Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 12/3/18
| 12:02 |
: There are civil defense sirens going off, so either it’s noon on the first Monday or I’m going to die soon. Let’s find out which!
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| 12:02 |
: Any update on ZiPS release schedule for 2019 projections?
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| 12:03 |
: Starting tomorrow! Since I’ll be able to do more a week for FG as I’m now full-time here, we should end around the same time.
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| 12:03 |
: What should the Padres do with Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe, Franchy, and Franmil?
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| 12:05 |
: The return for Segura seems pretty weak to me.. plus taking on Santana?? I don’t get it
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| 12:05 |
: Honestly, I think you have to trade Myers. With Hosmer at first for no particular reason
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| 12:05 |
: Oops, sorry, skipped an answer
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| 12:05 |
: With Hosmer at first, it’s hard to get a look at all the corner guys
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| 12:05 |
: Then you probably see who’s healthy in the spring
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| 12:05 |
: Which non-tendered player(s) have the best chance of making their previous team regret the decision? I think Avi Garcia and Schoop both have the highest ceilings based on 2017 production.
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| 12:06 |
: Schoop has upside. Avi needs a ridonk-a-donkulous BABIP to be useful at all.
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| 12:06 |
: Should the Padres be in on Kyle Seager?
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| 12:06 |
: Not really, no.
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| 12:07 |
: He’s already crashed hard over two years and is on the wrong side of 30. Though I guess it would depend on just how much the Mariners want to eat.
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| 12:07 |
: Oh, I think the return for Segura is fine. Segura’s a solid middle infielder, but neither ZiPS or Steamer like him as much in the future and Crawford has a ton of upside.
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| 12:08 |
: ANd *something* is likely going back Phillies way to equalize the salaries more
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| 12:08 |
: Buffet rankings: Cosmo breakfast 70. Caesars 65. Wynn 60. Bellagio 50.
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| 12:08 |
: I stay away from breakfast buffets because I might eat enough sausage and bacon to need my stomach pumped
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| 12:08 |
: But I’ve never been to Vegas, so I’d definitely like to try a buffet
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| 12:08 |
: Is a burrito just an infinitely rolled taco?
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| 12:09 |
: No
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| 12:09 |
: What total guaranteed $$$ would get a Rendon extension done for the Nats?
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| 12:10 |
: 5/100 maybe?
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| 12:10 |
: Do the Phils grabbing Segura mean they won’t pursue Machado or is Machado OK with playing 3B?
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| 12:11 |
: For $300 million, Many might be persuaded. They could always move Segura to third even if he couldn’t
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| 12:11 |
: I mean, I’d prefer Machado at third and Segura at short, but it Machado at short and Segura so sub-ideal that you’d call the whole tehing off?
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| 12:11 |
: With the O’s missing out on the big Cuban names, do they get to keep all the international money they acquired or does it automatically go to Chris Davis?
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| 12:11 |
: There’s no acquire money, only the acquired ability to spend money.
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| 12:11 |
: Do you think Alomar makes the Mets a contender, or do they need another big bat like Mo Vaughn or Jeremy Burnitz?
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| 12:11 |
: Burnitz!
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| 12:12 |
: I made a really mean blog entry about his signing some years ago
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| 12:12 |
: This was teh whole entry.
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| 12:12 |
:
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| 12:14 |
: Assuming the Pirates have, say, $10 million available to spend, what is the next move that makes sense? I feel like SS is their weakest spot, but the non-Machado FA shortstops aren’t that much better than the Newman projection. I have a “trade for Profar (who all of a sudden is only 2 yrs from FA), use that money on something else” bug in my brain.
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| 12:15 |
: That’s kinda the problem, I think they just go with Newman in the end.
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| 12:16 |
: More “surprising” non-tenders this year or am I just paying more attention?
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| 12:16 |
: I’m not sure they were *that* surprising.
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| 12:16 |
: Hamilton’s kinda surprising. He’s always been this player and they’ve been resistant to trading him.
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| 12:16 |
: I had a dream the other night that my parents went into a restaurant you were eating at, turned you into a butterfly, put you in a box, and took you away. I’m not sure what that means or what it says about me, but I thought you should know.
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| 12:17 |
: YOUR PARENTS TOOK MY SOUL
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| 12:17 |
: I’M CALLING THE DREAM POLICE
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| 12:17 |
: Sorry, we can’t sign any free agents while we’re still paying off the Cano deal. No, we won’t move him off of second base, that would be disrespectful to the veteran. We can’t rebuild even though we’ve yet to make the playoffs since 2016, we’re still Going For It. Just, you know, without spending real money.
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| 12:17 |
: I don’t think he’s a problem at all at second base, honestly.
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| 12:17 |
: I’m getting lunch at 10:51. Sue me.
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| 12:17 |
: That’s 11:51 in normal time
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| 12:17 |
: I think I have just been traded to the Mariners … and now from the Mariners to Phillies … and back to the Mariners … and to the Mets … and back to the Mariners …
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| 12:17 |
: It’s truly fascinating to watch a motivated Dipoto in action compared to other GMs.
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| 12:17 |
: It’s never boring.
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| 12:18 |
: The O’s sign Adam Jones and Markakis and just try to pretend the last two (four?) years didn’t happen…
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| 12:18 |
: Happily — or maybe sadly because of the lulz — they’re probably too smart.
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| 12:18 |
: What does Jerry DiPoto know that no one else does? Seems like he’s the only GM than can make trades anymore.
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| 12:18 |
: If you keep making trades YOU CAN’T DIE
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| 12:18 |
: how does WAR split across players in a trade? what i mean is, if you are trading a 10-win player for 2 players, what would the combined total WAR need to be between them? two 7-win players would satisfy the pythagorean theorem (which is appealing to me for some reason). what about 3 players?
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| 12:19 |
: I’m not quite sure I understand this question. Could you rephrase it?
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| 12:19 |
: What, exactly, are the Mariners doing? I don’t think they know. Because I sure don’t!
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| 12:19 |
: Teareing down for a rebuild.
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| 12:19 |
: Please explain how acquiring a 36 YO 2B and elite closer for prospects and then trading away your #2 starter makes any sense without using the following words: Wilpon, cheap, or Madoff. Thank you.
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| 12:19 |
: It’d be crazy to trade Thor once you’ve gone to all this effort to bring in Cano
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| 12:20 |
: I made a graphic to demonstrate what picking up Cano and trading Thor would look like.
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| 12:20 |
:
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| 12:20 |
: Thoughts on DRC+? And will it come to Fangraphs?
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| 12:21 |
: It’s new and I haven’t relaly thought about it deeply, but it’s interesting, almost a batter FIP.
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| 12:21 |
: ZiPS does something similar, but it does things like model individual things like BABIP
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| 12:21 |
: How much of an impact does Cano-Diaz have on the Mets? They’re still hopeless, right?
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| 12:21 |
: There’s enough of an upside with the pitching. No other team in the NL East is a juggernaut
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| 12:21 |
: Was this deal as awful as I think it was? I’m actually thinking of moving fan bases
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| 12:22 |
: I don’t think it was bad – the idea the M’s would eat $100 million always struck me as fanciful
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| 12:22 |
: And no Bruce to stupidly eat up ABs
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| 12:22 |
: Or did Syndergaard suddenly get traded while I’ve been chatting? Lots of Mets panic in the questions today.
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| 12:22 |
: thanks for the elegy series. it’s been great!
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| 12:22 |
: I hope you guys are enjoying it; it’s the kind of thing I really wanted to do at ESPN for years but never was able to
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| 12:22 |
: Now that $20m to NYM appears confirmed and setting aside opportunity costs for other options – how does the Diaz/Cano deal shake out valuation wise?
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| 12:23 |
: I think it’s actually fair.
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| 12:23 |
: I can only picture Dipoto doing normal life, like walking around his house or out at dinner, only to randomly think and shout “trade!” like the dog in Up with squirrels
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| 12:23 |
: I’m keeping the off-topic ones for the Lightning Round, I’m not ignoring them.
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| 12:24 |
: Unless it’s incredibly stupid, in which case I might.
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| 12:24 |
: Also as a side note, there will be no chat next week as I will be at the Winter Meetings, so I’m trying to be twice as lousy this week to make up for it.
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| 12:24 |
: I’m convinced Dipoto thinks Safeco will explode if he doesn’t keep making trades. Crawford hasn’t shown much above AA, does he really represent someone of good value in a return for Jean Segura?
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| 12:24 |
: I remain optimistic about a health Crawford
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| 12:24 |
: What if the Mets flip Diaz for better prospects than the ones they just traded?
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| 12:25 |
: Nah, they’re using him
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| 12:25 |
: DiPoto IS the hot stove
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| 12:25 |
: I saw that the Phillies are saying they are interested in Machado, Harper, and Corbin. I would like to announce that I am interested in dating Emma Watson, Scarlett Johansson, and Brie Larson
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| 12:25 |
: Unlike you or I, the Phillies actually might have the ability to date more than one of them. Or one of them.
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| 12:25 |
: The Mariners are selling high (Diaz, Segura, Paxton and to a lesser extent Cano) and buying low (Bruce, Santana, JP Crawford) while getting some monetary relief and decent prospects in return. Isn’t this exactly what they should be doing? Seems like they’re getting grilled for taking on Santana et al. but just last year (some) people were calling his signing shrewd.
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| 12:25 |
: I didn’t think it was a bad deal last year an dit didn’t look great the first year!
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| 12:25 |
: I don’t think the Mariners are really that much worse.
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| 12:26 |
: Ready to open 67 packs tomorrow?
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| 12:26 |
: Just 67? I won’t get the full set with that many!
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| 12:26 |
: Do you think Kikuchi liked the jersey enough that I gave him to sign with us, or is he just going to the highest bidder?
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| 12:26 |
: $$$$
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| 12:26 |
: Over/Under 5 days until Mitch Haniger is with a new team?
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| 12:26 |
: I actually think Haniger sticks around
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| 12:27 |
: is there anything suggesting the Dbacks might move Peralta?
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| 12:27 |
: I haven’t heard much specific about Peralta, but I actually think it’s more likely he moves than Haniger
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| 12:28 |
: Will Angels trading Calhoun to DBacks for Greinke (Angels eat most if not all of Greinke), then sign Harper to play RF sound like a good plan?
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| 12:28 |
: Well, yeah, but I don’t think it happens.
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| 12:29 |
: Have you seen much of Eric Haase, if so what should Indians fans expect?
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| 12:30 |
: I know the team’s happy with his progress defensively. He was uneventful the couple of times I saw him live. He might be a slower ru nner than I am
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| 12:30 |
: Who is Wilkin Ramos and when did he get traded?
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| 12:31 |
: A scrawny very low-level pitcher that’s years away.
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| 12:31 |
: But he’s 18 and hitting low 90s and most scouts think he’s projectable
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| 12:31 |
: Is it because of lettuce?
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| 12:31 |
: do you have an opinion on the Lindbergh burrito method?
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| 12:31 |
: I eat burritos from bow to stern.
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| 12:32 |
: I prefer tacos honestly.
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| 12:32 |
: Beans make me gassy
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| 12:32 |
: I wish I hadn’t shared that
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| 12:32 |
: Lost in all the praise from the Nightengale’s of the world for GM Brodie “going for it” is that I remember similar praise for Preller in his first year, and for the Marlins when they signed some guys for the first year of the new ballpark. When has this ever worked out?
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| 12:32 |
: Jumping the gun rarely works.
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| 12:32 |
: Maybe the ’97 Marlins
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| 12:32 |
: Cat update please.
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| 12:33 |
: Cassiopeia is sleeping in the crow’s nest of the giant cat tower, Mercutio was sleeping on the stairs, and last I saw Galileo, he was eating shredded mozzarella I gave him as a reward for not mauling me when I gave him his prednisolone.
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| 12:33 |
: Should fans stop caring about how much money players are getting in their contracts? I get that it’s a good fun conversation, but when was the last time a teams payroll really hurt them? (Sans Miami because you know…Loria)
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| 12:33 |
: Teams *choose* to let payroll considerations hurt them!
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| 12:33 |
: Aside from the concept of appeasement, does any team actually view Machado as a SS?
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| 12:34 |
: appeasement is pretty important since it’s the one thing you need to be able to play Machado at all
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| 12:34 |
: Does Seattle actually think Omar Narvaez is an everyday catcher?
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| 12:34 |
: I believe they’re hoping he’ll improve behind the plate in time
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| 12:34 |
: The Marlins aren’t actually dumb enough to not trade JT Realmuto, are they?
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| 12:35 |
: They might be.
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| 12:35 |
: Why does an 89-win team (Mariners) go into full rebuilding rather than re-tooling?
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| 12:35 |
: The Mariners are very expensive to upgrade at all – the farm system at the end of the season was horrible.
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| 12:35 |
: And if you’re not going to spend $300 million, it gets kinda tricky for them
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| 12:36 |
: I need to buy my way out of servitude. How can I make more money, Dan?
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| 12:36 |
: PUnching
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| 12:36 |
: In case of a real civil defense emergency, what is your role?
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| 12:36 |
: Cannon fodder
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| 12:36 |
: Can we get Donaldson’s ZiPS for 2019?
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| 12:36 |
: OK, fine
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| 12:37 |
: BA OBP SLG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO HP SB CS SH SF + DR WAR
.270 .378 .509 110 407 73 110 23 1 24 71 68 102 4 4 1 1 3 135 2 4.2 |
| 12:37 |
: McNeil move to third now? Weird that they didn’t want to include him (possibly over Kelenic!?) but were acquiring someone for his position.
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| 12:37 |
: I expect that’s where he ends up being
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| 12:37 |
: Just got dumped & there’s not much offseason news for teh Dodgers who lost 2 WS ina row and broke my heart more than this breakup so far. Can you cheer me up?
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| 12:38 |
: You gotta be damn good to get to the World Series
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| 12:38 |
: Why does cano headline this deal? “did yousee the mets got cano” wtf
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| 12:38 |
: Most famous player
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| 12:38 |
: You never answered my question. It came up on the chat but with no reply.
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| 12:38 |
: Did I? I thought I got the stray one, lemme see
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| 12:39 |
: I did! I answered it like 3 questions later
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| 12:39 |
: I can’t see the Mets pic. Was it “we regret the actions of this employee…”?
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| 12:39 |
:
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| 12:39 |
:
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| 12:40 |
: In one sentence, why are teams potentially willing to go six years for a guy (Corbin) who has one very good year under his belt, but also multiple years of subpar performance and a serious injury in his past? I know the peripherals really loved him.
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| 12:40 |
: You have to take some risk to land an elite pitcher. We’re talking about the guy who was a serious Cy contender in a non-degrom year and was, IIRC, the second-hardest starter to hit
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| 12:40 |
: ITS MY BDAY DAN
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| 12:40 |
: My first assumption was that DRC+ meant “delicious rolls and calzones”. Now, I’m rethinking my pizza lunch
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| 12:40 |
: Cora has said he will ease his pitchers into next season due to the strenuous post season load. He is most likely referring to Sale and Price. Would it be wiser to piggyback them for a month or so, or go to a six man rotation, using Johnson, Velazquez, Shepherd and a miL FA to soak up starts?
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| 12:41 |
: I think I’d temporarily have a swingman, not go to a rigid six-man
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| 12:42 |
: Cano may not be a problem at 2B now, but wait until the Mets doctors get through with him
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| 12:42 |
: Who is catching for the cards after 2020
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| 12:43 |
: Cardinals hope Knizner, I assume, unless Dipoto has traded for him during this chat
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| 12:43 |
: Who do you plan on signing at the Winter Meetings?
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| 12:43 |
: credit card recipts?
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| 12:43 |
: receipts?
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| 12:43 |
: Hey Dan. After the White Sox traded Omar Narvaez to Seattle they are in need of a catcher. I was thinking Yasmani Grandal would make a lot of sense for them. Do you think this would be a wise direction for the White Sox or is there a better fit in FA or trade?
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| 12:44 |
: He does, but I think they got with Castillo and hope Collins/Zavala make it itneresting
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| 12:44 |
: Portland’s announcement made me think their concessions stands are going to be much more like a hippie farmer’s market with some in-person etsy stalls set up amongst them.
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| 12:44 |
: kale with flamin’ hot cheetos
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| 12:45 |
: Why are people saying the cardinals need to go for brantley or pollock? if they wanted to do that they would’ve kept pham
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| 12:46 |
: That’s my opinion. I think they’ll go after one of the *big* names
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| 12:46 |
: let’s say you have a 10-win player. a mike trout, if you will. imagine you’re going to trade him. there is no such thing as another mike trout, so you can’t get the same value back in a single player. so you have to take multiple players in return. clearly ten 1-win players is not the same thing at all. if you received two 5-win players, you get to 10 wins again, but now it’s over 2 roster spots instead of 1. if one of the new players is a CF to replace trout, the other one has to play somewhere, there by displacing whoever played in that spot previously. if that player was say, major-league average, then you are replacing at 2-win player with a 5-win player. so you’ve upgraded that spot by 3 wins, but you’ve made your team overall worse by 2 wins. this is a very specific example just to illustrate the gain of consolidating WAR in a single roster spot. what i am interested in is a general principle of X WAR at one roster spot is worth Y WAR at two roster spots, Z WAR at three roster spots, etc.
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| 12:46 |
: I think the key here is that you’re making WAR do more than it is intended for.
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| 12:46 |
: WAR is a brute force stat, one which roughly estimates player value.
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| 12:47 |
: But it’s a rough tool, a hammer. Trades are more like using a scalpel, it depends on the exact player, the exact team needs, etc.
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| 12:47 |
: Nobody’s ever really going to think “Let’s get 3-3-4 WAR players for Trout instead of 5-5 WAR players”
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| 12:47 |
: If the Astros add Goldschmidt and Grandal, would they have the best offense in the league?
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| 12:47 |
: Likelo so
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| 12:48 |
: What is more likely – Trout gets traded next off season, or he signs an open ended extension that allows him to decide when he’s done playing?
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| 12:48 |
: The latter
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| 12:48 |
: Where will Larry Walker land for you in the list of all-time Hall of Fame snubs?
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| 12:48 |
: There are so many that it’s difficult
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| 12:48 |
: But he’s upt here
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| 12:49 |
: Assuming Shoeless Joe is out of the covnersation, Walker’s likely the biggest snub at his position at least
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| 12:49 |
: he’s better than Dwight Evans and he’s better than Sosa.
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| 12:49 |
: and better than Sheffield
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| 12:49 |
: Is Seattle just cleaning house for their 2021 move to Portland?
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| 12:49 |
: No
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| 12:49 |
: I know you’re cynical as an Orioles fan (who ain’t?), but Elias really seems to be moving the team in the direction of competence. Agree?
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| 12:49 |
: Strangely, I’m optimistic.
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| 12:50 |
: Aren’t soft-shell tacos just lazy and/or overfilled tiny burritos?
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| 12:50 |
: Yes
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| 12:50 |
: Why are you a chili fascist?
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| 12:50 |
: I’m a chili freedom fighter
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| 12:50 |
: Will the Mariners wind up getting Markelle Fultz in the Segura trade?
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| 12:51 |
: They could use a guard, but the shoulder issues are a red flag
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| 12:51 |
: Do you let the fact that beans make you gassy affect your personal bias? Can we really trust you to be non-partisan on the issue of beans in chili?
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| 12:51 |
: It’s more for other people’s benefits than mine.
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| 12:51 |
: At first I thought your “appeasement is pretty important” comment was about Galileo
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| 12:52 |
: Appeasing a cat is very important.
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| 12:52 |
: Though I did not give Galileo a blintz. WTF would he do with a blintz?
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| 12:52 |
: You didn’t’ answer my question though. I’m sure a team will sign him to play SS. My question though, is – is any team thrilled about that? Or is it going to be an “ok, fine, you can play SS, we want your bat” situation?
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| 12:52 |
: I don’t believe any team is thrilled about him playing SS per se. Any team that likes the idea is either thinking signability or have a great 3B already
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| 12:52 |
: As you slowly leak out the ZIPS projections by team, can the running aggregate be put on the Projections page? (Similar to how the BOARD has the prospects from the teams reviewed so far…)
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| 12:53 |
: That’s something I’ll ask at today’s taff meeting
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| 12:53 |
: The Pads have a plethora of outfielders. If you were AJ, who would you keep? I like Franchy, but don’t know if he makes the cut over Reyes, Myers, or Margot.
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| 12:53 |
: I think the problem is that without playing time, it’s really hard to figure out who you’d keep
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| 12:53 |
: Do the Braves move Camargo?
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| 12:53 |
: No
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| 12:53 |
: Any truth to the rumors that you have been planning a hostile takeover of the site and changing the name to “dangraphs”?
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| 12:53 |
: I’m already warchesting Fantographs
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| 12:54 |
:
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| 12:54 |
: Diaz should be an Oriole in 2019 at some point, right? I inow service time and all, but he seems ready to me. Would you have him and Hays battle it out for RF in ST, or roll with Trumbo/stopgap FA?
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| 12:54 |
: Yes, I think he gets up fairly quickly
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| 12:54 |
: Are you into VR at all? Favorites?
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| 12:54 |
: I’m not really. Haven’t seen the killer app that I must have VR for
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| 12:54 |
: Is the ideal profile for a relief pitcher a deaf yoga practitioner so he can’t hear the crowd and can zen his way through the high-leverage situations?
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| 12:55 |
: The idea relief pitcher is ambidextrous and throws 104 and uses one arm every time the other has Tommy John surgery
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| 12:55 |
: Are the Mets really “jumping the gun,” as you suggest? They project for 82 wins right now, one behind the Braves, before even adding Cano and Diaz. They are legitimate wild-card candidates in the NL without even considering the pending additions.
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| 12:55 |
: I think we’re more talking the general practice.
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| 12:56 |
: I’m not sure the Mets are really going all-in anyway
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| 12:56 |
: Should bread be hard or soft? My east coast friends say that sub rolls should be tough and that I have a weak jaw
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| 12:56 |
: Depends!
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| 12:56 |
: What would your van have airbrushed on the side? Do you go carpet interior?
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| 12:56 |
: Joe Orsulak delivering a tiger uppercut to Uncle Sam while George Washington gives him a thumbs-up
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| 12:57 |
: Walker is listed at 6’2″ 185. How can he be one of the biggest HoF snubs?
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| 12:57 |
: No, soft shell tacos are burritos cut in half
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| 12:57 |
: Yes, you not farting is a benefit for others. But many others also enjoy beans in chili.
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| 12:57 |
: hmm, i disagree with you Dan. which is rare. i think there’s a general rule in here somewhere. i’m going to keep working on this. thank you!
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| 12:57 |
: You are to chili, as Mussolini was to civil discourse.
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| 12:57 |
: I make the chili cook on time.
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| 12:57 |
: have you ever found yourself in the precarious situation of running out of clothes and needing a barrel with 2 straps to cover yourself in public?
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| 12:57 |
: I have not.
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| 12:58 |
: Though I was once hiking and ripped my boxer shorts so severely that they fell out of my shorts while I was in line at Royal Farms.
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| 12:58 |
: It does not “depend”, Dan. Bread should be of the tough variety. End of story.
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| 12:58 |
: I can’t for the life of me remember why the Mets used that image. Do you, and if so, can you remind me?
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| 12:58 |
: I don’t even remember at this point
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| 12:58 |
: After Segura, Jerry really doesn’t have anything that anyone else wants. Do you think he moves Leake and Seager on the free because he can’t sit still?
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| 12:59 |
: I think Leake will go and the team will have trouble moving Seager
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| 12:59 |
: The 3B market has been crappy for awhile
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| 12:59 |
: Should teams have caution about Syndergaard if the Mets really are motivated to move him?
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| 12:59 |
: The Mets have also been motivated to pick up Jay Bruce at times and try to block Michael Conforto every way possible
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| 1:00 |
: The Mets have also been m otivated to give 2018 Jason Vargas 20 starts
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| 1:00 |
: Mr. Met did a bad thing
|
| 1:00 |
: You haven’t seen the Virtual Rays Fan Experience, where you look at your watch a lot, and try to sneak past the 90-year-old usher down into the vacant lower level seats? It’s got a kick-ass Tenchu: Stealth Assassins vibe.
|
| 1:00 |
: Have you seen the Philadelphia Flyers new mascot, will he and the Philadelphia fanatic team up and haunt children’s nightmares like Freddy Krueger?
|
| 1:00 |
: I’m already tired of the forced Gritty memes
|
| 1:00 |
: My cat would not stop clawing the new couch. So I bought a small scratching post with a fuzzy ball on a string and put it next to the couch. She played with ball, eventually tore it off the string, ripped off the fuzzy cover and played with the rattle inside. Next I rubbed catnip all over the scratching post. She was delighted, sniffing and licking it, rubbing herself on it with delighted mews. Then she went over and clawed the couch.
|
| 1:01 |
: You just have to realize that you can’t have nice things *and* a cat
|
| 1:01 |
: Likelihood that Ryon Healy gets traded this offseason?
|
| 1:01 |
: Fairly high I think and not for much
|
| 1:01 |
: In terms of trade value, he’s really just really-irish-sounding-Brandon-Moss
|
| 1:01 |
: If Kyle Seager is on the opening day Mariner roster in 2019, that’s going to really feel like a dog having to wear a cone of shame, right? You know Jerry offered to pay your whole salary and give up tickets to Neil Diamond and still nobody wanted you.
|
| 1:01 |
: Going into his age-31 season with 1634 GP, does Justin Upton have a chance to set the record for most GP played by a non-HOFer not named Pete Rose or Barry Bonds (currently held by Vizquel at 2968)
|
| 1:02 |
: That’s still a lot of years
|
| 1:02 |
: Would you agree that the likelihood is greater than 50% that a Mets player will spontaneously combust within the next 6 years? Similarly, would you agree that, should an MLB player spontaneously combust, the likelihood is 100% that that player would be a Met?
|
| 1:02 |
: Yes and yes, naturally
|
| 1:02 |
: OK, time for the LIghtning Round!
|
| 1:03 |
: As usual the rules are simple. Except for a few categories I don’t have to answer (work related, excessively personal, vulgar, politics), I have to answer every off-topic question during the Lightning Round, no matter how little insight I have into the subject.
|
| 1:03 |
: Vegas shows: Penn & Teller, Le Reve, Absinthe, O, Ka. Skip One, Mystere, Zumanity. Optional: Love.
|
| 1:03 |
: Not really interested in shows, honestly
|
| 1:03 |
: Thoughts on Magnus offering a draw in game 12 with a superior position just so he could destroy Fabi in Rapid?
|
| 1:03 |
: I thought he was in a strong position, but I’m also not sufficiently good at chess to be able to read a grandmaster’s mind, even in hindsight
|
| 1:03 |
: But he a terrific rapid player so you can see why.
|
| 1:03 |
: I think all championships should be rapid, a decidedly minority opinion
|
| 1:03 |
: The only key ingredient in chili is the Guatemalan insanity pepper
|
| 1:04 |
: I’m just your memory. I can’t give you any new information.
|
| 1:04 |
: What’s your deal with beans in chili?
|
| 1:04 |
: They’re morally and culinarily wrong.
|
| 1:04 |
: Chili is meat + chili peppers + seasoning
|
| 1:05 |
: Lightning is dangerous, Dan
|
| 1:05 |
: SO I hear
|
| 1:05 |
: Did the Special Edition ending of Return of the Jedi suck?
|
| 1:05 |
: FREE SEBASTIAN SHAW
|
| 1:06 |
: If I saw Hayden Christensen I’d be thinking HOLY CRAP THE BAD GUYS WON
|
| 1:06 |
: Why would anyone ever use two straps and a barrel as an emergency substitute for clothes? Just fashion the two straps into a sumo diaper and get on with your day.
|
| 1:06 |
: It comes from a time with far more barrel availability
|
| 1:06 |
: I’m not even sure where you get a barrel in a pinch
|
| 1:07 |
: I think it’s more likely you have to steal a milk crate thing from a grocery store dumpster and use it as a genital cage tied around your lower back
|
| 1:07 |
: Have you played Fallout: New Vegas? Worthwhile to do that before going to Vegas to learn the area landmarks. Plus it’s the ebst 3D Fallout.
|
| 1:07 |
: I actually skipped that one!
|
| 1:07 |
: Why isn’t corn grown in winter?
|
| 1:07 |
: Weather?
|
| 1:07 |
: what if the chili has only beans
|
| 1:07 |
: Then it’s just beans
|
| 1:07 |
: Hitler also preferred his chili without beans, Dan.
|
| 1:08 |
: Hitler was a vegetarian.
|
| 1:08 |
: HITLER HAD THE BEANS-ONLY CHILI
|
| 1:08 |
: Why, though? Why must we be shackled to idiosyncratic definitions of food? Hasn’t the humble sandwich been through enough, much less noble chili?
|
| 1:08 |
: Putting beans in chili is like putting nilla wafers in tacos.
|
| 1:08 |
: I feel like chili has taken over the food discussion and we overlook your other faults like saying that hot dogs are not sandwiches and pop tarts are raviolis
|
| 1:08 |
: If a baby vomits on your shoulder is it cooler to leave it, so people know you are the kind of guy who takes care of your child, or mop it up, and have people think you are clean?
|
| 1:08 |
: I would clean it as it would be super gross
|
| 1:08 |
: If you paid for the rights to Disco Stu, would you rethink his position, and advertise?
|
| 1:09 |
: Disco Stu doesn’t advertise and I’m not going to dilute his brand by pivoting to video.
|
| 1:09 |
: I heard a bunch of barrels are available at Niagara Falls
|
| 1:09 |
: Have you played Red Dead Redemption 2 yet?
|
| 1:09 |
: I have not
|
| 1:09 |
: Most scotch distilleries have barrels, Dan.
|
| 1:09 |
: Yeah, but how many scotch distilleries are you going to find when you’re just roaming around in your local neighborhood and ahve lost your clothes?
|
| 1:09 |
: I just realized there is another matt in the chat, I’ve been outcompeted for questions by this other matt, what can I do Dan?
|
| 1:09 |
: Murder
|
| 1:10 |
: When is chili just another word for sofrito?
|
| 1:10 |
: Sofrito and chili aren’t the same
|
| 1:10 |
: Hitler wasn’t a strict vegetarian. He ate a bullet at one point.
|
| 1:10 |
: But he didn’t digets it
|
| 1:10 |
: If you could be raised by a spider that looks like an ant or an actual ant, which would you prefer?
|
| 1:10 |
: Spider. Spiders have a lot of practical weaving skills.
|
| 1:10 |
: Ants just teach you to work on a farm, which I don’t know if I’d like.
|
| 1:13 |
: Which current Cub makes the best chili?
|
| 1:13 |
: Schwarber?
|
| 1:13 |
: Whoa. Firsat you tell me you don’t like beans in chili. Then you tell me you don’t put Nilla Wafers on tacos?
|
| 1:13 |
: How much easier is your job now that Meg replaced Cistulli?
|
| 1:13 |
: I don’t have to order holy water!
|
| 1:13 |
: pop tarts are not raviolis. Raviolis are pop tarts!
|
| 1:14 |
: I’m flying out to Kettering, OH tomorrow, any food spots I should hit up besides Skylne Chili?
|
| 1:14 |
: El Meson
|
| 1:14 |
: I’d like to log a complaint with Fangraphs that Dan Szymborski has advocated violence against me, the original Matt.
|
| 1:14 |
: I didn’t say which Matt should kill which Matt. That’s for you guys to work out between you
|
| 1:14 |
: If someone steals my identity and I subsequently hunt down and kill said identity thief, can I get away with it by claiming I legally killed myself, and suicide is not illegal?
|
| 1:14 |
: I don’t think you’d get away with it
|
| 1:15 |
: Since one of you would prove to not be you
|
| 1:15 |
: You can be arrested for having child pornography of yourself, for example
|
| 1:15 |
: Jerry DiPoto traded the beans out of his chili
|
| 1:15 |
: Baby vomit smells bad. Leaving it there is not even an option
|
| 1:15 |
: Ok, chunks of meat or ground meat in your chili?
|
| 1:15 |
: Chunks of meat that are really soft because of the long cooking
|
| 1:15 |
: Forget the barrel! I’m saying you have two perfectly good straps. They make legitimate clothes with less material. Tuck your junk in that barrel-strap thong and move along.
|
| 1:15 |
: Sometimes people who run out of clothes in public are modest
|
| 1:16 |
: Are you enjoying Fallout 76?
|
| 1:16 |
: Haven’t played yet
|
| 1:16 |
: This is a bad time of year for me to start new games
|
| 1:16 |
: My 18 month old nephew has a howitzer for an arm. How can I encourage him to keep throwing hard while also keeping all of the windows intact?
|
| 1:16 |
: Have him throw the ball at your neighbors
|
| 1:16 |
: Where do you think you rank on the worldwide list of Beyonce impersonators? Don’t be modest.
|
| 1:16 |
: Bottom third
|
| 1:16 |
: You’re armed with only Socker Boppers from the 90s. You must fend off zombie toddlers approaching you in hordes. How many do you annihilate before succumbing to lethal ankle bites?
|
| 1:16 |
: Not many. You’d have to resort to smothering which isn’t good against gruops
|
| 1:16 |
: Do you regard the Italians as a culinary backwater because they never realized how close they were to cooking chili?
|
| 1:16 |
: They didn’t put beans in, so they’re fine
|
| 1:17 |
: I feel like I’m in an episode with two clones and I have to shoot the evil one, WHICH MATT DO I SHOOT DAN?!?
|
| 1:17 |
: Both to be sure. Haven’t you heard Benjamin Franklin’s quote that it’s better to stop two innocent Matts rather than let one go free?
|
| 1:17 |
: Hypothetically, lets say that tomorrow, Chuck Schumer proposes a bill to congress banning all chili from *not* having beans. Is this something you’d be willing to sacrifice your life on? As a martyr to the sans-bean cause?
|
| 1:17 |
: No, I just wouldn’t eat chili
|
| 1:17 |
: I’m not a revolutionary.
|
| 1:17 |
: Okay, suppose a baby raised on spider milk spits up on your shoulder? Do you out it to the other ants?
|
| 1:18 |
: Gross, still wiping it up
|
| 1:18 |
: Are you sure your parents didn’t give you Dinty Moore beef stew as a child and tell you it’s chili?
|
| 1:18 |
: Yes
|
| 1:18 |
: Which would make baseball more watchable for non fans: 16 seconds between in-at-bat pitches, or 7 innings?
|
| 1:18 |
: quicker pitches. I don’t think it’s game length htat’s the problem, it’s the down time
|
| 1:18 |
: Isn’t a pop-tart more of a pyrogi?
|
| 1:18 |
: pierogies are pop tarts
|
| 1:18 |
: Have you considered selling your nephew to the military? Howitzer Arm cyborgs are right up their alley
|
| 1:18 |
: My nephew’s not quite born, so I’d need a lot of cooperation from my sister
|
| 1:19 |
: If the original Mini Pops released a new album now would you buy it?
|
| 1:19 |
: As long as it’s the most explicit songs
|
| 1:19 |
: Kidz Bop Sings Lil John
|
| 1:19 |
: Remember when the Red Hot Chili Peppers put socks on their junk? When will someone do the same thing, but with Hulk Hands?
|
| 1:19 |
: I’m surprised it hasn’t been done
|
| 1:19 |
: I think one thing me and the fake Matt can agree on is no beans in chili ?
|
| 1:19 |
: Would you rather have a full Burt Reynolds moustache above your belly button or toes for fingers?
|
| 1:20 |
: Reynolds moustache
|
| 1:20 |
: Isn’t spider milk just Mountain Dew?
|
| 1:20 |
: Yes
|
| 1:21 |
: My gf likes facts and her favorite subject is the civil war. What’s a civil war fact I can use to appease her?
|
| 1:21 |
: after the battle of shiloh, some of the wounds attracted luminescent bacteria
|
| 1:21 |
: I was talking to Ozzie, Dan
|
| 1:21 |
: Are mollusks just nature’s sandwiches?
|
| 1:21 |
: No, because you can’t eat the shells
|
| 1:22 |
: Chuck Klosterman or David Sedaris? who makes a better sandwich?
|
| 1:22 |
: I think Klosterman
|
| 1:22 |
: Did someone have a talk with Carson about the colored money in Canada and how everybody still loves the tragically hip? I worry that he won’t be prepared.
|
| 1:22 |
: I think Carson will be down for this
|
| 1:22 |
: When a bower bird makes a nest with beautifully curated trash, is that art?
|
| 1:22 |
: Not if there’s no artistic intent
|
| 1:22 |
: Hey there, stranger, the only way to prove your true baseball fandom is by touching lips with me, a decidedly un-grandma-ish woman of vague Polish descent.
|
| 1:22 |
: I didn’t have a polish grandmother! Now I know you’re a liar, fake ghost
|
| 1:22 |
: Imposter Matt has similarly wrong view on chili as you do, Dan. Are you guys going to get married, or what?
|
| 1:22 |
: RE: barrel availability: Home Depot sells barrels for your home garden as a wholly unnecessary aesthetic item. This is where you go for your barrel in a pinch.
|
| 1:22 |
: are the bottoms already out?
|
| 1:23 |
: Mountain Dew or Crab juice?
|
| 1:23 |
: crab juice
|
| 1:23 |
: RE: Hulk Hands — copyright issues
|
| 1:23 |
: “Friendly fire”. That’s a funny term, like civil war.
|
| 1:23 |
: I hope Carson is ready to start wearing a lot of ROOTS
|
| 1:23 |
: Fangraphs with a few spaces makes Fang Rap HS, which sounds like the most badass high school in the country.
|
| 1:23 |
: “are the bottoms already out” — same old refrain, Dan
|
| 1:23 |
: If I dont’ have clothes, I want to make sure kicking otu the bottom of a barrel won’t be too hard
|
| 1:23 |
: I don’t know how good the cooper that home depot uses is.
|
| 1:23 |
: OK END CHAT
|
| 1:23 |
: GO AWAY
|
| 1:24 |
: Thanks for joining me everyone! As a reminder, you can find my work at FanGraphs all-the-time now, whether that’s to your benefit or not.
|
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
RE: the 10 win player trade.
While there is some benefit to the 10 win player over two fives because of roster constraints, you also diversified your risk a bit. Lets say an average position player has a 2% chance of sustaining a major injury that will cost them a full season.
With a 10 win player, you have exactly that, a 2% chance of getting 0 wins and 98% for 10 wins. With two five win players it would work out to :
96.04% for 10 wins
3.92% for 5 wins
0.04% for 0 wins
Over a large enough sample you end up at 9.8 wins either way, but the latter almost completely avoids the -10 win scenario