How Would You Comp Yasiel Puig?
Perspective matters a great deal when you’re trying to look at a question and find the unfiltered truth. It’s true of all statistical analysis, but it becomes even more obvious when you’re trying to find comparable historical players.
Where do you set the cutoffs? How far back do you go in the player pool? How far back do you go in the player’s own career? If you manipulate the variables, you can get all sorts of different results. That’s why it’s so hard to analyze a player simply by finding other, similar players. The very idea of similar is difficult to pin down.
Take Yasiel Puig, for example. Pull the strings a little differently each time, and his comps vary wildly.
Let’s be pessimistic! Let’s cut off those good 2013 and 2014 seasons and focus on the last two years. In those years, he walked 7.4% of the time, struck out 20.6 % of the time, and hit for a .260/.323/.425 line that was 7% better that league average. That’s been paired with negative defensive value — not terrible work with the glove, as he’s ranged between -1 and -3 in that category, but below zero.
So let’s look back to 1974 and find batters 26 and under who have walked more than 7% of the time, struck out between 15 and 21% of the time, had above-average power (>.140 isolated slugging percentage) and played in the outfield to negative but not terrible defensive numbers. We could cap the walk rate, but if we don’t, a very interesting name runs to the top. Since this is about the subjectivity of comps, nominally, let’s not cap the walk rate.
| Name | PA | Def | BB% | K% | ISO | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Bradley | 4181 | -10.5 | 11.9% | 19.5% | 0.169 | 0.271 | 0.364 | 0.44 | 114 |
| Lloyd Moseby | 6574 | -3.6 | 9.4% | 17.3% | 0.157 | 0.257 | 0.332 | 0.414 | 103 |
| Gregory Polanco | 1551 | -6 | 8.9% | 19.3% | 0.152 | 0.253 | 0.318 | 0.404 | 98 |
| Oddibe McDowell | 3172 | -9.4 | 9.3% | 17.3% | 0.142 | 0.253 | 0.323 | 0.395 | 95 |
| Eric Byrnes | 3531 | -1.9 | 7.1% | 15.2% | 0.181 | 0.258 | 0.320 | 0.439 | 94 |
Oh no. Oh, anyone else at the top of this list. Depending on how you feel about Puig’s shenanigans, that name at the top feels too precisely on the nose to ignore. But even that’s unfair. Bradley was such a hot-head that he threw a bottle at a fan and tore his ACL being held back from a fight with an umpire. Puig has had his moments, but they pale in comparison to Bradley’s, at least in this writer’s opinion.
And that’s not to mention the problems with comparing their games. Bradley walked more, at least in the sample at which we’re looking, but was also less of an asset on the basepaths than Puig, who’s been a positive in that department for three straight years. And then there’s the power… doesn’t Puig have more of it? He does if you judge Puig by his career to date (.184) which is more fair, considering these are career numbers for Bradley and only Puig’s last two years.
Alright, let’s bring back in those two good years for Puig. They happened! They represent Puig’s upside as much as the last two years represent his downside. For his career, Puig has walked 8.7% of the time and struck out 20.6% of the time, with a .184 ISO, positive baserunning value, and some flaws on defense. We’ll find better comps if we use these as benchmarks.
| Name | PA | Def | BsR | BB% | K% | ISO | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Guerrero | 1310 | -10.1 | 0.5 | 8.5% | 14.6% | 0.197 | 0.305 | 0.366 | 0.502 | 145 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 3171 | -2.5 | 22.3 | 11.4% | 16.7% | 0.193 | 0.296 | 0.380 | 0.489 | 139 |
| Bryce Harper | 2770 | -5.1 | 11.2 | 14.0% | 20.4% | 0.222 | 0.279 | 0.382 | 0.501 | 139 |
| Yasiel Puig | 1751 | -10.8 | 0.4 | 8.7% | 20.6% | 0.184 | 0.287 | 0.361 | 0.472 | 135 |
| Nick Swisher | 1924 | -14.9 | 7.9 | 13.5% | 21.0% | 0.213 | 0.251 | 0.361 | 0.464 | 118 |
| Marty Cordova | 1219 | -5.2 | 0.6 | 8.6% | 17.0% | 0.188 | 0.294 | 0.362 | 0.482 | 113 |
Marty Cordova got a late start, but after he turned 26, he still managed another 3000 plate appearances that were 1% better than league average. He may have played poor defense and only been worth another three wins, but he’s also the worst-case scenario on this list. Nick Swisher is probably the second-worst outcome here, and he managed nearly 20 more wins. Guerrero had 26.
And then there’s Andrew McCutchen and Bryce Harper. Sure, Harper walked more than Puig has, and so did Cutch, and both may have a little more defensive value, but they aren’t in different stratospheres. If someone tried to sell you on a McCutchen-lite, would they have to try too hard?
The shape of Puig’s career matters, and his last two years haven’t been great. But they’ve also been half years, full of bluster and boil. If you zoom out on his career, you’ll find that his comps improve and he still has the makings of an above-average player. But that requires subjectivity, and the willingness to give him the benefit of the doubt. And before you rail against that subjectivity, scroll up and realize how much subjectivity has been involved in this enterprise from the beginning.
So, how would you comp Yasiel Puig? Milton Bradley or Pedro Guerrero?
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
I WANT him to be McCutchen lite or Harper(ish) – he’s so damn entertaining to watch; Puig seems like one of few talents in the game that can pull a spectacular highlight out of the ether at any minute. The question is: can he overcome whatever is holding him back? Because it isn’t talent…Eno, what’s your POV?
To me, he is like Allen Iverson or Kobe. The only way you score 40 points is by forcing a bunch of shots and most players would never do that. The only way you create Puig’s highlight reel (and blooper real) is by having utter disregard for what everyone else is doing. At the end of the day, the highlights are spectacular, but it is not the same game that the rest of the league is playing. If you are a SportsCenter fan, then he is a hero! I don’t think there is a comp, because in every previous generation he wouldn’t have gotten the playing time. Even in this generation, where MLB is trying to create a superstar-driven game, he is losing chances.
You obviously have not watched many Dodgers games.
You obviously have not watched many Sixers games.
You might as well have just written “get off my lawn!”. Baseball is an individual sport masquerading as a team sport – the only time Puig could impact his teammates on the field is base running, or ignoring signs/not hitting behind someone to advance a runner. Anything else is incumbent upon him and his individual skill level…if you want to talk about distraction in the clubhouse, etc. that’s another issue all together.
This assumes that attitude, positive work environment, getting along with co workers, confidence, willingness to learn, etc have no bearing on performance.
That’s simply not true. Can we quantify how much effect they have? No. But in 12,000 BC people couldn’t quantify the diameter of the earth. Didn’t mean it was flat.
This guy gets it. It is easy to see the signs if you look for them. Almost everything in baseball is routine, the question is how do you handle the actual judgment calls? His blooper reel is clear indication of his baseball character. He is not a bad guy necessarily, but he is out there to do his thing.
now Ronnie, you haven’t pulled the wool over anyone’s eyes here. it’s painfully obvious that you posted under your alias bpd (Big Poppa Dobbs) just so you could commend yourself as Ronnie. we see what you did there, Poppa 😉
no, it does not assume those things. Ronnie (a.k.a. bpd) made an argument relating specifically to on the field play. Big Bona clearly acknowledges the potential for the factors you’ve stated to be impactful, but that’s not really what Big Poppa was arguing.
You obviously have not watched many Laker games.
“He’s like these two hall-of-fame athletes… it’s terrible.”
Also, I’m not sure if the MLB is trying to create a superstar-driven game anymore now than they did previously. Maybe they are; it’s not necessarily a thing I would notice. I remember more “superstars” in my youth (late 90’s/early 00’s) than now, however. I might have a bias. It seems to me you do, as well.
Barry Bonds, Mark McGuire and Sammy Sosa were bigger in mainstream media than any current MLB player.
That was spontaneous. It just happened when they started making history – that is the way it should happen. I don’t think MLB was driving their ascension. MLB is clearly pushing a superstar-driven model now.
Those two NBA HOFers were not terrible at anything. I never said they were. They did do their own thing though. Most guys play to win, some guys play to make highlights and headlines. Those two played alongside and against hundreds of other skilled players that would never dream of jacking up that many shots. They are not bad, they are just selfish. Has anyone ever disputed that? Puig plays selfish baseball, which produces some interesting highlights.
My point is simply that it is hard to compare a guy who plays smart with a guy that is reckless. I would bet that those “safe” guys could do some spectacular things if they wanted to abandon everything they have ever practiced or been taught.
I don’t know much about advanced stats in basketball, but I can see that Kobe is 16th all-time in VROP (Value Over Replacement Player), and 18th in win shares. I’m going to trust those numbers, along with my memories of him hoisting championship trophies. Iverson, while lower on those lists, definitely carried his team to a Finals appearance once, and was amazing in his era. You can say you don’t like that they were ball-dominant, but you can’t use that to say they were unsuccessful because of it.
As for your claim of superstar-driving, I just don’t see how the league is doing that more now than before. If you can provide evidence more than a “back in my day” statement, I’d love it. I’d say with the influx of relief pitchers, there are actually less superstars than in previous eras, because starting pitchers just can’t put up the numbers or be in the spotlight for as long.
You obviously have not watched many baseball games
I am now concerned about Greg Polanco
By all accounts his body is way different than it was back in ’14. And not in a good way. Until he gets it back (very probably not), why pretend ’14 and earlier have any significance??
They asked him to lose weight this year and he did it. We’ll see whether it lasts, and whether it is enough, but that story could have been way worse at this point in the year.
Pedro Guerrero was a well known head case. It seems apt.
I remember reading an incident where he was ejected for arguing a balk call for no good reason. I don’t remember the particulars off the top of my head, but there had been an intervening play and his team had not been harmed by the call at all. He just still wanted to argue.
Experience demonstrates that in playing baseball being stupid is by itself no bar to being great, but Puig demonstrates that being stupid and impulsive probably is.
Carlos Gomez
Most people, including a few in the comments, have pegged Puig all wrong.
Some say his style of play is stupid: not so. He certainly leans to the aggressive side, and playing aggressively will occasionally lead to mistakes a less aggressive player wouldn’t make, but it also adds value when taking an opportunity pays off. He makes some mistakes, but not so many that it would shock you. He has also appreciably cut down on these mistakes since his rookie year.
Some say he plays selfishly: I’m not quite sure what this means in baseball, but it doesn’t jive with his average-to-above career walk rate and his willingness to spray line drives around. Anyone who thinks he is always swinging for the fences hasn’t watched him ever. Anyone who thinks he will always ignore the cutoff man to try to make a highlight throw hasn’t watched him in years. Given how many truly great outfield throws he has made, he ought to take riskier throws than most players, but it’s been a long time since he has made any really egregious attempts.
Performance-wise, his problem the past two years has been largely that he hasn’t adjusted well at the plate against certain strategies. The reason for this, as someone who has watched, is not that he isn’t smart enough or that he doesn’t care enough. It is clearly that he cares too much. You often hear veteran players say they take the season one game at a time, or that you shouldn’t carry your last at bat onto the field. This is where Puig has diverted from the “right way” to play the game. When he fails, he takes it really hard, but making adjustments requires being able to face your weaknesses with confidence.
I’m not going to pretend to know whether he has or will get any better at dealing with failure and adjusting. This year isn’t the first time that I have heard he is more committed to succeeding. However, if he fails, I will feel badly for him, though others will blame him and dismiss him.
I watch him a fair amount, and I agree with most of this. One thing that gets me, though, is the book / adjustment thing. Pitchers threw him inside more than any other player in baseball last year, so there is a book issue. But he also had a 1.086 OPS on pitches inside. Maybe it’s made him really vulnerable on outside pitches later in the count, I dunno. I believe it’s in him to figure it out.
regarding the “when he fails, he takes it really hard” point, isnt there a story of him crying in the locker room in the NLDS/NLCS vs the Cards because he was having a bad series?
i think you’re absolutely right about that. let’s hope he can figure out. 2013/2014 Puig was so much fun.
On a quick search, the only story I can find about Puig crying in the locker room was about Jose Fernandez’s death.
i believe it may have been in molly knights book? maybe im misremembering
Could be! I haven’t read the book.
I generally ascribe 95% of struggles in MLB to, “baseball is really, really hard.” It’s a lot easier than trying to psychoanalyze players from a distance, or trying to make assumptions about how that player’s reactions to certain things affects his confidence, and in turn how that affected confidence affects his performance.
Think it holds true here, too. Puig is struggling because hitting MLB pitching is, like, stupidly difficult, even for guys who are insanely talented and were previously pretty damn good at it. Maybe, despite his earlier showings, he isn’t one of the single-most talented batsmen in the world as we thought he might be initially. As such, maybe the past couple seasons are just the baseline for what his actual ability-to-hit-MLB-pitching is. Edit: Or, maybe he just hasn’t been able to adjust back to pitchers because, again, hitting is really difficult. Maybe he makes those adjustments moving forward.
Or maybe it’s the confidence thing and he’ll return to OPS+ing like 150 this year because he stops caring so much. *shrugs*
“Puig has had his moments, but they pale in comparison to Bradley’s, at least in this writer’s opinion.”
You don’t need to qualify this. It is an obvious fact that Puig has done nothing close to Bradley’s antics in terms of severity.
Matt Kemp-ish?
First, I’d put him up in a really nice suite. The best. Then I’d cover all his meals and make sure he gets his steak cooked just right. Also, I’d have a car waiting for him at all times to show him the sights and then bring him back again. Finally, I’d have a personal valet assigned to him to show him a good time and, most importantly, make sure he spends ample time at the tables.
Beat me to it! Well played.
??? (explanation please)
Bo Jackson
Guerrero with the bat, Bradley with the glove.
tops out as Y. Cespedes, bottoms out as J.Francouer