Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/19/20

Dan Szymborski: Hello peoples!

Dbo: Happy Thanksgiving! Make sure to tell your family that lasagna is in fact a casserole

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t given much thought

Dbo: Dan, what do you put the Cubs odds of getting Theo Epstein at?

Dan Szymborski: Low considering he just left!

Pedro: If you were Preller, how would you go about replacing Clevinger?

Dan Szymborski: I’d probably sign an inning-eater. The rotation’s not in bad shape, though obviously it’s better with Clev

Guest: From EW, I’m intrigued by the idea of more chaos to “fix” baseball. In particular, what if the baseballs had looser manufacturing requirements, so from game to game (or even pitch to pitch) teams wouldn’t know whether the ball was juiced or dead? Do you think teams would start valuing “ball in play” hitters more than three true outcome hitters?

Dan Szymborski: I like MLB to make changes, but I think being transparent is a must.

Dan Szymborski: Not change just to be wacky.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t want one of the changes being including extra randomness.’

Guest: Listened to the whole effectively wild podcast this week waiting for you to sing the full house song and FOR WHAT

TomBruno23: Is this the year we get together for impossible slider stuffing from White Castle?

Dan Szymborski: Meh. It tastes fine (though not great), but the texture is still really off.

Doug: Does Clevinger’s injury push the Padres to be more aggressive in free agency, trades, or promotion of prospects?

Dan Szymborski: We might see a prospect or two quicker than we otherwise would. I don’t think it upends things like getting them in the Bauer mix.

Fred: What did ZIPS see to make Roy Cullenbine the number one comp for Aaron Judge?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure I understand – Cullenbine was really awesome in his last 20s.

Logan: We haven’t heard anything linking them yet, but do you see Andrelton as the perfect fit for the Reds’ SS situation? I think they’ll probably be prioritizing a short-term deal given that they likely still see Jose Garcia as the future. Also, I’d think they should prioritize defense at SS given the rest of their infield

Dan Szymborski: He’d be a fun add!

Tommy2: Do Dodgers re-sign Turner for two or more years? It would be a nice sentimental move, but not necessarily a good baseball move.

Dan Szymborski: I think he gets a year or two with the Dodgers. They’ll be willing to start phasing him out if age catches up.

Jed Hoyer: What’s the difference between my old job and my new job?

Dan Szymborski: One less layer to the people who hamstring you!

Dan Szymborski: FEWER

Dan Szymborski: I’m soryr.

Appa Yip Yip: Not really a question but it sure seems like a team willing to spend a little cash could build a pretty good bullpen this off-season. Relievers are going to get hosed by non-tenders.

Dan Szymborski: I would agree with this.

Very Passionate Fangraphs Fan: Hello, Dan! I love your content and Zips. 2 questions for you: 1) A lot of talk about Sanchez and Benny the last few weeks. Who do you think has a better year?

2) What would you project each of these guys to get in Free Agency?

Dan Szymborski: I’d probably pick Benintendi by a bit, though there are serious concerns about both.

Dan Szymborski: If they got there now, not much!

Dbo: Dan, is there any truth to the rumor that I just made up now that you will be featured on Keeping up with The Kardashians?

Dan Szymborski: I really hope not.

DJ: You’ve sort of been the support hotline for those hoping for an eventual Luis Urias breakout. Are you still a believer?

Dan Szymborski: Moderately.

Matt (Oceanside): Howdy Dan! There was an article today by Shelly Osbourne that reported the Dodgers having laid off staff. No specifics on which departments or how many people. Should Dodger fans be worried about this, or is it probably on the business side (ie ticket sales)? Also, does this make it likely that the Dodgers do not exceed the lux tax this year. They currently project to about 191 million. Seems like not a lot of room to move? Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately, I think all teams are hedging their bets right now until the pandemic is managed.

Guest: Mets offseason so far, best or best ever

Dan Szymborski: getting rid of the wilpons is amazing!

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Chaos for the sake of chaos is how we end up with Blernsball in the 31st century.

Morbo: LOUD NOISES! (Just following directions from the subheading)

Appa Yip Yip: ZiPS out here confirming my bias that George Springer is the best free agent fit for the Jays.

Tommy2: Don’t teams need to know whether or not the DH is universal before signing free agents?

Dan Szymborski: Technically, teams also needed to know if there were going to be 10 or 16 teams in the playoffs before the season started last year, but yeah.

VladZ: Does Bauer go short term (as in 1 year) if it means significantly more per? Is that better risk/value for team?

Dan Szymborski: If there’s a huge deal out there, I think he takes it. But if it’s disappointing due to pandemic, I can see him doing the one-year thing he’s threatened to.

Appa Yip Yip: What would you do if ZiPS projected skyline chili to win MVP

Dan Szymborski:

Bob: COVID has me alone on thanksgiving. What do I eat. How do I operate a “stove”

Dan Szymborski: Crank the nob and get some fire going!

TomBruno23: As a BFIB how excited should I be about this off-season after the Wong buyout? 1-10 where 1 is the winter of 87-88 when Steinbrenner “stole” Jack Clark during collusion and was replaced with Straight Outta Tokyo Bob Horner.

Dan Szymborski: Everyone should have all the meh you can muster.

Sonny: I don’t wish I’ll on anyone, but if jerry reinsdorf was suddenly no longer a part of the White Sox, how many games would Tony La Russa manage in 2021?

Dan Szymborski: 0

Lawful Evil: Is coleslaw in between two pieces of breaded chicken a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, though an odd one.

TomBruno23: Jed Hoyer married a woman whose family lives next door to my friend in a posh St. Louis suburb. How about that?

Guest: Should Padres ownership be looking for a new investor now that Fowler resigned?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really know their money situation in and out!

Dbo: Are you going to buy a PS5 this year Dan?

Dan Szymborski: I hadn’t really intended to. I didn’t get a PS4 until fairly late in its life. There aren’t any exclusives that I want that won’t eventually filter to the PC.

Morbo: Does this frosty off-season increase the likelihood of labor strife and a work stoppage? Or are the owners wary of loosing more money due to a work stoppage and might therefore be more conciliatory in negotiations with the union?

Dan Szymborski: I think everyone’s nerves are frayed, which generlaly increases likelihood of strife

Dan Szymborski: I’ve yet to see people become more peaceful when facing economic stress!

JJ: Just read the Padres projections. ZiPS seems kinda down on Nola, no? Barely a .700 OPS?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS and Steamer are fairly close here. Nola’s not a young player and his breakout still isn’t *that* many PAs

Appa Yip Yip: Alejandro Kirk is going to crush his ZiPS projection between his meaty, powerful thighs.

Guest: I’m a little confused by the Jurickson Profar projection.  I’m surprised that a middling batting line and below average defense is getting him to 2.3 WAR.  Is he getting a lot of bonus points for positional flexibility?

Dan Szymborski: He can play 2B and a 103 projected OPS+ is not middling for a 2B

Tommy2: Did David Price get a ring for 2020?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know if he did, but he almost certainly got one.

Dan Szymborski: Teams give out rings like candy.

Dan Szymborski: When the Red Sox won that first one, like anyone affiliated with the team other than Voros got one.

Dave C: Mets will be better off without Cano, right?

Dan Szymborski: Depends what they do! I’d rather have the money than his services in their position though.

VladZ: If you had to give a percentage% sale/discount on free agents in this years market what would you give?

Dan Szymborski: 25%

Appa Yip Yip: PS5 processors are also melting all over the place.

TomBruno23: Unsolicited rec and I get no cut for this, LIDOM has been highly entertaining so far, and very cheap for the entire season.

Matt (Oceanside): Baseball fans should all by space suits for 2021 and then we don’t have to worry about Covid at the ball park! 🙂

Johnny5Alive: Mets fans obviously excited about the new ownership and actually kinda happy about Cano in terms of the possibilities, but do you really pay out Ace money to Bauer coming off 1 dominant year when the career track record is good not great?  Also, I think I would prefer mccannn to realmuto and use the money elsewhere since catcher contracts rarely work out.

Dan Szymborski: I think you’re underrating him a bit.

John: Kolten wong, 30 years old, all his pop in his bat is gone, stellar defense.  Non-tendered for 1/12.  What do you think happens?

Dan Szymborski: at this poitn, who knows?

Dbo: If my intent is to make a sandwich but I’m blind and accidentally leave the bread hinged then put the fillings in, is that a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: No. Sandwich construction is strict liability.

VanHalenII: What makes the Dodgers better than the Padres going into 2021?  Pitching?  Bottom of the lineup?

Dan Szymborski: Slightly better depth and slightly better top pitchers.

S: Zips question: Are you cross-validating the seasonal weights to account for the shortened 2020? I’m uncomfortable with the idea of extrapolating 600 PAs based on 200. If not, is cross validation a reasonable approach to pursue?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS isn’t extrapolating from 200.

Dan Szymborski: The approach that worked best for future projections, in 1981 to 1982, was treating it like it was mid-july and the were still ~50 games to be played, and running a rest-of-season projection to make the baseline.

Appa Yip Yip: What do you think the Mets do at second base now? They can’t commit to anyone long term because Cano has two more years on his contract, so luring anyone good is gonna be tough, but also they’re good enough to contend.

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s possible Cano doesn’t ever play another game for the Mets.

Dan Szymborski: One thing a hedge fund manager shoudl know is a sunk cost.

Dan Szymborski: Plus, it might not even be an issue – given the weakness of the option, there will very likely be some short-term options.

Mad Joe-Don: If I wanted to move the pitcher’s mound back, what’s the maximum distance before it’s disruptive to breaking balls? <6”?

Dan Szymborski: I think the tricky part is how well pitchers can adjust and I just don’t really know that.

DJ: With the lack of free agent options at 3B, do you think it would be feasible for a team to target DJ LeMahieu as a potential fit at the position? Maybe a team that shifts a bunch anyway?

Dan Szymborski: Feels like a bit of a waste.

Dan Szymborski: Some of his value is that he’s been a really good 2B

Dan Szymborski: Maybe if it shifts *another* dude to third.

Dan Szymborski: But just using him at third, that’s like buying a Ferrari and then having it repainted gray.

Appa Yip Yip: Why move the mound back when you can simply raise the bottom of the strike zone?

Dan Szymborski: I’d be more interested in deadening the ball.

Buck Farmers Only: If KC has extra money (and no real position player prospects breaking in this year), is there any harm loading up on cheap 1 year deals, especially if the free agent market tanks?

Dan Szymborski: Not really.

Dan Szymborski: Though the risk in KC is that they then get attached to the player.

Matt: Does Arozarena’s postseason performance have any impact on his zips projection?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

TomBruno23: Who plays you in the Randy Arozarena biopic?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I would be a character.

Dan Szymborski: And without Philip Seymour Hoffman, I don’t know who can capture my gravitas!

Mad Joe-Don: So you’re saying we need to be sneaky about moving mounds. Message received!

Buck Farmers Only: Can CJ Cron pull a Luke Voigt?

Dan Szymborski: That’s easier said than done!

John: dont keep us in suspense –  what do Arozarena’s ZIPs look like?  Mantle, bonds ?

Dan Szymborski: Part of the ZiPS season IS the suspense!

Dan Szymborski: If I give you guys all the good bits, what’s the fun of coming back to check!

Chris: Drew smyly got how much???

Dan Szymborski: I was surprised given his health record.

Tommy2: Will Dodgers ride with Lux and Taylor at 2B or make a move for  a more certain option?

Dan Szymborski: I think they probably roll with what they got there

Mad Joe-Don: Let’s do all of it! Move the mound, change the strike zone, deaden the ball, move the batter’s boxes, go nuts! Mere anarchy is loosed!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like changing multiple things at a time. You want to get an idea of the effects! And I’d use the minors to experiment.

Colby: Hey! I’m a senior in high school and want to get into the baseball world. I plan on studying Sports Management in college. Any tips or advice to give me?

Dan Szymborski: Network, network, network.

Dan Szymborski: And depending exactly on what you want to do, coding is a good skillset to have.

Dan Szymborski: and network, network, network!

Colby: Coding as in computer coding?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, though I don’t know exactly what you want to do!

Appa Yip Yip: Technically biopic should be pronounced bioPIC and not biOpic because it’s short for biographical picture but also bioPIC sounds dumb and blasphemous.

VanHalenII: Do you have any surprise team for 2021?

Dan Szymborski: hold the phone doris! Let’s see what the teams actually look like

TomBruno23: Speaking of networks is there anything more thrilling than winter headlines about naming rights to RSNs? Catch The Excitement.

Dan Szymborski: Given 2020, I’ll take boredom over headlines!

Dan Szymborski: “I want some excitement”

Dan Szymborski: “Murder Hornets Spread Newly Discovered COVID-20”

Matt (Oceanside): With 2020 being a limited year developmentally for young pitchers, do you see teams that rely on 2 or more young pitchers in their rotation having to stock-pile multiple arms just to get through 2021 if it is a full season? Thinking about innings pitched here. For example, no way Dustin May or Urias pitch 150-200 IP next year. Same with the Tigers rotation, Yikes!

Dan Szymborski: I think he definitely will see more four-inning specials and young pitchers possibly used in real mopup roles.

Colby: I haven’t particularly decided but I spend a lot of my time reading here on Fangraphs or Baseball Savant or even Baseball Reference. I love stats and the analytics and the behind the scenes of the sport. Something like that or even some kind of journalism would be something I would love to do.

Dan Szymborski: I would also urge you to take classes in college that give you additional skills otherwise.

Dan Szymborski: Don’t go all-in on a career in sports. Lots of stuff that is useful to sports is useful for other things as well!

Geust: Why hasn’t a team bought you yet?

Dan Szymborski: I like the field I work in. I still sell plenty of data — I just can’t offer any kind of advisory opinion and prices do not change for the team — but I don’t think working full-time for a team is a great fit.

Dan Szymborski: Working in media, I can go on whatever flights of statistical fancy I like.

Cat Latos: I AM FRIENDS WITH YOUR CATS

Matt (Oceanside): Favorite ballpark sandwich ever? Pre-Covid of course!

Dan Szymborski: Don’t really eat a lot of ballpark sandwiches. I’ll also go for pit beef in Baltimore, but Boog’s isn’t even elite pit beef.

Dan Szymborski: I do like a good ol’ classic hot dog or sausage, but not in a sandwich of course.

D: Please add Cal Quantrill to ZIPS projections for SD so I can make jokes about his teammate saying, “I am your father.”

Appa Yip Yip: Teams do not care to hire agents of chaos

Buck Farmers Only: Will the contraction of the minor league system have any short term effects on the major league season?  Maybe fewer spots for AAAA depth guys?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll be honest, I’m relaly not sure how everythign shakes out

Dan Szymborski: I think it’ll definitely squeeze out older organization guys.

Dan Szymborski: You know, the Dietrich Enns types

Buck Farmers Only: What would be the non-monetary compensation benefit that could put you over the edge for working for a major league team?  What if they gave you free access to the bullpen cart when games are not going on?

Dan Szymborski: I think they would have to give me a challenge that intrigues me.

Dan Szymborski: And be flexible with my living arrangements. I have zero desire to relocate full-time anywhere.

Matt (Oceanside): Man Dave, I was just thinking about the loss of the minor league season in 2020 and how bad that affects development. I know every team invited a bunch of players to their alternate sites over the season, but do you think that lost year will be affecting teams several years down the road?

Dan Szymborski: THe short-term stakes are probalby larger, but there’s a chance that a few guys who would have become big now don’t.

Al: Why haven’t the Tigers tried putting Boyd in the pen yet? It seems like such a perfect fit to me.

Dan Szymborski: I think it make sense to exhaust the possibility of a guy starting before you throw him in the bullpen.

Stevil: I took in a feral cat (number 4, for me) who I thought was 5-6 months old. Turns out he’s a year and a half and behaves like the character in the movie “Orphan” and pisses on everything, though he has now been neutered and should endure hormonal changes for the better in the coming weeks (fingers crossed). Is this kind of challenge similar to the one Perry Minasian faces? Easier? Worse?

Dan Szymborski: Heh, I’m not sure. One of the problems with feral cats can be socialization. They really don’t *want* to live inside if they’ve gone past a certain timeframe.

Dan Szymborski: Generally, the ones that will come in have to want to come in.

Dan Szymborski: Though neutering will likely help.

Morbo: Fbi you have to eat the hinge. Once the last connection between the top and bottom of the sandwich is severed it becomes a sandwich. At least according to our fearless leader, Dan

Mad Joe-Don: Is ‘eat the hinge’ the weirdest financial advice one could hear or the safest surfing advice?

Matt (Oceanside): Dan thanks for the chats by the way! During an off-season like this one, these chats are the only things that keep us sane! That and Zips! Get back to work! 🙂

Dan Szymborski: Hey, you’re getting four this week!

Dan Szymborski: would have been five, but I didn’t have power for 24 hours Sunday to Monday

Matt (Oceanside): Haha no worries, we appreciate you!

Dan Szymborski: That’s a little suspicious!

Dan Szymborski: There should be a constant struggle between writer and reader!

Dan Szymborski: I need to start including more non-specific threats in my writing.

Matt (Oceanside): @ Mad Joe-Don “eat the hinge” is definitely not the safest surfing advice

Cheese: Any surprising (ie, big) moves from the dodgers this offseason, or do you expect them to just tinker?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t expect them to blow the market away doing anything this winter. They did sign Betts during the season! And having the WS does make the pressure off.

Matt (Oceanside): Fine! Get back to work and give us 6 Zips, you still have a day and a half – Or fangraphs could man up and work weekends too 🙂

Guest: Shut up Dan, we appreciate you

Dan Szymborski:

Matt (Desertside): Gtfo maritime Matt

Matt (Dessertside): Shut up both of you, I got some cheescake to destroy.

Mad Joe-Don: Matt fight!

Matt (Oceanside): @ Matt in Desertside – Not my fault I am accidentally intelligent and witty this morning

Dan Szymborski: Fight!

Dan Szymborski: WHO WILL BE TOP MATT?

Matt (Oceanside): Has to be me, these cats copied my name – and I just referenced cats

Matt (Catside): Meow.

Matt (Desertside): I’ll throw a ****ing cactus at both of you bloated fellers

Uncle Traveling Matt: Don’t bring a knife to a Fraggle fight

Dan Szymborski: I’m just here for Mattbowl.

Matt (Oceanside): Dan already brought his knife, Dan wins, and I am a suck-up…must…have…more…zips!!!!

Cat Latos: My human is also named Mat

Dan Szymborski: There’s another ZiPS tomorrow!

Roberto Beers: A Dan. A man. A chat. Ahcanamanada

Matt (Oceanside): @ Cat Latos Touche you win @ Dan THANK YOU THANK YOU THANK YOU!!!!!

Matt (Desertside): Can it water boy! I guess you would know how to suck up…

Matt (DarkSide): Join our side. We have decaf

Guest: Dan, give us some Rockies 🔥  as we head into the holidays.

Dan Szymborski: I’m allowing these shenanigans because I’m a good mood.

Dan Szymborski: in a

Dan Szymborski: My water bill wasn’t super high!

Dan Szymborski: My quarterly water/sewage bill was super high last quarter

Dan Szymborski: I usually use about 30-35 hundred cubic feet of water per quarter and get a water/sewage bill between $300 and $350.

Dan Szymborski: Then suddenly it was 56 hundred last quarter! Which is way more water than I ever used before and it wasn’t apparent why. I checked the inside meter under the stairs and it wasn’t running on its own so I didn’t have an internal leak, so I was worried there was an underground pipe mess. But normal water usage this quarter!

Mad Joe-Don: To be fair, I did stop stealing your water.

Matt (Oceanside): Yes Dan! This is why I come to the chats, to hear about your water bill!!!

Matt (Desertside): You call impersonation shenanigans? Identity theft isn’t a joke, Dan!

TomBruno23: You ever check Twitter every 5 minutes and think, “Why am I doing this to myself?”

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: All the time

Zach: How do you determine the team release order for ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: Random number.

Stevil: Has there been any word on NPB players, such as Tetsuto Yamada, being posted this winter? I really wonder how Japanese teams might view the situation. On one hand, they have a chance to sell and get at least something after a year of loss(es). On the other hand, the money probably wouldn’t be significant and making their teams worse by allowing their best players to leave wouldn’t exactly inspire the fan base.

Dan Szymborski: Hasn’t been a ton yet past Kim

Guest: Have you ever audited your own projections. Of the players who did not sustain injuries – what percent overperformed and what % underperformed projections?

Dan Szymborski: Always do!

Dan Szymborski: And I usually share it if nobody else does!

Dan Szymborski: Had a three-part ZiPS review run last month

TomBruno23: Is a BOGO for Subway really a deal?

Dan Szymborski: I prefer BZGZ

Roberto Beers: What kind of random number? Hmmm? I feel like this question can get us in trouble.

Dan Szymborski: Here’s the official order!

Dan Szymborski:

Nate: What kind of role do you see guys like Samardzija getting in a bad financial situation? Is there someone that employs him as an innings eater, or is he a minor-league deal at this point?

Dan Szymborski: I can see him getting 1/5 or something

Guest: Advice for Colby: Don’t get a sports management degree; I’ve heard they are generally looked down on in the industry. Get a more general/useful degree, and within that degree try to get the skills you need to work in the industry.

Appa Yip Yip: ZiPS has always been light on Gurriel Jr, but it gave him a good projection this year. Do you think it’s still light on him though? Dude hits.

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, it’s a preetty good projection

Roberto Beers: No numbers starting with 0.1 is neat.

Dan Szymborski: I know, I know, PSEUDOrandom

VanHalenII: Does ZIPS account for Kike Hernandez’s effect on teammates shoulder joints?  Gotta be like a 0.2 WAR deduction on players who hit home runs and then get injured during celebrations.

Dan Szymborski: heh

Dan Szymborski: and inc ase it’s a serious quesiton, no!

VanHalenII: all of my questions are serious… more or less… or mostly less

Colby: I’ve been interested in Economics and maybe marketing. Would something like that be better or more useful? Maybe even something like Analytics/Statistics or Journalism?

Dan Szymborski: STEM degrees are always useful

Dan Szymborski: I’d personally shy away from journalism

Dan Szymborski: Unless you can get a journalism degree from an Ivy League school, I think the decimation of media has made it not make sense for anyone who didn’t.

Dan Szymborski: The normal career progression has been really choked.

Roberto Beers: AAAHHHAAAA! How dare you hide thus terrible secret from us. With this information we all now know the truth. These pseudoprojections are nothing more than pseudopossibilities of many pseudofutures. Pseudodan, you’re finished

Dan Szymborski: Hey, we know that almost everything that is random is pseudorandom!

Matt (Oceanside): Economics degree with a comp science minor could be pretty useful @ Cody.

Colby: Those are two things that I have actually considered!

Nate: Marlins seem like a team poised to make some fun, blockbuster moves. Do you think they pull the trigger on anything major?

Dan Szymborski: I suspect know, but the Marlins over the years have beaten any of the optimism out of me

Matt (Oceanside): @ Colby (my fault on the misspell), that and watch money ball like a hundred times….”he gets on base”

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time to depart for another week!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!