Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/15/17 by Carson Cistulli February 15, 2017 1:59 CamdenWarehouse: What’s this? An as-scheduled Dan Chat! 2:00 Dan Szymborski: Neither me nor Carson were incompetent this week! 2:00 Dan Szymborski: Welcome to SzymChat. Thankfully, I’m not violently ill this week. 2:00 JimLindeman15: Besides one less spider in the K classroom for Matheny, how do you see the Reyes injury affecting the 2017 Cardinals? 2:01 Dan Szymborski: Badly. Knocks off another couple wins, which the team can’t really afford and he had such high upside this year. 2:01 CamdenWarehouse: You were in the area and no Fangraphs meetup at the Corner Stable? 2:01 Dan Szymborski: It was just me, Hang Out with Dan isn’t really enough to organize a meetup. 2:01 Colin: Does Zips use any Statcast / batted ball data? 2:01 Dan Szymborski: Latter yes, former still working with the data. 2:02 Dirk Diggler: Who do you like more for this year (saves don’t matter) Matt Strahm or Carl Edwards Jr? 2:02 Dan Szymborski: Carls Jr. 2:02 Nick Markakis: You keep my name out yo’ mouth, ya hear!?! 2:02 Zock jr: Well look who decided to show up. (Jk, #ImpeachPresidentCistulli) 2:02 CamdenWarehouse: Is Fister a match for the Orioles, assuming Tillman is down for a while? 2:02 Dan Szymborski: There are certainly worse matches. 2:02 @marklxndr: sick and tired of everyone pretending mike trout is even good at baseball. his career obp is only .405. how many WAR does ZiPS think an ACTUAL good baseball player with a career 1.000/1.000/4.000 batting line is worth? that guy would be pretty good. 2:02 Dan Szymborski: All the wins? 2:03 Dan: It would never happen, but who says no: Gleyber Torres straight up for Kyle Schwarber? 2:03 Dan Szymborski: Both teams, I think 2:03 Rb: Is it too risky for the white Sox to hang on to Quintana until the deadline risking him getting hurt? 2:03 Dan Szymborski: I think it’s risky. If you have a pitcher that’s playing awesomely and is healthy, the future expectation is always lower. 2:03 Jesse: Hey Dan, do you people still call you Dave? 2:03 Dan Szymborski: Yes 2:03 Dan Szymborski: I think, the question construction is weird. 2:04 John: From ’14 to ’15 and ’15 to ’16 MadBum threw more IP, lowered his ERA and raised his K/9. 1) Which of the 3 categories will he improve upon again? 2) Do you think/know of any pitcher who has done the same in that span? 2:04 Dan Szymborski: Not offhand, but I’m not sure it’s unique – strikeouts keep going up 2:04 Guest: There must be a correlation between the OBP’s ahead of a given hitter and his RBI total. Has anyone done a study of this? 2:04 Dan Szymborski: ISO and AB w/ ROB is a good RBI predictor, better than actual RBI 2:05 Manny: Would you rather have Bellinger or Jimenez in a dynasty league? Team isn’t competing this year at all 2:05 Dan Szymborski: Are we talking about Eloy Jimenez? There are a lot of Jimenezes 2:06 Dan Szymborski: Depends on how risk averse you are. Bellinger is safer, I think. 2:06 ChiSox2020: What are teams that are going for it now that you think will be sellers at the deadline? 2:07 Dan Szymborski: Royals (I think they think they’re going for it), Marlins, possibly O’s if things go south 2:07 Jesse: What percentage of questions you get in the cue could be answered by people simply looking at the ZiPS projections? 2:07 Dan Szymborski: Quite a few. 2:07 Mike: I have the second pick in my fantasy draft. Do I take Bryant given his positional flexibility (1B/3B/OF), or do I look elsewhere? Yahoo H2H with R, HR, RBI, SB, and OBP as categories. 2:07 Dan Szymborski: If you would take Bryant without the positional flexibility, take him second, if not, don’t. 2:07 Jesse: Does ESPN give you pretty much free rein to write about whatever you like, or are you largely given assignments and edited pretty heavily? 2:08 Dan Szymborski: It’s a work question, but an innocuous one, so I’ll answer. I generally write what I’m interested in writing about, though they do like my topic to have legs. Editing of me is more taste than anything else as I will try to push it a bit with the jokes sometimes. 2:08 Josh R: How much do you think Arizona’s pitching problems last year were bad defense and pitch framing? And do you think they fixed that part at all? I am particularly thinking about Robbie Ray’s chances at a big breakout. 2:08 Dan Szymborski: ZiPS likes Ray too! 2:09 Dan Szymborski: I think some of the weak spots you’d need a lot more blame than just defense. 2:09 cardsjason: Is yulieski gurriel a league average player at 1B this year? 2:09 Dan Szymborski: I’ll take the under, but I think it could be in the neighborhood 2:09 Dan Szymborski: There’s a ton of uncertainty 2:10 Sandy: Do you think the offensive gains made last year by Wilson Ramos are real? 2:10 Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but he could have lost some of it due to injury 2:11 JP: how would you distribute playing time in the LA Dodger outfield? 2:12 Dan Szymborski: I would field a leftfielder, a centerfielder, and a rightfielder. I thought about a topfielder, but outfield positioning tends to be fairly two-dimensional. 2:13 Dan Szymborski: And since I won’t get away with that answer, I’d go Puig, Joc, timeshare between Toles and Van Slyke with Toles filling in at CF. 2:13 Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure Ethier has all that much point. 2:13 Dan Szymborski: And since we’re back to normal, I’m saving the off-topics for the Lightning Round. 2:13 Jesse: Gerrit Cole in 2017 boom or bust? 2:13 Dan Szymborski: cautious boom 2:13 mattZ: Which oitcher are you most optimistic about long-term, Giolito, De Leon, or Reynaldo Lopez? 2:13 Dan Szymborski: Giolito still. 2:13 phred g sanford: Someone asked Dave about Baseball getting his mind of what’s really going on in the world via Baseball. I’ve never gotten the MLB package because it would be like crack. This year I’m getting it and dealing with the addiction 2:14 Dan Szymborski: I don’t know how I would exist without MLB.TV 2:14 Curtis Mann: Am I crazy to think Gleyber Torres reminds me of Howie Kendrick? 2:14 Dan Szymborski: That’s not exactly a bad thing. 2:14 baby bull : is Mookie Betts a better hitter than Manny Machado? 2:14 Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say better, but comparable. 2:14 Jesse: I just remembered a few years ago the Dave/Dan thing was a constant source of humor, but I hadn’t thought about it for a while, thus the question as posed 2:14 Curtis Mann: How do you think Pomeranz will handle the move to the AL East? Is he a #3? 2:14 Dan Szymborski: Fine as long he’s healthy. Just a mid roation guy. 2:15 Jeff in T.O.: Do you still use Netflix like a Neanderthal, or have you upgraded to KODI? 2:15 Dan Szymborski: While I do have Netflix, I have a large local library of movies and TV. Though I generally use Media Player Classic as one of the laptops here drives my office televisions 2:15 Pomeranz: best statistic to predict pitchers about to break out? 2:16 Dan Szymborski: If you’re going to hold me one, K-rate. 2:16 toby: ZIPS seems to think Segura just had a flukey good 2016. WOuld you take the over on the projection? 2:16 Dan Szymborski: No. Tragedy aside, 2016 wasn’t the first year of existence. 2:16 Daniel: Would it make any sense to keep Eaton in RF and have Harper with less ground to cover in CF? 2:17 Dan Szymborski: No 2:17 Daniel: Kyle Schwarber’s 2017 wrc+ will be: ___ 2:17 Dan Szymborski: a measure of a player’s wrc relative to league average when considering park effects. 2:17 Daniel: What part of your current baseball knowledge do you wish you could improve the most? 2:17 Dan Szymborski: Mechanics 2:18 Ryan: Could the Reds be a reasonable landing spot for Blanton? Seems like he could help them short term, and long-term via hoping he has a good first half & then flipping him at the deadline 2:18 Dan Szymborski: Nah, Reds should be sorting things out and Blanton can offer value to a contender right now. 2:18 Dan Szymborski: And again, people vastly overrate the odds a team out of contention flips a player. 2:19 Dan Szymborski: There were 26 players signed to one-year MLB free agency deals on below-.500 teams last year. 3 got flipped for a prospect that was in the new team’s MLB top 25. 2:19 Dan Szymborski: Year before, 0 of 18. 2:20 Tim: ZiPS sees regression across the board for the Reds offense – which I (somewhat) understand. However, what I don’t get is why it keeps telling Joey Votto to become a mortal when he’s clearly not one. 2:20 Dan Szymborski: When I think of crazy huge dropoffs, the drop from Votto’s 5.0 fWAR in 2016 to 4.6 WAR projection is absolutely the first one that comes to mind. 2:21 Connor: With Reyes out for the year, what are the chances that Luke Weaver makes the Opening Day rotation. I like him as a dark horse ROY candidate 2:21 Dan Szymborski: They’ve improved considerably. ZiPS likes Weaver too, and put him way farther up the prospect list than most. 2:21 Matt: Who is a player that you and ZiPs disagree on this year? 2:21 Dan Szymborski: Gotta wait for the piece ont hat one! 2:21 Cam: How many articles are you “sitting on” at any given time, awaiting tinkering or building up the nerve to hit post? 2:21 Dan Szymborski: In that sense, zero. 2:21 Dan Szymborski: There are always some set pieces that I do every year. 2:22 Dan Szymborski: But there’s nothing I tinker with or build up the nerve to post. 2:22 Dan Szymborski: I think of a piece, sit down, write the piece once through, and file. 2:22 Dan Szymborski: It’s just the way I work. 2:22 JSDee: over/under of 81.5 wins for a team full of 90% outcome padres? 2:23 Dan Szymborski: Well, a whole team of 90% would be way about 90th percentile for the team, so easily above 81.5 2:23 kyle reed: How many more good years does Adam Jones have left? 2:24 Dan Szymborski: Let’s call 3 WAR good. ZiPS doesn’t project him to be 50/50 to hit 3 WAR again, but given uncertainty, he’ll probably still do it once more. 2:24 v2micca: Do the Cardinals still consider Alex Reyes off limits in a trade? 2:24 Dan Szymborski: Nobody’s *really* off limits. That’s a public stance, not a trade strategy 2:24 Erik: How far out do we have to go before budget becomes far more significant than current roster/minor league system in predicting a team’s win total? I.e. if we’re picking world series favorites 5 years down the row, should we automatically just pick the Dodgers and Yankees? What about 10 years? 2:24 Dan Szymborski: Haven’t really thought of that. 2:24 baby bull : how would you distribute playing time in NYM Outfield? 2:24 Dan Szymborski: Yikes 2:26 Dan Szymborski: I’m not even positive which of Cespedes/Conforto/Granderson I least hate in centerfield. 2:28 Dan Szymborski: I might even start Lagares if the opposing team has more flyball hitters and one of the more flybally starters is on the mound 2:28 Connor: 2017 World Series matchup? 2:29 Dan Szymborski: It will be between the winners of the American League and National League Championship Series. 2:29 baby bull : how is Bryce Harpers career in WWE2k17 going? 2:29 Dan Szymborski: He hasn’t done much in my universe, but Wil Myers has the Intercontinental title. 2:30 Merv Throneberry: Carter Capps – closing for the Pads by June? 2:30 Dan Szymborski: If he’s up to midseason pogo stick form, sure. 2:30 Dan Szymborski: He has the most trade value if he becomes a closer. 2:30 baby bull : any faith in Michael Wacha this year? 2:30 Dan Szymborski: Mixed feelings. 2:31 baby bull : What will Miguel Sano’s career low k% be? 2:31 Dan Szymborski: His 0% in 2014. 2:31 Brad: Would you have preferred to see the Rays sign Chris Carter or Logan Morrison? 2:31 Dan Szymborski: Carter 2:31 Pomeranz: Boom or Bust on dahl? 2:31 Dan Szymborski: Boom 2:31 Coppy: Why am I starting giving ABs to Adonis Garcia over young guys like Rio Ruiz, Jace Peterson, or even Colin Walsh? Couldn’t Adonis bring back a low level prospect? 2:31 Dan Szymborski: The Braves are determined to have the oldest team in MLB 2:31 Connor: Who takes last place in the AL East this year? 2:31 Dan Szymborski: I think it could be the Yankees. 2:31 baby bull : do you play minecraft? real world or creative? 2:31 Dan Szymborski: Not really 2:31 Dan: Dammit szym, you didn’t run concurrently with Cameron. I want Dan vs. Dave ads. 2:32 The Decadent Moose: I show up at 1:15 and I’m late? What the shit, Dan? Just how much better is Betts than Rendon, injuries aside? Both are excellent defenders, so I can’t imagine it’s waaaay better. 2:32 Dan Szymborski: Get a real time zone. 2:32 Erik: Is it possible for a rebuilding team to add too many unimpressive but not terrible veterans? If so, how close did the Phillies come to that line this year? 2:32 Dan Szymborski: Yes. Phillies didn’t go crazy like the Braves. 2:32 Randy Savage: Having trouble deciding between keeping David Price or Jacob DeGrom. ZiPS has them pretty much the same on a rate basis, but with Price for more innings, but Price is 3 years older. Which way do you lean? 2:32 Dan Szymborski: Grommash in fantasy, Price in real life. 2:32 Don: is Mookie Betts a better player than Machado? 2:32 Dan Szymborski: No 2:33 Dan: Have you done any projections beyond the ones on the team pages or recent signees? If so, who are some of the best projected of them. 2:33 Dan Szymborski: Yes, but you’ll ahve to wait and see. 2:33 powder: All I can think about now is Guile whispering “-cautious boom-” as he lets a small disk of energy fly at something like a bothersome insect in his living room. 2:33 Markie Post: When do the cumulative zips 2017 pre season projections get published on FanGraphs? 2:33 Dan Szymborski: Soon. Would’ve been up already but I was too sick. 2:33 Nick: What do you see out of Vogelbach this year in Seattle? 2:33 Dan Szymborski: Meh-plus 2:33 Jonah: If you had to place bets on the 2017 AL/NL Cy Young winners, who would you take? 2:33 Dan Szymborski: Sale, Kershaw 2:33 JSDee: college baseball needs to be fixed. fix it for us Dan 2:33 Dan Szymborski: Can’t someone ELSE do it? 2:33 v2micca: Would the Reds consider trading Votto this year? He still offers a decent amount of surplus value and the Reds farm system desperately needs a shot in the arm. 2:33 Dan Szymborski: No 2:33 Hamburger helper: At what point does Milwaukee just give Ryan Braun away as a salary dump? 2:34 Dan Szymborski: I think they’re being picky, they could trade him for something if they wanted to 2:34 Guest: Calvin Cueless invented Calculus. Leibniz beat him up outside his house. Newton witnessed it and blackmailed Leibniz to include his name. #NotAlternativeFactsButTheTruth 2:34 Jose Q: It’s reeeaalllly starting to look like I’m gonna be pitching on OD for the WSox…..can’t anyone get me outta here? 2:34 Dan Szymborski: It’ll happen 2:34 Connor: Does the methodology of the projections evolve as the game of baseball evolves? 2:34 Dan Szymborski: Why not? 2:34 Matt: Dan! Sorry I’m late. This new time takes some getting used to. Oh, by the way – I missed you. 2:34 Dan Szymborski: I was here Thursday? 2:35 Connor: Chances Kyle Barraclough becomes the closer of Miami 2:36 Dan Szymborski: This year? Fairly long. Even if something bad happens to Ramos, team probably uses Ziegler next. 2:36 CamdenWarehouse: Can Melvin Upton still be good at baseball or is meh the best possible outcome? 2:36 Dan Szymborski: Just meh now. 2:36 CamdenWarehouse: See it could have been Hang Out with Dan and eat tasty ribs 2:36 Jesse: Can you tell who sends a question aside from the name we put into the chat box? So if we just kept switching names, you would have no idea? 2:36 Dan Szymborski: I’d have no idea unless I ban your IP 2:37 Dan Szymborski: I try not to look at names, lest I get biased in favor of names I recognize. 2:37 Thugilicous: If Michael Pineda has a good first half(actually meets the projections lets say) can he bring back 2 50fv prospects at the deadline? 2:37 Dan Szymborski: That’s a bit aggressive 2:37 CamdenWarehouse: Which pitchers do you go out of your way to watch when they start? 2:37 Dan Szymborski: Syndergaard, Kershaw 2:37 Dan: Wouldn’t it be cool if MLB renamed the ALCS and NLCS the AL Pennant and the NL Pennant? 2:37 Craig in CHI: Which team’s WS chances jump the most, wit an acquisition of Quintana? (assuming they give non-ready MLB talent) 2:37 Dan Szymborski: It would be a wild card team that gets a real chance at the division, I think 2:38 Dan Szymborski: Maybe the Mariners? Tigers? 2:38 Sofa King Cheesey: New to FanGraphs but longtime fantasy player. How do I use FanGraphs to help me beat the assholes I play against? Where do I start? 2:38 Dan Szymborski: If I tell you, then FanGraphs is winning your fantasy league, not you 2:38 Pomeranz: Which NYM SP you have most confidence in to have a great year? 2:38 Dan Szymborski: Syndergaard. 2:38 bl27: Kevin Kiermaier is a sleeper this season ? Better option than Carlos Gomez and Jacoby Ellsbury ? 2:38 Dan Szymborski: Real life mor ethan fantasy 2:38 Larry: Which shelby miller this year? Pre-demotion dumpster fire, or post demotion serviceable garbage can? 2:38 Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be OK 2:39 Craig in CHI: Eaton in CF is a bad move. He is a way better RF. 2:39 Dan Szymborski: There’s not realistically a 30 run, relative to average, difference between Eaton in RF and Eaton in CF. You shouldn’t even care about one year defensive numbers. 2:39 Brad: I’m in a computer science class right now learning about MATLAB but I’m not paying attention to the professor. Should I be? 2:39 Dan Szymborski: YELL MY LAST NAME 2:39 MB : Speaking of Sano – do you believe some of his struggles can be attributed to him being “too selective” at the plate ? 2:39 Dan Szymborski: No, I don’t think he’s in the Hermida Zone. 2:39 Joe: Who gets into the hall of fame first, Barry Bonds or Terrell Owens? 2:39 Dan Szymborski: TO 2:39 Matt: Yanks in last in the ALE?! But what if they get Markakis at the deadline? 2:39 RaisedRoyal: Who do you see as the key(s) for the Royals to get back into the post season this year? 2:40 Dan Szymborski: Having a better roster than it looks like they have 2:40 Craig in CHI: is EVERYBODY sick over there? Don’t you guys wash your hands?!?!? LOL!!! 2:40 Dan Szymborski: I always wash my hands! 2:40 Jesse: What are the odds that, if Clayton Kershaw doesn’t hit the DL this year, he has the highest WAR among pitchers? 2:40 Dan Szymborski: 50%? 2:40 Brad: Do you think you could beat up Cistulli? 2:40 Dan Szymborski: Sure 2:40 CamdenWarehouse: But we don’t know to look for you on Thursday 2:41 Dan Szymborski: I said so on twitter! 2:41 dominik: Epstein was pretty open in his strategy to accumulate bats with good on base skills in the rebuild and worry about the pitching later. The rationale was that pitching prospects get injured more often. Sounds pretty clever so why are not all the rebuilding teams copy that approach and still collect arms (atlanta for example)? 2:41 Dan Szymborski: Copying approaches is the best way to build a contender years ago 2:41 Special Agent Jack Bauer: More valuable fantasy SS in 2017 – Elvis Andrus, Dansby Swanson, or Aledmis Diaz? 2:41 Dan Szymborski: Swanson 2:42 Jesse: Teams are often averse trading within the division, but for a rebuilding club, wouldn’t it make MORE sense to trade present for future value within the division, and to a lesser extent within the league, thus weakening the future for your playoff competitors? 2:42 Dan Szymborski: Only in certain instances 2:42 Matt: Do you ever fantasize about baseball? I have this one recurring fantasy where me and 11 of my friends are GMs, and we put together a team of existing players that we field against each other. 2:42 Dan Szymborski: I mostly have dumb dreams involving baseball 2:42 Dan Szymborski: Hold on 2:43 Dan Szymborski: Me and a bunch of other saber guys kidnapped a whole bunch of pitchers for some reason. My job was to kidnap Jose Rosado, which I did, and he was very annoyed that he had been kidnapped. He started yelling, so I hid him by turning him into a cob of corn and covering him with aluminum foil. But I covered his mouth and it accidentally killed him, so I took Eno Sarris’s helicopter (!) and flew over the Atlantic and dropped the corncob into the Sargasso Sea. The other kidnappings appear to have gone smoother, but nobody actually noticed the pitchers were gone except one angry Reds fan who didn’t understand why the team only had 6 pitchers on the 25-man roster. 2:43 Dan Szymborski: I was drinking tea with Rita Moreno and Jerome Williams threw a no-hitter and the Phillies gave him a contract extension and I made fun of it on Twitter until someone told me that Williams had leprosy and the extension was so he could get treated on an island and I felt really bad and then the Phillies traded Cole Hamels to the Dodgers for Scott van Slyke because Amaro remembered that Andy Van Slyke was really good. 2:43 Dan Szymborski: In my dream, everybody at various times participated in a group dream in which everybody is in World War II and you keep having that dream nightly until you survive 5 nights in a row without getting killed in a dream. Except famous people didn’t get that dream randomly, they had to participate in 5 days of the dream no matter what and were in positions of command in the dream. I survived 4 nights, but on the 5th I got in a plane crash with a bunch of othe rpeople though for some reason we were in a flyign school bus that came from Switzerland, which was a city in the clouds in my dream. Then I dreamed that Kyle Schwarber was pitching in the majors (my dream confused him with Kyle Hendricks) and had an ERA around 6 but like 3 home runs in 12 at-bats and was writing a piece about how replacement level was much higher for a pitcher that can hit like that. 2:44 Dan Szymborski: These are different dreams 2:44 Don: Babylon 5 or Star Trek? 2:44 Dan Szymborski: Babylon 5 unless we’re talking whole Star Trek series 2:44 Zack: What are the odds that Kershaw will need TJ surgery this year? 2:44 Dan Szymborski: NOT FUNNY 2:44 Travis Sawchik: MICK NARKAKIS 2:44 dominik: Why are hr and the number of players with 20-30 hr up but the number of players with 45 + hr has not really changed? 2:44 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think you can draw conslusions 2:44 Pomeranz: Patrick Corbin AZ closer – discuss.. 2:45 Dan Szymborski: Like what aspect? 2:46 Dan Szymborski: I don’t like moving any pitcher to relief unless I’m like 95% sure they can’t be starters 2:46 976: Would you rather have a rotation full of better-than-average (like 90 FIP-) pitchers and 8 average pitchers in the bullpen or a rotation of 5 average starters with 8 better-than-average (70 FIP-) relievers? 2:46 Dan Szymborski: The former 2:46 Martin: What’s the next era in player projections going to look like? 2:47 Dan Szymborski: You’ll see projections, but they will be for the new players that are playing at that time. 2:47 RaisedRoyal: Two trips (against your projections) to the world series still stings huh? 2:47 Dan Szymborski: Have you actually looked at teh current roster? 2:47 Dan Szymborski: It’s a worse roster overall than last year and I don’t remember their ring last year 2:48 Al Czervik: Do the Tigers win more than 3 games against Cleveland this year? Please? 2:48 Dan Szymborski: Probably 2:48 Jesse: What are the variables that would determine whether a rebuilding team should or shouldn’t prefer trading intradivision? 2:48 Dan Szymborski: How much the player traded will negatively affect themselves. 2:48 Rocky: Can Jon Gray get to 200 IP this year, and if so, how effective would he be? 2:49 Dan Szymborski: 200 is tricky in a hitters park but he’ll be good I think 2:49 Matt: Would you say the ERA era is done? What are the odds we can define a “specific period of time” as a fip. Then we’d be in the FIP fip. 2:49 Dan Szymborski: Probably long, you’d need fip to be used for moer than baseball 2:50 Matt: Likelihood that Mick Narkakis is N\you-know-who’s doppleganger who works for the DEA? 2:50 Craig in CHI: Rodon or Paxton, this year? 2:50 Dan Szymborski: Rodon 2:50 Sofa King Cheesey: I’m still reading this chat holding out hope that you’ll provide newbs like me an idea on how to utilize the bevy of info that is FG. Is that going to happen? 2:51 Dan Szymborski: That’s like a class, not a specific question I can answer in 30 seconds. 2:51 Dan Szymborski: It’s like asking “Dan, how do I invest?” or “Dan, can you teach me the rules of chess right now?” 2:51 80 grade question asker: does bautista bounce back this year? or is he too far over the hill? 2:51 Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll bounce back some, but he’s definitely in his decline and won’t put up a vintage JoeY Bats year 2:51 Craig in CHI: “Blade Runner” is actually Harrison Ford’s best movie. 2:52 Duhbear: Chances that Eddie Gamboa becomes a productive big league player? He was second in the International League in FIP among players throwing at least 90 innings. With an abnormal skill set (the knuckler), that sounds like a potentially mid-rotation arm. 2:52 Dan Szymborski: Always bet on the knuckler! 2:52 dominik: What does that mean? Shouldnt the top guys also hit more hr ig thr league wide power is up? Why are there not more 50 hr guys again? 2:52 Dan Szymborski: But there were always only a few 50 hr guys, you’re counting too much on the distribution of HR talent being exactly the same. 2:53 Dan Szymborski: If HR rate stays in 2016 for awhile, you’ll see 50 hr guys 2:53 Rhendricks: Any chance Rosenthal takes the 5th spot in St. Louis now? 2:54 Dan Szymborski: It may happen – the Cards were hinting at looking at him as a starter again long before Ryees injury 2:54 Dan: What prospects do you personally like that didn’t make any of the top 100s (or just like one outlier one.) Presumably ones you think have big ceilings. 2:54 Dan Szymborski: Kaprielian 2:54 Craig in CHI: Votto for McCutch and Bell? 2:54 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think that twould happen 2:54 CamdenWarehouse: Carson likes college baseball. Let him “fix” it. 2:55 MB: Hi, Dan. Would you be so kind as to answer a fantasy baseball related question? Curious if you would do Strasburg and Chris Davis for Goldshmidt in a keep forever points league? Thank you! 2:55 Dan Szymborski: No. 2:55 Michael: Who is Detroit’s best CF option? 2:55 Dan Szymborski: Get in a time machine and don’t leave the team with no credible CF option 2:55 Dan Szymborski: Tigers had one of the absolute laziest offseasons I can remember 2:57 Fohn Jarrell: If Sox are eliminated in first round or miss playoffs entirely, is John Farrell out? 2:57 Dan Szymborski: Depends how embarassing that path turns out being. 2:58 Dan Szymborski: Any manager who isn’t the manager the current GM brought in is a good scapegoat target. 2:58 976: What unpopular strategy would you employ on your own baseball team? 2:59 Dan Szymborski: I’d try practically any failed position player prospect with a good arm at catcher 2:59 Dan Szymborski: And I’d experiment more heavily in springs at trying players at tougher defensive positions 2:59 Matt: Dan – can you teach me the rules of chess right now? 2:59 Dan Szymborski: No 2:59 976: How to use FanGraphs 101: Attempt to load page. Wait for “Long Script” error. Force close browser. Head to your phone and try it there. 2:59 baby bull : Harrison Ford is a shitty pilot, that is all 2:59 CamdenWarehouse: Sofa – start by just reading it all, and the stories they link to. The picture will form and then you’ll be able to determine how to use it. 2:59 Slew: Should the Indians push all in and try and peel a CF away from someone? 3:00 Dan Szymborski: I think they’re fine right now. Better to save prospects for a need that arises 3:00 Brad: Which baseball player could best take on Mayweather in the ring? 3:00 Dan Szymborski: None 3:00 Matt: What are your thoughts on realigning the MLB to two divisions, based on country? 3:00 Dan Szymborski: A 29 team US division and a 1 team Canadian division seems awkward 3:00 CamdenWarehouse: I see Eddie Gamboa and read Eddie Gaedel. Trying to imagine him as a knuckleballer. 3:00 JSDee: do you love your cats more than Eno loves sandwiches? 3:01 Dan Szymborski: I think so – I pay to feed my cats and not eat them and Eno eats his sandwiches 3:01 coolpapa: Why does everyone spell Ohtani, Otani? Look at the back of his Jersey! Also is Shohei Ohtani translated to English mean Showme the Money? 3:01 Dan Szymborski: Translations are weird. 3:01 Dan Szymborski: I follow Wikipedia drama due to entertainment value 3:02 Dan Szymborski: Lviv vs. Lvov and Ivory Coast vs. Côte d’Ivoire are two of the most drama-filled situations ever. 3:03 Dan Szymborski: There was also this guy who got banned who used to cause endless drama in Japanese translations 3:03 Dan Szymborski: based on l vs. r in translated managa 3:04 Dan Szymborski: manga 3:04 Jesse: Now that Dave Stewart has been exiled from Arizona, who has the least saber-friendly front office, or do those not exist anymore? 3:04 Dan Szymborski: Miami? 3:04 Dan Szymborski: Someone’s always going to be least 3:04 Craig in CHI: odds Shelby Miller gets remembered for his career, instead of being on 1 end of a lop-sided deal? 3:04 Dan Szymborski: Swanson would have to be a bust 3:05 Hoff: What kind of suspension is Kang looking at? Similar to Aroldis last year? 3:05 Dan Szymborski: I’m honestly not sure 3:05 Sofa King Cheesey: Over/Under on the grade Brad will get in that MATLAB class he’s totally not paying attention in. 78%? 3:05 Dan Szymborski: Need more info 3:05 Hannah Hochevar: Asked this of your D&D partner, but curious for your take. I know they’re competing with 29 other clubs, but it feels odd given this market and their need that the O’s didn’t pick up a 5th starter of some kind. (And now Tillman is out for a stretch.) My paranoid side is feeling like the O’s are going to tank in order to force a rebuild, but that’s not real, right? Do I need to get a tinfoil hat? 3:05 Dan Szymborski: They’re not going to tank, I don’t think 3:05 Dan Szymborski: The O’s, like the Royals, had a tough road this offseason in that the stuff they needed wasn’t much avaiable 3:05 britishcub: for the lightning round: am i being unfair to FFXV by thinking it’s the worst one i’ve played? 3:05 Dan Szymborski: I haven’t played yet! 3:06 Chaps: Who would oppose taking a break in the middle of the season to play the WBC (as some people have suggested; similar to what the NHL does for the olympics): the owners or the players union? 3:06 Dan Szymborski: ME 3:06 Craig in CHI: Rickey had 172 SBA, in 1972…. What have you done today?!?!? 😉 3:06 Dan Szymborski: I ate some lamb merguez for breakfast 3:06 976: Lviv is just incorrect. 59 is actually LIX 3:06 Al Czervik: Is Jacoby Jones playing for the Tigers in September this year? 3:06 Dan Szymborski: That’s JaCoby, lepton. 3:07 Dan Szymborski: OK, let’s get the Lightning Round going. 3:07 Dan Szymborski: The premise is simple. In the Lightning Round, I can only answer all those stupid off-topic questions you were thinking of all this time. And I have to answer them, with the usual exceptions (work-related, very personal, politics at my discretion) even if I have absolutely no relevant knowledge of the subject. 3:08 Dan Szymborski: And this continues until I catch up or get bored. 3:08 Dan Szymborski: AND GO 3:08 Husky Harris: Randy Orton has been trolling the Wyatt family all this time, right? It was all part of his plan to out-crazy the crazy people, break up the family, and win the belt from Bray at Wrestlemania, right? 3:08 Dan Szymborski: Seems reasonable 3:08 Uther: What do you think about the Hearthstone announced nerfs? 3:08 Dan Szymborski: I would have liked to see a Jade Idol nerf too, but they nerfed the right cards, otherwise. 3:08 Jesse: What’s your favorite movie in each category: Comedy, Action, Horror? 3:08 Dan Szymborski: This changes based on mood. 3:08 Dan Szymborski: I’ll say Princess Bride for both of the first two RIGHT NOW. 3:09 Dan Szymborski: I dont’ really care for Horror. 3:09 Dan Szymborski: Maybe Think Big in the 80s. It certainly horrified me. 3:09 Dan Szymborski: Please note that I can no longer answer on-topic questions because they’re now off-topic! 3:09 976: Why haven’t you read Rothfuss yet? 3:09 Dan Szymborski: I have a long to-do list 3:10 976: Have you played the Professor Layton puzzle series? It was made for 3DS, but I’m sure you can find it elsewhere. 3:10 Dan Szymborski: I have not. 3:10 Jesse: Favorite pizza topping? 3:10 Dan Szymborski: Sausage 3:10 britishcub: you going to play the new torment game? i can’t wait for my kickstarter money to pay off 3:10 Dan Szymborski: I may, though I’m waiting. 3:10 976: The OA was a steaming pile. True or False? 3:10 Dan Szymborski: Haven’t seen it yet 3:11 Dan: Favorite Simpsons episode? 3:11 Dan Szymborski: Bart’s Comet 3:11 Rob: Is a hotdog a sandwich? It’s meat with bread on either side… 3:11 Dan Szymborski: NO 3:11 Jesse: Worst Best Picture winner 3:11 Dan Szymborski: Dances with Wolves 3:11 976: I’m getting back into OverWatch after three months off, is Lucio still an instalock? And who should I be? 3:11 Dan Szymborski: Lucio is still a staple. 3:11 Dan Szymborski: It’s Mercy that’s been pushed out of the meta by Ana 3:12 Biggie Smalls: What is the meaning of life? 3:12 Dan Szymborski: It’s a square breakfast cereal that Mikely likes. 3:12 Craig in CHI: Will we (in our lifetimes) ever see a better offensive player than Barry Bonds? 3:12 Dan Szymborski: No 3:12 976: The LWNN is the most dysfunctional sim league you currently monitor, true or false? 3:12 Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say that, though I like trolling that one guy 3:12 Rob: Does Diet Dr. Pepper really taste just like regular Dr. Pepper? 3:12 Dan Szymborski: It does not. 3:12 CamdenWarehouse: Hereford > Towson 3:12 Dan Szymborski: GTFO 3:12 Jesse: Favorite non-baseball playing athlete 3:12 Dan Szymborski: Barry Sanders 3:13 CamdenWarehouse: Does Tremors count as a horror movie? 3:13 Dan Szymborski: No 3:13 Bleh: Who can eat more tacos: guy fieri or donald trump? 3:13 Dan Szymborski: Fieri. Taco bowls slow you down 3:13 Hoff: You gonna watch Prince’s eating…urrr, I mean…cooking show? 3:13 Dan Szymborski: Maybe. Is it vegetarian? 3:13 Rob: Why am I on this silly chat instead of working right now? 3:13 Dan Szymborski: Depression-related lack of ambition 3:13 Chaps: Favorite Pokemon? 3:13 Dan Szymborski: Charizard 3:14 Craig in CHI: I just canceled Netflix. 3:14 Dan Szymborski: Not a question 3:14 Sofa King Cheesey: Is the Lightning Round premise really any different from how you handle the rest of the chat, or is it your roto-way of announcing the shot clock is about to expire? I mean… seems identical to me. 3:14 Dan Szymborski: I do way more 3:14 The Decadent Moose: Do you use Eno’s tweets about sandwiches to update your spreadsheet or does he use your spreadsheet to make sandwiches? 3:14 Dan Szymborski: My sandwich spreadsheet is for my needs. 3:14 JSDee: every pizza topping would be better as a calzone filler. 3:14 Jesse: Chomsky or Sartre? 3:14 Dan Szymborski: Sartre 3:14 Dan: Who at Fangraphs keeps forgetting to put toner in the printer? (Are work-politics questions off limits?) 3:14 Dan Szymborski: I don’t know the answer 3:15 George Herman Thoreau: Best baseball fiction book? 3:15 Dan Szymborski: Iowa Baseball Confederacy 3:15 YKnotDisco?!: Biggie or Tupac? 3:15 Dan Szymborski: Tupac 3:15 Ben: Does the LP become a legitimate contender by the 2024 election? 3:15 Dan Szymborski: Sorry, no 3:15 britishcub: You ever been to england? 3:15 Dan Szymborski: Yes 3:15 Jesse: If you sliced up a hotdog and put it between two slices of white bread, is it a sandwich or an abomination? 3:15 Dan Szymborski: Abominable Sandwich 3:15 Hank: Favorite scotch? 3:15 Dan Szymborski: Not a scotch drinker, prefer how bourbon tastes 3:15 CamdenWarehouse: Is Nick Markakis a sandwich? 3:15 Dan Szymborski: Only if served in such a manner. 3:15 Chaps: re: Worst Best Picture winner – False: Shakespeare in Love beat out Saving Private Ryan 3:15 Hoff: Why did you take Brady’s jersey? 3:15 Dan Szymborski: Made me feel like a big shot. 3:15 Jesse: country you most want to travel to 3:16 Dan Szymborski: New Zealand 3:16 Dick Trickle: Best Dr. Pepper knock-off? 3:16 Dan Szymborski: Dr. Perfect 3:16 Jesse: Any allergies? 3:16 Dan Szymborski: Mushrooms, lobster 3:16 Chaps: If a man has a mustache when he impregnates a woman, will their baby be born with a mustache? 3:16 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so, though I only have a slight knowledge of making babies 3:17 Craig in CHI: Favorite Novel written before WWI? 3:17 Dan Szymborski: brothers kamarazov 3:17 Craig in CHI: Do you read “The Economist”? 3:17 Dan Szymborski: At times 3:17 kj: trump is a big league taco eater 3:17 Dan Szymborski: There are no taco eating leagues 3:17 Craig in CHI: Best poker player, in the fantasy baseball realm? 3:18 Dan Szymborski: Gleeman’s pretty good 3:18 Eric: I think the guy who canceled Netflix wants you to question him on why he canceled Netflix. So it’s a reverse question? 3:18 Dan Szymborski: Maybe 3:18 Craig in CHI: A hotdog already is a sandwich? 🙂 3:18 Dan Szymborski: No 3:18 Jesse: I really like Shakespeare in Love! 3:18 Dan Szymborski: Not a question 3:18 Jesse: But yeah, Saving Private Ryan is better 3:18 Dan Szymborski: the Q was for worst best picture, not biggest snub 3:18 Big Cheese: Disagree on the best baseball fiction book its clearly The Art of Fielding 3:18 Dan Szymborski: The best baseball fiction book would be Matt Kemp Teaches Defense 3:18 Ben: Coffee or no coffee? 3:18 Dan Szymborski: I rarely drink coffee. I drink more tea than coffee 3:18 PF: Blue Jays left field solution is ____ 3:19 Dan Szymborski: Oops 3:19 Dan Szymborski: Errr 3:19 Dan Szymborski: 90% water, 10% potassium permanganate. 3:19 YKnotDisco?!: What # would be on your baseball jersey? 3:19 Dan Szymborski: I was number 33 because it could be WW, EE, or MM depending on the angle 3:19 Ryan: favorite bourbon 3:19 Dan Szymborski: eagle rare 10 3:19 Randy Savage: You bring the thunder, I’ll bring the salami 3:19 Dan Szymborski: OK? 3:20 Ben: Favorite reliable news source? 3:20 Dan Szymborski: C-span 3:20 YKnotDisco?!: C.Columbus or L.Erikson? 3:20 Dan Szymborski: Go with the vikings 3:20 CamdenWarehouse: Do you have more interaction with Miller now that he’s at ESPN? 3:20 Dan Szymborski: We haven’t done much toegehter yet 3:20 Sofa King Cheesey: Should there be more than one person on this chat who references cheese in their name? 3:20 Dan Szymborski: Why not 3:20 Jesse: Favorite member of the Fellowship 3:20 Dan Szymborski: Boromir 3:20 YKnotDisco?!: paper or plastic? 3:20 Dan Szymborski: plastic since I like the bags for cat litter 3:20 Jesse: Well, do you like Shakespeare in Love? 3:20 Dan Szymborski: Not amazingly 3:20 Rickey O’Sunnyvale: Days left of the Trump presidency? 3:21 Dan Szymborski: He’ll last to election 3:21 Craig in CHI: GS wins the title, right? 3:21 Dan Szymborski: Yes 3:21 Dan Szymborski: CAUGHT UP 3:21 Dan Szymborski: ITS OVER 3:21 Dan Szymborski: GO HOME 3:21 Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone! You can read my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.