Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 2/23/17

1:46
Eno Sarris: be right there

12:00
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: If this is how the Internet reacts to intentional walks being removed, I’m afraid of what’s going to happen when the NL gets the DH.

12:00
Eno Sarris: Lots of handwringing, all caps screaming, things of that nature.

12:01
Sandy A.: Any word on how the new ballpark in ATL is gonna play?

12:01
Eno Sarris: I saw that the fences were a few feet shorter in the power alleys but weather is the biggest part of park factors, so about the same I’d guess.

12:01
Black Beard’s Delight: Home sick with a fever of 102, but it’s ENO SARRIS BASEBALL CHAT!!!!!!

12:02
Eno Sarris: whoo-hoo he said as the pile of used tissues around him grew.

12:02
The Duda: What are your thoughts on Correa this year? Think he breaks out like Machado did a couple years ago? Does he have that power potential?

12:03
Eno Sarris: I predicted he would be the best shortstop in baseball based on health and power growth in my ten bold predictions piece, so yeah. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/ten-bold-predictions-for-the-coming-season/

12:03
Pat: How much room for growth do you think Piscotty has? Him for a 24th or Desmond for a 12th as a last keeper in 10tm H2H keep 4

12:04
Eno Sarris: I was looking at his push/pull percentages in the context of aging curves and it looks like his oppo will turn into center field power over time. I think that means his batting average has room for growth, more than his power.

12:04
Erik: The Phillies have money to spend and can afford to take on some risk. Could you see them locking up at least one of Nola/Velasquez/Eickoff to an extension this year? And is it easier to lock up a high-risk guy like Velasquez or low-risk guy like Eickoff?

12:04
Eno Sarris: Ease is always a function of the agent the player and the demands, but I bet the demands are lower for an oft-injured guy like Vince.

12:04
Tommy N: Why did the Padres sign Weaver makes little sense for a team rebuilding could of used those innings to try out younger pitchers, do you have any thoughts on that situation?

12:05
Eno Sarris: I don’t think their young pitchers are ready, and they can manage innings early in the season if they have Weaver. If he recovers anything, he might have some trade value halfway through, if not, they can release him.

12:05
Saul: What changed for Michael Wacha from his debut to his recent performances (velo/movement/pitch usage) and do you plausibly think he can regain his old form?

12:06
Eno Sarris: He regained his old release point last year, which I count as a good thing. He started throwing the cutter a ton last year and it got spanked. I think I’d just ease off the cutter. I’m actually pretty hopeful about him.

12:06
bl27: sell me Blake Snell. Several put him very low in their ranking

12:07
Eno Sarris: Slider was a big deal. Now has four pitches, all pretty to really good by movement and velo. Slider should also be more commandable than the rest of his pitches, and that’s the really big deal for him.

12:07
CarrotJuice: Hosmer is making 12.25mil in 2017. At that price, would you have non-tendered him?

12:07
Eno Sarris: Nah, he can at least be a two-win guy with good batted ball numbers. 1B UZR may not be the very best foot forward for d metrics either.

12:08
Jimmy: I get that Trea Turner is Jesus reincarnated but don’t you think the fantasy hype has gotten a bit out of hand? I can’t help but see his best case as Starling Marte

12:08
Eno Sarris: Plus twenty points of batting average and minus the whole HBP injury factor.

12:09
Black Beard’s Delight: Hey Eno, I see you have Price ranked #10 in your SP ranks. Curious why you like him to rebound after he lost Velo, K/9 dropped in 2nd half, and his ISO against his fastball and curve skyrocketed.

12:12
Eno Sarris: His first half K9 was pumped up by a crazy March, the rest of the year he was basically an 8/2 guy in terms of k/bb and that really works for me. As for the velo, I’m not seeing the same thing. Had a 93 mph fastball in May and a 93 mph fastball in September according to Brooks. I don’t use ISO against for pitch types.

12:12
John: What do you see in Eddie Butlers future and what is his role in 2017?

12:12
Eno Sarris: He’s a minor league seventh or eighth starter, and I hold about a 5-10% hope that he refinds his old changeup (grip?) and actually turns into a good 4/5.

12:13
Jimbo Swanson: What’s your go-to coffee break snack? Are you a pastry guy, muffin, BEC, other sandwich? I’ve lately been absolutely addicted to peanut butter and banana sandwiches

12:13
Eno Sarris: I write about sandwiches and beer and eat baseball food. I don’t want to gain weight, so I don’t drink soda, coffee, eat chips, or have snacks!

12:14
Erik: If a pitcher has one 60, one 50, and one 40 pitch, what pitch would you like each one to be? And would that pitcher benefit from adding another, 30-grade pitch?

12:14
Eno Sarris: If righty, fastball, breaking ball, changeup. And yes.

12:16
Eno Sarris: German hip hop yessss

12:16
Tim: Can Devin Mesoraco be the same hitter he was again? Maybe not in April but later in the year? 2018? How talented is he?

12:17
Eno Sarris: I took a flier on him in a 20-team 25-keeper dynasty, but he’s a wait and see in other formats. I have some hope that a healthy knee is all he needs.

12:18
daneyko: Garrett Richards could be a steal with elbow history. A full season is very possible ?

12:18
Eno Sarris: I think of Masahiro Tanaka.

12:18
Black Beard’s Delight: Wanted to share an article fueling my man crush on Glasnow. http://www.piratesprospects.com/2017/02/first-pitch-the-evolution-of-tyler-glasnows-changeup.html …. He’s loving the new change grip, and in another article from that site, Polanco saw the grip out of the glove but still couldn’t hit it.

12:19
Eno Sarris: This is a very good piece from Tim Williams, yes read it. I think the delivery work is as important as the changeup.

12:19
Johnny B Good: Who will have the better season, Wade Davis or Seung Hwan Oh? How concerned are you about Davis’ health? Does Oh stay the closer the entire year?

12:20
Eno Sarris: Oh is *probably* okay, but he only has about average closer velocity, so he has to keep whiffing people like mad to keep the job. Davis’ injury history makes me worried. Both are second tier closers for those reasons for me. Top tier for closers is pretty crowded right now.

12:21
The Cincinnati Kid: Jake Lamb in Rd 10 in a league that includes OBP and SLG. Keep or re-draft him there? Players go up 1 round each year

12:21
Eno Sarris: Keep.

12:21
J. Peterman: Eno, this is the year. This is THE year. I know, in my heart, that 2017 is when Lucas Duda makes believers out of everyone.

12:22
Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

12:22
fresh basil: Which also happens to fall on two hoagie Thursday.

12:22
Eno Sarris: We can do better.

12:24
Jason: Springer or Buxton/Bellinger in an OBP dynasty?

12:24
Eno Sarris: Springer.

12:25
Erik: Let’s say a team’s 5th starter is a lefty and their 6th is a righty. If they only have one lefty in the bullpen, should they bump the 5th starter back to the pen, or does it not really matter?

12:25
Eno Sarris: You’d think that handedness would matter in that situation, yes.

12:25
Matt: Eno! I’m going to Spring Training next week, but unfortunately, I’ll have to watch the Yanks at away games both days (1 pm starts). Do you know if teams do workouts or anything at home in the mornings? Want to maximize autograph opportunities.

12:26
Eno Sarris: Yeah, usually the team works out at home every day. I have availability around 8-9am even if they are playing away, so I bet around 9am they’re outside.

12:26
GERB: Any post-hype sleeper love for Cody Anderson? Hiding beneath his 6+ ERA was a respectable 3.93 xFIP.

12:27
Eno Sarris: I bought a few shares so far. He’s the sixth starter on a team with injury risk. High spin good velo four-seam. Decent secondary pitches. Enough for me at cheap price.

12:27
natsfan: All of the better value closers are being held (shocking I know). better strategy – pay $25 plus for Chapman/$18 or so for DRob or hold off and bottom feed in the endgame? Thinking the latter

12:27
Eno Sarris: $25 for Chapman or bottom feed. No on Robertson on that price.

12:29
Justin Smoak: Are the Jays really planning to make me the full-time 1B, or will they make a move before opening day?

12:30
Eno Sarris: I think Pompey and Pearce are in play. Those guys can play their way into bigger roles this spring.

12:30
CamdenWarehouse: Am I the only one who feels like the pace of play initiatives coming out of MLB are solutions in search of a problem?

12:30
Eno Sarris: It’s just so funny that they’ll do literally anything except consider cutting one ad a game.

12:31
Neel: How do you rank Fangraphs favorites Healy, Broxton, Santana and Haniger for 2017 and going forward?

12:31
Eno Sarris: Healy Santana Broxton Haniger!

12:31
Matt: I get that there seems to be overreaction to removing the IBB. But is it really overreaction to removing the IBB, or just proper reaction to the MLB addressing a non-issue at the expense (however small) of the fans in the name of addressing something that this doesn’t even effect (it will *not* have any effect on game time).

12:32
Eno Sarris: Yeah I think the actual IBB was just a blip on the screen, not something we’ll miss so badly. But it won’t really help the problem. Which is just so typical.

12:32
Peter Bonerz: Are wild pitchers harder to frame? Wouldn’t catchers who catch guys like Colon or Kershaw have an advantage over one who catches Ubaldo?

12:33
Eno Sarris: Baseball Prospectus’ numbers account for this by calculating a called strikes above average number for the pitcher and the catcher separately.

12:33
CarrotJuice: How much should I tip

12:33
Eno Sarris: 20+% unless they sucked, but never below 10%.

12:33
Connor: Which struggling starter right now would benefit the most becoming a reliever?

12:35
Eno Sarris: Some of the two-pitch guys like Juan Nicasio are obvious. Michael Pineda would be an amazing closer. But! How about this name. Phil Hughes. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/who-needs-a-new-pitch-the-most/

12:35
K: Besides Fangraphs, what publications , i.e. Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus etc., do you find yourself using to get ready for the 2017 season?

12:35
Eno Sarris: None.

12:35
Ron: Kevin Gausman’s Home/Road ERA and FIP splits are pretty drastic and favored towards Camden. What do you see as the cause? Do you see him ever becoming an ace?

12:35
Eno Sarris: I’d call that noise.

12:35
mtsw: Longoria and Pedroia both had unexpectedly great seasons last year. Dead cat bounces on the way to decline, or maybe a sign they can sustain All-Star levels of performance levels further into their 30s than we thought?

12:36
Eno Sarris: If I owned them I’d be selling, especially if I weren’t a contender in my league.

12:36
Mike: Are you investing in Kennys Vargas? With Park out of the way and a clearer path to playing time, he seems like a cheap source of power as a bench/util bat. When I compare his batted ball profile and plate discipline to Sano’s in 2016, there are a lot of similarities with HR/FB% and hard hit rate. While I agree the ceiling is higher for Sano, the avg pick for Sano via NFBC is 116 and Vargas is at 460. That’s a big gap, especially in redraft leagues.

12:36
Eno Sarris: He’s a great sleeper. Big Barrels% guy. Actually doesn’t reach much either. Just has some issues with contact, but not so bad that he can’t play in the bigs.

12:37
Justin: Is Hop Stoopid the most underrated IPA that’s both mass produced and easily available? Had one last night and I think it’s basically a B+ version of Pliny the Elder.

12:38
Eno Sarris: Yeah I often have that one around. Other stalwarts include Just Outstanding from Kern River, and a couple of those rotating Modern times cans.

12:38
ryan: about how fast is the head of a bat typically going at point of impact?

12:39
Eno Sarris: Hunter Pence gets it going around 106, my zepp tells me. I was at 65mph.

@thepainguy I had launch angle too.. weird. my bat vertical angle was alright, but it seems you’re right about atta… twitter.com/i/web/status/7…
9 Oct 2016
12:39
Jon: Would a team of nine Bumgarners beat a team of nine Trouts (assuming Bumgarner pitches against a lineup full of Trout and Trout pitches to a lineup full of Bumgarners, etc.)?

12:39
Eno Sarris: Probably.

12:39
Puig’s Left Bicep: Do you think the next stage of technological advantage (i.e. moneyball ) is in player development? Something like Driveline baseball increasing velocity, etc.

12:39
Eno Sarris: Yes.

12:40
Eno Sarris: Also, minor league coaches. But it’s tough because the best place to get better minor league coaches is college, and college pays better and asks for less travel.

12:40
pH: How concerned are you with Scherzer’s injury? Enough to drop him to #3 SP? Or even further?

12:40
Eno Sarris: Not until he’s not pitching after March 15.

12:40
Ampersand: You can snuff my rough stuff but I will fluff that tough buff

12:40
Steve: Looking back on it, how much of a disaster was the entire 90s expansion?

12:41
Eno Sarris: Man the jerseys alone.

12:41
Ryan: Forgive the nuts+bolts fantasy Q… top players seem to always go for at least 20% over projected cost at auction. Do you “pay up”, or is it not worth it?

12:41
Eno Sarris: I always try to get the cheapest top tier player. There’s usually a $30 guy you can get for $30 instead of paying $45 for a $38.

12:41
Al: When it’s said that sliders break into the swing of opposite handed hitters, is it simply that it breaks towards them? Or is there something more to the path of the bat/ angle of the break/ timing that contributes to platoon splits?

12:42
Eno Sarris: It breaks down and in, which is a wheelhouse for for a lot of lefty swings. I wonder if that’s the case as much these days, where more people have the Harper/Votto swing, which is created to hit the outside pitch. Maybe the platoon splits on sliders is lessening.

12:42
CoachKent: Who is the better pitcher 2 years from now….Urias or Giolito? Long term, same guy?

12:43
Eno Sarris: Urias and no, they won’t be equals later either.

12:43
Nick: Pick one as a late round flyer/extra OF – Herrera, Soler, J. Ramirez

12:43
Eno Sarris: Herrera. SBs hard to find and he should hit enough homers to not be a zero.

12:44
joe pera: Will the A’s be the worst defensive team this year?

12:46
Eno Sarris: Mets could be worse. They’re projected to be minuses at every position save yo and Lagares, who is slated to be a parttimer. Yonder will recover, Imo, talked to him about changing his positioning to fit the park better, and I’m really interested to see what Rajai can do. Well, okay, Mets then A’s.

12:46
Seanto: Some parts of John Lamb’s numbers look like he was insanely unlucky. Think he can be a solid starter in LAA’s rotation?

12:46
Eno Sarris: I like his stuff, but he has minus mound presence and his medicals scared off a ton of teams that could have claimed him.

12:46
Jaff: Who has a better season Jharel Cotton or Tanner Roark?

12:47
Eno Sarris: I saw this asked of another writer, and, well, I disagree. Roark has a bunch of average pitches, I think Cotton has an elite changeup and two average pitches. I’ll take the guy with an elite pitch.

12:47
Ampersand: Whites have their uses but I think blacks are generally superior for just about everything. Reds are OK for chili and green are really their own thing. What’s your favorite bean?

12:47
Eno Sarris: good god the punchline on this one got me. I like a black bean over the rest by far.

12:47
Puig’s Left Bicep: Do you like Brock Stewart this year?

12:48
Eno Sarris: I like his stuff, and he’ll get opportunity, but it might be on the level of, what, 70 IP in the majors at most?

12:48
Puig’s Left Bicep: Do you put any stock into Yasmani Grandal’s weight loss, retooling of right-handed swing, etc. or just a spring training best shape of my life type deal?

12:48
Eno Sarris: A little, if only because he was really good last year, and his shoulder issues have contributed to poor stats in the past.

12:48
Randy Savage: Crucial underrated aspect of a good sandwich: fresh ground black pepper

12:48
Eno Sarris: I almost always have salt and ground pepper on my sandwiches, but forget to report it more than half the time.

12:49
Raindog: What are your thoughts on Bundy this year? Is he the guy who sometimes looked like the stud prospect he used to be? The guy at the end of the season who seemingly got tired and will probably have his arm fall off again? Or just another mid-rotation guy?

12:49
Eno Sarris: Said he’d be an ace in my bold predictions piece. That’s a bold prediction. More likely he’s a 3.75 guy with good Ks, decent BBs, and some ball in play issues.

12:50
Eno Sarris:

12:50
hollywood studio exec: fangraphs the movie has been signed for. you are being played by weird al.

12:50
Aaron: I was listening to a baseball podcast (shout out Make the Padres Great Again) and the hosts talked about Chris Young’s and Carter Capps’s release points being significantly closer to home plate giving batters less time to see/hit their pitches than those of pitchers who throw the same speed. Is this phenomenon true? Is there anyone tracking perceived velocity based on release point?

12:52
Eno Sarris: It’s in the statcast data set. I’ve actually calculated the difference between actual and perceived a couple times, let me see if I can find it. These guys all add about a mph to their pitches, looks like I was looking at starters: Jacob deGrom
Shelby Miller
Eric Surkamp
Michael Wacha
James Shields
CC Sabathia
Sean Manaea
Noah Syndergaard
Danny Duffy
Addison Reed
John Lamb
Nathan Karns

12:52
fresh basil: Give me an A’s starter besides Manea or Cotton that I should spend $1 on.

12:52
Eno Sarris: Triggs.

12:53
JT: I never expected Eno to be a cat person.

12:53
Eno Sarris: I’m literally throwing the kittens away from my workspace as I chat.

12:53
Hector: Eno, would a bad spring training from Harper affect how you draft him? injuries aside, it did seem like pitchers made adjustments against him last year. They’d pitch him away a lot and he couldn’t hit that pitch quite well. He also hit many weak grounders to his pull side. I guess I am trying to find reasons to think highly of him in a draft. Got any?

12:53
Eno Sarris: I’d only be worried if he was talking about injury a lot, and missed time.

12:54
G Money: Every so called expert has Segura regressing a huge amount, even though he will have Dyson in front of him and Cano and Cruz behind him. Outside of his homers continuing, can he still be a .300 hitter and score over 100 runs with 30+ SBs? Seems pretty good to me, what say you?

12:54
Eno Sarris: .275 and 90 and 25 but sure that’s playable in most leagues.

12:55
Eno Sarris:

12:55
pH: My dad is at my house watching my sick kids, and probably reading this chat, just so I could come to work to get paid to read your chat. How dope is that?

12:55
Eno Sarris: love you guys. I send my kids to day care so I can do this stuff.

12:56
Eno Sarris: (and an intense share of my salary goes to their daycare, thanks palo alto)

12:56
Bob: Favorite sour that doesn’t cost the sour premium? Perhaps impossible, but I can’t afford the $20 deuce.

12:56
Eno Sarris: $11 for a small Almanac hoppy sour.

12:56
Eno Sarris: It’s about the same per oz but a smaller outlay.

12:57
Marty: I liked your Tigers prediction but related to that, why are the Angels projected to do well? That pitching…ugh. Is it mostly just Trout pushing it so high? Without him are they a 75-win projected team?

12:58
Eno Sarris: Yeah stars and scrubs looks a little gross without nearly ten wins from one player. I’d say the starting pitching is a little underrated, there are some interesting names there.

12:58
Kyle: Who runs with the Washington closer job?

12:58
Eno Sarris: I like Treinen a lot but I figure Kelley gets first shot.

12:58
Danny Almonte: Put your head in the microwave to save money and get a tan.

12:58
Bob: Are bananas or papayas the lamest fruit?

12:59
Murphy’s Injured Booty : What kind of psychopath doesn’t ever eat snacks. You are a liar, sir.

12:59
Eno Sarris: We did it. Took a whole hour but we did it.

12:59
CamdenWarehouse: Who will lead the majors in 2017 for the slowest home run trot? It’s an open competition for the first time in a while.

12:59
Eno Sarris: Bartolo Colon.

12:59
P: Coffee makes you gain weight? I feel like coffee would pair perfectly with the rest of that diet.

1:00
Eno Sarris: I figure it’s calories. But acid reflux is the real reason I don’t do caffeine.

1:00
Marty: Who are a couple middle relievers with high K/BB rates I should target?

1:02
Eno Sarris: Grant Dayton, Carl Edwards, Matt Bush, Barraclough, Nate Jones, Juan Nicasio, Brad Boxberger, Hector Neris, Matt Strahm.

1:02
Tophsolo: Are you confident enough in Darvish this year to make him your SP 1? His current ADP looks like a steal

1:02
Eno Sarris: Yes.

1:02
Paulie Walnuts: Hey Eno, there is some buzz from A’s camp about Jesse Hahn being an outside rotation candidate. Do you think he can bounce back to his former level? If not, what do you see for him going forward? Thanks

1:03
Eno Sarris: He had the best velo of his career last season, I think it killed his command. I’ve always liked his high spin curve, and I think if he just throws his changeup hard, it’ll do well too. I like him, I just think Triggs gets first shot.

1:03
Danny Almonte: I teach high school and one of my students just prefaced a question, dead serious, with, “so you know how all Canadians and Russians are color blind…”

1:04
Wil Myers: Over/under 30HR/90RBI/20SB?

1:04
Eno Sarris: Under.

1:04
PHus: Multiple articles this morning say Story should outperform his Steamer projections (specifically HRs). Pod projections cite FB%, xHR/FB, and Brls/BBE as reasons why he should hover around 30HR. xFantasy claimed he should be closer to 40HR and he should be part of the upper tier of fantasy SS. Do you buy the power, or do you side with Steamer?

1:04
Eno Sarris: I’ve bought in.

1:04
CamdenWarehouse: Did you hear about the spin article bet? Are you going to throw it to one side or the other?

1:04
Eno Sarris: I’m actually going to try and un-hear it and see what happens lol.

1:05
CarrotJuice: Do you believe the “closer” mentality is a real thing?

1:05
Eno Sarris: No.

1:05
Bryce: What do you think about Erod for the sox? After pitch-tipping in 2015 and injury last year, does he have a serious future as middle of the rotation type guy.

1:05
Eno Sarris: Hurt his knee again so I’m a little skeptical this is his year.

1:05
Buff: BP ranks Raimel Tapia as the #13 dynasty prospect. Are you down with that, or is that a reach?

1:06
Eno Sarris: Not at all down with it. Don’t believe in the power, the two-strike approach seems crazy, not sure he’s a center fielder, has CF type bat.

1:06
RickyD: Is there a more vexing pitcher this year than Robbie Ray? ERA/WHIP are god-awful, but that K rate is oh so sexy. You have him #42. Are you thinking he gets luckier this year and/or somehow improves his command?

1:07
Eno Sarris: See him hanging out a lot with the Unit, that could be huge. He was bad the third time through the order… but a curve, a show-me change, better command, there are a few ways he can figure this out.

1:07
Erik: It’s so obvious as a fan that ads are the sole source of pace of play issues. But the MLB would never sacrifice money in order to make the game more watchable. What needs to happen for the league to decide to do that?

1:07
Eno Sarris: Ads on the uniforms? Are you willing to go there?

1:07
Robert Frey: What will you be discussing at the SABR Analytics conference?

1:08
Eno Sarris: Pitching metrics, but I think it’s a whole metrics panel.

1:08
7 Liner: I feel like there’s a bigger issue than of pace of play. Do you feel that the game has less action in it regardless of the total length? Baseball is moving towards a game that’s more of a pitcher/hitter showdown with the shifts and all or nothing hitting approach. Do you agree?

1:09
Eno Sarris: There are fewer balls in play, so that’s why they’re talking about changing the zone. I was very anti changing the zone, but I’m thinking about it. I might change on that. It’s true that the zone didn’t use to be this low.

1:09
Matt: Below 10% is OK if you can see them spitting in your food as they walk over.

1:09
Eno Sarris: well sure

1:09
Shawn: Rank these mustards: Whole Grain, Dijon, Yellow, Honey, Spicy Brown

1:09
Eno Sarris: Whole Grain, Dijon, Spicy Brown, Honey…………Yellow.

1:10
Mark: Long time, 1st time: With a rotation of Arrieta, Thor, DeGrom, Price, Hill & E-Rod, would you rather have Cueto or Carrasco & G Cole?

1:10
Eno Sarris: you have a lot of variance and a lot of ceiling, I’d take Cueto’s floor, which might be top three in the game.

1:10
Keith Hernandez: Eno! Was watching Bill Geivett last night on MLB Network last night promoting his new book, “Do You Want to Work In Baseball?” What would be the number one skill I need to work in baseball analytics?

1:11
Eno Sarris: He said regression theory, but they’re past that. I think you need to be able to do machine learning and more advanced mixed modeling.

1:11
Jeff: With risk and question marks throughout the SP group, are you more likely to carry a higher risk profile at the position than year’s past and go for the moon with upside?

1:11
Eno Sarris: Go big or go home anyway, and there are like about 32 pitchers I want without qualifications and then a whole bunch of “maybe!”

1:11
Timmy: How do you gauge consistency – just look at month by month numbers? I want to avoid major up and down issues in my H2H league.

1:12
Eno Sarris: K%

1:12
Marty: Which players’ value changes the most in a league that penalizes hitters’ Ks?

1:12
Eno Sarris: Chris Davis? Chris Carter?

1:12
davels: Is Pliny the Younger really worth $10 a glass?

1:12
Eno Sarris: Once, sure.

1:12
HatesNewThings: Back in my day, you had to earn your right to walk someone intentionally. Nowadays, you just point to first base where the batter can collect his free hugs and participation trophy.

1:12
Tyler : Are pitch framing metrics involved in determining FIP xFIP etc.?

1:13
Eno Sarris: No.

1:13
John W.: This season only: Kevin Kiermaier or Keon Broxton in an OBP league.

1:13
Eno Sarris: Hey I’m taking Eyes here. KK and Broxton both projected to be meh in OBP, but there’s less risk in KK’s approach, IMO.

1:14
Alan: You’re obvious high on Fulmer’s changeup. Will his strikeouts move up this year because of it? Any early K/9 prediction for him?

1:14
Eno Sarris: I’ll give him 8.5+. Three plus pitches.

1:14
Beer: What’s your favorite super widely distributed craft beer (as common as fat tire, say)?

1:15
Eno Sarris: Firestone Walker Easy Jack. Lagunitas IPA.

1:15
Maverik312: Re: Breaking into hands
It’s easier to recognize a ball coming closer to you AND, perhaps more importantly, it’s easier/faster to adjust your hands closer to the axis of rotation (your body) rather than reach away from the axis

1:15
P.Davidson: Robert Stephenson isn’t going to amount to a hill of beans, is he?

1:16
Eno Sarris: I don’t have a ton of hope, but he does have velo and that’s a good place to start.

1:17
Hunky Dory: Hey, I asked Dave this and he just condescended to me w/o an answer. If a cutter breaks glove-side, like a slider, and a sinker breaks arm-side, why is the cutter a “third pitch” to combat oppo hitters? Is it me? What am I not getting here?

1:19
Eno Sarris: It’s actually the interplay of the two. The Pirates found that pitching inside before a pitch outside increases the efficacy of the pitch outside. But if you throw a sinker inside without nailing the front-door aspect of it, it’ll drift over the middle and be murdered. The cutter gives you something that you can put on the inside corner before you go sinker away. And it’s a fastball velocity, and it doesn’t drop like a slider into a hittable low and in spot. The cutter is the pitch for that up and in spot that nobody can hit.

1:19
Matt: Salt and ground pepper sandwich? Sounds great!

1:19
Eno Sarris: Well you have to put the cucumber and capicolla and soppresata and gruyere around the salt and pepper.

1:19
Big Timer: What are you expecting out of Harvey this season? Seems motivated and from little video available he seems to be throwing pretty well.

1:19
Eno Sarris: I’d take him as a second or third pitcher, could be an ace.

1:20
Sonny: Dylan Bundy was supposed to be immune from injury or exhaustion because his dad made him split logs everyday. Parenting!

1:20
Eno Sarris: We get it mostly wrong and somehow the kids turn out allright.

1:20
Toki: What kind of production we legitimately expect from Ryu this season? and innings wise? 100 < innings?

1:20
Eno Sarris: He’s throwing in the mid 80s. I’m not sure if we see that many if that’s what he’s throwing in a few weeks.

1:20
Big Timer: You put that Finnegan becomes the frontline ace the Reds have been searching for in your bold predictions piece. How confident are you in this prediction since it was #9 on the list I think.

1:21
Eno Sarris: They aren’t ranked by confidence. I aim for about 30% confidence, since I hit on 3/10.

1:21
CamdenWarehouse: If you’re throwing away kittens, I guess you’re not a cat person

1:21
Eno Sarris: Well not in the trash. Away from my area. Now he’s asleep on my feet.

1:22
Sonny: Eno Sarris: Kitten Thrower

1:22
Pipater: What is your take on Inciarte this year and his comparison to Odubel Herrera…

1:22
Eno Sarris: if Inciarte is cheaper, giddyap.

1:22
bombsquad rabbi: Eno Sarris: Women wanted him, men wanted to be him, geese remained skeptical

1:22
The Hamburglar: Going to make it down to Atlanta for the Braves new stadium? Hoping for some good beer/food recommendations once you do!

1:22
Eno Sarris: Yeah I want to go. Lived in Atlanta for seven years.

1:22
Jerry DiPoto: Just a FYI – The best IPA I’ve EVER had is out of Yakima, WA – The brewery is called Bale Breaker, and the IPA is called Topcutter – Ever had this? It is hoppy and delicious

1:22
Eno Sarris: I’ve had that brewery and they are good. Not that beer.

1:23
JT: Best places for beers in Palo Alto (bars and shops)?

1:24
Eno Sarris: Rose and Crown is the only bar, really. Avoid the Palo Alto brewery stuff and try the rest. Best shops are not in PA — Willows Market in Menlo Park is decently close though. BevMo and Jane’s are 15 minutes south on El Camino.

1:24
bombsquad rabbi: YOU CAN’T BUY HOT POCKETS ONLY COLD POCKETS YOU ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPLY THE HEAT YOURSELF DON’T BELIEVE THE LIES OF “BIG POCKET”

1:24
Pipater: Do you see Ryon Healy able to hit +20 hrs and carry a .280 avg?

1:24
Eno Sarris: yes

1:24
Ben: Any suggestions on sours to look out for in the Atlanta area? I’m getting a bit burnt out on what I’ve been drinking lately and have loved all of the sours I’ve had, albeit very few. Kind of don’t know where to begin.

1:24
Eno Sarris: You should be able to find the sour sisters from Goose Island — Halia, Juliette, Madame Rose — but they’re pretty expensive. Rodenbacher Grand Cru is less expensive but also more mello.

1:25
Eno Sarris:

1:25
Matt: If Trever Baur bought a skyscrapper, and we played drinking games in it, we could play the Bauer Tower Power Hour.

1:25
Guest: Thoughts on Christian Arroyo? ETA/long term position/your views on production?

1:26
Eno Sarris: I could see him coming up and being very Matt Duffy.

1:26
dog: Top 5 favorite ballparks to attend a game at?

1:27
Eno Sarris: AT&T, PetCo, Camden, Citi, Wrigley (despite the beer). I have only been to 16 current I think.

1:27
Phantastic: Chatwoods home/away splits are unbelievable, even considering he calls Coors home. The physics says the thin air should affect certain pitches and spin rates more than others, but is there any data to support that? I don’t know where to look.

1:28
Eno Sarris: I have a piece with Jhoulys Chacin about his curveball where I looked at movement on pitches, and for sure breaking balls break less and sinkers sink less. I think I’d go 4s/SL/FS if I was trying to make Coors work for me.

1:28
Murphy’s Injured Booty : RE: Bob. There is a direct correlation between the number of As in a fruit’s name and its lameness. You can read more about it on FruitGraphs

1:28
Josiah: Should I tip for take out? I’m already paying for the food. Do I need to tip for them handing me a bag of food?

1:28
Eno Sarris: Man, I do because the pay sucks, but I do think this sometimes.

1:29
natsfan: When playing in a 10-man only league it becomes that much more important to go get the superstar players, not less because replacement value is higher, correct?

1:29
Eno Sarris: Yeah I think I bought Trout for $60 in a ten-teamer last year.

1:29
Murphy’s Injured Booty : Manuel Margot hits leadoff, .275, 40 sbs. Yay or nay

1:29
Eno Sarris: Not all year so the 40 is tough.

1:29
CamdenWarehouse: How about a corner ad on the TV during the between pitch time?

1:30
Eno Sarris: Soccer style! We’ve got it!

1:30
ZG: Do you know if useful spin is included in Statcast data? they have a line called ‘release_spin_rate’ and ‘spin_rate.’ Been trying to figure it out for a little while now

1:30
Eno Sarris: don’t use the one without release in it. That’s old, PFx. No useful spin in their data.

1:31
Erik: There are already ads all over the stadium. Why can’t that be enough?

1:31
Eno Sarris: Once advertisers have something they aren’t going to give it back. Or: once the owners have some money, they’re never going to take less.

1:31
LudeBurger: rank these outputs: gas, alphabet burp, poopy, input, milk out of the eye

1:31
roger: Do u have nightmares over Shin Soo Choo’s soft body?

1:31
Eno Sarris: wouldn’t it be more of a pillow like dream or

1:32
LudeBurger: rank these numbers: 1, 2, 3, 4

1:32
Eno Sarris: 2, 3, 4, 1

1:32
Matt: Projections seem to love Tyler Skaggs this year, and I know you ranked him (relatively) highly. What do you see as a best-case scenario for him? Potential breakout season?

1:33
Eno Sarris: Those projections are crazy. I think they’re too good. He’s not a great command guy even if he has a couple good pitches, and even though he struck everyone out in the minors last year, that didn’t really translate to the bigs.

1:33
Shawn: Can tastebuds become “worn out” to IPAs, where they start to taste differently than they did before?

1:33
Eno Sarris: Yeah I usually alternate IPAs and saisons and sours to manage palate fatigue. The hops will burn you out.

1:33
Erik: What about a philosophy degree instead of knowledge of machine learning? Do any analytics departments need someone to wonder whether baseball exists?

1:34
Eno Sarris: this is funny, but there is probably room for someone to have a psychology degree or the like, and come in there and help the team communicate, from the front office, to the players, to the development group.

1:35
Guest: If you had to pick one closer to build your bullpen around for now and the future, who would you choose?

1:35
Eno Sarris: I’d like a young one like Edwin Diaz, wait don’t take that out of context.

1:35
Matt: As a baseball addict, I’m embarrassed that I don’t know the origination of the KK’s Green Eyes bit.

1:36
Eno Sarris: He has lovely eyes, and he told me he can see the catcher’s signs from center.

1:36
natsfan: What is the most underrated beer city?

1:36
Eno Sarris: Austin? Boston?

1:36
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: What 80-grade pitch is the most fun to watch? Fastball? 12-6 curve?

1:37
Eno Sarris: I think it’s a changeup for me. It seems unnatural to release a pitch and see it fade and plummet.

1:37
Peter Bonerz: So ads on the unis but commercials are significantly decreased? I think I’d accept that

1:37
Eno Sarris: But not just ads on the unis without some give, because that’s crap.

1:37
Luke: My son sleeps on my feet sometimes, but I would let him sleep anywhere as long as he sleeps.

1:37
Navin R. Johnson: Hey, I gave money to a charity to stop people like you from juggling cats. Knock that off!

1:38
Harangutan: Can Finnegan last long enough into games to be an ace?

1:38
Eno Sarris: How long does he have to last in order to be the best starter on the Reds.

1:38
Lee: Cucumber on Italian cold cuts? Gruyere not a good stinky provolone?

1:38
Eno Sarris: I’m weird, stick around.

1:39
Art Vandelay: corner ads exist already with all the sponsored stats and pitch trackers, Speedee oil change pitching change, etc.

1:40
Eno Sarris: Ah right, that’s true. You stop seeing things after a while.

1:40
pH: “And this next pitch is brought to you by Tampax”

1:40
Travis: Favorite Jester King Beer out of Austin?

1:40
Eno Sarris: RU55?

1:40
CamdenWarehouse: You put a non-prime number over 1?!

1:40
Eno Sarris: It’s the loneliest number.

1:40
Jonny: What do you think of tired hands? Super experimental, delicious milkshakes, solid IPAs and DIPAs. Why not more love?

1:41
Eno Sarris: Small distribution area, don’t bottle or can a ton so hard to trade, not in a huge metro area. But people inside beer love them.

1:41
Robin: First game you think you’ll see this year and how many in a season do you attend?

1:44
Eno Sarris: I’ll go to a game March 4th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and maybe 9th, and then I’ll attend two a week once the season starts, plus three or four with the family for fun, plus maybe some All-Star stuff again, plus, on average, two to four post-season games. So I’d guess I’ll go to around 60 games this year.

1:44
Jumbotron: Other Half is releasing All Citra Everything on Sat, you want some?

1:44
Eno Sarris: yes.

1:44
Czechyourself: In Prague, beer recommendations?

1:44
Eno Sarris: The local pils. Sorry, but that’s probably v excellent.

1:45
Sonny: love saisons but man the variance on that style. a bad one is just damn undrinkable

1:46
Eno Sarris: yeah there are probably four or five different archetypes and the average drinker probably hates one or two of them. I probably only hate one style of saison, so I’m fairly safe with them.

1:47
Smart GM: Any theory that some teams do not put in their best pitcher to be used in saves situations, so that it will cost the team less money? Relievers only seem to make money once they earn a healthy amount of saves.

1:47
Eno Sarris: Yeah we’ve written about it a ton. Teams claim they don’t do it, but I’m not sure I believe that no team does it.

1:48
Big Tuna: Using FanGraphs Auction calculator and switching to my league’s OPS settings, it came back with Gary Sanchez 11th overall, Rougned Odor 15th, and Eric Thames 27th. Those are all way too high, no? I can’t see a way to draft those guys at those spots.

1:48
Eno Sarris: Look at their projections and you’ll see why. You can disagree with the projections, of course, but Thames’ projections are nutty.

1:48
bearproof: At some point the American beer pendulum is going to hop it’s self out and swing back the other way. Any predictions on which style it will swing back to?

1:49
Eno Sarris: We’re already seeing more pilsners and session IPAs, and we’re even seeing the NEIPA in the iPA category, which has a poop ton of hops in it but not the same bitterness.

1:49
Eckstein123: Fav Utah beer?

1:49
Eno Sarris: Uinta?

1:49
HappyFunBall: I put cucumber on a sandwich once out of desperation when I ran out of lettuce. It was glorious!

1:49
Eno Sarris: They are really underrated.

1:49
PL: If you haven’t checked out Faction in Alameda it’s worth it. Amazing views of the city and, well, beer of course.

1:49
Eno Sarris: Agreed.

1:50
Maverik312: I’m no pro, but Shelby Miller doesn’t seem that confusing. In 2012 and 2013 he had great peripherals and results. Since then, they’ve been not as great. His pitch mix has DRASTICALLY changed to the point where you can see an EASY correlation (not causation, but worth an investigation). Why not use the CU and CH like he used to? Using the CT more sparingly and go back to a four seamer only instead of a two seamer?

1:50
Eno Sarris: Agreed. He has that ride, he should be using the 4S/CU and the splitter grip. He got spooked. I think he can be decent again.

1:50
Marty: Saison lovers should go to Oxbow in Portland. They are doing fun things. Also, they have Wu Tang Wednesdays with kung fu movies on

1:51
je: How Would I Comp Yasiel Puig?

very carefully…

1:51
Jake: Boo the people that ask the same question over multiple different chats.

1:51
Eno Sarris: Well, if it’s an interesting one, it might be sorta cool to compile the ones that got the most varied answers.

1:51
Hunky Dory: Yankees signed Miller and just signed Chapman (the only RP alive better than Betances) to avoid giving him saves…so they could screw him to the wall as Levine just did.

1:51
Eno Sarris: Hard to not see this as happening in a bunch of places.

1:51
Snarfle: If you think the Rockies have it bad, try being the Lunaris Moonbeams who will have to develop pitchers in reduced gravity.

1:52
Peter Bonerz: Maryland beer?

1:52
Eno Sarris: Union Double Duckpin

1:52
Andy: Toppling Goliath just released a batch of King Sue that is quite literally, life changing. Have you tried the King yet?

1:52
Eno Sarris: NO I WANT. Also, it might be at city beer store because they’re distroing here a bit.

1:52
PL: I’m gonna be at the MIT Analytics Conference next weekend, and as someone looking to get into the industry, how can I best spend my time there?

1:52
Eno Sarris: Go watch my homeboy Matt Dennewitz talk about scraping for sports stats.

1:53
Eno Sarris: Also, the case competitions are interesting. Often flawed research that could be improved upon.

1:53
holybartender: Thoughts on Holy Mountain out of Seattle?

1:53
Eno Sarris: giddyap.

1:53
Steed Throbnozzle: Devenski wasn’t on your list of middle relievers with high K/BB rates…maybe because he will start?

1:53
Eno Sarris: I’d start him myself.

1:54
Eno Sarris: oh man I got stuff to do! thanks for hanging out!

We hoped you liked reading Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 2/23/17 by Eno Sarris!

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With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.

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