Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 11/7/16

Dan Szymborski: Main screen turn on.

Dan Szymborski: Been a few weeks since I did a chat – first I was away and then I haven’t been very social (lost a cat very suddenly and unexpectedly). No chat this week (traveling), but should hopefully settle into a normal pattern during the ZiPS Season.

JD15: Yesterday the Cubs declined the option on Jason Hammel which seemed very reasonable considering current market. Even if they didn’t plan to use him next year, wouldn’t it have made sense to pick up the option and trade him? Do you think this is Cubs trying to be “good people” by allowing Hammel to pick his own team (and make more money) or is it more likely medical related?

Dan Szymborski: And I’m holding the off-topics for the Lightning Round, for those that forgot.

Dan Szymborski: I would have picked up the option. Since they had a $2 million buyout anyway, it was essentially an option to pick up Hammel at 1/8, which I absolutely would have taken.

Dan Szymborski: I believe it was a mistake to not pick it up.

Rick Roll: Baseball is a collection of unnatural movements designed to injure all the things.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Blue Eyes: Any comments on Brent Honeywell after his Fall Star game start?

Dan Szymborski: Screwballs are awesome.

Bork: Any non-predicted qualifying offers issued today?

Dan Szymborski: If I answered that, then I would be predicting and thus it would non-non-predicted!

Cinclair: Hey dan. Love these chats. Can you tell me out of these 3 contracts, which have positive trade value, and by approximately how much: Granderson at 15mil/1yr, Bruce at 13mil/1yr and Lagares at 20mil/3yrs (+9mil club option). Thank you, much appreciated

Dan Szymborski: Bruce probably not, he’s just not that good. Lagares isn’t a bad value at all given there’s a chance that he comes back healthy. Granderson ought to be worth his contract by a few million, I think.

Minty: Not trying to get a ZiPS out of you, but based on your gut does Baez ever develop offensive consistency?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah

Robin: How many “Trout for X” questions do you think we’ll have to suffer through each chat? Some of the in season ones basically became as miserable as the trolls asking you about Markakis

Dan Szymborski: Very few, I mostly get Nick Markakis quesetions.

Josh: A likely Andrew McCutchen trade seems a bit overblown to me. It’s not as if the team is floundering – they’ll likely be competing for a playoff spot. Seeing as though Meadows isn’t quite ready, does a trade mid-summer or next winter make more sense?

Dan Szymborski: You can’t predict what future time a trade will be best that well, it depends on the offers. I *would* be inclined to trade him fairly soon, probably this winter if someone stillr eally believes in him.

Dan Szymborski: It’s really tiem to get him out of center.

Ethan: Hi Dan. What do you and/or ZiPS think of Carlos Gomez? Burnt out, washed up, etc., or do you think there’s still a good, dynamic player in there somewhere? Seems like he’s flying under the radar right now, even in this weak FA market, and some team might get a steal by signing him to a cheap, short-term deal.

Dan Szymborski: He was actually quite solid for a couple months at the end – I’d wager hte gets a fairly inexpensvie two-year deal and is a decent stopgap for someone.

Jim: The Depth Charts projections for the Red Sox’ DH spot make me sad inside. Assuming Encarnacion prices himself out of range, is Valbuena a suitable target?

Dan Szymborski: Interesting, but I’m not sure EE can price himself out of range of teams like the Red Sox.

Ethan: Any thoughts on Carson Kelly? He had a much better year with the bat, and is continuing that trend with the relatively few PAs he’s gotten in the Fall League. Everybody raves about his defense, but I’m not sure how much to believe that or not; catcher defense is so dang hard to quantify.

Dan Szymborski: I’m cautiously optimistic – he did show large improvements offensively in the minors this year.

Dan Szymborski: DISCLAIMER: I was cautiously optimistic about Bryan Anderson

Toki: With such a thin market for FA starters do the Cubs move Arrieta? Rather than use up his arbitration this year and lose him in free agency?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Go Braves: Would Steve Matz or Zack Wheeler be a realistic trade target for Ender Inciarte? Or would we have to aim a notch below, say, for Robert Gsellman?

Dan Szymborski: Wheeler maybe, given the sizable risk involved. Matz, probably not.

Sean P: After the World Series, Miguel Montero went on a Chicago radio station and complained about not receiving more playing time in the World Series. Assuming that he is slotted in as the backup next year, do you think the Cubs consider appeasing Montero’s concerns surrounding playing time and try to trade him? If so, does Montero have any trade value at this point?

Dan Szymborski: Montero has little trade value and I doubt the Cubs give him more playing time.

Doc Halliday : Chances the Jays resign Edwin?

Dan Szymborski: 40/60 against.

5 Run Homer: Where do EE and Joey Bats sign?

Dan Szymborski: Blue Jays probably plurality favorite for EE. I could have seen Bautista in Texas if not for events between the two parties.

Cub Fan: What are the chances the Cubs sign Chapman or Kenley considering they have a lot of money to spend and not that many places to spend it?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really have a read on where the Cubs are going here.

ryan: do you have a description of ZiPS methodology?

Dan Szymborski: There’s a ZiPS Q&A around. I talk about stuff a lot, but I hate writing dry things.

Josh: Brett Anderson make sense for the Bucs?

Dan Szymborski: If a pillow deal.

DN: Any idea when the contract crowdsourcing data will be published?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not involved in day-to-day!

A. Reitz: RE: Jason Hammel option…I think I read that you can’t trade a player until AFTER june if they accept/take the QO. Or maybe that’s just team options…

Dan Szymborski: The no-trade clause applies to players signed under baseball’s FA rules in Article XX after the quiet period.

Dan Szymborski: So Hammel would not have one.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Blue Eyes: Speaking of screwballs, is there a bonus to throwing a pitch that hitters rarely see? I guess it would explain the eephus.

Dan Szymborski: Possibly.

Joe: So ZiPS seemed fairly optimistic about the Pirates for next year. What direction should they take to address the rotation? Continue dumpster diving for hidden gems or should they make a play for a cost-controlled #2-3 type guy via trade?

Dan Szymborski: They hvae a good record for dumpster diving.

James: Braves sign Castro, Hammell, and Peavy.. How much better would they be?

Dan Szymborski: They’d be the favorite over the Phillies for fourth place.

Erik: How many more world series would it be reasonable to project this core or Cubs to reach? Is anything higher than 1 crazy?

Dan Szymborski: They probably don’t go into any season with more than 20% chacne.

romorr: I think the Orioles need to get the Manny contract situation figured out ASAP. I know it sounds absurd, but trading him this off season, along with Britton, Tillman, Jones, Hardy, could really jump start the rebuild. Basically my question is, is a Manny extension in the cards anymore for the Orioles? And if not, what do you do for 2017 and beyond?

Dan Szymborski: I’m worried it isn’t. I’d be inclined to trade him this year if the Orioles are not competitive.

Guest: Does anyone know what the Braves are planning to do this offseason? For that matter, do the Braves know what they’re going to do this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: They’re in a very dangerous period – there’s a risk they decide the rebuilding is farther along than it actually is.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they know yet.

Toki: What do you think the Cubs do in CF? Trade for one of Blackmon, Inciarte, or Eaton resign Fowler or internal option?

Dan Szymborski: They’ll look at the options, but they were fine with Heyward in centerfield before Fowler fell back into their lap.

Gopherballs: Don’t vote Bork. He wants to make games longer and ban mustard at the ballpark condiments bar. Vote Gopherballs. He wants to shorten games and require at least two kinds of mustard at every park.

DodgerTown: Urias and AGon to the Braves for Freeman, Folty, Newcomb, and Allard?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think either team does it.

Zonk: Local Chicago writer reports that the White Sox are listening on “everybody”. This would indicate a rebuilding direction. Would you agree with this course for the White Sox?

Dan Szymborski: At htis point, yes.

Erhan: What do you see the Mets’ offseason looking like?

Dan Szymborski: Desperate attempt to sign Cespedes and then confused water-trading if they can’t

Logan: How about my Dodgers get younger at 1st base, trade AGon, Bellinger, and DeLeon to Atlanta for Freeman and couple prospects?

Dan Szymborski: Probably more realistic. I dont’ think the Dodgers part with Urias easily

Andrew: Matz for McCutchen – who says no?

Dan Szymborski: That’s actually fairly interesting.

johnforthegiants: Am I about to witness the third Chicago sports dynasty (Bulls & Blackhawks) in my lifetime? If you say yes, I promise not to be an assclown.

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: but baseball dynasty terms

Aladdin Sane: How much is Alex Cobb worth in trade? What would an extension look like? The Cubs have been repeatedly connected to him for over a year despite his impending free agency not fitting their 2018 and beyond rotation hole, so I wonder if they are trying to get him at a discount and lock him up.

Dan Szymborski: I think the Rays want to see him healthy and then try to trade him.

The Decadent Moose: Peak batting: Benintendi or Bregman?

Dan Szymborski: I will benintentionally pick the former.

DN: Does your answer to Go Braves mean that Wheeler has more trade value than Gsellman?

Dan Szymborski: it’s tough – there’s likely to be a lot of variance in evaluation of Wheeler. We don’t really *know* what his arm is like and even the Mets probably don’t

JT: Lance berkman signed with the rangers like a year after bashing the team hard

CamdenWarehouse: Cameron thinks we’ll see 9 figures for a reliever. Do you agree?

Dan Szymborski: No

5 Run Homer: Greg Holland. Discuss.

Dan Szymborski: The proper name is Greg Netherlands.

Kyler: Dansby Swanson looked good in his stay with the big club at the end of the year. Chances he’s a 2+ win player this year?

Dan Szymborski: Quite good

Q-Ball: Aren’t Jansen and Turner inevitably going to stay on the Dodgers? Dodgers have need and a mountain of cash, and both players have said they like L.A. This should happen, right?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s very likely they retain.

PieTraynee: Do you feel that Kang has a 5+ WAR season or two in him if he can stay healthy? 40 homeruns?

Dan Szymborski: Probably a little too aggressive for me.

Dan Szymborski: Gotta see if he can stay healthy and remember, he turns 30 early next season

Dan Szymborski: I’d be more comfortable saying one than two

Three Hamburgers: Trey Amburguey has an 80 name tool, no? Asking for Steve Martin.

Dan Szymborski: Amburgey-Bargy was a Squeeze album.

romorr: Think the Orioles open up the wallet for someone like Reddick? Rickard/Reddick platoon in RF sounds nice. Or are we looking at a not so nice platoon of Bourn/Rickard.

Dan Szymborski: I would really hope the Orioles never go into an offseason in which significant time next year for Rickard is a Plan A.

Dan Szymborski: One year platoon splits are essentially worthless – Rickard’s minor league platoon splits are fairly normal, even slightly to the smaller side than typical.

Dan Szymborski: And I don’t think Reddick signs a deal with a team with the intention of platooning him.

Zonk: With Ruben Amaro Jr. and Dave Stewart gone, what FO now do we direct our sabermatic bullying at?

Dan Szymborski: It’s wide open! Probably Rockies

Sharp: Who do you take right now from the Pirates outfield (given contract and everything)? Is it possible that McCutchen is the least desirable of the three?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: Not just possible, is. I’d trade less for McCutchen than I would for Marte of Polanco.

Gopherballs: What do you think will be the biggest change to the final CBA?

Dan Szymborski: I t hink in the end they decide to just tinker around the edges.

AM: Bigger FA contract offer: Chapman, Jansen or Melancon?

Dan Szymborski: Chapman

Minty: Do you have more hope for Baez or Heyward at the plate?

Dan Szymborski: Baez

Zonk: What teams should consider shifting to rebuild mode, from contention mode?

Dan Szymborski: White Sox definitely

Dan Szymborski: Probalby Tigers, they’re already threaten to retool, but I don’t think they have the assets for that anymore.

Erik: Which non playoff team spends the most money this off-season? Are they also the non playoff team most likely to make it next year?

Dan Szymborski: Yankees I think. They have more money to play with and had to be unusually responsible at the trade deadline for the Levine bunch.

Rex: Out of curioisity- at this point, what do you think the odds are of Asdrubal Cabrera’s 8.5 million 2018 club option being exercised ?

Dan Szymborski: Decent actually

CamdenWarehouse: Are there any big names that you expect to be traded?

Dan Szymborski: I think Braun goes.

romorr: I have a hard time seeing Peter spend 300 million on Manny. I also know Oriole fans might riot if hes traded. So how do you see this playing out in the next few year.

Dan Szymborski: Sadly, I expect the O’s to play out the string and just get a sandwich pick after a QO.

Debbie: Do you think teams could buy low on DeGrom? What would it cost?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Keith: Well how would you handle things if you were Coppy? Continue to sell off our remaining core players? Does the the New Park factor at all? Improving is good right? Around 500 in 17′ and then playoffs in 18′

Dan Szymborski: Playoffs in ’18 still strikes me as optimistic, as does 500 next year.

Dan Szymborski: If they wanted to build a team to go along with the new park, they should’ve started rebuilding earlier.

O’s Nos : Does Baltimore acquire a decent pitcher this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: No

romorr: Joseph/Pena until midseason when Chance gets a shot, or sign a Castro/Hundley and let Sisco play out the year at AAA?

Dan Szymborski: I see a stopgap signing as more likely

Andrew: Primary candidate to challenge the Mets for Cespedes?

Dan Szymborski: Orioles were aggressive last year, I see no reason they change their mind.

Dan Szymborski: Just a note, I’m not doing politics questions in Lightning Round. Internet Politics Talk is terrible.

John S: Which team has the bleakest 5 year outlook?

Dan Szymborski: Royals. They’ll be OK in 2017, but most of the team is a FA after that.

Tony: O/U on Cubs championships between 2016-2026: 2.5

Dan Szymborski: Under.

Stats: Are baseball careers mostly unit root (i.e. big changes tend to be permanent) for younger players and mean-regressing for older?

Dan Szymborski: Depends. You do sometimes see shifts, but older players don’t generally fundamentally change who they are.

Paul Molitor Cocktail: Is Sano better in 2017? Does he stand around 3B until Mauer’s contract mercifully expires?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, I would hope not.

CamdenWarehouse: Can the Orioles improve their OF defense?

Dan Szymborski: Galvanized trashcans in the corners would improve their OF defense.

Keith: Reported that Phils just extended QO to Hellickson. Good move?

Dan Szymborski: Perfeclty decent. You can overpay on a one-year deal.

mike sixel: Dozier return Urias or De Leon, and due to pitcher uncertainty, would the Twins want more?

Dan Szymborski: Yes and they wouldn’t.

JT: The white sox are possibly the most frustrating team of the past five years. I say that because they have had a young cost controlled core of sale, Abreu, Quintana and eaton yet refuse to spend money on average/replacement level players to fill out the roster. Theyre doing it backwards!

Dan Szymborski: They’ve had chances to be good, but I think the moment is lost.

Dan Szymborski: I actually thought they’d be able to cobble together a decent year in 2016.

Dan Szymborski: But without aggressive spending, I think they can’t now.

Tom: What’s your choice for the best baseball game during your lifetime? How about the best one you’ve seen in person?

Dan Szymborski: In person, final game at Memorial just because. Game I most remember is 1986 WS Game 6.

Dan Szymborski: Game 5 wasn’t as tense through most of the game.

Eric: O’s offer a low level prospect or two for Markakis?

Dan Szymborski: No.

A Tribe Called Kipnis: What is Cleveland’s biggest offseason priority?

Dan Szymborski: 1B. Despite the homers, Napoli was hardly great and hope they do be a little more ambitous than that

Nick: Sale for Urias and Verdugo a good start for a trade?

Dan Szymborski: If that’s a start, Dodgers probably don’t do it. If they would, they’d probably have Cole Hamels right now.

CamdenWarehouse: Remember the 2005 O’s outfield? http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2005.shtml – that was rough

Zonk: Aside from the obvious prizes in Sale and Quintana, are their other White Sox vets with trade value? Frazier, Abreu, perhaps?

Dan Szymborski: Frazier has some trade value, though it’s obviously dropped.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the White Sox will trade Abreu if they’re not bowled over and I don’t think they’d be bowled over.

Kristen: With Darvish leaving after ’17 and no sure-thing SP prospects in the pipeline, chances TEX dangles Odor in a trade for a much-needed good young SP this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so, they intend to win now.

A Tribe Called Kipnis: I wanted to ask this last week but you were not around: Who wins the World Series?

Dan Szymborski: The winner of the World Series is the first team to win four games in a set of games against the other league’s champion that can be extended up to seven games.

kevinthecomic: Does the player’s union take a firm stand regarding earlier free agency/less suppression of pay for young players now that most, if not all, teams are paying free agents for what they are projected to produce as opposed to what the back of the baseball card says?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: Reality is the MLBPA is at its weakest point in nearly 40 years. If they get any major concessions to their side, I’d be surprised.

ohioastrosfan: How early do you think about locking up the stars if you’re the Astros? Correa, Springer, Altuve, Bregman…. can’t have them all right?

Dan Szymborski: As soon as I can.

$11 Worth of Taco Bell: What type of return does a Wade Davis trade bring back?

Dan Szymborski: I think they could snag a prospect in the 30-50 range very easily and a couple extras.

Q-Ball: Jorge Soler figures to be available in trade. What trade value does he still have?

Dan Szymborski: Not much.

Vanimal: More likely Twin to get traded this off-season: Brian Dozier or Ervin Santana?

Dan Szymborski: Santana I think. Still remains to see just how much autonomy the new FO will have to trade Dozier

The Decadent Moose: Now I’m excited about the White Sox possible fire sale. What’s the return on Sale? Future picks? Prospects? Established, but controlled MLB player? Dark Magumbo to add years to Reinsdorf’s life?

Dan Szymborski: I expect the White Sox, if they did rebuild, given the current management/ownership, to focus more on near-majors high-floor/low-ceiling types.

Q-Ball: What do the Dodgers need to do this offseason?

Dan Szymborski: Use cashvantage to patch holes.

Kristen: With TEX’s window possibly closing with Darvish and Lucroy gone after ’17 and Beltre after ’18, will/should TEX go into firesale mode at the deadline if they’re out of it?

Dan Szymborski: If they’re out of it, yes

Andrew: Arenado v. Machado?

Dan Szymborski: Machado by a slender hair.

Big Joe Mufferaw: Realistic % that Trout gets trade this off-season?

Dan Szymborski: 5

Slew: Would you make the QO to Napoli?

Dan Szymborski: No

Andrew: How different is all this McCutchen talk now if he had had a typical season in 2016 (~6 WAR)

Dan Szymborski: Well, if things were different, they wouldn’t be the same, no?

CamdenWarehouse: The Sox could probably still get more for Frazier than the Reds did

Dan Szymborski: Not exactly a high bar

Neil: What kind of player is Michael Conforto?! I can’t figure it out

Dan Szymborski: Neither can the Mets since they’re so impatient about actually finding out.

Xolo: Stick a fork in Tyson Ross?

Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly quite risky now.

Xolo: Thoughts on Bud Black to the Rockies?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll be fine. Field management isn’t Colorado’s issue.

CamdenWarehouse: Do you think we’ll be talking about Qualifying Offers next year?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Joe: Sale to the Nats for Turner, Giolito and Robles? Who says no?

Dan Szymborski: Nats

Dan Szymborski: Sale at 3/38 is extremely valuable. But it’s not unlimited value and losing 25% of your K rate in a year *is* at least a ligh yellow flag.

Devil Ray J. Johnson Jr.: White Sox have to replace Avisail Garcia with Jorge Soler, right? This must happen.

Dan Szymborski: In the end, I can’t see it making enough of a difference even if it did happen

Q-Ball: Sale for Yoan Moncada. Who hangs up?

Dan Szymborski: Straight up? White Sox.

Andrew: “Reality is the MLBPA is at its weakest point in nearly 40 years.” Why?

Dan Szymborski: The leadership of Miller/Fehr was a key drive of MLB gains.

Dan Szymborski: When was the last time the MLBPA stood firm at a point?

Dan Szymborski: The owners very successfully have used hot-button issues as a cudgel to weaken and separate the union.

Dan Szymborski: For example, it’s good for MLB to address issues of domestic violence, but Marvin Miller would have *never* let the MLBPA agree to a penalty of “whatever the %^@# the commissioner says arbitrarily.”

Q-Ball: What is Colorado’s issue?

Dan Szymborski: Ownershop/front office.

Dan Szymborski: Not doing anything at the trade deadline was malpractice.

Pessimistic White Sox Fan: When does baseball get rid of September roster expansion. Ever?

Dan Szymborski: They might tinker, but I don’t see it going away.

Owen: Do the Red Sox stick with Sandoval/Shaw/Holt at 3B and hope Moncada comes along midyear in case those guys fail? What *should* they do?

Dan Szymborski: I thin kthat’s what they do and given the chances of Moncada, it may very well be the optimal

John S: why are the yankees holding onto Tanaka when he’s just going to opt out? seems like they should cash him in.

Dan Szymborski: Cashman would only have been allowed to go so far in a rebuild. I’m shocked they let him go as far as they did.

The Decadent Moose: Could the Cardinals be close to a Sale trade with Luke Weaver, Grichuk, Matt Adams and some kids in MiLB?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Cards can get Sale without including Reyes.

Dan Szymborski: I actually think in the end, Sale doesn’t get traded.

Dan Szymborski: Because I have little faith in the White Sox relenting and trading Sale for the packages at which they’ll be offered for Sale.

romorr: Pearce done enough to finally get a multi year deal? I really want the Orioles to nab him on a two year deal to DH. Or do you think the Orioles do a Mancini/Alvarez for DH next year.

Dan Szymborski: I’d love to have Pearce on a two year deal.

VG: Sale has spoken about dialing back his pursuit of Ks. Does that affect your view of him? Also, what do you think of the notion that the White Sox would be lucky if a tear down produced a cost-controlled core as good as Sale/Q/Eaton/Rodon/Abreu, and therefore, they should try to fix the holes instead?

Dan Szymborski: I know that, but whatever the motivation, it’s still a risk.

Dan Szymborski: And his hard-hit percentage went way up from his career.

Q-Ball: Tanaka has negative trade value though, doesn’t he? Because if he blows out his arm or fails this year, you are on the hook for 3 years, $67 mil. more. That’s huge risk.

Dan Szymborski: If he were a free agent, I think he does better than 3/67.

Darrin: Carlos Martinez and a prospect for Ender Inciarte?

Dan Szymborski: That’s too rich if I’m the Cardinals

Dan Szymborski: OK, one o clock so let’s go Lightning Round.

Doc Halliday : Sorry about your cat. How are the others doing?

Dan Szymborski: The others are fine. The 12-year-old tortie, who just recently had a flawless checkup, was playing in the hallway chasing a moth when I went to bed about 1 AM.

Dan Szymborski: She was dead in the hallway when I went to the bathroom at 3. It was quite a shock. Vet didn’t see any signs of poison and believes it was a sudden cardiac-type event that wasn’t apparent in normal examination (there was no reason to do a deeper scan at the time)

S: Thoughts on Sombra?

Dan Szymborski: About damn time considering how long it’s been teased. Thankfully the invisibility is short-term, I’m in constant worry that OW will introduce a TF2 spy-like character.

Young Savage: Druid has to be reevaluated after these past two weekends right? Its just not as good as people think, I mean how did I get reverse swept with it.

Dan Szymborski: It can draw uneven sometimes. It’s still a good deck.

Ben Brode: What are your initial thoughts on the new expansion for hearthstone? Maybe unicorn priest is actually just dragon priest 2.0 ?

Dan Szymborski: So far so good. I’m glad to see Priest actually get something interesting for a change.

Dan Szymborski: And the cards help Control-type decks too

Slew: How happy are you that the election is almost over?

Andrew: Lightning round: biscuit or busket?

Dan Szymborski: Very, though I’m not answering political Qs generally!

Dan Szymborski: What the heck is a busket?

Dan Szymborski: We seem to be light on the off-topic Qs this week, so ending the Lightning Round.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everyone. As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and proejctions here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.