How Would You Comp Yasiel Puig?

Perspective matters a great deal when you’re trying to look at a question and find the unfiltered truth. It’s true of all statistical analysis, but it becomes even more obvious when you’re trying to find comparable historical players.

Where do you set the cutoffs? How far back do you go in the player pool? How far back do you go in the player’s own career? If you manipulate the variables, you can get all sorts of different results. That’s why it’s so hard to analyze a player simply by finding other, similar players. The very idea of similar is difficult to pin down.

Take Yasiel Puig, for example. Pull the strings a little differently each time, and his comps vary wildly.

Let’s be pessimistic! Let’s cut off those good 2013 and 2014 seasons and focus on the last two years. In those years, he walked 7.4% of the time, struck out 20.6 % of the time, and hit for a .260/.323/.425 line that was 7% better that league average. That’s been paired with negative defensive value — not terrible work with the glove, as he’s ranged between -1 and -3 in that category, but below zero.

So let’s look back to 1974 and find batters 26 and under who have walked more than 7% of the time, struck out between 15 and 21% of the time, had above-average power (>.140 isolated slugging percentage) and played in the outfield to negative but not terrible defensive numbers. We could cap the walk rate, but if we don’t, a very interesting name runs to the top. Since this is about the subjectivity of comps, nominally, let’s not cap the walk rate.

Oh no. Oh, anyone else at the top of this list. Depending on how you feel about Puig’s shenanigans, that name at the top feels too precisely on the nose to ignore. But even that’s unfair. Bradley was such a hot-head that he threw a bottle at a fan and tore his ACL being held back from a fight with an umpire. Puig has had his moments, but they pale in comparison to Bradley’s, at least in this writer’s opinion.

And that’s not to mention the problems with comparing their games. Bradley walked more, at least in the sample at which we’re looking, but was also less of an asset on the basepaths than Puig, who’s been a positive in that department for three straight years. And then there’s the power… doesn’t Puig have more of it? He does if you judge Puig by his career to date (.184) which is more fair, considering these are career numbers for Bradley and only Puig’s last two years.

Alright, let’s bring back in those two good years for Puig. They happened! They represent Puig’s upside as much as the last two years represent his downside. For his career, Puig has walked 8.7% of the time and struck out 20.6% of the time, with a .184 ISO, positive baserunning value, and some flaws on defense. We’ll find better comps if we use these as benchmarks.

Marty Cordova got a late start, but after he turned 26, he still managed another 3000 plate appearances that were 1% better than league average. He may have played poor defense and only been worth another three wins, but he’s also the worst-case scenario on this list. Nick Swisher is probably the second-worst outcome here, and he managed nearly 20 more wins. Guerrero had 26.

And then there’s Andrew McCutchen and Bryce Harper. Sure, Harper walked more than Puig has, and so did Cutch, and both may have a little more defensive value, but they aren’t in different stratospheres. If someone tried to sell you on a McCutchen-lite, would they have to try too hard?

The shape of Puig’s career matters, and his last two years haven’t been great. But they’ve also been half years, full of bluster and boil. If you zoom out on his career, you’ll find that his comps improve and he still has the makings of an above-average player. But that requires subjectivity, and the willingness to give him the benefit of the doubt. And before you rail against that subjectivity, scroll up and realize how much subjectivity has been involved in this enterprise from the beginning.

So, how would you comp Yasiel Puig? Milton Bradley or Pedro Guerrero?