Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 1/18/16

Dan Szymborski: Fritter away one of your remaining hours of existence in fancy-but-futile fashion! It’s the Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat!

Zonk: The most regrettable FA signings of the offseason might be the two made over the weekend. Do you think that’s the case?

Dan Szymborski: I think Davis is overpaid, but I don’t think that’s the big regret – the issue with Davis contract is more the O’s other issues.

Dan Szymborski: But Kennedy seems to be a source of possible regret

Dan Szymborski: There really aren’t many awful signings this winter.

NutButters: If I am Brian Ashman, should I try to convince Doug Fister to sign for 1 year as a swingman to attempt replacing Warren? If not, where does he end up?

Dan Szymborski: THink he’ll still get a starting job. Too many teams remaining like O’s that need another starter.

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: Both the Brewers and Reds figure to have a moribund few years with entering obvious rebuilds, and the other three NLC teams being so good. Who do you think makes a quicker return to serious playoff contention?

Dan Szymborski: Brewers, I think, but still too early to tell. The Reds started the rebuilding later than the Brewers did.

Dan Szymborski: REds could’ve been faster, but they wasted their opportunities to get value for their players

Q-Ball: The markets for Fowler and Kendrick are reportedly very thin. What’s your take on where they might be a fit? The chances of Fowler going back to the Cubs on a 1-year deal look greater than zero, don’t they?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a fan of FA predictions simply because there are so many ways things can end up

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Fowler takes a 1-year deal to return to Cubs simply because if he signs a 1-year deal, he’s not going to want to be a 4th outfielder too.

Dan Szymborski: Fact is, Cubs are going to give Heyward ever opportunity to play center unless they give up on Soler in some way

Zonk: If Reyes is guilty, I hope they throw the book at him. Secretly, aren’t the Rockies actually hoping he gets deported? Saves money, and takes a real PR problem off their hands.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it’s the probably the best opportunity for the Rockies.

goldy the gopher: Evan Drelich reported yesterday that Chris Correa of the Cardinals told authorities of his communicating the data theft to other members of the front office. Are the Cardinals not really kind of downplaying this whole mess? When you step back and look at it, this was really an egregious violation of fair play was it not?

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: Jeff gave a good answer to this question the other day, but I’d like your opinion here too: What do you make of the whole Chris Correa/Cardinals hacking situation? Do you think any discipline is coming to the Cards? I’d think that to be consistent with the theme of maintaining the integrity of the game that MLB espouses so vehemently any time there is a notable PED incident, they kind of have to mete out discipline here, right?

Dan Szymborski: As I’ve said before, it’s something you dont’ deal with until all the investigations are done and all the details they’re likely to get are out.

Dan Szymborski: There’s no pressing need to punish the Cardinals right now versus punish them later.

Dan Szymborski: I would be surprised if, in the end, the Cardinals get away without some kind of penalty.

Jon: The Cubs have a DH in Left field but a roster otherwise filled with versatile players and manager in Joe Maddon generally considered excellent at in-game strategy. Would the Cubs be more at an advantage in relation to the National League if the NL adopted the DH tomorrow or if they did not and preserved NL-style late game strategy?

Dan Szymborski: The Cubs would do well, simply because they have good depth.

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: Will Smith for Austin Hedges, who hangs up first?

Dan Szymborski: Should be the Padres, but they might not because they’re in tread water mode.

Art Vandelay: Who would’ve thought the Bobby Bonilla deferred contract would be the deal du jour of this offseason? I know it’s not the same situation, but I can’t remember many (if any) of these deals happening and then we got two big ones in the same offseason.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not really the same thing at all. There’s a gigantic difference between deferring money at 8% and deferring money at 0%

Cory S.: What is Marlins end-game? They sign a good pitcher, but still want to trade one of their better OF (which lacks depth). Yelich isn’t a CF.

Dan Szymborski: They try to be an 84-win team, fail, and trade Gordon and Chen next winter.

Dan Szymborski: They’re thrashing.

Phil: Are we going to see Julio Urias or Jose Deleon in major this season?

Dan Szymborski: I think they at least get espressos down the stretch.

Dan Szymborski: Is the plural of espresso espressos? Or espressi? Or just espresso?

Q-Ball: Tigers and White Sox have protected first-round picks…if the price drops, wouldn’t Dexter Fowler make sense for both teams?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Art Vandelay: Are you interested in watching the 434 minute Godfather Epic? 1 and 2 combined with all the deleted scenes.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I don’t like the resorting in chronological order

Dan Szymborski: The flashbacks are chosen to intersperse with scenes in the presents to make parallels and commentary. You lose that when you reshuffle

Dan Szymborski: I mean it’s not as bad as reshuffling Slaughterhouse-Five would be, but pretty bad

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: There seems to be a fair amount of backlash coming out with several teams in the NL undergoing rebuilding processes, with nobody really doing so in the AL. The negativity seems a bit misguided, don’t you think? What other choice do teams like the Braves/Phillies/Brewers/Reds etc. have? Spend a ton of money inefficiently to buy themselves into contention, likely fail, then have an even bigger mess on their hands that they’ll have to spend more time rebuilding from? Just sour grapes from AL team executives who, by and large, won’t have guaranteed patsies to beat up on while some of their NL counterparts will?

Dan Szymborski: They don’t. These teams have a choice to either suck in a way that helps the future or just suck.

Dan Szymborski: The fact that the AL has parity and the NL has the best teams makes rebuilding in the NL simply smarter than in the AL

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: Favorite winter beer?

Dan Szymborski: Type of question that I will give different answers on different days in different moods. Right now, Great Lakes Christmas Ale?

Dan Szymborski: Shoot, meant to star these for Lightning ROund. Sorry, slow today

Dan Szymborski: (Me, not the chat)

Bork: So Ian Kennedy signed a surprising deal. Odds are Gallardo will sign a similar contract. Who will be worth more for the length of it and how disappointed will their teams be?

Dan Szymborski: I’m pretty sour on Gallardo – that K rate declining every year is frightenning.

spudchukar: Your opinion of Cards’ 2015 rookie outfielders, Grichuk, Piscotty, and Pham?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll all have value, but the firs ttwo have more upside

Dan: With Fredi Gonzalez already stating that the ATL closer job is Grilli’s to lose, is there any chance that Vizcaino still wins it in spring training?

Dan Szymborski: No, I think Grilli gets first shot regardless. The Braves are going to stink in 2016 by design, so no need to inflate Vizcaino’s long-term salaries yet.

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: So, your boys just gave a ton of money to Chris Davis (though a good amount of it will be Bonilla’d). I get the impression that the O’s were one of the AL teams that could stand to rebuild, but they’re kind of “all-in” with this one now, right? Good or bad decision?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a good decision if there’s actually a follow-up. If not, they’re essentially the 2015 teams with a couple extra hitters instead of their beest pitcher.

Dan Szymborski: But it’s good they got off the fence

Bork: It would obviously be hugely disliked by the Jays fans, but does signing Upton and letting Bautista walk at the end of the year make sense for them?

Dan Szymborski: As always, contracts vary and can’t answer in a vacuum.

ASM : How great were the 2008 Toronto Blue Jays? I’ll hang-up and listen. Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: One of the great modern underachievers.

Zonk: Using ZIPS, how much did the Orioles overpay for Chris Davis, in your opinion?

Dan Szymborski: About $30

Dan Szymborski: million. ZiPS is obviously not precise enough to decide $30

Chris : Would the Jays consider trading dickey and prospects for Sale, or even EE?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, but the White Sox would not right now and if they were in a position that they wanted to, they don’t have much of a reason to want Dickey.

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: Do either of Cespedes and/or Upton take under $100M at the end of the offseason?

Dan Szymborski: Only in a short-term deal. I think people are too quick to decide they’re doomed.

J: Thoughts on Leake contract?

Dan Szymborski: Fairly priced and deciding un-sexy.

Dan Szymborski: decidedly

Skarp Hedin: Isn’t the core argument for the feasibility of +30%k rates and +15% swstr rates that there has been nothing more than an aesthetic aversion to them in the past? And that this aversion led to players behaving in ways not optimal for performance? I am trying to figure out why people are so ahistorical in their views on this subject…

Dan Szymborski: I’m actually not quite sure what you’re asking as I don’t know what you’re referencing.

Craig in Chicago: Avisail for Jay Bruce, who says “No”?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t see the purpose of this trade for the Reds

Dan Szymborski: Which of course, isn’t necessarily a disqualifier.

MSW: What would be better for the Mets, signing Cespedes now at the cost of whatever his contract is, or waiting until midseason to acquire a bat at the cost of minor leaguers in a thinning farm system?

Dan Szymborski: Probably signing him now, but they may feel more comfortable trading value than dollars.

Brett W: How many dollars will Justin Upton be guaranteed this winter?

Dan Szymborski: Multiple.

j6takish: Why do teams hate hitters so much?

Dan Szymborski: They don’t, the ones remaining just aren’t that exciting relative to waht they cost

Dan Szymborski: Teams are aware that overpaying 1B/cOFs hasn’t been something with a great deal of success

MSW: Doesn’t mean that in 2030 we won’t get yearly updates on Chris Davis payouts…

Dan Szymborski: Of course, but then we can call those people stupid.

Dan Szymborski: It is far better to pay someone $1.4 million in 2036 than pay it to them in 2016.

grumbleshoes: A gaggle of espressos

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: Do Orlando Arcia and/or Brett Phillips get cups of espresso in September this year?

Dan Szymborski: I think so

Philly Phanatic: What is JP Crawfords upside comp? KOTAH absolutely loves him. How good can the bat be?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS loves him too

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll hit for a surprising amount of power.

Philly Phanatic: Rank the futures:

Dan Szymborski: Don’t see the rest of the question, but “rank this group” questions are the ones that I’m least likely to answer.

Dan Szymborski: Along with “rank this random group of players whose only similarity is that they’re on my fantasy team.”

Brett W: Would you be interested in watching a 434-minute baseball game (20 innings?) re-sorted to align all the parallels and commentary? Maybe the epic Astros-Braves game from the 2005 playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not quite sure what you mean here.

Eric: When do you think Giolito reaches the majors? Still think he can be an ace?

Dan Szymborski: Think he’ll get a peak this year in September and yes.

Aaron: Congrats on getting into the BBWAA! Do you use either DRS or UZR in your projection system? Or do you have your own defensive metric? Ever consider open sourcing your projection system?

Dan Szymborski: I use a blend of sources and for minors, I have my own TotalZone-esque defensive system with PBP data.

Dan Szymborski: As for open-sourcing, no.

Dan Szymborski: I give away the projections themselves, seasonal and in-season for free – I have no intention of losing all control of my work and its use.

John Payne: Why is everyone down on Grienke ? I believe over his last six starts in Arizona he was 6-0 with a 0.85 era.

Dan Szymborski: People are down on Greinke?

fats: what move would you like to see the jays do next?

Dan Szymborski: Develop a time machine and sign one of the top three pitchers.

The Original Greaser Bob: Is Baez potentially a CFer to move Heyward to RF pending a Soler trade, or just the Cubs trying boost Baez’ value?

Dan Szymborski: The more things Baez can do, the more value he has to the team. Why *wouldn’t* they try players in as many roles as they can?

Russ: If by chance Mark Appel has a decent spring with the Phills, does he get to start the year in the rotation?

Dan Szymborski: It’s possible.

jeff: Can Maikel Franco stay at 3B for the long term? Or is destined to move to 1st base down the road?

Dan Szymborski: Down the road maybe, but he’s not a disaster right now.

The Dude of NY: Is Bartolo Colon a HOFer in your opinion?

Dan Szymborski: No, he’s still active.

Art Vandelay: Mostly irrelevant Twins fan question: What do you think the catching split will be between Suzuki and J.R. Murphy? Something like 70-30 Suzuki? Would they be better served flipping that and giving Murphy a chance to swim a la Francisco Cervelli?

Dan Szymborski: Too much Suzuki, I wager

The Original Greaser Bob: Why do you think that this year’s FA market has favored pitchers rather than hitters?

Dan Szymborski: The top pitchers are more interesting than the hitter after Heyward.

Walk Off Balk: The Padres company line is/has been that they are “competing while rebuilding”. One of the owners has spoken derisively of rebuilding on a few occasions. Do you see anything in what they’re doing to suggest they’re doing anything other than maintaining a holding pattern? Is it possible for a team to actually rebuild WHILE being a legitimate contender? Has that ever happened, that you can recall?

Dan Szymborski: To compete and rebuild simultaneously, you generally have to be doing *one* of those things good first.

Dan Szymborski: Well.

Dan Szymborski: Superman does good, you’re doing well.

Dan Szymborski: If you start off trying to compete and rebuild and you don’t have a ridiculous amount of financial resources, it’s not happening.

Tom: Must read books for a young person new to baseball analytics?

Dan Szymborski: The Book for one.

Walter34: Any sense for Chris Coghlan’s trade market? He’s been sneaky good, but is now relegated to 4th OFer duty. Can he and some milb depth bring back an impact, late-inning LHRP?

Dan Szymborski: No, I think he’s considered a 4th OF.

j6takish: Never bet against Boras. Ever. People are using the straw-man that the deferred davis payouts are propping up a less than stellar victory for Boras

Matt: I have a feeling the Rockies will trade Dickerson. Can they actually get a decent return for him?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’d like to, but I’m not sure if anyone meets their deamnds.

LudeBurger: A murder of espressos

Skarp Hedin: Sorry, Davis, bryant, springer, baez, pederson, grichuk etc… why do people think this approach works now but not in the past. I might still not ever be making no sense. It happens.

Dan Szymborski: Oh, yeah, there’s some revisionism

Walk Off Balk: Did Chris Davis read that NY Times article about taking the annuity option if you win Powerball?

Ferry Trancona: To you see K rates stabilizing any time soon, or are we going to continue to see them go up every year for, say, the next decade?

Dan Szymborski: I think eventually they’ll stabilize or MLB will start making strike zone changes.

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: At what point do the Tigers collapse into becoming the 2012-2015 Phillies?

Dan Szymborski: I *suspect* they can hold it together one last year, but that’s far from a guarantee. I think by next season, this is done.

Matt: Hey Dan. I almost forgot about you.

Dan Szymborski: So I need to be even *more obnoxious?

Veszzz: Have you done any work on projecting quality starts? I’ve seen a few different formulas, and while I’m not much of a stat wiz I’ve seen glaring math flaws in some of them and don’t really have an opinion on the others I’ve seen.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t really done much.

jeff: Will Robert Stephenson crack the reds rotation at some point this season? Or do they keep him in the minors to improve his command?

Dan Szymborski: He could, but I suspect he stays in minors until he gets his shit fully together.

The Dude of NY: Adam Wainwright just explained to a reporter that the Cardinals core isn’ aging, it’s “getting more wise”!

Dan Szymborski: He’s not in a position of an analyst, but a player giving an opinion on his team!

Q-Ball: Question Dan….what FA signings did you hate last offseason, at the time? Was there any stupid money you foresaw?

Dan Szymborski: I hated one of Hanley/Sandoval (thought it was stupid to have one not play 3B if you sign them). Hated Santana, Markakis, Volquez, Cuddyer, Rios, Hunter

kevinthecomic: Dammit! I just spilled some quinoa on my shirt!

Dan Szymborski: That’s just a grain, it’s not like it’s apple juice

Kevin: So the O’s need rotation help but probably only can afford the bounce back guys next year. Do you think DD prioritizes Fister? If he returns anywhere close to form he would play well in Camden I think.

Dan Szymborski: He ought to. The O’s ought to have an excellent infield defense

Q-Ball: ZIPS seemingly loves Kyle Hendricks. Are you a believer?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s a solid mid rotation starter with limited upside.

John: Can Dexter Fowler fall to a one year contract with the Cleveland Indians?

Dan Szymborski: I still think he gets multi-year if he signs before the draft

Mets fan: Wondering your thoughts on Cespedes to Mets on one year deal. Seems impractical, as he could just ask for an opt-out on a longer term offer, but news agencies keep acting as if there’s hope

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it happens in the end.

Zonk: How close is Mike Trout to the HOF already? If he quit today, would he be close? If he’s in already, how crazy is that?

Dan Szymborski: He might not be Addie Jossed in, but he should be.

Matt: Based on my ranking methodology (combo of Z Scores method and SGP), Nick Hundley was the 4th best fantasy catcher last year, and (using Steamer) projects to be the 5th or 6th. Can this be true? Coors Field bump?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not crazy at all. Coors is still valuable.

The Dude of NY: Any idea why every projection system thinks that Dee Gordon will drop from a mid 4 WAR player in 2015 to a 2.5-3WAR player in 2016?

Dan Szymborski: For one, he has yet to establish this as his level of defense. Two, there’s a big difference between maintaining a .340-.350 BABIP and a .380.

Julio Pepper: Prices for pitchers have been outrageous, if you trust the projected WAR calculations. And not just the FA signings but also the Padres robbery of the Red Sox, Giles trade, etc. Do you think this has anything to do with the one game Wild Card? Is it’s importance as a playoff filter so large, and the disproportionate value of aces and relievers in single games have anything to do with the prices we’re seeing?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t given it much thought, but I’d lean towards no.

Dan Szymborski: I think the Red Sox looked at their bullpen and wanted to overpay for a really excellent one, not just for the one game.

jeff: Because the reds are in rebuild mode, wouldn’t it be a mistake for the reds to not trade Joey Votto now? With the reds being a mid-market team, his contract would hinder improving the team when it becomes relevant again. Wouldn’t the reds improve their future by unloading his contract if the opportunity arises?

Dan Szymborski: They’re kind of in a spot where it’s hard to trade Votto because even though he now appears to be working out better than a lot of these contracts, you can only really trade for salary relief

Dan Szymborski: Let’s not forget, he has an 8/200 contract remaining.

Matt: Dan, someone is using my name. You need to banish this impostor-Matt

Dan Szymborski: You need a more distinctive name.

Dan Szymborski: Consider Matteo, Matthias, or Matthew and Son.

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: I’ve heard Lucroy isn’t good enough to net Gioloto, and I don’t have much to object to there, but is there anything else the Brewers have to sweeten the pot to make it happen? Perhaps a lights-out bullpen arm like Smith? Kind of like how they thew in Fiers to the Gomez deal to net the return they got? Does it need to be something more valuable like a cost-controlled SP under more team control?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe they can land Giolito.

Jake: say you’re the yankees, and you’re given the option of extending just one of pineda or eovaldi at the same terms, who do you take

Dan Szymborski: Eovaldi until Pineda can stay healthy for a second year.

Justin: I believe the collective noun is a “buzz” of espressos.

Jack: Your thoughts on Sean Manaea? Does he come up at any point this season and what’s a realistic ceiling for him?

Dan Szymborski: He very well may. I see him more as a really good #2 if he’s a hit.

rick hahn: Best option – sign Upton and forfeit pick or Cespedes – assuming similar contracts – or get CarGo without giving up Fulmer or Anderson? shorter commitment and money should be roughly similar.

Dan Szymborski: Cespedes. Not super-itnerested in CarGo

Bip: My stupid fanboy question of the day: Is the ZIPS projection for Clayton Kershaw this year the best you’ve ever seen for a pitcher?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

mike: Are Hanley and Pablo non issues in Boston this year??

Dan Szymborski: Non-issues in what way? Non-issues in that they’ll be OK or non-issues in which they’ll suck and not contribute?

Bork: Re: Fister to the O’s. Wouldn’t a pitcher trying to re-gain value try to avoid the AL East?

Dan Szymborski: The AL East is not as scary division as it once was and it’s a good park fit

jeff: Does your projections for free agents change once they sign with a team?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

The Original Greaser Bob: Train A leaves New York traveling 87 MPH, and Train B leaves Miami traveling at 93 MPH, do the Diamondbacks still suck next year? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: No. They’re OK. Not great, but OK.

Philly Phanatic: Xander B or Carlos C? To build your franchise on?

Dan Szymborski: Correa, but only because you gave me a cruel choice.

Christian Galvin: King Felix for Moncada, Owens, Espinosa who says no?

Dan Szymborski: Mariners aren’t trading him.

Q-Ball: Thanks Dan for sharing list of FA you hated last offseason…only Volquez on that list really worked out. So you really hate NONE this offseason so far? Other than Orioles overpaying Davis?

Dan Szymborski: Well, I don’t *hate* Davis

Dan Szymborski: I do hate the Kennedy signing.

Dan Szymborski: I hate Parra signing, Pelfrey signing, Axford signing, but we’re taking smaller amounts of dough now

Justin: Utley is two years removed from a 4-WAR season. He’s at least a lottery ticket this season, right?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah

Bip: With the way crazy K rates are today, and the way offense is down, what would a modern day Pedro look like? 44% K, 4% BB, 0.25 HR/9? Is that actually possible? Would peak Pedro have done that today?

Dan Szymborski: He’d strike out 4 batters an inning. Prime Pedro would strike out a guy so hard that they’d just call the next dude out too.

j6takish: QO system is disastrous, too many good players not getting signed over draft. Under the old A/B system, I don’t remember teams being so scared of giving up a pick. Guys like Scott Downs and Ted Lily were type A guys

Dan Szymborski: I think this is overstated simply because it coincides with a world in which teams value farm development more highly

Dan Szymborski: If the old A/B system was in place, you’d still see a lot of this.

Tank: FG Dollar Values have Yoenis Cespedes being worth $53.9 million last year. We know Sandy Alderson values one-year deals. At the start of free agency, would it have made sense to offer Cespedes a one-year, $30 million offer? Would he have taken it?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe not, but if I’m a team in win-now mode with a need, I’d happily plunk down 1/35

Dan Szymborski: You can justify a *lot* more in a 1 year deal

Dan Szymborski: Likely he doesn’t take it, but at least make him turn it down

Kevin: So who is taking Gallardo? Doesn’t seem like anyone wants to bite that $70MM+ draft pick compensated bullet.

Dan Szymborski: I thought Kennedy would have issues and I like Galalrdo more than kennedy

The Original Greaser Bob: I didn’t realize Leake, Kennedy, and Samardzija were interesting.

Dan Szymborski: Kennedy’s not.

Dan Szymborski: Dan, someone is using my name. You need to banish this impostor-Dan

Dan Szymborski: BLUE CHECKMARK FOR THE WIN

PaulC: is too much SP going cause any issues for Dodgers? 10 SP deep at this point. Is Alex Wood odd man out?

Dan Szymborski: They’re in a wait-and-see

Jon: Who would you acquire for RF if you were Dan Duquette?

Dan Szymborski: Cespedes, though Duquette obviously can’t take money from Angelos’s wallet willy-nilly

some guy: Everyone is enamored with the Cubs this offseason (rightfully so). But the NL Central has 2 other really good teams. Supposing a few key injuries to Cubbies, what has to go right for the Pirates to win the division?

Dan Szymborski: Not as much as one would think – there’s a lot of uncertainty in the future

Givemedilaudid: Would a rebuilding team (Phillies or Braves, for example) signing Cespedes/Upton to a front-loaded contract, and then trading him for prospects 1 or 2 year in make any sense?

Dan Szymborski: It might, but you have to think if that frontloaded money is worth what they get.

Sick Stadium: If Benoit closes in Seattle I would imagine it would only be for the 2016 season. Who do you see being the Mariners closer of the future now that Carson Smith is in Boston.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the M’s future closer is currently in the system

Jordan : Should the Jays make a move for Votto either now or next off season and allow EE and/or Bautista walk?

Dan Szymborski: I’d wait-and-see.

The Dude of NY: Do you ever look at Kershaw’s stats and think that there must be a typo?

Dan Szymborski: Sometimes

Givemedilaudid: Would free agency be a better place if we just got rid of the qualifying offer system? Or at least took the (negative) factor away; team that lost the FA would get a pick, but team that signed the FA would not have to give up the pick?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the owners will just scrap the system. For 40 years, one of the principles the owners have stuck hard to is making sure there’s *some* factor in losing a FA.

Dan Szymborski: *Some* player they get.l

The Dude of NY: Yesterday, David Laurila wrote that Jose Iglesias is just as good as Andrelton Simmons. Would you disagree, strongly disagree, or vehemently disagree with that statement?

Dan Szymborski: Stronly.

jeff: Why don’t owners just allow the qualifying offers to exists and just remove the draft pick penalty for the signing team? That way the old team gets a compensation pick, and the player doesn’t lose value because of team not wanting to lose a pick.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a possibility, but I’d have to think of it.

some guy: Do you think Rob Kaminsky and/or Mike Clevenger get a battery of espresso this season for the Tribe?

Dan Szymborski: Yes.

Bork: The QO system isn’t perfect but it’s much better than the A/B system that some GM’s would take advantage of. That and we’re just seeing the QO system start to work with players accepting QO’s.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I think people are having a little nostalgia for how arbitrary that A/B system was.

Dan Szymborski: The formula was absurd.

Bork: What gets moved first. Archer’s contract or the Rays to another city?

Dan Szymborski: Archer

Joe: Would 5/100 work for a Machado extension?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: He’s in arbitration now. If you’re going to buy out free agency years at this point, your extension is going to have to have at least a 2 after the dollar sign and i’m not talking 2/$20.

Jack: What do you think about Josh Reddick as a RF option for Baltimore? Does Dariel Alvarez and Chance Sisco for Reddick work for both sides?

Dan Szymborski: I would like the option.

Givemedilaudid: Is Andruw Jones a Hall of Famer?

Dan Szymborski: He’s not yet eligible. But when he is in fact eligible, he should be, but won’t.

Dan Szymborski: Because right now, the standards for HoF induction are crazy high.

Dan Szymborski: Unless you’re a closer

Skarp Hedin: Does pragmatism exist? Isn’t it just a con or lack of insight by the person telling you they are a pragmatist?

Dan Szymborski: I think it does.

Bork: If people want to complain about the QO system and draft picks, the competitive balance lottery needs to go first.

Q-Ball: Why Dan do you hate the Parra signing? Rockies probably figured they could spend $30 mil on Parra, who is maybe better than Car-Go, then trade Car-Go and that $37 mil off for a prospect. Result: Rox save $7 mil, get a prospect, get younger, and probably not worse. Even if they just get $30 mil of salary relief on Car-Go, wont’ that work out for them in the end?

Dan Szymborski: Because there’s no purpose.

Dan Szymborski: Parra doesn’t fill a win-now need or a win-later need. It’s just pointless.

Dan Szymborski: If you’re in a gameplan in which you’re trading away your other outfielders, then there’s no purpose for a risk-averse fourth-outfielder starting and being paid $10 million.

Dan Szymborski: All it fits is with the Rockies general gameplan: try to win 75-80 games and get lucky sometimes.

Givemedilaudid: The worst front office in baseball belongs to…? The best?

Dan Szymborski: Rockies, Cubs

Matt: Is there an easy way to find the ZiPS projections you’ve done so far? Or do I have to search through all the FG posts?

Dan Szymborski: They don’t go all up.

Joe: To follow up on Machado, if he makes a total of $30M in arb (including the $5M he signed for 2016) and then gets $30M a year in FA, 5/100 would be more in the next five years. Then he’d still only be 29 and back on the FA market.

Dan Szymborski: I’d be surprised if he signs for that.

Dan Szymborski: You’re not paying for him being a FA at 29 instead of 27 which is a MASSIVE difference.

Dan Szymborski: Machado should’ve been signed his rookie year.

Dan Szymborski: (and it’s not hindsight, I’m sure you can find me yelling about it on Twitter)

Dan Szymborski: He’s a free agent going into his age 26 season. The O’s will have to pay a lot now.

Won: Would you rather have next six years of Zach Greinke or Juio Urias?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the organization.

Matt: When you buy your MLK Day cake, is it usually real cake, or ice cream cake?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like ice cream cake that much.

Vic Romano: What do you think of Gerardo Parra in COL? Assuming they clear a spot for him to play everyday, that thin air can’t hurt his bat, right?

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t make him better it just makes his numbers greater.

Q-Ball: If you were Rockies GM Dan, what would you do? Commit to a rebuild and start trading off your quality veterans?

Dan Szymborski: Rebuild. They don’t have the roster or the cash for a win-now.

Dan Szymborski: OK, we’ve hit 1, so let’s go to the Lightning Round.

Dan Szymborski: The Lightning Round is simple: I have to answer every question, so long as it’s off-topic and not one of the exceptions (very personal stuff or work-related things).

grumbleshoes: When I click “upload music” and select a folder, it displays an animated uploading icon and says “added 0 of 24 tracks.” But then I leave and come back an hour later and the tracks still haven’t uploaded! What do I do?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure what you’re referring to.

Outta my way, Gyorkass!: My future sister in law lives in the Baltimore/DC area, so I have a feeling I’m going to be traveling there fairly often. What are your recommendations for microbreweries to tour/visit/drink their beer? I bought some DuClaw beer last time I went and I liked it, and obviously, Dogfish Head is a big one, but any other suggestions?

Dan Szymborski: Heavy Seas, Union

Dan Szymborski: Brewer’s Art

Skarp Hedin: When you use the word libertarian what do you mean? Do most people mean the same thing? Do you split libertarians into right and left? Or libertine and non libertine?

Dan Szymborski: On a very basic fundamental level, those that believe in personal sovereignty.

Derek: I have a splinter near my cuticle and it’s almost popping out. Should I break the skin and dig it out to stop the pain, or deal with the pain for a few more days until it finally crawls out?

Dan Szymborski: I’d just pull it out.

Dan Szymborski: I’m impatient.

Dan Szymborski: I always rip off those damn hangnails

The Dude of NY: What position do you think MLK would be best at?

Dan Szymborski: Wasn’t he left-handed? Lefthanded pitchers always find jobs!

Bork: What’s your favorite kind of cake?

Dan Szymborski: Cheese

Bork: What’s your favorite kind of pie?

Dan Szymborski: Pecan

Matt: You don’t like ice cream cake? Let me guess, you hate puppies too?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a huge ice cream guy. Too cold.

Bork: What’s your favorite kind of question on these chats?

Dan Szymborski: Random ones

Matt: Other than in the idiom, have you ever actually heard someone say “to-mah-to”?

Dan Szymborski: I have, because I know people from England

Dan Szymborski: but I’ve sure as hell never heard anyone say po-TAH-to, so let’s call the whole thing off

Derek: If Hilary wins the presidency and all along it was just a ruse for her to get back at Bill by having sex in the Oval Office……and she chose you as her version of Monica Lewinski…would you do it?

Dan Szymborski: That’s kind of a weird question, but while I would admire the deviousness and high-concept of the plan, I’m not into power.

Vic Romano: Favorite Alan Rickman role (non-Snape division)?

Dan Szymborski: haha, you didn’t say non-Gruber too!

martin: your second and third hobbies are?

Dan Szymborski: video games, piano playing

Givemedilaudid: Ever tried a Sweet Baby Jesus by DuClaw?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t care for the peanut butter, but I know a woman who adores it

Some other guy: Do you think AJ Styles will enter the Rumble? How will he fare?

Dan Szymborski: I do not think he does

The Dude of NY: Favorite film of 2015?

Dan Szymborski: Out in space, all over the place, Space is the Place for Star Wars.

GSon: mars red w/ tan leather Mercedes SL or royal blue w/ black leather lexus SC?

Dan Szymborski: I like blue better

The Dude of NY: Is there life on Mars?

Dan Szymborski: Rudimentary, yes I think.

Bork: What’s your favorite kind of cheesecake?

Dan Szymborski: Plain is a classic.

The Dude of NY: I don’t take kindly to folks who don’t take kindly to ice cream cake.

Julio Pepper: Ricotta or cream cheese?

Dan Szymborski: Cream cheese

Tank: Which fast food place has the best chicken sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: chik-fil-a, but I eat very little fast food

Bork: Dan’s too newschool nerdy sabernerd to like some good old fashion ice cream cake.

Dan Szymborski: Newschool sabernerd? I’ve been doing this for 20 years!

Matt: Do those English people also say “po-tah-to”?

Dan Szymborski: No

Matt: True or False: From a libertarian perspective, because of a little thing called congress, Bernie would be the least destructive of a non-Rand Paul candidate.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t want to think of a Bernie/Trump election.

kevinthecomic: Re: Hillary Question — EWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!

Some other guy: Do you think they’ll get the FF7 remake right? Or make it too action RPGy?

Dan Szymborski: Too much action-RPG. I think it’ll suck.

Charley: Favorite late night show host is…..?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t really watch late night talk shows

GSon: Piano players have long strong fingers making them candidates for being good pitchers.. is the statement, You couldn’t pitch a tent reflective of your pitching ability?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, is that an erection reference?

Dan Szymborski: I struggle with some because while I have strong fingers, they’re not particularly long.

Mortiest Morty: Rick and Morty: Greatest show ever or Greatest show ever in the entire universe?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t actually seen

kevinthecomic: I now HATE the lightning round!!!!

Matt: I read somewhere that the moon was actually made of cheese. Do you think there’s any truth to that?

Dan Szymborski: No. You need bacteria to make cheese.

The Dude of NY: If you could usurp one current monarch, which one would it be?

Dan Szymborski: The UK. They still take their monarch seriously and they’re overdue for an usurpation

martin: there are no aliens on earth, right?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dick: Who’s your favorite Supreme Court Justice?

Dan Szymborski: Roberts

The Dude of NY: Did you see Mad Max: Fury Road?

Dan Szymborski: No

Teddy: What would you recommend for a college kid looking to get into baseball that isn’t very good at math?

Dan Szymborski: Playing?

tenaciousdeucer: Would you vote for a third party candidate whose views you vehemently disagree with just for the sake of voting against the evil Democrat/Republican false dichotomy?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve vote dfor Nader.

Slew: You a fan of Galaxy Quest?

Dan Szymborski: yes

Bork: The fact that they are making the FF7 episodic instead of releasing one game is turning me off of it. I can deal with action-rpg (I have a soft spot for Dirge of Cerebus) but episodic? Nope.

Dan Szymborski: It’ll suck.

powow: what would you consider the best hearthstone deck to play with as a relatively new player?

Dan Szymborski: Zoo

Dan Szymborski: or Midrange Hunter

Dan Szymborski: or Face Hunter really, but I frigging hate face hunters and don’t want to encourage more.

hscer: watch them reshuffle Memento in the upcoming superfluous remake

Harry Caray: Would you rather be the greatest mind in baseball or have mad cow disease?

Dan Szymborski: Is that a question?

Dan Szymborski: Who wants mad cow disease?

martin: No Aliens, or no, I am not right?

Dan Szymborski: No aliens currently on earth, though probability demands they exist somewhere

The Dude of NY: Would you rather be sacrificed as part of an ancient polytheistic religion ritual, or a Dark Ages Paganistic ritual?

Dan Szymborski: Ancient, I like the classics

Gabe: To tenaciousdeucer: We can’t break away from the two-party system until we junk our first-past-the-post voting system. See Duverger.

Matt: No aliens? or No, aliens?

Dan Szymborski: No aliens. I don’t leave out commas by accident.

Dan Szymborski: AND END