Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 2/23/17

2:00
Dan Szymborski: And away we go! Thanks for coming guys, had some internet issues yesterday.

2:01
Kevin: The Brewers best starting pitcher this year will be __________________

2:02
Dan Szymborski: Teddy Higuera 1986 remains the best starting pitcher for the Brewers as of 2017!

2:02
Dan Szymborski: You guys know my position on fill in the blanks! Just be gald I didn’t say fart.

2:02
Geoff Williams: If a team was projected to go 81-81, and added a batter who you knew would homer every at bat- but was limited to 15 pinch hit appearance through entire year, would that team be a World Series favourite?

2:03
Dan Szymborski: A playoff favorite, but I think you’d run out of PH appearances for the playoffs.

2:03
Billy Beane: Dan, what do you use to do your projections? I was talking about how I don’t know R in a thread a week or so ago and you said you said not to feel bad because you didn’t know it either and another commenter tried to ask what you use but as suddenly and mysteriously as you had arrived…. You were gone…

2:03
Dan Szymborski: Sorry, I lose track of threads, Dan, sometimes.

2:03
Dan Szymborski: I used to use a combination of Statistica and Excel, now with various Excel stat package plugins and Visual Basic, I can do it on just Excel. A giant gnarled Excel, of course.

2:04
John: What slash line would you expect from Austin Hedges this upcoming season?

2:04
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think ZiPS is that far off here.

2:04
CarrotJuice: Would you have tendered Eric Hosmer a contract this season? He’s making 12.25 mil.

2:04
Dan Szymborski: Yes, simply because this is realistically the end of the window.

2:04
Ivan: I’m sure this isn’t the first time this has been asked, but nonetheless: what’s the 15-word answer for why many/most players’ zWAR scores are much higher than their Fangraphs player page WAR scores attributed to ZiPS?

2:04
Dan Szymborski: I haven’t looked at this – FG is calculating the fWAR for the players.

2:05
Dan Szymborski: I’ll have to check and see if there’s a replacement level issue.

2:05
Brian Mangan: Would you ever offer a contract extension to a young pitcher or would you just try to get six years out of them?

2:05
Dan Szymborski: Sure. Always depends on the situation.

2:05
Dan Szymborski: I’d sure as hell have signed that Chris Sale contract!

2:05
Josh: Hi Dan does Fangraphs provide Batter data featuring that days opposing pitcher WoBA and ISO? I.e. If Bryce Harper is facing Felix Hernandez will it show the opposing pitcher WoBA under the stat line

2:05
Dan Szymborski: Not sure actually, gotta ask a FG guy

2:05
bucs_lose_again: Kevin Millar is the worst for introducing “sneaky” as an adjective for every friggin baseball player. That is all

2:06
Daniel: Do you think the Padres would have a better record than the Dodgers bench plus their AAA starters? Would it be close?

2:06
Dan Szymborski: No

2:06
Dan Szymborski: Would be an interesting experiment

2:06
Dan Szymborski: Does it have to be AAA starting pitchers or simply their 6th-10th options?

2:07
Dan Szymborski: If Ryu’s healthy again, t hat might be Kazmir/McCarthy/Wood/Stewart/Stripling?

2:07
Dan Szymborski: I’d take that over the Padre rotation

2:10
Dan Szymborski: Barnes/Bellinger/Utley/Segedin/Taylor/Van Slyke/Kiké/Ethier?

2:10
Dan Szymborski: Would be fun

2:10
harmony: ZiPS projects Boston catcher Blake Swihart with a 2017 WAR of a negative 0.1 in 342 plate appearances. ZiPS and other projections appear to be inconsistent with the two years of Swihart hype. What gives?

2:11
Dan Szymborski: His post-2014 play hasn’t lived up tot the Swihart hype.

2:11
Bebop: what would be an Arrieta extension that would be fair to both sides? 5 yrs, 135 million? that averages to 27 a year. chances of something close to that happening?

2:12
Dan Szymborski: I could see something like that. That’s more for an article, I think.

2:12
Evil Empire: Is there anything the MLB can do to stop the Yankees from being the Damn Yankees from throwing $750 mill and getting Harper, Harvey and Machado in the 2018 Offseason?

2:12
Dan Szymborski: Yankees have shied away from the luxury tax threshold before, I’m not sure they blast through it now

2:12
Matt: Dan – It’s Thursday. And I missed you.

2:12
Dan Szymborski: THIS IS BECOMING A MEME DO I REALLY NEED MORE CHAT MEMES

2:12
PF: Why do Zips and Steamer disagree so strongly on the Blue Jays? What’s your opinion?

2:13
Dan Szymborski: Well, the obvious answer is that they disagree more than typical on players on the team. Don’t see any obvious pattern of Blue Jays players.

2:13
Dan Szymborski: And since I don’t run Steamer, I don’t have insights into the inner workings.

2:13
Guest: Don’t know if you follow hockey, but is a Gretzky Trout comparison fair?

2:13
Dan Szymborski: I’m not a hockey fan enough to give that a fair answer.

2:13
John: Sell low on Sonny Gray, or does he turn it around?

2:14
Dan Szymborski: I can see a bounceback, but it’s likely that his moment of maximum value has passed.

2:14
Guest: Are you a believer in Kendrys Morales’ batted ball profile foreshadowing success with the Jays?

2:14
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is at least. I’m not quite as up as ZiPS, but I think he’ll do well in Toronto

2:16
Guest: What are the chances Jordan Schafer makes the Cardinals roster? Can a hybrid player like he wants to be work now?

2:16
Dan Szymborski: I think it can work. He just needs to not be *horrible* pitching to make it worthwhile.

2:16
Dan Szymborski: Because a mediocre pitcher that hits as a lousy outfielder rather than as a pitcher has real value.

2:17
Dan Szymborski: Not that I really have much faith in Matheny using Schafer ideally

2:17
Clarence: Does Trevor Rosenthal have any plus secondary pitches? How good is his fastball and what do you see his role going forward?

2:18
Dan Szymborski: Well, he does have his cutter.

2:18
Dan Szymborski: Way back when he was a prospect, he did have a pretty decent curve, but that kinda fell on the wayside when he was put in the bullpen.

2:18
Dan Szymborski: I mean it wasn’t a Kershaw curve or anything, but I recall it being adequate.

2:19
Dan Szymborski: And Rosenthal does have a good changeup that he never seems quite committed to, if that makes sense

2:19
Dave: What could Eddie Butlet do in a relief role with his fastball/changeup combination? Think the Cubs work some magic?

2:19
Dan Szymborski: He’s a throw-at-the-wall and see what happened.

2:20
Dee: Delino Deshields thoughts?

2:20
Dan Szymborski: what happens

2:21
Dan Szymborski: DeShields père we used to call Declino DeShields in that last year in Baltimore.

2:21
Dan Szymborski: Junior, I just don’t think si very good. If you want something specific, you’ll need to be more specific with the question

2:21
Druidiful: Are you actually here today after the false start yesterday?

2:21
Dan Szymborski: Yes

2:22
EL ASHABAN: Any dark horses for saves this year?

2:23
Dan Szymborski: Nate Jones? There’s really little reason for the White Sox to not trade Robertson if he fetches something remotely interesting.

2:23
Dan Szymborski: Carter Hopscotch Capps in SD if you keep an eye on his health progress

2:24
omar207: Hi Dan! I’m trying to find a formula that shows the relative value between commonly used FBB counting stats–something like the “Johnson Scale,” or Linear Weights, but which allows me to directly compare HR to SB to RBI, etc. I am sure I’ve seen a formula like this somewhere around FG in recent years, but I haven’t been able to find it! Thanks for all your great work, I’m stoked for the full Zips to drop!

2:24
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the specific formula you’re looking for, but I’ll post the Q in case someone else does

2:24
Goose: Barring a Machado signing, which NY team will have the better SS in two years?

2:24
Dan Szymborski: Mets

2:24
Guest: The runner up in the AL East will be _______

2:24
Dan Szymborski: Jays?

2:25
Guest: Pagan to the Blue Jays? Yay or Nay?

2:25
Dan Szymborski: Meh. It’s a nothing thing.

2:25
Old School Baseball: Kyle Schwarber not fast enough to lead off, right?

2:25
Dan Szymborski: Heh.

2:25
jon: How many of the following will end up being relievers: Giolito, Lopez, Dunning and Kopech?

2:25
Dan Szymborski: Lopez could, but really, the White Sox have ever reason to not move anyone to the pen unless they have to

2:26
Zonk: Please settle this….should NL pitchers bat 8th, or 9th?

2:26
Dan Szymborski: I believe that in simulations, 8th has a slight advantage, but it’s not a really big deal.

2:26
Teddy H.: I was better in 1987, look past the wins

2:27
Tony: Hey Dan, do you know if the ZIPS projections have been added to the ‘Depth Chart’ projections on the fangraphs site? Would that make the Depth Chart projections a blend of steamer and ZIPS?

2:27
Dan Szymborski: They have, as far as I know

2:27
Tim Whatley, DDS: Someone forgot to tell ZIPS that Big Papi retired…

2:27
Dan Szymborski: David Ortiz projection is not an error.

2:27
Dan Szymborski: Nor was Tim Hudson’s in 2016.

2:28
Dan Szymborski: or Chipper in 2013.

2:28
Dan Szymborski: or any of literally hundreds of retired players over the last 14 years, for anyone that’s paid the least bit of attention.

2:28
JP: Let’s assume you live on a planet that orbits a star called “Domingo Santana”. Over the next 8 months do you anticipate the climate on your planet to get warmer or do you fear that “Domingo Santana” will collapse into itself, forming a black hole?

2:30
Dan Szymborski: You need a lot more mass than Santana for a neutron star to form.

2:30
Dan Szymborski: And remember, that has to also be large enough to become a black hole

2:30
Dan Szymborski: Even Bartolo Colon couldn’t be a neutron star

2:30
Lee: Last gasp in NL only auction…Felipe Rivero or Edubray Ramos? Thanks!

2:31
Dan Szymborski: Personally prefer Rivero for 2017

2:31
Josh: Will you have opposing pitcher WOBA and ISO for the day when showing player stats for the day?

2:31
Dan Szymborski: Me? I won’t have any of that.

2:31
Josh: ive sent emails to fangraps and have yet to have a response

2:31
Dan Szymborski: Hit ’em up on Twitter. I don’t possess that knowledge.

2:31
Jeremy: Better 2017 season? Galileo or Giolito?

2:31
Dan Szymborski: Giolito. My cat isn’t very productive.

2:32
Dan Szymborski: And at 18, as much as I hate to think about it, his actuarial table for the next 8 months is way worse than Giolito’s

2:32
BL27: Francisco Liriano was very good with Toronto (Russell Martin). Do you expect a decent season for him? More like in 2014 or 2015 than 2016 ?

2:32
Dan Szymborski: Somewhere in the middle.

2:32
seth r: billy hamilton-jose peraza or schwarber-zobrist for batting 1-2? could there be a more extreme difference at the top of a batting order?

2:32
Dan Szymborski: I’ll take the second one.

2:33
Guest: Odds Kevin Pillar becomes a league average hitter.

2:33
Dan Szymborski: For all positions? I dunno, 35%?

2:33
Tim Whatley, DDS: If, upon dying, you are consigned to the depths of hell and forced to choose between watching Billy Butler or Matt Stairs belly dance for all of eternity, whom do you choose?

2:33
Dan Szymborski: Butler? Stairs had too good a career to have to spend eternity belly dancing.

2:33
Zach Walters Appreciation Guild: In Trout’s case, the 2017 ZiPS as posted by that grovelling knave, Cistulli, have him at a .409 wOBA vs. the .405 posted on his player page.

2:33
Dan Szymborski: They’ve probably moved to slightly different factors since then. I don’t have anything to do with that part

2:34
JoeB: Chris Archer- do you think he can sustain the second half performance over the entire season or will he be more of the first half disappointing pitcher?

2:34
Dan Szymborski: He certainly has the talent

2:34
Slew: What is your position on fill in the blanks? Or perhaps more to the point, is there any functional difference between “The brewers best starting pitcher this year will be ____” and “Who will be the brewers best starting pitcher this year” ?

2:34
Dan Szymborski: A question is a question. Making you complete a sentence with a predetermined blank is a madlib, an act of control!

2:34
Lee: How do you view Domingo Santana this year from a “gut call” prospective?

2:35
Dan Szymborski: Cautiously optimsitic

2:35
Zach Walters Appreciation Guild: Also ZiPS has Zach Walters at a 100 wRC+, so huzzae for ZiPS.

2:35
Sim: Has Xander Bogaerts reached his ceiling? Or can he up the homers?

2:35
Dan Szymborski: He can always be a bit better, but I don’t see the HRs going that high

2:35
Free Toles!: So how many PAs can we expect the annoying dodgers (with all of their annoying depth) to give Toles this year?

2:36
Dan Szymborski: 250-300? They have a lot of guys

2:36
Tim Whatley, DDS: How far back in time do you think we would have to go to find a World Series winner worse than the 2017 Padres? Infinitely?

2:36
Dan Szymborski: They would certainly be the worst team I ever projected to win the World Series.

2:36
PF: Odds of MLB imposing a hard salary cap within the next 15 years?

2:36
Dan Szymborski: 20%

2:36
Dan Szymborski: well, 20% on agreement

2:36
Dan Szymborski: maybe 2% for *impose*

2:38
drew: Is the Kipnis extension a fair comparison for Odor’s extension?

2:38
Dan Szymborski: I can see something comparable

2:38
Zach Walters Appreciation Guild: $750M for those three means Harvey’s had one hell of a decline.

2:38
Jeremy: Somebody should calculate all the time we’ve would have saved if the intentional walk rule was around during Bonds’ peak years

2:38
Hoser: If Trout was better than Bonds and Ruth put together then he would be comparable to Gretzky.

2:38
Free Toles!: Re: Kendrys Morales, like 275/30/90 well?

2:38
Dan Szymborski: Would take the under on the BA for sure.

2:39
Andrew : What do you think of Bo Bichette? Could he become a stud SS prospect a la Torres/Rosario?

2:39
Dan Szymborski: A little premature.

2:39
Dan Szymborski: Guys that young, I don’t like forming too much of an opinion without some significant professional play, even looking at tapes

2:40
Dan Szymborski: (After all, I don’t have to, I’m not a scout!)

2:40
Matt: Dan – as a paying FG member, I am officially a customer. You should never yell at your customers, Dan.

2:40
Dan Szymborski: But I’m nota FG employee!

2:40
Dan Szymborski: I can yell as a I please!

2:40
Randal Grichuk’s #1 fan: Am I wrong to be a fan of Randal Grichuk?

2:40
Dan Szymborski: Not if it’s what your heart tells you

2:40
Los: How will Eric Hosmer ever sign a 10-year deal when the Rockies signed the greatest 1B of all time in Ian Desmond?

2:40
Dan Szymborski: I’d sign Hosmer for 10-years, $30 million. That’s like seven free years!

2:41
Matt: Schafer? I barely knew her.

2:41
Free Toles!: Why do we never see college coaches hired by MLB teams in need of managers?

2:41
Dan Szymborski: College baseball has always been the weak cousin of the college versions of major sports

2:42
Dan Szymborski: The minors are an extensive buffer between majors and college that you don’t have

2:42
PF: Based on pure value, what does a Mike Trout trade return look like? Can be prospects from multiple teams, not just one…..

2:43
Dan Szymborski: It would almost need to be a complex trade because I don’t think a fair value for Trout is so much

2:43
Ron: Why are people so high on Jon Gray? All things being equal (Park Factors, Run Support, etc.) he is a top (insert here) pitcher?

2:43
Dan Szymborski: Becaue he pitches well?

2:43
mtsw: Is the full version of the ZiPS algorithm used in OOTP18 or is it just a set of projections you’ve already run?

2:43
Dan Szymborski: Set of projections

2:43
Lou Holtz: What type of season does Stroman have? Cy young caliber?

2:43
Dan Szymborski: I think he’s good, but people have frequently overrated him. He’s not an elite pitcher.

2:44
Matt: Dan, Dan, he’s our man! If he can’t do it, then it’s hard to imagine that in a world of over 6 billion people there’s not someone else who can!

2:44
Bern: Did you watch Little Big League on MLB Network last night?

2:44
Dan Szymborski: No

2:45
PF: Is osuna being wasted as a closer? Should the Jays re transition him to a starter?

2:45
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s tricky in that he was never really stretched out aggressively as a starter

2:45
Dan Szymborski: I think you try to give him more innings, see how it works, and then revisit in the next couple years

2:45
PL: Asked Eno this already, but I’m going to the MIT Analytics Conference next weekend, and I was wondering how I can best spend my time there as someone trying to get in to the industry

2:45
Dan Szymborski: Meet people, talk.

2:46
Druidiful: Do you believe that there will be an exemption for Shohei Otani to come over next offseason or will he have to wait till he turns 25?

2:46
Dan Szymborski: We’ll have to wait. I’m not happy, of course.

2:46
Matt: Regarding formula to compare FBB stats…wouldn’t a z-score be what he’s looking for?

2:46
Dan Szymborski: I thought he meant a specific baseball-thing

2:46
Matt: Angel Pagan – most paradoxical name in baseball.

2:47
Free Toles!: Trevor Story 30 homers. You have the under?

2:47
Dan Szymborski: Yes. It’s not a baseline and we dont’ know if we’re in a new HR era rather than a one year blip

2:47
Druidiful: There are almost games today and there are real(?) games tomorrow!

2:47
Goose Gossage: I’m sick of these nerds trying to explain a game they’ve never played with their fancy computers. MAKE BASEBALL GREAT AGAIN!

2:47
omar207: At the risk of cluttering your “inbox”, just wanted to say thanks for posting that!

2:47
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the reference!

2:47
Tim: You have to start one Padre, one Twin, and one Brave in your fantasy team. Who are they, and are you at all happy about it?

2:48
Dan Szymborski: Margot, Buxton, Freeman?

2:48
Dan Szymborski: Happy about Freeman, not so much the other two since I’m not getting properly compensated in fantasy for their defense

2:50
Free Toles!: Who is your all time favorite Roger?

2:50
Dan Szymborski: the Shrubber

2:50
Matt: Where is the ZiPS projection for Chris Sale’s JRpG? (Jerseys Ruined per Game)

2:50
Dan Szymborski: None – the Red Sox don’t have super outlandish throwbacks

2:50
Eric Hosmer: If you HAD to sign me to a 10 year deal, and you knew you were going to cut me somewhere in the middle and were treating the last 4-6 years as deferred money, how much would you be willing to pay? $25 million? Also, do you want whatever we’re smoking at my house?

2:50
Dan Szymborski: I might go as high as 3/40 if I’m in win now

2:50
Bootles : Game 7 of World Series…you starting prime Higuera or old Colon?

2:51
Dan Szymborski: Colon so that people don’t know I’m wasting my time machine

2:51
PL: How many wins would Mike Trout lose if he was forced to wear a 25lb weighted vest at all times while on the field?

2:51
Dan Szymborski: I dunno, 0.5? Would be interesting if we had the data to track weight gains.

2:52
Dan Szymborski: But of course a lot of that would sometimes be muscle rather than flab

2:52
Matt: Which non-Nick Markakis player do you foresee bringing in the most question in SzymChat after week 2 of the regular season?

2:52
Dan Szymborski: Request for Barry Bonds projections

2:52
Matt: Dan Szymborski? More like Dan Szym-bore-sky, ammirite?

2:52
Dan Szymborski: The very clouds t hemselvs are bored.

2:52
Billy Beane: If a Toyger kitten showed up at your local animal shelter, would you jump all over that, or are they too flashy for your taste?

2:53
Dan Szymborski: I’m not quite ready to adopt an additional cat unless a specific event/need arose.

2:53
tengopreguntas: do you throw cats like eno?

2:53
Dan Szymborski: I sometimes toss cats onto couches or chairs or beds or something.

2:54
Dan Szymborski: Galileo especially because he’ll do shit like I’ll be at my desk here eating a sub and he’ll try to take a bite from the other end, so I’ll toss him onto the couch in my office.

2:54
Dan Szymborski: But I can’t say if it’s like Eno, I don’t know if he’s throwing cats off towers or something

2:54
Karl: Is Moncada a second baseman or an outfielder for the White Sox in 2018?

2:54
Dan Szymborski: They keep him an infielder as long as they can if they’re smart

2:55
Curtis: darkhorse for AL/NL MVP this season?

2:55
Dan Szymborski: Arenado in the NL.

2:55
Dan Szymborski: Seager or Lindor or someone in the AL if they also somehow injure Trout.

2:56
Dan Szymborski: If you’re an infielder an injure a sliding Trout, especially if you’re Seager, that’s like one WAR for a team in the AL West!

2:56
Curtis: Mike Trout’s age 35 season stat line?

2:56
Dan Szymborski: BA/OBP/SLG

2:57
John: Favorite pitch in the majors? (ie kersh curve, archer slider)

2:57
Dan Szymborski: Mussina knuckle-curve

2:57
Dan Szymborski: followed by Gregg Olson curve

2:58
Dan Szymborski: Appier forkball

2:58
Michelozzo: Yonder Alonso’s bat return to about league average this year?

2:58
Dan Szymborski: I’d say no

2:58
Rufus T. Firefly: Dan: Are you related by blood to Brian Eno?

2:58
Dan Szymborski: Not that I know of

2:58
Miky: Do you trust Matt Harvey, this year and beyond?

2:58
Dan Szymborski: He’s never broken my harp

2:58
Dan Szymborski: heart

2:58
Dan Szymborski: wtf, dan?

2:59
Dan Szymborski: Though if I had a harp, I would appreciate people not breaking it

2:59
Rufus T. Firefly: When my family got to Ellis Island our screwed up stupid long Polish name got changed to Jones. Don’t you wish someone had thought to do that for your hapless ancestors?

2:59
Dan Szymborski: We started out as smith but the Ellis Island clerk dropped his coffee mug on the typewriter and we just went with the result.

2:59
biffyclyro: Why does Cistulli get a bad rap?

2:59
Dan Szymborski: Dooming mankind

2:59
Jon: How much Grit could a Grichuk chuck if a Grichuk could chuck grit?

2:59
Dan Szymborski: 2 kilograms an hour

3:00
Rufus T. Firefly: Will there ever be baseball played on a different planet or in a giant dome orbiting the earth? Is anyone talking about this?

3:00
Dan Szymborski: I think baseball will die before we get *that* far in the timeline

3:00
Michelozzo: Which areas of ZiPS do you want to improve the most?

3:00
Dan Szymborski: Accuracy

3:00
@RationalMLBfan: I’ve previously thought of Murray Chass (“You digital dandy!”) as Tellah (“You spoony bard!”); however, this analogy fails because Chass doesn’t know Meteo. In the Final Fantasy movie, which character would you portray?

3:00
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t see the SpiritS within. Looked cringey

3:00
Karl: If there is a WAR for outdoor cats is it SBKAR (song birds kills above replacement)?

3:00
Dan Szymborski: Need data

3:01
Matt: Don’t you think Marcus should change his last name to Stroperson? It’s 2017, Dan. He should be more sensitive.

3:01
Dan Szymborski: Heh

3:01
Ferris Buehler: Bellinger or Josh Bell?

3:01
Dan Szymborski: inger

3:01
Strochez forever: Can someone please explain to me how Sanchez could lead the AL in ERA last year, yet not even be a Cy Young finalist?! I mean I know ERA isn’t nor shouldn’t be the end all stat it once was, but still!

3:01
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t vote on that (I was NL ROY) but I would have strongly considered him

3:01
Dronefinger: With Manfred saying Las Vegas would be a viable city for an expansion team, who do you think could get an expansion team first? Las Vegas or Montreal? Or other?

3:01
Dan Szymborski: Manfred will say he’s considering anything you ask him.

3:01
ECinDC: I would literally do just about anything for a 10 year, $30 million contact

3:01
Dan Szymborski: Would you pay $40 million? That would not be a good deal.

3:02
Dan: Not muscle gain, strictly fat gain, a 300 lb Mike Trout would be awesome.

3:02
Dan Szymborski: The defense would fall off quite a bit

3:02
Bootles : Ocelets are trendy now

3:02
Dan Szymborski: Whatever happened to Babou?

3:02
CarrotJuice: According to Jon Heyman, the Mets “seriously considered” giving up Conforto for JD Martinez. That can’t be true, right? RIGHT?

3:03
Dan Szymborski: They also seriously consider starting Jay Bruce, so it could be.

3:03
Chris: Arenado may be the best player in the NL, not a dark horse.

3:03
Dan Szymborski: OK FINE ADEINY HECHAVARRIA CHOKE ON THAT

3:03
drew: Rather watch a pitcher go 7 innings with 14 K’s or complete game in under 100 pitches?

3:03
Dan Szymborski: I like The Maddux.

3:04
Bootles: Ever notice how west-coasters have names like Salmon and Trout?

3:04
Dan Szymborski: They all secretly wish they lived next to the ocean that WASNT creepily cold in the summer.

3:04
Dominic: How many games David Wright plays for the rest of his career?

3:04
Dan Szymborski: 100

3:04
Wily Dames: Do you think Mark Buerle’s perfect game pushes him into the HoF?

3:04
Dan Szymborski: No

3:04
Wily Dames: Person you least expect that puts up a 4 WAR season in 2017?

3:04
Dan Szymborski: The Padre Rotation.

3:05
Unimpressed: It would be nice if there was a FG chat someday that wasn’t 60% inside jokes, non-baseball questions, and snark.

3:05
Dan Szymborski: I’ve been doing this for 20 years. You think Coke is suddenly going to say “Hey, let’s just rye bread for now on?”

3:05
CarrotJuice: I did not realize we had the leader of Freedonia in this chat. Hello, Mr. Firefly!

3:06
Foodie: What is a good encore for Rick Porcello like?

3:06
Dan Szymborski: Bazzini’s La ronde de lutins is an excellent encore if he plays the violin.

3:06
Mariner Moose: Pro-Harambe or Anti-Harambe?

3:06
Dan Szymborski: I’m in the middle.

3:06
Hannah Hochevar: Hi Dan. So the O’s suddenly, finally, made a flurry of milquetoast moves. Were they more ‘too little too late’ or ‘better late than never’?

3:07
Dan Szymborski: O’s in the awkward position that the stuff it would have made sense for them to pay aggressively for this offseason didn’t exist.

3:07
Dan Szymborski: And no farm system.

3:07
Dan Szymborski: Well, not literally no farm system, but their assets down there are very limited

3:07
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think there’s not much they could’ve done.

3:07
Bootles : Where were you for Kerry Wood’s debut? Watching?

3:09
Dan Szymborski: No idea. Was it on national TV then? I dont’ remember watching it if it was

3:09
Dan Szymborski: We didn’t have WGN by that point in thte cable company

3:09
Matt: Hey Dan – You should tell those people that complain about the non-baseball questions and inside jokes that they should just BUZZ OFF

3:09
Mariner Moose: Sorry, @unimpressed, snark is the fuel of the internet

3:09
ECinDC: Why did you answer my throwaway joke instead of letting me know how angry you thought Angelos was that the Nats signed Wieters?

3:10
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know why he’d be angry

3:10
Chuncey Wiggins: How many 10-year olds would you have to scatter throughout the outfield for them to field like a league average outfield?

3:10
Dan Szymborski: 6?

3:10
Aidan: Dan, you never replied to my email about suggestions for a nonparametric baseball-related research topic 🙁

3:10
Dan Szymborski: I’m sorry, I’m horribly behind on my email. I’ll make sure and find it today

3:10
John: Not sure how long you’ve been voting on awards, but was it a little frustrating getting stuck with NL ROY? I would see AL CY or something similar as more fun compared to an easy pick like corey seager

3:10
Dan Szymborski: I’m in the Cincy chapter, so I’m mostly going to be voting for NL awards unless they need a fill-in elsewhere, like you sometimes see

3:10
PF: You can only have one rotation, the Red Sox’s or the Blue Jays’……

3:11
Dan Szymborski: Uh, Red Sox?

3:12
There’s No Dellin: Boy…based on his stellar minor league history and short-but-impressive MLB debut, ZiPS sure did a number on the Bucs’ Adam Frazier. What’s up?

3:12
Dan Szymborski: Walk heavy no power guys translate horribly from the minors if they’re not unbelievably fast.

3:13
ECinDC: So as far as Harambe goes, you’re just like Donald Trump. “They did what, I assume, they had to do”

3:13
Dan Szymborski: I just said I don’t have strong feelings!

3:13
Bootles : What did Blanton do to deserve this fate?

3:13
Dan Szymborski: He knows

3:13
TKDC: What’s worse: posting political nonsense of Facebook, or posting about how much you don’t like political nonsense posts on Facebook, on Facebook?

3:13
Dan Szymborski: Political stuff has made Facebook unreadable and Twitter you now have to heavily curate to keep it readable

3:13
CarrotJuice: I believe “The Padres 2017 Rotation” is recognized in the DSM-5 as a severe form depression

3:14
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a cause of a syndrome, not the syndrome itself

3:14
Matt: I’m all for wearing crazy socks. But red ones?! That’s just insane.

3:14
ECinDC: Fair. Just a note, the O’s are the only team in MLB that Nats haven’t made a trade with since they moved to Washington.

3:14
Lee: What does your gut tell you? One-year power spike or new power era?

3:14
Dan Szymborski: Looking at my gut, it mostly tells me to drink beer.

3:14
Ferris Buehler: How many ounces of pee do you think you can drink?

3:14
Dan Szymborski: Like for free? None. If I need to drink my pee to stay hydrated in an emergency? I can probably drink it. It’s essentially sterile

3:14
Ron: Jon Gray pitches well relative to where he plays home games. He doesn’t pitch well overall

3:15
Dan Szymborski: Distinction without a difference.

3:15
Dan Szymborski: He pitches well.

3:15
Dan Szymborski: Do you think astronauts on the moon are just the most amazing jumpers ever?

3:16
Dan Szymborski: Do you think LeBron James with an old timey cannonball chained to his ankle just would suck at jumping?

3:16
Doug: Good lord!! What kind of idiot comes up with these stupid questions.?

3:16
Dan Szymborski: The guys asking them I think

3:16
Matt: I deactivated my Facebook. I don’t follow any friends on Twitter…just baseball, and people who’s political opinions I care to hear.

3:16
Matt: Did you gut also tell you to take acid? Because that’s the only way I can imagine that your gut is talking.

3:16
Dan Szymborski: OK guys, 3:16 and it’s time for me to head out

3:17
Dan Szymborski: YOU CAN TALK ABOUT YOUR JOHN 3:16 BUT SZYMBORSKI 3:16 SAYS YOU CAN FIND MY WORK AT ESPN.COM, CHATS AND PROJECTIONS HERE AT FANGRAPHS, AND DSZYMBORSKI ON TWITTER





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Jim Hmember
7 years ago

Chuncey Wiggins
3:10 How many 10-year olds would you have to scatter throughout the outfield for them to field like a league average outfield?
Dan Szymborski
3:10 6?

No way six would get it done. If you covered every square inch of the outfield with 10-year-olds lying side-by-side, then every liner/flyball would land on them and become an out when picked up. They would give up all kinds of runs with their throwing arms and they wouldn’t field any normally catchable balls that hit the OF wall first, but the extra outs would make up for that. Would covering 75% of the OF with them get you to an average OF? 50%? You would cover the deeper parts of the OF so that infielders going back on pop-ups aren’t falling all over the place trying to run across the sea of 10-year-olds OFs.

The outfield shifts alone would take forever, so probably need a shift clock to speed up the game.

Spartacus
7 years ago
Reply to  Jim H

So what’s the correct answer smart guy?