Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/8/24

Dan Szymborski: If you can’t do the chat time, don’t do the chat crime

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know what that means either, like most things out of my mouth

the person who asks the lunch question: what’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing, this isn’t an eating Thursday

Andy Dufresne: Are you bullish on Correa exceeding his projections now that the foot (and septum) are fixed?

Dan Szymborski: Mildly so? I tend to be skeptical over “OK, this fixes the injury thing for good” things

TomBruno23: Ben Hochman with a column for today’s P-D proclaiming Jordan Walker to be the next STL 20 HR 20 SB player and I say to Benjamin it might take Jordan Walker 40 SB Attempts to get 20 SB.

Dan Szymborski: Probably a little TOO negative

Marlins Man: Jonah Bride had great stats in triple-a. What’s stopping him from doing this at mlb level?

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say, but remember, players are quite volatile. I think he’ll be OKish

Anon21: Max Fried: a Brave in 2025? Atlanta has been gun-shy about free agents in general and have allowed Freeman and Swanson to walk the past two offseasons.

Dan Szymborski: I actually think they’ll work it out

TomBruno23: Burnes was cool but let’s always remember the acquisition for the O’s under new ownership was Andrew Suarez. Forever a Cardinal.

The Oriole Bird: Pickle’s Pub: Before game, during game, after game, or all 3?  (I once stayed at the hotel right behind it with my kids after going to a game.  Pro tip: Ask for a room on the other side of the hotel.)

Dan Szymborski: I don’t usually do places right near the stadium

Dan Szymborski: I rather go to Canton or Fells Point or go over and get some pit beef

SAWA: Is spring training (squeezed between the season and offseason) a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: Only if you can eat it and it’s not hinged

Greg: Do you see a potential upside scenario in the Pirates rotation where Gonzales and Perez provide a serviceable first half of the season and then some combination of Burrows/Brubaker returning from injury plus Skenes/Jones call ups result in a middle-of-the-pack full season rotation scenario for the Pirates?

Dan Szymborski: It’s POSSIBLE, but my money is below average

Richard: The year is 3034. The Baltimore Orioles have exceeded their ZiPS projections for over 1000 straight years. Dan Szymborski continues to serve his lifetime sentence for Oriole disrespect and slander.
*Orioles Twitter wakes up from its fever dream*

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a nightmare for people if they have to listen to me for a thousand years

Tim: Now that we are several years removed from COVID, did the shortened 2020 season impact projection systems in any way?  It seems like the general consensus is that the lost season was particularly hard on younger players in the minors, who by now would be entering their age 25, 26 etc. season.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t really spent enough time looking at the long-term effect

TomBruno23: The Drive to 85 Wins in the NL Central really could not be more exciting. Oh baby.

Royals and Witt: Doesn’t KC’s signing Witt kind of demonstrate the small-market teams can, in fact, afford to compete to keep their players if they’re willing to take the initiative?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: But some teams don’t want to pay in risk OR currency

Chat Burglar: You’ll never chat me copper

Richard: Do you consider deGrom to have more of an injury “reset” after his UCL surgery? Should we expect injury prevalence to mirror other similarly aged pitchers?

Dan Szymborski: At this point, I have zero idea what to expect

Who’s Fabio: Hey Dan, just for fun, what do the AL ZiPS projected standings look like when you apply your whimsy instead of logic and reasoning?  Can you force the non MLB team to kind of compete?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll figure out how to make my cats shut up when I’m on the phone long before I can make the A’s compete

Guest: Does Jackson Merrill play in the majors this year?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pop In and maybe even quite a lot

Dan Szymborski: I’m under the impression that they were at least thinking of it LAST year

Dan Szymborski: And I know they’re giving him more time in the outfield in the hopes of him getting some playing time in the majors quickly

Dan Szymborski: and frankly, given the state of their outfield, they may NEED him quickly

Greg: Has there ever been a scenario in one of your ZiPS season simulations where there was a 5-way tie for the division? NL central has potential!

Dan Szymborski: I’ll have to check. And I can’t check every year, but I’ll check 2024

Tacoby Bellsbury: What transaction this winter do you most fear you’ll be wrong about?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t THINK I’m wrong, but I do worry about being wrong about Reds transactions the most, since they’re the fans that have the most convenient access to murder me

Zach: Do you publish intervals for team projections? Would be curious to know which teams ZiPS thinks have the largest (and smallest) range of plausible outcomes

Dan Szymborski: I will on the final ones

site issues: Not sure where to send this, but Fangraphs pages seem to be occasionally sending me to a McAfee spam site lately. I’m not getting this issue on other websites.

Dan Szymborski: We’ve had some reports of that, I know David’s been looking into it

Self Centered A-hole: So about my fantasy team.  I adopted a stinker and rebuilding.  How would you suggest I use zips projections on prospects to sort out the guys that are boom/bust types (who i would rather bet on) than guys that are more likely to be big leaguers, but with a very limited ceiling.  Thanks for helping with my team because my team is what’s REALLY important here.  to me!

Dan Szymborski: Those team pages have the 80th/20th percentiles!

JDizzle: On the new Fangraphs projections…What do u make of the Braves at 26.5% winning the WS, while the Dodgers are only at 15.5%? Thought that might be closer.

Dan Szymborski: Since I don’t DO those numbers myself, my insight is kinda limited

Dan Szymborski: But the 10 percentage point bump in division winning probability helps that

Dan Szymborski: Becasue it’s a bfd to get that bye

JDizzle: Which OF’er do u like more as a last-round pick in a Best Ball Points league? K Carpenter or J Kelenic?

Dan Szymborski: Kelenic

TomBruno23: Grateful Dead 12.14.80 Long Beach CA going well with this chat. Berta don’t you come around here…anymore…

Cat Latos: How do my cat friends do?

Dan Szymborski: Justinian’s on my office windowsill watching a white squirrel. Last I saw, Mercutio was asleep in the living room, Cassiopeia asleep on the couch in the back TV room upstairs, and Constantine was hanging out on the kitchen counter staking out when he gets food

Champdo: so with all the sturm und drang over the Tigers choosing Jobe over Mayer it seems like Jobe has turned into a pretty good prospect.

Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, it’s hard to do TOO badly when you pick because of the uncertainty

Dan Szymborski: unless you do like the Pirates did with Moskos or something

Trader Jerry’s: How much does the projection correction on Gregory Santos affect your opinion on the trade that sent him to Seattle?

Dan Szymborski: None. He’s still damn good

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t even realize he was leading the league in fWAR in the projections since ZiPS is only partially FIP-based in its war

Mark: Spencer Steer more than just a guy this year?

Dan Szymborski: I mean, he’s solid, but he’s not really a star and has a relatively low ceiling

Sandwich Snob: i used to go to Subway for sandwiches.  But they now use a hinge cut where there’s one piece of bread and the meat slapped inside.  I am afraid this mirrors a hot dog bun in most respects and all intelligent life on earth knows a hot dog is NOT a sandwich.  Wouldn’t a Subway sandwich with a hinge cut be equally NOT a sandwich?  I’d love a meatball sub, but I can’t eat that if it’s not a sandwich and you’re the expert on that topic.  What’s your position?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it’s not a sandwich. BUt you can still enjoy a meatball non-sandwich

Moose: Are you taking the over or under on your creation’s projected win-loss record for the Mariners (85-77)?

Dan Szymborski: Over because it’s not quite .540

Mike Tyson: Designated Hitter: Which MLB player do you think could take me in a street fight?

Mike Tyson: Designated Hitter: and please tell me that Colton Cowser will head up a package that gets him to Chicago for Cease.

Dan Szymborski: None

Dan Szymborski: And I don’t think the White Sox are realistic

romorr: A lot of people think Elias is going to piecemeal a BP together over the season. Okay with that? Or do you think we should be aggressive and try to add through FA, or a trade.

Dan Szymborski: It’s tricky to do that DURING the season

Dan Szymborski: The Rays usually have their “dudes they found on a park bench that end up with a 3.50 ERA” guys at least in the organization by now

Red: I get when non statistically inclined people get mad at ZiPS output. But that O’s fan yesterday who was screaming variable issues for not predicting 90th percentile outcomes as a baseline the last two years was uh, something

Dan Szymborski: Someone with an economics background ought to be less dumb.

Dadgut: Mariners playoff odds don’t seem to line up with what ZiPS is saying here, with the Rangers doing significantly better. Is it because ZiPS weighs the last season more heavily than Steamer?

Dan Szymborski: Again, that kind of thing is really hard to grok

Dan Szymborski: I THINK I can capture depth better than our FG generalized model

Dan Szymborski: Which I should, because mine is a nightmare to set up that takes forever

Dan Szymborski: and the FG methodology is made so that it can run any time Jason makes any change on the depth charts

Zach: I’m curious how ZiPS handles predictions for players like DeGrom and Scherzer, where there is both a wide range of possible outcomes for IP this year and presumably a wide range of potential performance level, and (I think) relatively little historic precedent.

Dan Szymborski: I mean, there’s a lot of data in there about injured pitchers

Dan Szymborski: But ZiPS will mostly confirm that it’s horribly uncertain

Gold Star: How do you think Lux will do at SS for the Dodgers this season? Relatedly, is he LA’s starter there in the postseason?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be adequate, but not really one of the standouts. I mean you always have to temper expectations after an injury year, and I like Lux. But I don’t think there are great candidates out there to replace him

Dan Szymborski: Like would the Padres actually do a late season Kim trade to Dodgers? Not sure about that

TomBruno23: Taylor Swift announces The Eras movie streaming on Disney and stock up over 12% today. Sorry, right wing nut jobs.

Dan Szymborski: Maybe I’m just an old, but I don’t get why people care so much about Swift either way

Dan Szymborski: She’s a pop singer and has some popular albums. OK. So? And?

Dan Szymborski: I also don’t care who is dating who.

Dan Szymborski: I just don’t care about things that are either a) not my problem or b) not my business

Red Sox: Will you watch the Netflix doc about the 2024 Red Sox?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe, if people report it being interesting

Dan Szymborski: I watch enough baseball and talk enough baseball and baseball news that if it’s not really something novel, I don’t need to add it

JDizzle: What’s the meaning of life?

Dan Szymborski: Enjoying a very brief existence in a largely cold, dark universe in which that’s a rarity

JDizzle: Any way W Franco or T Bauer plays in the MLB this year?

Dan Szymborski: Franco could if there was some sudden development in the case that was favorable to him, but I don’t know what that would be

Dan Szymborski: As for Bauer, I think teams are extremely hesitant to get into that stuff

Dan Szymborski: Especially since Bauer isn’t a guy who is willing to be quiet and below the radar

Szymby: If Taylor Swift has swifties can I be a Szymbie?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not really big on fan culture, honestly

Dan Szymborski: That’s just a personal thing

Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, I base my life on things that amuse me, and praise doesn’t really amuse me.

Insert Witty Name Here: re: Swift – it’s a corporate money scheme. People will pay lots of money for Swift related anything.

Dan Szymborski: I’m all for corporate money schemes.

Dan Szymborski: As some of you may remember, to your chagrin, I’m a hardcore free market-er

Dan Szymborski: If she wants ot make a billion dollars selling coins with her head on it, good for her

Dan Szymborski: I just don’t particularly *care* about it one way or the other

Dan Szymborski: Not my circus, not my clowns

anxious Yankees fan: Which one of Cortes, Rodon, Stanton, or Rizzo do you think are most likely to return to form

Dan Szymborski: Cortes

Sad Angels Fan: Can the ZIPS machine compute whether the angels will ever make me happy again anytime this decade

Dan Szymborski: AGAIN? Have they made you happy recently? I’m suspicious of the veracity of that statement

nate: Will austin riley win an mvp

Dan Szymborski: He COULD, but he’ll probably enter most seasons in his prime being like the 10th most likely

Joey Caltrain: Who would be the funniest baseball player for the Pentagon to use for psyops and why?

Dan Szymborski: Zack Greinke

Dan Szymborski: because he’d have all the fucks not to give and break the op instantly

Jose Altuve: In light of his extension, how likely is he to have another mvp caliber season? Did his 90 game season of dominance hurt his chances at 3000 because of the lower number of hits he had or help his chances because he demonstrated continued high level play?

Dan Szymborski: The missed time is actually more concerning than the good season is helpful

Dan Szymborski: He may have another one in him, but it ought to be quick

Dan Szymborski: the history of middle infielder aging is not good

Chip: What would your WAR-metric equivalent be if you were to make a ZIPS model for human pathogens?

Dan Szymborski: DAM: Deaths Above Misadventure

Homer: I think it’d be shocking at this point if Fried stays with the Braves all things considered – feels like a near lock for one of the California teams

Tacoby Bellsbury: It’s pretty clear that chili is your least favorite pasta dish. What is your most favorite pasta dish? And which major-leaguer would you compare that pasta dish to, and why?

Dan Szymborski: CHILI IS NOT A PASTA DISH

Dan Szymborski: Rowdy Tellez seems like a heaping pile of pasta

Dan Szymborski: I tend to like a good ol’ bolognese

Ghinga: This is easily one of the most quotable fig chats in recent memory.

Dan Szymborski: I HAVENT ANSWERED ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT FIGS

Dan Szymborski: QUICK, GIVE ME QUESTIONS ABOUT FIGS AND I WILL ANSWER THEM ALL

Insert Witty Name Here: Fig Newtons or Issac Newton?

Dan Szymborski: Figs netwons as you can eat them

Joey Caltrain: How many turkeys could a turkey fig turkey if a turkey fig could turkey figs?

Dan Szymborski: A pound of figs per pound of turkey per year

Guest: How many types of figs are there?

Dan Szymborski: Two: eaten and non-eaten

Fargum: what are generic fig newtons called

Dan Szymborski: Most grocery stores I’ve seen just call them fig bars

Dan Szymborski: Me, I’d go higher concept for my generic fig newtons

Dan Szymborski: maybe call them Fig Euclids or Fig Leibnizes

Dan Szymborski: Figonaccis!

Dan Szymborski: THE FIGONACCI NUMBER IS 140 CALORIES PER SERVING

liam: figs vs dates who would win

Dan Szymborski: I personally prefer figs

Joey Caltrain: Figs or dates?

ZiPS me like one of your French girls: When my wife was pregnant she had to eat a ton of figs and dates. She hates them now

Dan Szymborski: I’ve eaten a lot of figs and never became pregnant!

Ghinga: Fg* sorry.  But on that note, do you like figs? And do you prefer them dried or fresh?

Dan Szymborski: I tend to prefer dried

Figgy Pudding: Is not really pudding, is it?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing the English say is a food something actually is

wheelhouse: Is there a way for ZiPS to project what % of the time the yankees’ first 5 starters combine for 139 starts, as ZiPS DC has them right now? I know that’s an injury projection and probably highly variable but that seems so high for a median projection

Dan Szymborski: In the season sims, I actually project less

Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, I’m more pessimistic about pitcher health than our depth charts

Chip: If you were to build a ZIPS program for fruit, what would the WAR-metric equivalent be and how many units would figs get?

Dan Szymborski: Deliciousness Shares

Ceaseless Turmoil Seething: Will the White Sox regret turning down the Burnes+ package from the O’s?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Ceaseless Turmoil Seething: Was the Burnes move a start or a stop to this O’s off-season?

Dan Szymborski: Probably a stop as there’s not much offseason left

Guest: Two related questions: 1. Is it fair to say that the projections don’t do as good of a job as they do the regular season?2. Do you believe that the best team always wins the World Series?
Just as with late last regular season, both projection models and experts agree that the Braves and Dodgers  appear to be heavy favorites in the NL. Yet, neither made it to the NLCS. These are odds, of course, and there’s a lot of room for variance, especially in the current postseason baseball.

Dan Szymborski: Depends what you mean good job

Dan Szymborski: Obviously, the “average” projections are worse. But the probabilities work since projections count for the uncertainty

Dan Szymborski: and 2: definitely no!

Joey Caltrain: Forget figs. As an SF fan, I’d like to know how you feel about fog

Dan Szymborski: Fog’s usually burned off by the time I wake up

Ghinga: I just saw Brent Honeywell signed with the pirates, on an actually baseball related note.  What is your opinion of the last remaining major league screw baller?

Dan Szymborski: I’m unconvinced Devin Williams doesn’t throw a screwball

Dan Szymborski: but I’m all for screwballs

Danny Jansen’s Goggles: Devin Williams basically throws a screwball

Dan Szymborski: BEAT YOU TO IT BY LIKE SEVEN SECONDS

Guest: Do you think ZiPS would be better at projecting baseball if there were 1000 games per season?

Dan Szymborski: I guess, but you can’t actually have the guys play 1000 games, it would be split squad

Dan Szymborski: so practically speaking, there’s probalby a peak of 300 games or so?

Altuve follow up: Thank You for your time! I have a question about the history of MI’s aging poorly. Is this a skill thing? As in they tend to accumulate value based on speed, quickness, and contact skills and those wane? If so, might Altuve extend his window of value by continuing to focus on power hitting and perhaps shifting to DH more often? He might accrue less value but remain more offensively effective that way

Dan Szymborski: Why is tricky, the what is hard enough!

Scotsman: Have you ever had Black Pudding Dan

Dan Szymborski: I have actually

Dan Szymborski: its was weirdly gritty

Dan Szymborski: like they put a little sand in it for filler

Dan Szymborski: and it felt like I was chewing it forever but it wasn’t doing anythign

David: Are there any FO’s that essentially only use predictive stats and ignore on field results?

Dan Szymborski: Not that I’m aware of

Dan Szymborski: but I can only make educated guesses. I talk with most front offices to some extent, but they’re usually careful about WHAT they say

Danny Jansen’s Goggles: Are you as optimistic about Vladdy as the projections?

Dan Szymborski: I think so. He’s still a pretty young player

Dan Szymborski: I mean he doesn’t turn 25 until next month

Dan Szymborski: He’s not a 30 year old who is up and down

Babe Ruth’s Submerged Piano.: Am I a baseball relic worth displaying in the Hall of Fame? Sox fans had a theory that my removal was integral to their breaking the curse!

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so because pianos take up a huge amount of space

ZiPS me like one of your French girls: Dan, so excited for prospect week this year! Can you do more ZiPS prospecting content? Perhaps some SSS projections for more of the 2023 draftees? Go 200 deep (or at least go deeper down the list for pitchers)? It’s genuinely one of the best articles every year on the site and I neeeeeed more! TY TY

Dan Szymborski: I could, but I try to keep the ZIPS ONLY content to a few select things

Dan Szymborski: because projections can be kind of dry and I hate falling into the trap of writing ABOUT the projections rather than USING the projections

Ghinga: Just hang the piano on the ceiling.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve seen enough cartoons and 1930s movies to know that’s a bad idea

Aniel Hernandez: How is Gary Sheffield not in the HOF?

Dan Szymborski: By not getting the 75% of votes required!

Dan Szymborski: I suspect the vets will get him in

Chip: Who was the last guy that showed up in your projections who made you think ‘woah, that guy is still playing?’

Dan Szymborski: Joe Beimel 2022

Dan Szymborski: I think the last couple years of Joe SMith too

Dan Szymborski: I had kinda missed the Joe Beimel comeback story in 2022

Dan Szymborski: Well, 2021 tehcnically

Dan Szymborski: I just throw in the every minor league pitcher who got at least 10 IP at AA in the initial batch

Dan Szymborski: so when I saw a 45 year-old Joe Beimel getting a projection for 2022, it was a real WTF moment

Guest: meat-forward bolognese, like authentic ragu alla bolognese? or tomato sauce with meat?

Dan Szymborski: the former

Aniel Hernandez: Who are some players you think will have a “breakout” year this upcoming season?

Dan Szymborski: Hey, not giving out one of my standard preseason tropes! lol

Ken: Good afternoon, Dan. This has probably been asked previously, so apologies, but I couldn’t find the answer. Is there a reason the numbers of projected players doesn’t match when the projections are run through the auction calculator?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually know since I dont’ handle that at all

Greg: Boy I shouldn’t have shown up late today, it looks like I missed so figging much…

Insert Witty Name Here: why do people care so much about people in pajamas throwing a ball to someone who tries to hit it with a piece of wood?

Dan Szymborski: Hitting things is fun!

HappyFunBall: re: no eating days. Certainly you drink something. Is it just water or would you, say, allow for coffee? I have a significant enough addiction that I develop a headache around noon if I’ve not a had a cup. But also I would think the caffeine to be a nice help in avoiding hunger

Dan Szymborski: I have this 64 ounce water jug that I drink every day

Dan Szymborski: Well, the water IN the jug

Dan Szymborski: I don’t convert the water dug into a molten liquid and then drink it

Nolan: How much computing power does it take to crunch a season’s worth of ZiPS projections?

Dan Szymborski: If I use both my main PC (Ryzen 5900X) and my secondary PC (i7-8700K) and split up the workload, I can have a ZiPS batch run done in about 30 hours

Aniel Hernandez: Best time of the season to go visit a ballpark?

Dan Szymborski: Early and late. I hate hot, humid weather

Dan Szymborski: Even if I sit in a nice cool press box, I hate being in the hot humid at all

Dan Szymborski: I frigging HATE summer  weather

Joey Caltrain: If you had to eliminate one position on the diamond, what would it be?

Dan Szymborski: Catcher because it woudl be amusing to see how baseball figured out how to stop the ball and get it back to the pitcher

Dan Szymborski: You might have to put one of those bouncy net things behind home plate

Dan Szymborski: and it would be funny to see a batter swing and miss at a 98 mph fastball and then fastball bounces off and shoots out towards the pitcher

2013 NCAA worst player: do you have a strong opinion one way or the other on python vs R?

Dan Szymborski: Not really

Dan Szymborski: I’m not a programming guy

Dan Szymborski: I’m old enough that R wasn’t huge yet when I was in college (I’m 46 in June) and I took C++ to get that credit

Dan Szymborski: I know visual basic sorta

Dan Szymborski: and in college we used statistica and matlab mostly

Dan Szymborski: And I like GUIs

Dan Szymborski: On that note, if you guys give a fig about me getting the NL projections up tomorrow, I gotta head out

Dan Szymborski: thanks for coming everyone!