Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 2/15/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday everyone.

Dave Cameron: I’m still battling a fever/cold/thing but will hopefully be able to do the full hour today.

Goose: Which New York team has the better SS in 2 years?

Dave Cameron: Depends on if the Yankees sign Machado.

Dave Cameron: (That’s only partially a joke.)

Dave Cameron: Since you probably meant whether I prefer Rosario or Torres, I’ll lean towards Torres.

Rhendricks: Since Reyes has options remaining, can they not option him and put him on the Minor League DL so that he doesn’t lose a year of service time?

Dave Cameron: You can’t option an injured player.

Dave Cameron: If you’re injured in the big leagues, you get big league treatment.

Brad: Projections seem to be down on Michael Fulmer which I can see why, but he does have 3 good pitches, and seems like he learned to pitch instead of throw last year. What do you think about him? Thanks.

Dave Cameron: Steamer projects him as a +3 WAR pitcher next year. Not sure why you’d think that’s being down on him.

Dave Cameron: I think Fulmer looks like a solid above-average starter, but probably doesn’t miss enough bats to be an ace.

Eric: If Reyes needs TJ, when do you think he can make it back? June 2018 seem about right?

Dave Cameron: It was announced this morning that he is having TJ.

Dave Cameron: So, yeah, middle of next year.

Dave Cameron: It’s now an interesting question whether the somewhat-win-now Cardinals should consider including Reyes in a trade. He was mostly off limits before the injury, but if the White Sox were willing to take Reyes back as the main chip in a Quintana deal now, it’d be an interesting thought.

bl27: are you a fan of Jose Peraza ? Expectations for this season ?

Dave Cameron: He looks like a useful league average player.

Dave Cameron: Does that make me a fan? I don’t know.

Pat: What needs to happen for the Yankees to make the Wild Card?

Dave Cameron: Michael Pineda to figure out how to strand runners, Chad Green pitching as well as the projections think he might, and everyone stays healthy.

Erik: True or false: the single most significant thing that happens in spring training is injuries.

Dave Cameron: True

John: Looking at the White Sox current roster construction, I find it hard to believe this is the iteration that will be present on opening day. What is the realistic chance that one of Quintana, Frazier, and Melky are Moved? Quintana seems to have the most robust market, but the lower return required for the other two seems to lead to a trade of a bat first.

Dave Cameron: Hahn said outright that if he had his druthers, he’d make four more moves. That seems pretty clear to be Quintana, Robertson, Frazier, and Cabrera, so at this point, they’re just waiting for buyers to meet their price, but clearly want to move them all. I’d think Frazier is the most likely to get moved during ST, once someone’s 3B blows out a knee.

Ryan: Whatever team Wieters ends up with at this point – does it become a problem that he starts his spring late, considering he has to learn a whole new pitching staff?

Dave Cameron: I think there’s a chance that whoever signs him asks him to not catch.

Dave Cameron: There are still enough teams out there that could use a 1B that a conversion shouldn’t be totally ruled out.

q: If you’re the DBacks GM and a team calls about Goldy or Pollock, do you hang up immediately or do you try maximizing on their value?

Dave Cameron: Hazen said the other day that they wanted to see what this team could do, but they’ll evaluate midseason. So it’s probably a “call back in 3 months” kind of thing.

Zonk: Joe Blanton is not amazing. But Joe Blanton is useful! Why is he unemployed, did his agent overplay his hand and ask for too much $ early in the offseason? Or is there something we can’t see that has FO’s down on him?

Zonk: Is Doug Fister waiting out an injury or something at this point in order to get a major-league deal? Because he should be in somebody’s camp, right?

Dave Cameron: Publishing these two together, because I think there’s probably something to the idea that guys like this could do better if they wait for teams to have needs than if they rush it.

Dave Cameron: STL probably isn’t going to sign Fister, but Reyes isn’t going to be the only guy to go down, and in a week or two, there could be more demand for Fister’s services.

Dave Cameron: Blanton might be hoping for the same.

Brett: If Sonny Gray is “Sonny Gray” in the WBC, who will give the A’s what they want for him before Opening Day? What would that package look like?

Dave Cameron: Don’t think anyone is trading for a guy based on WBC performance.

Dave Cameron: Gray is going to have to pitch well during the regular season against MLB hitters to get his value back.

Mariners101: Hey Dave! I’m a huge fan of the top 10 worst moves columns… Do you know when that’s coming out? And also….

Dave Cameron: Friday! Best moves tomorrow. Assuming I can stay healthy enough to write it today, anyway.

CarrotJuice: Seeing as so many relief pitchers have ended up being pretty cheap, do you think the Cubs regret the Wade Davis trade a bit?

Dave Cameron: No. They had no role for Soler.

Harold : Does Carson plan to have a podcast guest besides Travis Sawchick anytime soon at travissawchick.com?

Dave Cameron: I recorded a podcast with him yesterday.

Dave Cameron: The one we did last week got canned because the audio quality was apparently terrible.

Rb: What would a Roberson trade to nationals look like? What type of prospects coming back?

Dave Cameron: Salary dump.

Q-Ball: Dave, are you going to do the Position Power Rankings this year? If so, when can we expect to start seeing them? They are great, BTW!

Dave Cameron: Those run the last two weeks of spring training, so we have as accurate a read on every team’s depth charts as we can get.

Mack: I know it’s not the STL way to panic & trade, but would a McCarthy or Brock Stewart be feasible for the Cards in a trade, or would LA say no way, take a hike?

Dave Cameron: Don’t think STL has much to benefit from that kind of deal. With Wacha and Weaver around, they have back-end options. If they’re going to make a deal, it should be for a frontline guy.

Hannah Hochevar: I know you’re down on Wood and they’re competing with 29 other clubs, but it feels odd given this market and their need that the O’s didn’t pick up a 5th starter of some kind. (And now Tillman is out for a stretch.) My paranoid side is feeling like the O’s are going to tank in order to force a rebuild, but that’s not real, right? Do I need to get a tinfoil hat?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be surprised if BAL made a few moves this spring.

Dave Cameron: That roster doesn’t feel done.

Jesse: When will Zips projections be up? If you don’t have an exact date, a rough time frame would do. Later this week? Before March?

Dave Cameron: They usually go up around the end of February.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Give me a conceivable way the Cubs could miss the playoffs.

Dave Cameron: Arrieta’s arm goes boom, Bryant’s strikeouts come back in a big way, Schwarber proves he can’t play LF and so they don’t have anywhere to put him…

Dave Cameron: But, yeah, mostly health stuff.

Dave Cameron: They don’t have the pitching depth to withstand a bunch of their SPs going down.

Q-Ball: What team that thinks they are a contender will have the worst season, in your opinion? BAL, DET, or TEX? Or someone else?

Dave Cameron: BAL

mtsw: Better genre of “early days of spring training” story: previously fat guy shows up looking thinner, or previously athletic guy shows up looking fat?

Dave Cameron: The latter.

Zock jr: Dave, do you sometimes have a hard time caring about baseball when national news is like it is? I want more than anything to lose myself in the coming season, to obsess about every plate appearance and give my brain some respite from what ails it. But I’m also afraid that everything that has developed outside of it will sap some of the joy of the game. Basically, I just want to know if this is something you guys are struggling with as well, and how you manage it.

Dave Cameron: I’ve been working on a post for a while about this, and yeah, it’s something I’m trying to work through. It’s easy to say baseball isn’t really important compared to what else is happening, but there’s also a reality that people do need escapes. It’s a complex topic, and why I haven’t hit publish on the post yet.

Natitude Adjuster: How much does the Adam Lind signing help the Nats’ depth problem that you identified recently?

Dave Cameron: Well he’s a lot better than Clint Robinson, so that helps.

Dave Cameron: But ideally they needed a 1B/LF so that they had depth behind Werth too, and Lind isn’t that.

Dave Cameron: So he helps, but that bench is still bad.

EbenezerBatflip: Who is the second best team in the AL Central? Seems like after CLE, there is a giant dropoff and lots of question marks. Will anyone in the ALC give CLE any kind of challenge?

Dave Cameron: I’ll take DET out of the next group.

El Duderino: Would you have a team full of Kiermiers or a team full of Nelson Cruzs (Elite defenders with avg bats, or Elite Bats with bad D)

Dave Cameron: You’d win a lot more games with the Keiermaiers.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: When do you think the WBC should be played? As it is now or in the summer? I personally think the summer and that the whole “injury risk” thing is overblown. Soccer and hockey play tourneys mid year, it’s sports, injuries happen.

Dave Cameron: I’d still use it to replace the All-Star Game, and have it be a one week mid-season tournament.

Guest: Why do players that have terrible years get raises in arbitration?

Dave Cameron: Because the pay scale is more about service time.

Justino: Does the Reyes injury kick the Cardinals into full rebuild mode if they are not contending pretty much immediately?

Dave Cameron: No, definitely not. They’re still a win-now team.

Jose: If it were 2005, would Joey Gallo be a more prized player?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know. Russ Branyan wasn’t all that prized.

jpg: Mike Trout is the clear cut best player in baseball. Who’s the second best? If Kershaw, than who is the second best position player?

Dave Cameron: Probably Machado or Donaldson.

Dave Cameron: Bryant is in there too.

Dave Cameron: It’s a third baseman, is what I’m saying.

Scott: Anyone put off by Dave’s snark should give FanGraphs audio a shot. For some reason his brand of mechanical, logic-driven, social ineptitude is actually charming when you hear it out loud.

Dave Cameron: Thanks?

Kiermaier’s Engaged Green Eyes: If the Cards were to trade Reyes, how much would his value take a hit from the injury and lost time?

Dave Cameron: You’re talking about a year and a half of lost production, and the risk that he doesn’t come back at all, since not every TJ guy successfully rehabs. I’d probably guess he’s lost something like 40% of his value.

J. Peterman: What do definite starting players think about spring training? Do they relish every chance to tune up before the season, or do they just want to escape without injury? Totally dependent on the player?

Dave Cameron: I think 98% of players agree spring training is too long.

Dave Cameron: And not that useful.

Andy: I have always preferred known quantities vs projections so was all for Quintana for Reyes when those rumors were floated. Easy to say no in retrospect but what are your thoughts on proven players vs prospects?

Dave Cameron: There is no such thing as a known quantity.

Dave Cameron: Every player has risk. You simply are weighing the risks and rewards of every player.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Are you taking the over or under on the .272/.350/.515 Steamer projection for Eric Thames – 2.3 WAR (!!!)?

Dave Cameron: Under a bit, but not a lot.

ryan: if the Oriole’s suck in the first half, what are the chances they trade Machado?

Dave Cameron: Those are the kinds of deals that usually happen in the offseason, in part because an acquiring team would want to try and get an extension done.

Dave Cameron: Or at least find out the price.

Logan Davis: Come August, which team will be employing Jose Abreu?

Dave Cameron: He feels like a Ranger.

J: Miggy a HOF’er if he retired tomorrow?

Dave Cameron: No question.

Tanner: Hey Dave, hope you feel better. Why is the WBC still a thing? I’d imagine most owners/front offices feel neutral to bad about it, since it increases risk of injury to players and detracts from Spring Training.

Dave Cameron: MLB has a real interest in developing the sport worldwide. The WBC is one of the best ways to do that.

Jason : More likely cause of your sickness — exposure to toddler or exposure to tundra-like winter??

Dave Cameron: It’s the kid. He’s a disease factory. He goes to preschool, gets germy, comes home, smothers me with germs.

Dave Cameron: I’ve been mostly sick for the last two months. It’s great. Kids are the best.

Logan Davis: What do you think of MLB’s process of hiring analysts through internships that turn into full-time offers? (Apparently this is how something like 75% of analysts get their jobs?) Do you agree that the practice reduces diversity of backgrounds (and therefore thought processes) in front offices? Is there competitive advantage to be had by offering better pay to analysts and thus attracting better, more diverse applicants?

Dave Cameron: I wrote about this in the 2014 THT Annual. It’s a big problem. http://www.hardballtimes.com/classic-tht-annual/white-bred-major-league-baseballs-intern-issue/

Jose: Does Travis Sawchick have 2 months to live so he’s writing the most awesome articles possible before he goes off into that good night? I mean seriously, he must be running a Trout-like WWAR (writer-WAR)

Dave Cameron: Travis has been fantastic. We couldn’t be happier to have him.

Al: Carsons attitude towards baseball is most similar to Dave’s attitude towards ___________________ .

Dave Cameron: Snoop Dogg. (This will make sense when he posts the one we recorded yesterday.)

Ed in Iowa: Sawchik is not a fan of adding the DH to the national league. Will he be fired this afternoon or did you know this about him and hired him anyway?

Dave Cameron: No one is perfect.

Ben: What position will Trea Turner be playing in three years?

Dave Cameron: Center field.

EbenezerBatflip: Hey, I don’t really like writing, but I love editing other people’s work. Is there a place for me in sports writing/editing/publishing?

Dave Cameron: Sure. Editing is a thankless job, but if you like doing it, there are lots of places that need editors.

Noah: I wouldn’t be surprised if Mike Rizzo reading FanGraphs’ article about their poor depth inspired them to sign Lind

Dave Cameron: Nah, there are plenty of people working in the Nationals front office that knew their bench sucked well before I wrote about it.

Guest: Hypothetically, whose monster spring training matters most?

Dave Cameron: Elmo

Dave Cameron: (I have a two year old. I couldn’t resist.)

Gabe: Am I crazy to think that the Rockies make a playoff push and could steal the NL West? They have a top notch lineup and they tried to patch up their bullpen which troubled them last season

Dave Cameron: You’re not crazy to think it could happen, because baseball is weird, but you’re crazy if you expect it; they’re a good 10-15 games worse than the Dodgers on paper.

baby bull : is Mookie Betts a better hitter than Manny Machado?

Dave Cameron: No.

Ray : Not sure if this was asked already. Do you know when we can expect Eric’s top 100 prospect rankings?

Dave Cameron: We’re aiming for March 13th. We know it’s later than everyone else publishes their lists, but we’d prefer he have as much time to gather as much information as he can.

Trevor: Name a starter you think would dominate out of the pen, and should make the switch

Dave Cameron: Tyler Glasnow.

Erik: If the MLB wants to push the WBC in order to grow the sport, they’re doing a poor job of it aren’t they? You can’t say you’re crowning a world champion if Trout and Kershaw aren’t even participating in the tournament. How can the MLB persuade all the stars to show up? And would you agree that the tournament needs them if it wants respect?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think anyone thinks the WBC winner is the “World Champion”.

Dave Cameron: The event is about the game, not just about the best players.

EbenezerBatflip: What position will Moncada be playing in three years?

Dave Cameron: Center field.

v2micca: Of the teams out there currently engaged in an active rebuild, which organization’s rebuild contains the most risk?

Dave Cameron: Probably the Braves, since so much of their long-term bets are on pitchers.

Guest: Guess I’m out of the loop but why exactly are you in favor of DH in the National League?

Dave Cameron: Watching pitcher’s strike out or bunt guys over is the worst part of baseball.

Matt: Regarding your response to the Rockies potentially stealing the division – is it not crazy for even, say – a Cubs fan, to *expect* to win the division?

Dave Cameron: The Cubs are so good, and so much better than the next best NL Central team, that them winning the division probably is more likely than not.

Dave Cameron: But that’s pretty rare.

Guest: Heading to Bend for the first time this weekend. Where should I eat?

Dave Cameron: If you’re a drinker, you’ll probably spend most of your time at the 10 billion breweries we have here. I think Deschutes and Sunriver have the best food of that group. Versante PIzza is the best pizza we’ve had in town. If you want fancy, Zydeco is the place everyone raves about.

Matt: I don’t mean this how it sounds – is Erik Longenhagen just a bit slower to build his list (I’ll attribute it to thoroughness), or is it because he’s building his first one and doesn’t have a prior year to reference and build from?

Dave Cameron: The first trip through always takes the longest.

v2micca: So, Machado is going to get at least $280 million over 7 years, right? Probably with a player option.

Dave Cameron: No reason for him to settle for 7 years.

Dres: Should given a shout-out to Spork (restaurants in Bend)

Dave Cameron: I’ve only been once, and wasn’t as impressed as I hoped to be.

Dave Cameron: But sure, everyone else seems to be a big fan.

Josiah: “Watching pitchers strike out or bunt guys over is the worst part of baseball”? How many at bats is that a game, 4-5? NL is far superior because of strategy of double switching and needing a deep bench.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it just takes so much strategy to make a by-the-books double-switch.

5 Run Homer: Pineapple on pizza: yea or nay?

Dave Cameron: #TeamHotFruit

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to go work on my best transactions post, which will hopefully be up in the AM.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out everyone.