their outfield, right?

Dan Szymborski: It could have been more ambitious, but it’s not the worst thing ever

victoria: o/u 250 MLB PAs for Tim Anderson in Anaheim this year?

Dan Szymborski: under

Henry Dodger: Are you surprised all the projection systems love deGrom again even after the second TJ?

Dan Szymborski: no

Dan Szymborski: There’s a lot of penalty you can give him

Judge: Where would you rank Judges last 3 years among offensive 3 year runs?

Dan Szymborski: It’s definitely one of the top three ever, but I don’t know offhand what number I’d rank it as

jillybohnson: Does ZiPS have any opinion on what a hypothetical Kyle Tucker extension would look like?

Dan Szymborski: 6/171 which I’m not sure gets the job done

Henry Dodger: Sean Manaea and Nate Eovaldi got the same 3/75 contract. Which pitcher would you rather have on those terms?

Dan Szymborski: Eovaldi

Henry Dodger: David Stearns is trying to avoid signing Pete Alonso without offending him or the fan base, yes?

Dan Szymborski: That’s my guess

Guest: I was reading the comments in Baumann’s “Hall of Very Good” article, and someone brought up that Jimmy Rollins was actually a below average hitter for his career. I couldn’t believe it, I had to look it up, but it’s true! Did you know? Like, he only had one season with a wRC+ over 105. My mind is blown.

Colton: Do you have a favorite early hit from ZiPS? I remember ZiPS was the first projection system that was super in on Mookie before the breakout but is there a different player that you’re more impressed with by chance?

Dan Szymborski: Bieber for sure

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had him like 15th in WAR the year he broke out

The Gyorko Store Called: If ZiPS became sentient for two minutes, what do you think are the three things it would tell you?

Dan Szymborski: I imagine it woudl question the nature of its existence

Dan Szymborski: or ask why I keep the creator trapped in an oubliette under my backyard shed

Pop: Now that the Padres lost out on Roki, is it in their best interest to keep Cease?

Dan Szymborski: yes

Alec: Who are you more optimistic on to get closest to reach their potential as a prospect – Brett Baty or Curtis Mead?

Dan Szymborski: Mead maybe?

Ceddy B Ready: This guy thinks you can predict my contract without seeing my amazing 2025 season! Crazy sauce!

Guest: What percentile outcome would you give yourself on your life so far based upon the criteria that are most important to you?

Dan Szymborski: to ME? 80th

Dan Szymborski: But I’m not particularly ambitious in some things

Dan Szymborski: I think in big picture world, maybe 30th?

Dan Szymborski: I think bigger things were considered for me generally as I was a very smart little kid, like I’d do something to improve the world or something. But truth is, while I make a good living and have done things *I* like to do, I’ve also coasted somewhat on my natural talents that I did little to “deserve” mainly the product of genetics and how I was raised

Guest: Is there a player in MLB history with a shorter name than Matt McLain that gets misspelled more frequently? THERE IS ONLY ONE C!

Dan Szymborski: You see a lot of weird spelling of McGwire and “Ripkin” pops up a lot

Dan Szymborski: and I bet most people can’t spell Yastrzemski consistently

The Gyorko Store Called: Do not google oopsy steamer

Jonathan: Are there vendors that sell positional data for minor league players?  I know Statcast freely releases the HawkEye data for all AAA leagues and one other league, but I had this vague thought that the old TrackMan data for all minor league players was still potentially accessible.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really know the status of that

Dan Szymborski: I have my own sources for things

BC26: What do you think ZiPS is seeing in Taylor Trammell to project a 106 OPS+

Dan Szymborski: ZIPS has him easily coming off his best minor league season. I’m guessing OOPSY feels simialrly

charles capisce: what would the computer give bregman right now? his zips today didnt look great

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS would only give him 5/100. He’s not young and come way off his peak offensively

Dan Szymborski: I imagine that disconnect is one of the reasons that he isn’t signed yet

Dan Szymborski: I know for a fact a lot of team uses ZiPS, at least in tandem with their internals, and there’s a great deal of correlation betwene the two

Kappy III: What is the definition of a “breakout player?” MLB Network claimed Shohei, Elly, and other similar talents would be “breakout players” in 2025? Am I missing something? Please educate me.

Dan Szymborski: It’s kind of a foggy thing

Dan Szymborski: Tha’ts not strictly defined

Dan Szymborski: I think of a breakout as something which fundamentally changes how you think about a player

Dan Szymborski: I think Shohei and Elly being breakout candidates is 2025 is absurd

TooDamnTall: No, really. How are you?

Dan Szymborski: TooDamnFat?

Farhandrew Zaidman: Hey Dan! If Sasaki places in ROY/Cy, do the dodgers get that comp pick for him (assuming he’s up to begin the year)?

Dan Szymborski: It depends if he has PPI eligibility. It depends how ESPN/BA/Pipeline treat him as a prospect

Alby: The other reason Bregman hasn’t signed yet is spelled B-O-R-A-S.

Scotty: ZIPs has Isaac Paredes and Kyle Tucker as essentially equal in 2024. Projected wars of 3.5 and 3.7, respectively. Does that pass the sniff test for you, personally? I think most people who have Tucker as way over Paredes. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thinks Paredes is especially valuable in Houston

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS doesn’t just use handedness park effects, but estimates pull/spray park effects

Dan Szymborski: Like if the Polo Grounds still existed, ZiPS would REALLY penalize spray power hitters

Farhandrew Zaidman: In retrospect, did the Orioles misjudge Santander’s market? Wouldn’t they have preferred Santander for 5/92 over O’neill for 3/49?

Dan Szymborski: not necessarily

Kappy III: Kristian Campbell’s ceiling: ________

Dan Szymborski: drywall

Quarantino Martinez: Are the Orioles going to keep sitting on their hands this off season? I like the small additions, but none improves on a player lost let alone on the 2024 overall level.

Dan Szymborski: I suspect that’s about right

Kappy III: Kristian Campbell’s ceiling: ________ Kristian Campbell’s floor: ________ (compare to current/former MLB player)

Dan Szymborski: drywall, probably hardwood floors, as current/former MLB players can afford to have nice wood

TooDamnTall: On a scale from pancakes to whale sharks, how much better is ZIPS today they when it debuted?

Dan Szymborski: maple syrup

NL West Fan: C Blake Sabol, 1B Manny Machado (cheating a bit), 2B Ketel Marte, SS Willy Adames, 3B Matt Chapman, LF Corbin Carroll, CF Brentan Doyle, RF Fernando Tatis Jr., DH Jackson Merrill. The Dodgers are good but I think this is NL Rest lineup is better

Dan Szymborski: wait, why are you playing Sabol over Bailey?

Clovis I: Which visual art would you most happily adopt as a hobby once ZiPS becomes self sufficient and moves out of the house? Architecture? Scuplture? Oil painting?

Dan Szymborski: oh dear god, none of them

Dan Szymborski: I basically draw and paint like a five-year-old

Dan Szymborski: with unlimited free time, I’d probably play a lot more piano

Dan Szymborski: Especially before arthritis further erodes my fingers

Dan Szymborski: I’m working on Liszt’s Hungarian Rhapsody No. 15 (the Rakoczy march one), but I just don’t have unlimiated hours to just punch out the technical issues as much as I’d love to

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: (Sorry, door, I’ll stay a few more minutes)

War2d2: Hey Dan! You said Paredes was particularly valuable in Houston. Do you have his (and Tucker’s) ZiPS for if they stayed where they were before the trade?

Dan Szymborski: I have tucker slightly beter, but Paredes was like a 2.9 WAR

Quarantino Martinez: PS: I’m not sure if they came through, but I just uploaded my Cito Sucks shirt from the ASG where he kept Mussina on the bench. I appreciated the mention in the Santander column.

The Gyorko Store Called: You have to compete in the Cannonball Run with one current MLB player. Based solely on vibes, who do you pick?

Dan Szymborski: I think Brett Phillips might be the most fun

Dan Szymborski: Votto maybe, but I guess he doesn’t count now

Colton: Sabol was traded to Boston a couple weeks ago

Dan Szymborski: I totally forgot! lol

Dan Szymborski: (though ZiPS knwos)

Dan Szymborski: But why over bailey?

CaptainJamesHook: How much did Schwellenbach’s season alter his long term ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: Quite a lot, he’s one of the big gamers

Bighouselawdawg: Seriously, Dan, Been doing FBB over 25 yrs. Not bragging just fact. Given old and new analytics, I truly believe ranking mid-tier SP’s 20-60 is a dart board game. Please don’t be insulted, I believe you try hard at these rankings, The “eye-ball test” by around May 15th I believe is most accurate. Too late for drafts. Truly, what do you think of this? PS: Your an amusing guy live!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really rank them, they’re ranked by a large set of algorithms

Pat: Is there a universal age you use to factor in declining player performance or does it vary by position?

Dan Szymborski: no, yes

Ceddy B Ready: Rooker on the Run would be a good time.

Clovis I: But Dan, imagine an AI that is trained ONLY on your oil paintings. You could generate literal mayhem.

Blake Sabol Fan: Sabol over Bailey was a name brain fart that I will now own

Martin: Thoughts on the Santander signing? As a Jays fan am I wrong to be kind of underwhelmed?

Dan Szymborski: I wrote a whole piece with my thoughts!

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-blue-jays-finally-get-a-free-agent-slu…

Bob Loblaw: Dodgers o/u is 104.5. Which side are you taking?

Dan Szymborski: under

OddBall Herrera: He’s a baseball player, his floor is probably made of compressed sunflower seed shells and gum wrappers

Szymborski’s Monster: Have you ever created a fake player in ZIPS just for fun? Like I want to see how good a guy with Judge’s power, Arraez’s contact ability, Altuve’s strike zone, etc. would be

Dan Szymborski: No, just in MLB the Show

Guest: No forgiveness for Cito!

Guest: I was sent home from middle school for wearing this

Argolis: I think Mookie could win an Olympic medal in skiing or hockey, but not both.

Dan Szymborski: ski hockey would be fun

Dan Szymborski: You ice up a downhill run

Dan Szymborski: then you have to go down it on skates

Dan Szymborski: and you get time penalties for losing the puck on the way down and for not making the small goal by the finish line before you pass the finish line

Hanon Slider: Do you have any strong feelings about the declining number of ballpark organists?

Dan Szymborski: I’m pro organ

War2d2: isn’t an iced downhill run just the luge?

Dan Szymborski: but open, not contained

Blake Sabol Fan: Skis hockey would also be fun. Give a guy on skis a stick and puck and they have to score on a downhill run power play

Ceddy B Ready: ski hockey sounds like a cool what for me to slice thru my own achilles.

The Gyorko Store Called: Is this is the lightening round?  Favorite sandwich (a) you make at home and (b) from a restaurant or deli type place?

Dan Szymborski: I like making reubens at home

Dan Szymborski: away from home, cheesesteak

Ceddy B Ready: hehe you said organ hehe hehehe (I’m an adult)

Dan Szymborski: on that note, it’ stime for me to head out for another week! There are ZiPS to prepare for publication

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming all!